riki143

GBP/USD: bulls going to climb higher 11//11/2016 The price has been moving in a flat range since the downtrend was broken. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach a resistance at 1.2677 in the short term. If bulls be stopped here, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bearish movement towards a support at 1.2476 -1.2330. There’s a “Flag”, so the price is likely going to continue moving in a range of this pattern. The main intraday target is a support at 1.2493. If we have a pullback from this level, bulls will probably try to achieve the nearest resistance at 1.2621 – 1.2677. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11266

EUR/USD: "Double Bottom" highlights possibility to have correction 11/11/2016 Bears faced a support at 1.0882, so we’ve got a consolidation in progress. Also, there’s a “Double Bottom” pattern. So, the market is likely going to rise towards the nearest resistance at 1.0945 – 1.0991. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to see another decline. We’ve got a support at 1.0850. Considering the developing “Double Bottom” pattern, the current consolidation is likely going to move on. So, the nearest bearish target is a support at 1.0906 – 1.0875. However, if a pullback from these levels arrives, bulls will probably try to deliver an upward movement in the direction of a resistance at 1.0958 – 1.0988. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11265

China’s mortal fear after the US election 11/11/2016 The yuan slumped to a 6-year low on the growing concerns over spoilt relationships between China and more protectionist US under Trump’s presidency. Throughout the presidential race Trump threatened to impose tariffs at about 45% on Chinese exports saying that People’s Republic of China is a well-known master of currency manipulation. For many years, China kept its exchange rate at low levels in order to make its exports cheaper and more attractive for foreign consumers (US dollar is free-floating currency, while the exchange rate of yuan is fixed). According to the newly elected Republican president, China should pay the heavy price for its perennial manipulations with renminbi, its national currency. The recent estimates of Commonwealth Bank of Australia show that the US tariffs if imposed would cut China’s shipments to the States by 25% just in a year. It seems that Trump will likely fulfill its pledge once he is inaugurated president. Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed his hope to expand bilateral cooperation with Trump and negotiate mutually acceptable terms of trade. If he fails to do so, China’s economic growth will shrink significantly, as the US is one of its major trading partners (look at the chart below). [iG]https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11264/%D0%91%D0%B5%D0%B7%D1%8B%D0%BC%D1%8F%D0%BD%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%B9(11).png[/img] More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11264

USD/JPY & Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov): Doing a top around 107.00 soon? 11/11/2016 Today at 15:00 GMT will be published the Michigan Consumer Sentiment for November, which is expected to have a slow increase from 87.2 to 87.5. While this indicator is mostly marked by some economic calendar as a mid-impact event, it can produce some volatility during the release, as it gauges the level of optimism of the consumers in the United States. Bear in mind that Consumer Sentiment had been in bearish trend. Our technical view for USD/JPY at H4 chart is calling for an exhausted bullish trend across the board, following the rally it had during the week, thanks to the United States presidential elections. If consumer’s data comes below the expectations, the pair can attempt a decline towards the 105.36 level, while in the another scenario, it can find a top around 107.55 level. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11263

EUR/USD: Elliott wave analysis 11/10/2016 It seems like we’re going to have a zigzag in wave E of (X). In this case, wave of E is likely going to start soon. The main intraday target is 3/8 Murrey Math Level (P=200). As we can see on the M15 chart, the current bearish impulse in wave [a] is going to end soon, cause wave (v) was finished. Therefore, bulls are likely going to reach 4/8 MM Level during the day. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11262

Key option levels for Thursday, November 10th 11/10/2016 EUR/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 561 747 ? - 253 478 ? Closest resistance levels 1.0957; 1.0979; 1.1003; 1.1039 Closest support levels 1.0876; 1.0857; 1.0834; 1.0807 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long EUR/USD above 1.0957, with target points at 1.0979 and 1.1003 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.0876 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.0857 and 1.0834 GBP/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bearish Changes in the open interest + 183 ? + 302 ? Closest resistance levels 1.2456; 1.2472; 1.2503; 1.2530 Closest support levels 1.2369; 1.2331; 1.2308; 1.2281 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2369, with target points at 1.2331 and 1.2308 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2456 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2472 and 1.2503 USD/JPY Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 1 128 ? + 1 164 ? Closest resistance levels 106.51; 106.69; 106.89; 107.15 Closest support levels 105.53; 105.11; 104.43; 104.11 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short USD/JPY below 105.53, with the target points at 105.11 and 104.43 Alternative scenario Moving above 106.51 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 106.69 and 106.89 USD/CAD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bullish Changes in the open interest + 211 ? + 201 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3417; 1.3443; 1.3466; 1.3501 Closest support levels 1.3385(90?); 1.3362; 1.3344; 1.3317 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3417, with the target points at 1.3443 and 1.3466 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3385 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.3362 and 1.3344 More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11260

Trump win might bring great changes to the European continent 11/10/2016 It seems that Trump win marks the beginning of the “far-right” curve. Surprising Republican victory showed the readiness of electorate to significant political shifts. The next opportunity for people to express their disappointment with conventional politics is Italian referendum on political reform scheduled for December 4. The current polls indicate the majority of “no” votes. If the referendum results come in line with forecasts, Mateo Renzi will have to step down as Italian Prime Minister, opening up the possibility of new elections with the win of the radical Five Star Movement. Next month, Austrians will have to choose their national leader. The polls indicate that Norbert Hofer, a front-runner of the right-wing populist Freedom party, has all chances to become the first far-right head of state in western Europe since the WWII. Next year should provide even more opportunities for the popular pushback as there will be presidential and parliamentary elections in France, Germany, Netherlands. Trump’s breakthrough boosted the confidence of candidates running on nationalistic, anti-foreigner, anti-elite and anti-globalization platforms. In Germany, Frauke Petry, the leader of the far-right populist Alternative für Deutschland, said that Trump’s victory was “encouraging” as it heralds the beginning of political sea-change in Europe. The Dutch far-right leader Geert Wilders, Islamophobic front-runner in the next parliamentary elections congratulated Trump in Twitter and said his win is inspirational for all right-wing party leaders. In Hungary, nationalist leader Viktor Orbán said Trump’s win proved that “democracy is still alive”. Marine Le Pen, the leader of France’s far-right Front National, was triumphant on Wednesday as she heard about Trump win, saying his victory showed that it’s high time “political and media elite” put in its place. Her own win in the upcoming election is probable. National Front party with its anti-immigration stance is now a key electoral force; its support is growing which is marked by the outcome of French regional election in 2015. From all has been said, we may conclude that there might be great changes not only in the US but also in the Eurozone countries. Every victory of the nationalist leader/ far-right party with their anti-immigrant rhetoric and protectionist approach to trade relationships can send some shockwaves across the trading desks. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11259

GBP/JPY broke resistance zone 11/10/2016 GBP/JPY broke resistance zone Next buy target - 134.00 GBP/JPY continues to rise inside the ©-wave of the minor ABC correction 2 from the start of October. The price earlier broke through the resistance zone lying at the intersection of the resistance level 130.00 (former major support level which stopped the previous impulse waves ?, (1) and (iii), as can be seen below) and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse 1 from the start of September. GBP/JPY is likely to rise in the accelerated ©-wave toward the next buy target at the resistance level 134.00 (forecast price for the completion of the active wave 2, standing close to the 61.8% Fibonacci correction level of the previous impulse 1). More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11258

EUR/USD falling inside minor impulse wave 11/10/2016 EUR/USD falling inside minor impulse wave Next sell target - 1.0850 EUR/USD continues to decline inside the minor impulse wave (iii) – which is a part of wave 3 of the intermediate downward impulse wave (3) from the start of May. The price earlier reversed down sharply from the resistance are lying between the pivotal resistance level 1.1150 (former strong support level from September), upper daily Bollinger Band as well as resistance trendline of the daily down channel from May and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the earlier impulse 3. EUR/USD is likely to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 1.0850 (which stopped the previous sharp impulse at the end of October). More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11257

Forecasts for USD/JPY from banks 11/10/2016 Credit Agricole suggests buying USD/JPY from 103.09 with a stop at 99 and target at 110. Here is the rationale: The US unlike the UK will be dealing with its trading partners from a position of strength; The US economy can benefit from Trump’s presidency if he manages to realize his great spending plans. With Republican Congress, new policies should be implemented without significant hindrances (oppositions). Many believe that there won’t be any Washington’s policy gridlocks that used to occur under Obama presidency, so, Trump will have all chances to fulfill his election pledges. The recent cleanout of short JPY positions as a consequence of the US election outcome opens the doors for another increase in JPY shorts as investors focus on the improving prospects for global growth and inflation even on the back of the Fed’s rate hike. Significant risk-aversion shouldn’t re-emerge in the near-term, so, the yen as a safe-have asset shouldn’t appreciate again. Societe Generale doesn’t entirely share this point of view, but also believes that unless there’s a big increase in risk aversion, USD is likely to move higher against JPY. Morgan Stanley suggests buying USD on its dips against low-yielding currencies. Mr. Trump supported by a Republican House and Senate will likely manage to put his expansionary plans into action (fiscal stimulus should push the nominal US yield curve intro steeper territory and offer investors higher real rate in the longer run. The Fed will have to introduce tightening measures to curb inflation rate. The change of the US monetary/fiscal policy mix will make the yield curve more attractive for inflows, offering significant support for USD. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11256

Is Trump good for business? 11/10/2016 Despite the negative forecasts that the US stocks will slump if Donald Trump is elected president, S&P 500 jumped by more than 1% on Wednesday. Why were the stocks cheered up so much by the billionaire’s rise to political power? Here are several important things: - In his victory speech, Trump said that it’s time for the Americans “to come together as one united people”. Market players now expect that Trump’s actual action will be more moderate that the remarks he made while being a candidate. - People realized that it’s not the end of the world as we know it. US economic fundamentals haven’t changed. - The pre-election uncertainty is now over. Trump may deliver more surprises, but a lot of doubts has been removed as the market has a general understanding of what Trump plans to do. The key action will involve the economy, taxes, border security and immigration, law and order, Obamacare and regulations. - Being a businessman himself Trump is expected to conduct business-friendly policies. The new president is expected to boost fiscal spending and encourage the US economic growth to accelerate. As Republicans control of both houses of Congress, it will be ease for them to pass the new legislation. According to the analysts, this could be a bullish driver for the American stocks next year. - Health-care went up as investors relaxed after having prepared to for stronger regulatory scrutiny promised by Hillary Clinton. Companies like Caterpillar Inc. gained on Trump’s promise to increase infrastructure spending. Financials surged because investors project higher rates to increase their profits. This increase managed to offset the decline in defensive sectors such as utilities and consumer staples. The uncertainty of Trump’s trade policies affects global companies like Apple Inc., Coca-Cola Co., and Procter & Gamble Co. Trump will become president after a ceremony on January 20, 2017. Still, even before that there will be a lot of talk about his plans and this talk will have a sizeable impact on the US and global stock markets. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11254

USD/JPY: forming the new local highs 11/10/2016 Technical levels: support – 104.90, 104.60; resistance – 105. 90. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 104.60; SL — 104.40; TP1 — 105.30; TP2 — 105.90. Reason: narrow Ichimoku Cloud and horizontal Senkou Span A and B; cancelled cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and horizontal Tenkan-sen and Kihun-sen. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11251

AUD/USD: on the Cloud support 11/10/2016 Technical levels: support – 0.7665; resistance – 0.7730. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 0.7660; SL — 0.7640; TP1 — 0.7730; TP2 — 0.7780. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span B; cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are on the strong support formed by Cloud. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11250

GBP/USD: in consolidation over Clouds 11/10/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.2360, 1.2400; resistance – 1.2450. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.2400; SL — 1.2380; TP1 — 1.2490; TP2 — 1.2540. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud; all lines are horizontal; irregular dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; strong support of the Cloud. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11249

EUR/USD: euro is losing positions 11/10/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.0895; resistance – 1.0990, 1.1025. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.0895; SL — 1.0875; TP1 — 1.0990; TP2 – 1.1025. 2. Sell — 1.0990; SL — 1.1010; TP1 — 1.0895; TP2 – 1.0850. Reason: bullish character of Ichimoku Cloud, but all lines of Ichimoku Indicator are horizontal; the prices are in the negative zone. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11248

GBP/USD: consolidation going to move on 11/10/2016 We’ve got a consolidation between the nearest resistance at 1.2621 and the 55 Moving Average. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach a resistance at 1.2556 – 1.2621 in the short term. If a pullback from this area happens, bears will probably try to deliver a price movement towards a support at 1.2330 – 1.2226. The price has been moving in a flat range. The 89 Moving Average is acting as a support. So, the pair is likely going to reach a resistance at 1.2493 shortly. If we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline in the direction of the next support at 1.2371. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11247

EUR/USD: bulls going to reach Moving Averages 11/10/2016 We’ve got a “V-Top” pattern, so the market plunged. Because of the last “V-Bottom” pattern, the market is likely going to reach a resistance at 1.0991. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline. The price was declining yesterday. Finally, bears faced a support at 1.0882, which led to form a “V-Bottom” pattern. In this case, the pair is likely going to achieve a resistance at 1.0988 – 1.1008 during the day. However, there’s an option to see a decline towards a support at 1.0850 later on. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11246

Morning brief for November 10, 2016 11/10/2016 USD/JPY made a big swing yesterday. First, it slumped to 101.16, then soared towards 106.00 as the probability of a December rate hike had been revised. A Trump presidency is promised to be expansionary with fiscal stimulus and tax cuts, hence, the Fed will be forced to raise the rate to offset its implication and rein in the inflation. At the present moment, USD/JPY is consolidating along 105.5 level. There shouldn’t be any triggers today for this currency pair. Having initially stretched to 1.1300 on the panic of Trump’s win EUR/USD slumped to 0.9060 overnight, as markets digested the surprising outcome of the presidential race. In the course of the Asian trading session, the euro edges up a little and now it tries to consolidate along 1.0930. Keep focus on the unemployment claims which if come ahead of expectation can boost the euro. NZD/USD fell yesterday as Reserve Bank of New Zealand announced a rate cut. Then, it recovered, after RBNZ senior members convinced the general public that the central bank is done cutting rate for an extended period of time. Later today we will get business NZ manufacturing index and monthly FPI which shouldn’t bring significant moves to the chart. AUD/USD surged a bit, supported by increases in prices of resources exported by the nation. Yesterday Aussie fell below 0.7575 level on the speculation of Trump’s intention to introduce tariff quote for Chinese exports. China is the major trading partner of Australia. So, any events that its economic growth, impact the Australian dollar. GBP/USD was trading in the lesser margin yesterday (if compare it with other currencies). Now, the pair is trading along 1.2410. We got the UK trade balance data in the morning which indicated the widening trade deficit at 12.7 bln denominated in UK pounds. This day shouldn’t bring much volatility for GBP/USD chart. Crude oil slid down to $45.12 after the Energy Information Administration report indicated 2,4M increase in the US oil inventories from the last week. Now oil prices recovered from the earlier downfall and hovering around the $45.60 mark. Gold jumped 4.8% on Wednesday as Trump’s win boosted demand for the safest assets. Now prices are trying to $1286 level after overnight swings. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11245

AUD/USD: counterparts concluded a truce 11/10/2016 On the AUD/USD daily chart, prices once again rebounded from the lower boundary of the upward trading channel and come closer to the resistance at 0.769. If it is tested successfully, the rally will continue towards 0.776 or higher. In contrast, the rollback from this resistance can lead to the attack of diagonal support followed by activation of the "Shark" pattern. For AUD/USD hourly chart, «bulls» will continue to keep the situation under control as long as quotes are located above 0.7571. If this support is tested, the expanding wedge pattern will be activated. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11244

NZD/USD: kiwi's future is in hands of the support 11/10/2016 On the NZD/USD daily chart, the purple triangle has been formed. Breakout of the upper boundary at 0.7405 will give buyers hope for a recovery of the "bullish" trend. In contrast, a successful breakout of the diagonal support near 0.7173 will allow the pair to go out from the upward trading channel and create prerequisites for the development of corrective movement. On the NZD/USD hourly chart, key support is located near the 0.7174 mark. If the "bears" manage to break it out, the quotes will return to the boundaries of the downward trading channel. This will signal about the restoration of short-term "bear" trend. In contrast, the rebound will lead to the continuation of the rally. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11243

EUR/USD after Trump's victory: Are the bears in EUR strengthening for mid-term? 11/10/2016 On an unexpected move, because of recent polls pre-elections, the Republican nominee, and businessman Donald Trump became the new United States president, catching up the votes from several “battleground” states, where Florida played a key role to define the race towards the White House. As results kept coming during early Wednesday’s session, US dollar plummeted and safe haven’s assets were boosted by a huge demand, because Trump was leading and gaining a big ground across the USA. However, markets managed to stabilize their structures and most of the currencies were back to their pre-election price action. According to our technical overview for EUR/USD at H4 chart, the pair is back below the 200 SMA, after it reached the 1.1280 level, but during American session, plunged to consolidate below the 1.10 handle. If the pair does a breakout below the 1.0890 level, then it can test the 1.0856 level, only if the US dollar increases during next hours. By another hand, as the Euro gets some boost, it can go towards the 1.10190 level, as long as it manages to consolidate the 1.0964 level. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11242

EUR/USD: "triangle" going to end 11/9/2016 The main wave count has been changed. Wave (X) is likely taking form of a triangle. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the lower side of this pattern. If a pullback happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have bullish wave (Y) of [/b]. As we can see on the four-hours chart, there’s a zigzag in wave D. So, it seems like bearish wave [a] is going to end soon. In this case, we could have wave of E afterwards. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11241

How Trump’s presidency can affect energy market 11/9/2016 Throughout the presidential race Donald Trump was saying that he would allow unfettered production of oil, coal and natural gas, increase gas and oil drilling in the Atlantic Ocean and on federal lands. Also, he was complaining that Obama administration stifled energy producing companies with numerous regulations and restrictions. He vowed to help energy companies located in Colorado, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Virginia (key battlegrounds in the election campaign) to boost their production, as he becomes a president. Unlike Mr. Trump, Hillary Clinton advocated for the development of renewable energy and threatened to put coal miners and coal companies out of business. In addition, she promised to ban oil drilling in the Atlantic Ocean (perhaps, all these commitments played a low-down trick with Democratic nominee in the election; she lost her votes in all aforementioned states). President Obama, the present leader of Democrats, was not really friendly to the oil and gas industry, increasing regulations on the industry. Despite these severities in relation to energy companies, oil and gas production have risen in the course of Obama’s presidency mainly because it coincided with the shale oil revolution. Under Trump’s rule, with his pro-fossil fuel, pro-pipeline policies and protectionist views, the US energy output should increase even further. This in part explains why oil prices slumped to $45.60 overnight (on the anticipation of the growing US oil supply in the future). At the present moment, Brent oil futures are trading below the $46.00 level. Traders and investors are waiting for the Energy Information Administration report on the US oil inventories which is going to be released later today. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11240

USD/JPY: "Piercing Line" stopped bears 11/9/2016 We’ve got a “Hanging Man” at the last high, which has been confirmed. Therefore, the price is likely going to decline soon. As we can see on the Daily chart, there isn’t any reversal pattern so far. In this case, there’s an option to have another decline. There’s a “Piercing Line”, so the price faced a resistance on the 13 Moving Average. Because of a pullback from this line, bears will probably try to deliver a local downward price movement. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11239

EUR/USD: huge candles 11/9/2016 There’re a support on the 55 Moving Average and a resistance on the upper “Window”. So, if the lower “Window” acts as a support, bulls will probably try to deliver another upward price movement. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s an “Inverted Hammer”, but this pattern hasn’t been confirmed yet. So, bears are likely going to test the last low once again. We’ve got a “Doji”, which has been confirmed enough. However, the pair is likely going to test the 55 Moving Average again. If we see a pullback from this line, there'll be an opportunity to have a bullish movement. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11238