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EUR/USD: wave (iv) coming soon 10/13/2016 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/10868/Image20161013102336001.png We’ve got a wedge in wave (i), which led to a decline in wave (iii). However, the current bearish impulse is likely going to end soon. So, if a pullback from 4/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200) happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward correction, which could be wave (iv). There’s a possible diagonal triangle, which is taking place on the one-hour chart. Therefore, if we see a pullback from 0/8 MM Level, then bulls will probably try to set up a correction. The main intraday target for wave (iv) is 2/8 MM Level. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10868

GBP/USD: price going to test support once again 10/13/2016 We’ve got a downward consolidation on the four-hours chart. In this case, the price is likely going to get a support at 1.2089 shortly. If any bullish pattern arrives afterwards, there’ll be an opportunity to have a correction towards the nearest resistance at 1.2476. The price has been moving in a range of the current flat. Nevertheless, it’s likely that the pair is going to reach a support at 1.2089 during the day. If bears be stopped here, then bulls will have a chance to deliver a correction in the direction of the 89 Moving Average. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10867

EUR/USD: support waiting for bears 10/13/2016 The price has been declining since Monday. Bears faced a support at 1.1011, so there’s a local consolidation in progress. Meanwhile, the market is likely going to reach the next support at 1.0978 in the short term. If we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward correction. There’s a consolidation, which is taking place under a resistance at 1.1032. Therefore, bears are likely going to reach a support at 1.1000 – 1.0978 during the day. If a pullback from this area happens, bulls will probably try to reach a resistance at 1.1045 – 1.1069. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10866

Morning brief October 13, 2016 10/13/2016 The main trigger of the session was the release of the FOMC Minutes that indicated that a growing number of committee members are pulling in the direction of hiking (the FOMC voted 7-3 to hold off a rate hike at Sept. meeting). It seems that the Chair Janet Yellen’s call weighted on the FOMC’s intention to raise rate. She stressed that August steadiness in labor force participation still had room to increase and suggested to wait for more positive signals to confirm the job market recovery. The Fed’s hesitation on when to rise rates and increase in number of the UK new buyer enquiries gave a tiny support to pound which lifted itself to 9 – 10 odd points. Euro and franc remained in a relatively small ranges. The major focus of the latest Asian session was September trade data from China. It showed reduction of export casting a renewed shadow over global growth prospects. The market response was a bit delayed, but when EUR/USD surged adding 30 points from its session low, while AUD/USD dropped having posted 3-month lows at 0.7520. NZD will unlikely show us any strength today; in the course of the last session it rose at about 20 points. USD/JPY fell once the release from China has been published. We might see more gains for the yen and other safe-haven assets with the gloomy sentiments over the future of the global economy. Gold is gaining momentum from its recent downfall; it lifted itself up to the $1255.5 and now continues to pave the way to the new resistance line at $1262,51 near the 200-day MA. Oil prices experienced a 1% drop overnight after OPEC members reported its output hit an 8-year high in September. This announcement offset optimism over the group's pledge to restrict output. The economic calendar for today will unlikely bring us lots of shake things. There will be US unemployment claims which could reach 252,000 this week, according to the forecasts (an indicator of the overall economic health of the country as consumer spending is affected by labor-market conditions). And also we recommend you to keep an eye on the US crude oil inventories. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10865

USD/JPY: the Bulls are realized its targets 10/13/2016 Technical levels: support – 103.70; resistance – 104.20, 104.60, 105.20. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 103.80; SL — 103.60; TP1 — 104.60; TP2 — 105.20. Reason: a bullish Ichimoku Cloud; a gold cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices can found the support on the Kijun-sen or Cloud. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10864

AUD/USD: falling to the 3-W lows 10/13/2016 Technical levels: support – 0.7520, 0.7490; resistance – 0.7560, 0.7590. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 0.7490/95; SL — 0.7470; TP1 — 0.7560; TP2 — 0.7590. Reason: a strong support near 0.7490; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but the rising Senkou Span B. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10863

GBP/USD: pound reached the Rubicon 10/13/2016 On the GBP/USD daily chart, pound tries to consolidate. Targets in the AB = CD and "Deep-sea crab" patterns help us to indicate the consolidation area at 1,2109-1,2317. If quotes go beyond these margins, there might be either a correction or restoration of the downward trend towards the convergence zone located at 1,1858-1,1884 levels. On the GBP/USD hourly chart, the descending triangle has been formed. Breakout of its lower boundary at 1.21 might lead to quotes' fall towards the convergence zone that we defined on the daily chart. Successful test of the resistance line at 1.2315 may turn into correction at the 1,239 and 1,248 levels. Recommendations: BUY 1,2315 SL 1,2260 TP1 1,239 TP2 1,248 SELL 1,21 SL 1,2155 TP1 1,1885 TP2 1,186 More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10862

USD/CAD: loonie moves up 10/13/2016 On the USD/CAD daily chart, quotes came closer to the important resistance line at 1.3306 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the last long downward wave). If this resistance line is broken out, the quotes will continue their rally towards targets 200% and 161.8% in the AB = CD pattern and "Crab" pattern (1,358-1,36). On the USD/CAD hourly chart, successful test of the resistance line at 1.3295 will create the prerequisites for the continuation of the quotes' rally in the direction of the upper limit of the upward trade channel (1.3415). There is also the target 161.8% in the "Three Indians" pattern. Recommendation: BUY 1,3295 SL 1,324 TP1 1,3415 TP2 1,358 TP3 1,36 More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10861

EUR/USD broke support zone 10/12/2016 EUR/USD broke support zone Next sell target 1.0950 EUR/USD continues to fall inside the minor impulse wave (iii) – which belongs to the impulse wave 3 from August. The pair earlier broke through the support zone lying between the strong support level 1.1150 (which has been reversing the price form August) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse from July. The breakout of the aforementioned support zone intensified the bearish pressure on this currency pair. EUR/USD is expected to fall further toward the next sell target at the support level 1.0950 (which previously reversed the price sharply in June and July). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10860

EUR/AUD falling inside minor impulse 10/12/2016 EUR/AUD falling inside minor impulse Next sell target -1.4450 EUR/AUD continues to fall inside the minor impulse wave 3 – which started previously – when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 1.5100, upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse from May. The active impulse wave 3 belongs to the intermediate impulse wave © – increasing the probability of further losses for this currency pair. EUR/AUD is expected to fall further toward the next strong support level 1.4450 (which reversed the previous sharp downward waves (A) and 1 in April and August respectively). The pair is likely to correct up after reaching the support level 1.4450. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10859

USD/JPY: bulls going to deliver new high 10/12/2016 There’s a support by the 13 Moving Average, so we’ve got a “Hammer” on this line. If it confirms, bulls are likely going to deliver a new high. However, if we see a pullback from the upper “Window”, there’ll be a chance to have a local downward correction. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a support by the 34 Moving Average. Meanwhile, bulls will probably try to test the 55 Moving Average soon. We’ve got a “Harami” at the local low, which has been confirmed enough. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the upper “Window” in the short term, so we can have a new high during the day. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10858

EUR/USD: bears broke through "Window" 10/12/2016 The price has been falling down since a “Harami” was formed at the local high. However, the pair has achieved a support line. So, if any bullish pattern arrives, there’ll be opportunity to have an upward correction in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, we don’t have any reversal pattern, so bears will probably try to reach the nearest support. The closest “Window” acted as a resistance, but there isn’t any bullish pattern. So, the price is likely going to test the “Window” during the day. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10857

Can pound sustain recovery? 10/12/2016 GBP/USD recovered on Wednesday from the levels below 1.2100 gaining more than 1% during the day. Sterling strengthened as British Prime Minister Theresa May accepted that the Parliament should be allowed to vote on her Brexit plan. Asa a result, concerns about the prospect of “hard Brexit” and its negative impact on the nation’s economy have eased and some GBP shorts were covered. As far as we can judge, May’s move to reduce the worries can really mean much for the pound providing the currency with support in the medium term. If the Parliament thinks that May took a too hard position, it can debate her actions and make her soften approach to negotiations with the EU. This should keep the country’s departure from the European Union less economically painful. At the same time, investors will likely remain cautious about the pound after its rapid decline seen last week. Moving averages at H1 are still declining pointing at the downtrend with resistance line around 1.2420. Next resistance is at 1.2465 (weekly pivot). Confidence to the sterling will restore only if it returns to the pre-selloff levels above 1.2800, and it’s a big distance for the bulls to get over. Another thing a trader has to take into account is the US side of things. FOMC September meeting minutes are due at 18:00 GMT. If the document contains clues that the Federal Reserve is going to raise rates in December, the market players may use the pound’s recent recovery to enter new shorts. Note that the currency is no longer oversold. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10856

Key option levels for Wednesday, October 12th 10/12/2016 EUR/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 12 944 ? + 31 713 ? Closest resistance levels 1.1145; 1.1187; 1.1214; 1.1246 Closest support levels 1.1016; 1.0993; 1.0966; 1.0935 (critical) Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.1016, with target points at 1.0993 and 1.0966 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.1145 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.1187 and 1.1214 GBP/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 5 578 ? + 4 297 ? Closest resistance levels 1.2277; 1.2297; 1.2319; 1.2344 Closest support levels 1.2140; 1.2119; 1.2102; 1.2078 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long GBP/USD above 1.2277, with the target points at 1.2297 and 1.2319 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.2140 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.2119 and 1.2102 USD/JPY Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Neutral Changes in the open interest + 698 ? + 2 393 ? Closest resistance levels 103.72; 104.06; 104.29; 104.56 Closest support levels 102.70; 102.51; 102.29; 102.02 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 103.72, with the target points at 104.06 and 104.29 Alternative scenario Moving below 102.70 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 102.51 and 102.29 EUR JPY GBP USD More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10855

Gambit strategy: balance of risk and gain 10/12/2016 Gambit trading strategy is a bold attempt to gain maximum profit while not losing sight of risk. But I should warn you, that to use it you should school yourself to patience, because for all conditions to meet you might need lots of time. The good thing is that this strategy worth it; you can get big profits from waiting for the right moment to come without taking additional risks. The strategy was designed by Walter T. Downs, a dedicated chess-player and mathematician, for calm and lucrative trading on D1 time interval. But it turned out that it works on h4 timeframe as well. With this strategy you need only one indicator to receive signals to enter the market – Bollinger bands. If there is a bullish trend – you should BUY on rollbacks from the upper Bollinger line. If there is a bearish trend - SELL on the rebounds from the lower line. SELL signal The minimum and maximum of the "signal" candles (2) should be located above the minimum and the maximum of the previous candles (1). Closing price of the signal candle should be in the lower part of the candle’s range. Central Bollinger line should be moving downward for at least 10 consecutive days. If all these conditions are met, at the opening of the third candle followed by the "signal" candle (3) we can open shorts. Stop Loss should be set slightly above the maximum of the "signal" candle (2). On the fourth day after we opened our position, we should place Stop Loss at the breakeven point (the opening point). The deal should be closed when the price crosses the lower green Bollinger line. BUY signal Minimum and maximum of the "signal" candle should be located below the minimum and maximum of the previous candle. The "signal" candle should be closed above the middle level of the entire range of the candle and above the center Bollinger line. Central Bollinger line should rise in the course of 10 consecutive days. If all these conditions are met, we enter the market long at the opening of the next candle followed by the "signal" candle. Stop Loss should be placed below the minimum of the "signal" candle. On the fourth day after we opened our position, Stop Loss should be placed at the breakeven point (the opening point). We should close the deal when the price crosses the upper green Bollinger line. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10854

Indians go to the aid of the gold prices 10/12/2016 Gold is a tangible, real asset, that’s why it is more trusted than esoteric financial instrument that haven’t got an inherent value. Nowhere more so than in the East it’s understood. In the upcoming week we may expect the demand for physical gold in India to pick up. It will support the gold prices and might provide a boost for a further upsurge. India is the world’s biggest consumer of the yellow precious metal. The demand for gold at this period of year usually gears up because of the rising number of weddings and festivals such as Diwali and Dussehra, when buying gold is considered to be auspicious and prosperous. Last week we saw that gold slumped significantly as the dollar rose on the speculations of a rate hike at the Federal Reserve meeting. On last Friday, however, the precious metal managed to stabilize and now it is going through the period of recovery hovering around the $1260 level located against the 200-day MA. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10853

FOMC minutes: why to watch and how to trade EUR/USD 10/12/20016 Today we will get a chance to get a summary of discussions from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. It will give the market a better understanding of where Fed sentiment stands and whether there will be a rate hike or not. At the last meeting held in September three of the FOMC’s 10 voting members dissented and opposed the final statement (the majority of central bank officials voted for keeping the Fed’s interest rate unchanged). After September’s meeting many Fed’s members in their speeches ahead of today’s minutes meeting reported that they are not against the rate hikes if the data releases confirm the revival of the US economy. Most watchers believe that there will be a rate hike in December once the storm after US presidential elections dies down. That’s why we see the US dollar is appreciating against other currencies in the course of last trading sessions. Meanwhile, we decided to remind you of the efficient SEB’s strategy on the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes. If EUR/USD rises in the next 3 hours after the FOMC minutes release, the specialists will open long positions, excessively buying the pair, and close it in 24 hours. Alternatively, if EUR/USD declines in 3 hours after the release, sell the pair and hold position for 24 hours. Last time in August this strategy performed will. The longs on the EUR/USD pair were opened at 1.1286; the signal was closed 1.1354 after 24 hours and the net profit accounted for 68 pips. "Nooo...I don't want to raise interest rate..." More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10852

EUR/USD: bears broke "Triangle"] 10/12/2016 The last triangle in wave (Y) has been broken, so there’s a bearish impulse, which is taking place on the four-hours chart. It’s likely that wave (iii) is going to be ended soon, so there’s an opportunity to see wave (iv) in the short term. However, bulls will probably try to deliver wave (v) of afterwards, so we should keep an eye on 4/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200) as a possible intraday target. As we can see on the one-hour chart, bears are developing an impulse in wave (iii). If we see a pullback from 1/8 MM Level, bulls are going to deliver wave (iv). Therefore, 3/8 MM Level could act as a resistance soon. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10851

USD/JPY: the Bulls still active 10/12/2016 Technical levels: support – 103.40/50; resistance – 104.00. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 103.50; SL — 103.30; TP1 — 104.00; TP2 — 104.60. Reason: a bullish Ichimoku Cloud and rising Senkou Span A; a new gold cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and rising Tenkan-sen; the prices are leave the overbought zone. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10850

AUD/USD: return to the Cloud 10/12/2016 Technical levels: support – 0.7550, 0.7520; resistance – 0.7590. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 0.7590; SL — 0.7610; TP1 — 0.7550; TP2 — 0.7520. Reason: a strong support near 0.7600; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a bullish Ichimoku Cloud. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10849

GBP/USD: consolidation going to be continued 10/12/2016 We’ve got a downward consolidation, which is taking place on the four-hours chart. So, the market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.2089 in the short term. If any bullish pattern arrives afterwards, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward correction. There’s a local “Double Bottom” pattern, which has been confirmed. However, if we see a pullback from the nearest Moving Average, bears are likely going to move on. So, we should keep an eye on the nearest support line as an intraday target. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10848

EUR/USD: bears going to reach support 10/12/2016 There’s a “Double Top” pattern, which has been confirmed, so the price is declining. The main intraday target is the nearest support at 1.1011. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward correction in the direction of a resistance at 1.1045 – 1.1069. The price is consolidating under the lower side of the nearest support area at 1.1032. So, bears are likely going to reach the nearest support at 1.1011 during the day. Considering a possible pullback from this level, bulls will probably try to reach a resistance at 1.1045 – 1.1069 afterwards. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10847

Gold decided to take a day off 10/12/2016 On the daily chart of gold, price reached the target 200% in the AB = CD pattern. A breakout of the support line at $1,250 will open the way towards the $1220 (Target 88.6% in the "Bat" pattern) and $1210 (50% Fibonacci retracement level of the last upward wave). Alternatively, rebound will create prerequisites for the restoration of the rising trend. On the hourly chart of gold, there is consolidation in the range of $1250-1267. Breakout of its upper limit might activate a "Shark" inverted pattern with target 88.6% ($1280). Successful test of the lower boundary of the trading channel might pull the quotes down to the $1220 and $1210 levels. Recommendations: BUY 1267 SL 1250 TP1 1300 TP2 1310 More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10846

NZD/USD: bears faced with a barrier 10/12/2016 On the NZD/USD daily chart, the "Head and shoulders" pattern has been formed. As a result, the quotes came closer to the lower boundary of the rising trade channel and almost reached the target 88.6% in the "Shark" pattern. "Bears" will have to try hard to get into the convergence area at 0,7-0,704. On the NZD/USD hourly chart, target 224% in the AB = CD pattern has been fulfilled. If "bears" fail to break out 78.6% and 88.6% levels of the last upward wave, "bulls" can counterattack. Recommendations: BUY 0,704 SL 0,6985 TP1 0,716 TP2 0,722 BUY 0,7 SL 0,6945 TP1 0,716 TP2 0,722 More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10845

EUR/USD ahead of FOMC Minutes: Testing a key trendline's support 10/12/2016 Today at 18:00 GMT will be released the minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, where Janet Yellen gave some hints that there are higher chances to see a rate hike and market’s analysts are expecting to see an increase during December’s meeting. We’ll see how the minutes’ language can provide more information about it and let’s see if odds increases in coming days after the minutes’ release. Our technical analysis for EUR/USD at the daily chart, ahead of FOMC minutes, is showing a triangle pattern formation across the board and the pair is showing a very weak structure, boosted by Tuesday’s trading. Now, we’re seeing that EUR/USD is testing the support level of 1.1047 and one may expect a rebound at the current stage, in order to reach the 200 SMA, while a breakout below that zone, should expose the 1.0967 level and because of that, the triangle will be invalidated. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/10842