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Why the Euro falls and how long it will last 9/28/2016 For those looking for key market triggers, we suggest to keep an eye on Draghi’s and Yellen’s speeches later this day. Although neither of them are supposed to spend all their time on the interpretation of their monetary policies, there is a great possibility that these events will create a certain stir in the markets. Especially when the Fed is going to raise its interest rates this year and the ECB is determined to turn to its QE measures once again. Beyond the aforementioned events, don’t forget about the Industrial and consumer confidence figures coming on Thursday. There might be a slight drop which may negatively affect the EUR. There will be another release on Friday – Eurozone Unemployment rate, which also doesn’t promise any improvements of the EUR exchange rate. So, we recommend you to protect your shares in portfolio ahead of this key releases. The euro sank to $1.1218 from Monday's peak of $1.1279 as stock and bond prices in Deutsche Bank dropped to their record lows on worries regarding a $14 billion fine from the US Department of Justice. Meanwhile, it is impossible to project how future data will influence the quotes or how the current market picture will respond to the Drahi’s speech and releases. We wouldn’t recommend to gamble on the euro improvement in a short term, when the Eurozone is struggling to go round of the potential pitfalls. But in perspective, especially if the ECB decides to embrace the Japanese yield targeting and there is no expansion of the QE in December, the Euro will appreciate again. On the EUR/USD daily chart, we can observe the euro’s decline since Monday. There is a support line at 1,118 which can be broken out and strengthen the downward movement of the euro, if Yellen sounds hawkish at today’s meeting. The resistance line lies at (the 50% Fibonacci More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10664

USD/JPY: rising to the Cloud 9/28/2016 Technical levels: support – 100.60; resistance – 100.90, 101.40. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 100.60/70; SL — 100.40; TP1 — 101.40. Reason: a bearish Ichimoku Cloud and the horizontal lines of Indicator; the prices are over Kijun-sen. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10663

GBP/USD: correction is completed 9/28/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.2940; resistance – 1.3010. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 1.3000; SL — 1.3020; TP1 — 1.2940; TP2 — 1.2910. Reason: a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a bearish Ichimoku Cloud; the prices are under the resistance of Kijun-sen and Senkou Span A. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10662

EUR/USD: bulls have failed 9/28/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.1190, 1.1170; resistance – 1.1210/30 Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 1.1210; SL — 1.1230; TP1 — 1.1170; TP2 – 1.1130. Reason: a cancelled golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and the lines are falling down; narrowing bullish Ichimoku Cloud. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10661

USD/JPY: events and levels to watch 9/28/2016 USD/JPY was supported this week by the levels just above the key psychological level of 100.00 yen, but stayed below 101.00 on the upside. On the one hand, US data released on Tuesday were positive: consumer confidence improved and flash services PMI exceeded expectations. In addition, Japanese players bought US currency ahead of Japan’s September 30 interim book closing for the fiscal year. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve’s Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer limited the greenback’s recovery by saying on Tuesday that the Fed shouldn’t raise interest rates too much. On Wednesday we’ll hear more from the US central bank: Chair Janet Yellen will testify before a Congressional committee, though she’s expected to speak mainly about financial regulation. Speeches of other FOMC members are scheduled today as well: Loretta Mester, Esther George, James Bullard (voting members) and Charles Evans, Neel Kashkar (don’t vote on the Fed’s policy this year). According to Barclays, we’ll hear hawkish comments from Mester and George, while Evans should be dovish. Bullard is not expected to make comments on monetary policy. If USD/JPY slides below 100.00, we’ll likely see it touch 99.00. Note that in this case Japanese officials will try verbal interventions to support the pair. More sellers should appear if the bulls attempt to get to 102.00 (2016 resistance line). Goldman Sachs notes that USD/JPY is now close to its fair value. As a result, the pair needs strong drivers to leave the current range. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10660

EUR/USD: wave [c] of E is about to start 9/28/2016 We’ve got a possible triangle in wave (Y), which is likely going to be continued. So, there’s an opportunity to have wave [c] of E in the short term. The main intraday target is 6/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200), which could reverse the price movement into a bearish direction. As we can see on the one-hour chart, wave was probably ended yesterday. Previously, we’ve got a bullish impulse in wave [a]. Therefore, bulls are likely going to deliver wave [c] of E, so we can have a new high very soon. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10658

GBP/USD: "Triple Bottom" set up bullish correction 9/28/2016 The price is consolidating above the uptrend. Also, we’ve got a “Triple Bottom” pattern, which has been confirmed. At the same time, the price faced a resistance at 1.3022, so bears are likely going to get a support at 1.2979 in the short term. If we have a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to see a bullish price movement towards the nearest resistance at 1.3089 – 1.3115. There’s a “Flag” pattern, so the price is likely going to reach the 89 Moving Average during the day. Meanwhile, if we see a pullback from this line, there’ll be an open door for an achievement of the 34 Moving Average. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10655

EUR/USD: "Flag" points to new local high 9/28/2016 There’s a “Double Top” pattern, which has been confirmed. The price faced a support at 1.1196, which led to a local consolidation. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the next support at 1.1181. If a pullback form this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to see an upward movement in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.1256, which is strengthened by the bearish trend line. We’ve got a “Flag” pattern under the Moving Averages. So, bulls are likely going to get a resistance at 1.1228 during the day. However, if a pullback from this level arrives, bears will probably try to achieve a support at 1.1190 – 1.1180. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10654

Gold: bears are strengthening their positions 9/28/2016 On the daily chart of gold, quotes for the third time in this month returned to the lower boundary of the consolidation (to the range of $1315-1365). This time, it coincides with the lower boundary of the rising trade channel. This increases the risks of the collapse in prices, if bears' attack is successful. On the hourly chart of gold, there is an expanding wedge pattern. Rise of quotes to 23.8% (1329), 38.2% (1331.6), 50% (1,333.6) and 61.8% (1,335.7) levels from the 4-5 wave is usually used for opening short positions. Recommendations: SELL 1331 SL 1336.5 TP1 1316 TP2 1300 SELL 1334 SL 1339.5 TP1 1316 TP2 1300 SELL 1335 SL 1340.5 TP1 1316 TP2 1300 More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10653

GBP/USD: the pound will change the picture considerably 9/28/2016 On the GBP/USD daily chart, there are prerequisites for breaking the "bearish" trend. Quotes lie in the vicinity of the upper boundary of the descending trade channel. A successful attack of the diagonal resistance line and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the last bearish wave will activate a "Shark" reversal pattern. Its 88.6% target corresponds to the 1,325 mark. On the GBP/USD hourly chart, the breakout of the 1,304 resistance level will be a good signal of the "bull" attack. If the pound manages to consolidate above 1.3116, the quotes might continue to rise towards the 1,325 level. Recommendation: BUY 1,304 SL 1,2985 TP1 1,3115 TP2 1,318 TP3 1,325 GBP More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10652

Deutsche Bank may drown European markets 9/28/2016 Deutsche Bank shares lost more than 7.5% to €10.55 on Monday reaching their lowest level since 1983. The bank’s senior executives hurried to reassure investors it has enough money to cover a multibillion-dollar fine for alleged mis-selling of the bonds in the period before the 2008 crisis. Never the less, Deutsche Bank will unlikely cope with mounting financial problems without government support. Since the beginning of this year the bank's shares fell by more than 50%. Its bonds have dropped as well. Deutsche Bank risks facing a shortage of capital. From early 2016 Deutsche Bank was struggling to cuts costs and restore profitability, but as legal challenges have mounted and the fine has appeared on the table, investors’ sentiment has knocked out. Before the decade of crisis (the global financial crisis, the European sovereign debt crisis), Deutsche could have written out this ill-fated cheque with a nonchalant smug and not to lose the trust of its clients, but now nobody is sure where it can get the money from. If the German Government doesn’t meddle in with its rescue, a huge banking crisis will burst out. That, in turn, will cripple the European largest economy, blow the Italian banking system, and French and Spanish banks will be next. Add to this the impact of Brexit, and you will get a full house. With this scenario, it is not surprising that the markets are facing the tremendous decline in the DB’s share price. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10651

EUR/USD & Yellen's Speech: Where are the Euro's bulls? 9/28/2016 Today at 14:00 GMT will speak the Fed's Chairwoman Janet Yellen, which is one of two speeches that she'll hold during this week. Yellen is expected to talk about interest rates' strategy by the central bank and it can bring some volatility to the markets in today's early American session. It's worth noting that the markets are still digesting the US presidential debate, but the effect should last for the short-term only (this week at least). Our technical picture for EUR/USD at H4 chart is showing a solid support at the 1.1196 level, where the bulls are trying to push higher in order to validate the dynamic bottom offered by the 200 SMA. If that happens and Yellen remains with her rhetoric, then it could test the resistance level of 1.1262 once again, while a slightly hawkish's speech can produce a lower breakout below the 1.1196 level, with the nearest target placed at the 1.1147 zone. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10650

EUR/USD: under the SSB resistance 9/26/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.1220, 1.1190; resistance – 1.1240. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.1220; SL — 1.1200; TP1 — 1.1270; TP2 – 1.1300. Reason: a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and narrowing bearish Ichimoku Cloud. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10614

USD/JPY: bears don't hurry to consolidate their gains 9/26/2016 On the USD/JPY daily chart, after the 88.6% target in the Bat pattern had been reached, there was a rebound. At the present time, there is a consolidation in the range of 100,55-101,35 (61,8-78,6% Fibonacci from the XA wave). If the yen goes beyond this limits, it will determine the direction of further movement. On the USD/ JPY hourly chart, quotes are moving within the descending short-term channel. The tendency is still "bearish". If the sellers return to the support at 100.55 level and test it successfully, the risks of attaking the 98 level will increase. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10612

AUD/USD: Aussie is ready to go up 9/26/2016 On the AUD/USD daily chart, quotes are moving within the medium-term rising channel. At the end of the last week, the "bulls" failed to break through the 0.767 resistance line. However, if they manage to do so in the future, the upward trend will continue up to the 0,78 level. There is a Target 113% of the Shark reversal pattern. Alternatively, if the buyers fail to keep the quotes below the 0.761 support line, the Australian dollar may fall down to the 0,752 level. On the AUD/USD hourly chart, the breakout of the 0,767resistance line will become the signal of the end of the downward short-term trend. Recommendation: BUY 0,767 SL 0,7615 TP 0,78. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10611

EUR/USD & Draghi's testimony at European Parliament: 1.1300 on the cards? 9/26/2016 Today at 14:00 GMT, ECB's President Mario Draghi will testify at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of European Parliament and markets are expecting volatility during his speech, because topics of inflation and QE may be discussed by the central bank's head. However, following Draghi's style, it might bring no hints about further steps on ECB's monetary policies and it can't produce the volatility that we expect. Our technical view for EUR/USD at H4 chart is still showing a big sideways range, where the pair has been trapped since August. The resistance zone of 1.1246 is still strong and it might help to strengthen the overall bearish structure of EUR/USD (showed since August 18th). If Draghi's words are dovish, we can expect a breakout below the 1.1195 level, with the nearest target placed at the 1.1129 zone. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10610

UK economy after Brexit vote and GBP/USD forecasts 9/23/2016 Elections, upheavals among citizens, strikes, coup d’Etat can wreak havoc on a currency. And the Brexit referendum is an indisputable confirmation of this tendency. Nobody expected that UK people will vote to leave the EU, and there it was – a clap of thunder – they did it. The pound plummeted from its highs responding to this unexpected turn of events. In most situations, however, the dust settles and currencies return to their pre-crisis rates and adjust to the country's economic growth prospects. Let’s look at the UK economy and try to define the GBP follows this pattern. So far, since the “Black Thursday” of June 23, there is no sign of ruin in the UK real economy. Moreover, the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) believes that it will grow at 1,8 % this year. Right after the referendum many economists drew a rather gloomy picture of the UK future. They tried to convince us that the “Brexit” would lead to a sell-off of assets, that purchasing power of British people would be distorted; that business confidence would disappear. Investment banks, including Barclays and Credit Suisse, even predicted the economy would shrink significantly in 2017. Yet that has not really come true – business confidence is gradually recovering, although investments did fall since the thrice-cursed referendum; and consumers spend as enthusiastically as they used to. Now, let’s look at the technical picture and define what is happening with pound after these rattling events. As we see there is a strong downward trend on the daily chart since June, but there is a glimpse of hope for the GBP resurrection. Due to the economic recovery, it managed to slow down its fall and found several supports at 1, 279, 1,286 and 1,294 levels. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10596

EUR/USD: zigzag in wave E going to be continued 9/23/2016 There’s a possible zigzag in wave E of (Y), which is taking place on the four-hours chart. So, it’s likely that bulls are going to deliver wave [c] in the short term. The main intraday target is 5/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200). If we see a pullback from it, there’ll be an opportunity to have wave E ended. As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a bullish impulse in wave [a]. Also, we’ve got a zigzag in wave , which highlights a possibility to have another bullish impulse in wave [c] of E. If a pullback from +2/8 MM Level happens, bears will probably try to return into the market. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10595

GBP/USD: "V-Top" led to bearish correction 99/23/2016 Bulls faced a resistance at 1.3115, which led to form a “V-Top” pattern, so the price is declining. In this case, it’s likely that the pair is going to reach a support at 1.2995 shortly. However, if a pullback from this support be on the table, there’ll be a chance to see an upward movement in the direction of the 34 Moving Average. There’s a “V-Top” pattern, which led to decline towards a support at 1.3033. Therefore, bears are likely going to achieve the next support at 1.3019 – 1.2995. Considering a possible pullback from this area, bulls will probably try to deliver an achievement of the nearest resistance at 1.3115 – 1.3137. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10594

EUR/USD: "Double Top" stopped bulls for a while 9/23/2016 There’s a “V-Top” pattern, which led to decline towards the Moving Averages. So, the market is likely going to get a support at 1.1165 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another upward movement, so we should keep an eye on the nearest resistance at 1.1256 as a possible intraday target. https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/10593/23-9-2016-EUR-H1-3.jpg[/img] We’ve got a “Double Top” pattern, which has been confirmed. Therefore, bears are likely going to deliver an achievement of the nearest support at 1.1168 during the day. At the same time, if we see a pullback from this level, bulls will probably try to catch a resistance at 1.1241 – 1.1260. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10593

USD/JPY: the correction complete 9/23/2016 Technical levels: support – 100.30; resistance – 101.20/40. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 101.00; SL — 101.20; TP1 — 100.60; TP2 — 100.10. Reason: a bearish Ichimoku Cloud and falling down SSA; a new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; falling Tenkan-sen. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10591

AUD/USD: heavy zone on 0.7670 9/23/2016 Technical levels: support – 0.7620, 0.7600; resistance – 0.7670. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 0.7620; SL — 0.7600; TP1 — 0.7670; TP2 — 0.7700. Reason: a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a bullish Ichimoku Cloud and a rising Senkou Span A; but still an overbought market. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10590

GBP/USD: going to the Cloud 9/23/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.3020/30; resistance – 1.3100, 1.3190. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.3020/30; SL — 1.3000; TP1 — 1.3100; TP2 — 1.3190. Reason: a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a bearish Ichimoku Cloud but the rising SSA; the prices are on the support of Tenkan-Kijun. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10589

USD/CAD: bulls stayed too long 9/23/2016 On the USD/CAD daily chart, 'bears" managed to reach the level of 1,305. If they fail to test the support at 1.2977, it will warn us of their weakness. "Bulls" will be ready to start the counter attack, as soon as they manage to overcome the 1.31 level. On the USD/CAD hourly chart, formation of the 1-2-3 reversal model tells us that quotes will rise. The target of the "Crab" pattern is at 1,314-1,315. Recommendations: BUY 1,309 SL 1,3035 TP1 1,315 TP2 1,33. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10588

Gold: bears will struggle to death 9/23/2016 On the daily chart of gold, we can observe the consolidation within the range of $1305-1365 in the "Splash and shelf" pattern. As soon as the quotes surpass the upper and lower boundaries of the defined range, we will be able to determine the further direction of their movement. If "bulls" fail to hold their positions above $1334, it will warn us of their weakness. On the hourly chart of gold, the target on the inverted "Crab" pattern has been reached. A break of resistance at $1348 (88.6% Fibonacci of the last downward wave) will increase the risks of restoring the long-term uptrend. And, on the contrary, a drop in prices below the $1324 support will contribute to the fall of quotations in the direction of the lower boundary of the consolidation within the range of $1305-1365. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10587