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AUD/USD: bears won't give up without battle 11/7/2016 On the AUD/USD daily chart, prices tested the neckline, but failed to move further towards the target 161.8% in the AB = CD pattern (0,7845). To regain momentum, bulls should attack the resistance at 0.7715. There is the upper boundary of the ascending triangle. On the AUD/USD hourly chart, "bulls" should test the 88.6% level (0.7715) of XA wave to return quotes to the trading channel. Recommendation: BUY 0,7715 SL 0,766 TP 0,7845. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11194

EUR/USD: outlook for November 7-11 11/4/2016 EUR/USD gained in the past week and came to resistance at 1.1120 (August/September lows, 50-day MA). The main bullish driver for the pair was the general weakness of the US dollar. Still, data from the euro area were mostly favorable. Manufacturing expanded in October at the fastest pace since early 2014, consumer prices rose at the fastest pace in more than 2 years, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at the lowest level in more than 5 years. The European Central Bank (ECB) economic bulletin showed that the region’s economy should continue to expand, albeit at a moderate pace. If Donald Trump wins the US election, the euro may shoot up to 1.1200 with the next target at 1.1365 (August high). If Hillary Clinton wins, the US dollar will strengthen making the pair slide to 1.1000 and likely to 1.0940. Next week pay attention to German factory orders, euro zone’s Sentix investor confidence and retail sales on Monday. There will the Eurogroup meeting on Monday and ECOFIN meetings on Tuesday. The EU will release economic forecasts on Wednesday. French banks will be closed on Friday because of a holiday. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11193

GBP/USD: outlook for November 7-11 11/4/2016 Fundamental picture for the British pound has improved during the past week. The UK High Court ruled that British parliament – not the government – has the power to trigger Article 50 – a process of exit from the European Union. The UK government is going to appeal the verdict and a final ruling from the Supreme Court will be released in December. All in all, the start of Brexit may be delayed past March 2017. If it’s the parliament that will be in charge of Brexit negotiations, then ‘softer' Brexit becomes more likely as a majority of the members of parliament have a pro-EU stance and voted for remain. For a time being this will provide support to the British pound. Moreover, the Bank of England turned from dovish to the neutral stance. It increased 2017 forecasts for growth and inflation (2.7% CPI from 2.0% and 1.4% GDP from 0.8%). The BOE Governor Carney indicated that there were limits to his tolerance for inflation overshoot and that policy can respond to either direction. Carney also promised to stay in the Bank of England until 2019 improving the market’s sentiment about the sterling. The increase in pound provoked covering of short positions on sterling and allowed the currency to get higher. GBP/USD managed to rise above 5-month downtrend at 1.2325. Support is at this level, at 1.2100 and 1.2000. Hillary Clinton’s victory in the US presidential election will make the currency head down. Resistance lies at 1.2500, 1.2640 and 1.2740. If Trump wins, the pair will test higher levels. The UK economic calendar is quite empty, except for the manufacturing production on Tuesday. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11192

US dollar: outlook for November 7-11 11/4/2016 American political factors will continue to be the main driver of the currency market. Investors and traders are waiting for the outcome of the presidential race. US dollar index (DXY) declined in the past week as opinion polls have tightened and the uncertainty surrounding the election is extremely high. The Federal Reserve, as expected, changed neither its monetary policy, not its statement. The probability of December rate hike is still high, about 70%. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 161K in October, a bit missing the forecast, but still being high enough for the Fed to raise tares this year. In addition, growth of the average hourly earnings accelerated. The US presidential election will take place on Tuesday, November 8. The vote will take place across 6 time zones. The first state projections based on exit polls will appear at 02:00 Metatrader time on Wednesday. The earliest possible time the election will be “called” for either candidate by US TV networks is 06:00 Metatrader time. If Hillary Clinton wins the US presidential election, the greenback will sharply strengthen as the Fed will be expected to proceed with December rate hike. DXY will aim at 100.00. In case of Trump’s victory the index will be vulnerable for a decline to 92.00 as the Fed will probably have to stay on hold for longer. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11191

Crash course on the US voting system 11/4/2016 We’ve decided to fill you in on how the US votes are counted and how they aggregate a final result. Perhaps, this information can help you to form your own opinion of who might win the upcoming US presidential race. Americans don’t vote for their president directly; they vote for the electors who in turn support one of the candidates. Each state has a different number of electors depending on how money people live there. So, at the end of election day (November 8) there is a certain number of electors in each state who tend to support a Democratic or Republican nominee. But this number cannot be simply assigned to a certain candidate because all states abide the principle “the winner takes all”. For example, there are 10 electors assigned for Missouri; 6 of them vote for Democrats, 4 electors vote for Republicans. The winner is a Democratic nominee as he/she got the majority of votes, leaving the Republicans empty-handed. The same procedure happens in each state. There are some states who usually vote for Republican or Democratic nominee; there are also some states where the outcome is less certain. These are so-called swing states. In total, there are 538 electors. The candidate who has more than a half of these electors on his/her side wins the election. Once the electors have been elected, it becomes clear who will be the president. However, the president won’t be officially elected until December 18, 2016, when all the electors of electoral college cast their votes on behalf of their states. Then, the electoral votes are counted by Congress which announces who will reside in the White House for the next 4 years. You can find out how votes are distributed among the nominees; who is taking a lead in each state, according to the recent polls, by looking at the electoral map. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11190

AUD/USD: weekly outlook for November 7-11 11/4/2016 Aussie performed well in the course of this week but failed to break the resistance at 0.7700. On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash rate unchanged at 1.5%. The latest PMI surveys from China offered additional support to AUD and signaled that China’s economic growth has steadied. Commodity prices continue to rise giving Aussie a room for a further appreciation. On Friday, the RBA didn’t change its forecasts for inflation and economic growth but sounded dovish promising to introduce more easing if Australian economy needs a boost. Retail sales in September showed a slight increase (by 0.2%) followed by 0.3% rise in August. Next week traders will be all eyes on the US presidential election that will take place on November 8, as there won’t be any significant releases, events that could bring big changes to the chart. Until this day AUD/USD will be trading below 0.7700. Whatever the outcome of the US election, Aussie should hold up better than other currencies given the rise in commodity prices, acceleration of China’s economic growth and accommodative monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia. A Trump win might cause Aussie to rise to 0.7800 (April’s high), as the Fed could disregard the need for the rate hike in December. As dust settles, Aussie’s precipitous surge should be followed by a downfall. A Clinton win could send AUD to 0.7300 and strengthen the greenback. Before 0.7300, there are some other supports located at 0.7600 (50-day MA on the daily timeframe), 0.7490 (200-day MA on the daily timeframe). More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11189

USD/JPY: weekly outlook for November 7-11 11/4/2016 USD/JPY fell from 105.2 to 102.4 on the growing concerns over the US election outcome. The greenback got some support from the decent US unemployment report and trade balance on Friday. On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan left its policy settings unchanged as broadly expected by the market. It also pushed back the timing for hitting the inflation target as its current monetary policy measures failed to weaken the yen. The US presidential election scheduled for November 8 will be the key driver of USD/JPY currency pair over the short term. If Donald Trump wins the presidential race, JPY can rise significantly in the near-term, as more traders and investors sail in safe harbors. The nearest support for USD/JPY lies at 102.5 level. Once it’s broken, the pair could slide down further towards 102.00 and 101 levels. If Hillary Clinton wins, the market reaction should be limited. USD/JPY could test 104.00 level and in the case of the breakout move further towards 106.9 mark located against 200-day moving average. On Wednesday, watch for Japan’s current account data. If the report indicates surplus, the yen can edge up in relation to US dollar. On Thursday look through core machinery orders in search for the green shoots of Japan’s economic activity. On Friday, keep an eye on the producer price inflation data. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11188

AUD/CAD reached buy target 1.0300 11/4/2016 AUD/CAD reached buy target 1.0300 Next buy target - 1.0400 AUD/CAD earlier broke through the resistance level 1.0300, which stopped the previous minor impulse wave (i) at the end of October and which was set as the buy target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of the resistance level 1.0300 is likely to accelerate the active minor impulse waves (iii) and 3 – both of which belong to the sharp intermediate impulse wave (3) from August. AUD/CAD is likely to rise further toward the next buy target at the next round resistance level 1.0400. Buy stop-loss can be placed below the recently broken price level 1.0300. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11186

Key option levels for Friday, November 4th 11/4/2016 EUR/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 64 239 ? + 25 582 ? Closest resistance levels 1.1127; 1.1152; 1.1173/87; 1.1203 Closest support levels 1.1093; 1.1068; 1.1041; 1.1023 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long EUR/USD above 1.1127, with target points at 1.1152 and 1.1173 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.1093 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.1068 and 1.1041 GBP/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bearish Changes in the open interest + 3 897 ? + 3 532 ? Closest resistance levels 1.2479; 1.2505; 1.2544/58; 1.2574 Closest support levels 1.2440; 1.2408; 1.2383; 1.2349 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long GBP/USD above 1.2479, with target points at 1.2505 and 1.2544 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.2440 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.2408 and 1.2383 USD/JPY Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 1 174 ? + 14 723 ? Closest resistance levels 103.56; 103.82; 104.14; 104.59 Closest support levels 102.84; 102.65; 102.39; 102.08 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short USD/JPY below 102.84, with the target points at 102.65 and 102.39 Alternative scenario Moving above 103.56 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 103.82 and 104.14 More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11185

NFP forecasts from banks 11/4/2016 The consensus forecast for Non-Farm payrolls is 174K, for unemployment rate - 4.9%, for average hourly earnings - 0.3% More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11184

USD/JPY: oversold Dollar 11/4/2016 Technical levels: support – 103.05; resistance – 103.35, 103.90. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 103.20; SL — 103.00; TP1 — 103.90; TP2 — 104.30. Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud and falling Senkou Span A, but the oversold market; dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are on the strong support. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11183

GBP/USD: testing Senkou Span B 11/4/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.2350; resistance – 1.2480, 1.2520. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 1.2480; SL — 1.2500; TP1 — 1.2350; TP2 — 1.2310. Reason: overbought market; irregular created bullish Ichimoku Cloud; golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; strong resistance of Senkou Span B. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11182

GBP/USD: bulls going to break downtrend 11/4/2016 Bulls have broken the last “Rectangle” pattern, but the price faced a resistance on the downtrend line afterwards. In this case, bulls is likely going to try to break this line and climb even higher. The main intraday target is a resistance at 1.2621. We’ve got a local consolidation on the one-hour chart. It seems like bears are going to test a support at 1.2429 – 1.2399 during the day. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an option to have another upward price movement. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11181

Gold: bulls need a rest 11/4/2016 On the daily chart of gold, the first ($ 1300) of two targets on the long positions has been fulfilled. "Bulls" were stopped by resistance at $1305. Quotes failed to hold above the convergence zone ($1298-1305) thereby creating prerequisites for the correction towards the short-term uptrend. On the hourly chart of gold, the price rise above $1306 will be a signal of the continuation of their rally. On the contrary, a successful test of the lower boundary of the upward trade channel will strengthen the rollback risks towards $1,275. There is target 88.6% of the "Bat" pattern. Recommendation: BUY $1306 SL $1290 TP $1340 BUY $1275 SL $1260 TP $1310. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11179

EUR/USD: local flat going to be continued 11/4/2016 Bulls faced a resistance at 1.1122, so we’ve got the current consolidation. Therefore, the market is likely going to decline towards the 89 Moving Average. However, we’ve got a “Double Bottom” pattern here, so there’s an opportunity to have a bullish price movement afterwards. The price is consolidating between the nearest support at 1.1122 and the 34 Moving Average. Also, we’ve got a “Flag”, so the pair is likely going to test a resistance at 1.1122 once again. If a pullback from this level happens, bears will probably try to achieve the nearest support at 1.1069 – 1.1057. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11180

USD/CHF: bulls are going to attack On the USD/CHF daily chart, the target 0.99 has been fulfilled, the "bears" were stopped by the lower boundary of the upward trading channel and intermediate target 78.6% in the "Shark" pattern. If quotes move above the convergence zone at 0,9763-0,9768, it will be a signal of the end of the CD wave followed by the downward movement of the quotes towards 0.985 and 0.989. On the USD/CHF hourly chart, the formation of the expanding wedge increases the risk of reversal of the downward short-term trend. A break of resistance at 0.9768 followed by the exit of quotes from the "bearish" trading channel could lead to the correction. Recommendation: BUY 0,9768 SL 0,9713 TP 0,989 More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11178

EUR/USD & US NFP October: A bullish USD ahead of US elections? 11/4/2016 Today at 12:30GMT we’ll have the US Non-Farm Payrolls for October, where the market’s consensus is calling for an increase to 175,000 jobs from 156,000 registered in September. This data should provide more clues about the timing that the Fed will hike rates and chances are still higher for December’s meeting. With that being said, it will be interesting the volatility that this number should provide to a weak US Dollar, which had been posting losses in the last few days, ahead of the US presidential elections on next Tuesday. Our technical outlook for EUR/USD at H4 chart is still showing a bullish bias that had been strengthening in the last few days, as the US dollar remains bearish. The pair is consolidating its gains above the 200 SMA and one breakout above the resistance level of 1.1115, if data comes weaker than expected, should open the doors to test the 1.1190, while a breakout below the 1.1068 support area can push lower the pair towards 1.1018. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11177

EUR/USD: local correction coming 11/4/2016 The price reached the nearest resistance, so we’ve got a “High Wave” on the Daily chart. If this pattern confirms, the market is likely going to test the 13 Moving Average. However, if a pullback from this line happens, bulls will probably try to deliver another upward movement. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11175

USD/JPY: bearish "Harami" 11/4/2016 We’ve got a local bearish “Harami”, which has been confirmed. Considering that we don’t have any reversal pattern so far, bears are likely going to move on until any bullish sign arrives. There’s a “High Wave” pattern at the last low, which has a confirmation. However, we’ve got a “Harami” at the local high, so there’s an opportunity to have an intraday bearish correction. If we see a pullback from the nearest support line, there’ll be an option to see more bullish pressure. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11176

GBP/CAD broke key resistance level 1.6680 11/4/2016 GBP/CAD broke key resistance level 1.6680 Next buy target - 1.7000 GBP/CAD continues to rise – after the earlier breakout of the key resistance level 1.6680 (former support level and the lower boundary of the sideways price range inside which the pair has been trading from June). The breakout of the resistance level 1.6680 coincided with the breakout of the 50% Fibonacci correction level of the previous sharp downward impulse (5) from the middle of September. GBP/CAD is likely to rise further in the accelerated minor impulse wave 3 (of the primary impulse III) toward the next buy target at the round resistance level 1.7000. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11187

NZD/CAD reached buy target 0.9640 11/2/2016 NZD/CAD reached buy target 0.9640 Next buy target - 0.9800 NZD/CAD continues to rise sharply in the minor impulse wave 3 – which earlier broke through the resistance level 0.9640 (which was set as the buy target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of the resistance level 0.9640 accelerated the active minor impulse 3 – which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the middle of October. NZD/CAD is expected to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 0.9800 (target price for the completion of the active minor impulse wave 3). More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11152

AUD/NZD broke support level 1.0600 11/2/2016 AUD/NZD broke support level 1.0600 Next sell target - 1.0470 AUD/NZD continues to fall sharply inside the minor impulse wave (iii), which belongs to impulse 3 - which started earlier – when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the long-term resistance level 1.0740 (which has been reversing the price from May) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse from April. Having recently broken the support level 1.0600 (low of the previous impulse (i)) - AUD/NZD is expected to fall further in the accelerated impulse wave (iii) toward the next sell target at the support level 1.0470 (low of the previous wave ( and the target price for the completion of the active impulse wave (iii)). More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11151

Markets are kindly disposed towards Aussie, but for how long? 11/2/2016 The Aussie is trading higher against other major currencies. There are at once several contributors to the recent AUD growth. Perhaps the most significant one is tremendous commodity prices rises that delivered a boost to Australia’s terms of trade. Yesterday Reserve bank of Australia released its annual index of commodity prices. It indicated a sharp increase (by 16% in SDR terms) in the selling price of exported commodities. Over the year, coking coal prices have surged 150%, thermal coal is up 50%; iron ore edged up by 6.3%. All these commodities are the key units of Australian export. The market concerns over the RBA’s rate cut dissipated yesterday as the bank left its current policy stance unchanged. The China’s manufacturing data went ahead of expectations yesterday. The official manufacturing PMI came in at 51.2 for October instead of forecasted 50.4. Caixin manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2 in October, the best improvement since March 2011. The rationale for AUD appreciation in relation to USD. The US dollar after rising against G10 currencies over the past three months finally started to roll back on the market’s anxiety over a Trump victory in the US presidential election. Aussie, unlike other currencies, managed to withstand the greenback’s pressure. Trump’s victory would lead to increased uncertainty and deterioration in the market’s risk sentiment. Aussie should hold up better than other currencies given the situation in the commodity market, acceleration of China’s economic growth and favorable monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia. In addition, if Trump by good/bad fortune manages to win, the Aussie may get an additional boost as the Fed could disregard the need for the rate hike in December. According to the average forecast of analysts, the currency should fell down to 0.74 by the end of this year (the forecasts compiled and estimated by Bloomberg). UniCredit and ING Groep NV are more positive in their predictions for AUD. They believe that it may rise to the 0.80 level by the end of this year. Those who are planning to trade Aussie in the longer-term should think of the possible downside in commodity prices, as they are high enough to attract additional supply to the market. The recent boom in coal prices is not expected to be sustained as the surge has been excessive, so prices should retreat from the present levels in the longer term. Westpac currency strategist Sean Callow believes that drop in commodity prices could drag Australian dollar below the 0.70 mark by the fourth quarter of 2017. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11150

GBP/USD: flat inside "Rectangle" 11/2/2016 There’s a “Rectangle”, so the current consolidation is likely going to be continued in a range of this pattern. So, bulls are likely going to test the 55 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line arrives, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards a support at 1.2089. The price is consolidating between the nearest Moving Average and the closest resistance at 1.2271. It’s likely that this flat is going to end soon by a possible bullish price movement. However, there’s an opportunity to have a bearish price movement in the direction of a support at 1.2226 afterwards. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11149

EUR/USD: bulls broke Moving Averages 11/2/2016 The price is rising, but bulls faced a resistance at 1.1087, so we’ve got a local correction. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the next resistance at 1.1103 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll an option to have a decline towards a support at 1.1038. We’ve got a “Pennant” on the one-hour chart, which has been broken by the bullish rally. So, the price is likely going to continue rising towards the nearest resistance at 1.1103 during the day. At the same time, if we see a pullback from this level, bears will probably try to deliver a correction. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11148