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Key option levels for Wednesday, November 16th 11/16/2016 EUR/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 40 127 ? + 146 999 ? Closest resistance levels 1.0770; 1.0795; 1.0811; 1.0831 Closest support levels 1.0704; 1.0682; 1.0648; 1.0599 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0704, with target points at 1.0682 and 1.0648 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0770 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0795 and 1.0811 GBP/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 330 ? + 860 ? Closest resistance levels 1.2491; 1.2514/24; 1.2570; 1.2616 Closest support levels 1.2449; 1.2431; 1.2402; 1.2361 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2449, with target points at 1.2431 and 1.2402 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2491 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2514/24 and 1.2570 USD/JPY Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bearish Changes in the open interest + 3 391 ? + 1 833 ? Closest resistance levels 109.48(57?); 109.78; 110.11; 110.33 Closest support levels 108.92; 108.66; 108.46; 108.23 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 109.48, with the target points at 109.78 and 110.11 Alternative scenario Moving below 108.92 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 108.66 and 108.46 More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11333

USD/JPY: bulls are still active 11/16/2016 Technical levels: support – 108.50, 107.30; resistance – 109.70, 110.10. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 109.70; SL — 109.90; TP1 — 108.50; TP2 — 108.00. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud and rising lines of Ichimoku Indicator; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen over the Clouds; but there is an overbought market and a strong resistance levels. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11332

AUD/USD: bears are on the attack 11/16/2016 Technical levels: support – 0.7520/30, 0.7480; resistance – 0.7580. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 0.7530; SL — 0.7550; TP1 — 0.7480; TP2 — 0.7410. Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud; dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; but there is a strong support near 0.7500. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11331

GBP/USD: on the Clouds support 11/16/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.2450; resistance – 1.2560, 1.2610. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.2450/60; SL — 1.2430; TP1 — 1.2560; TP2 — 1.2610. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud; correctional dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; strong support of the Cloud. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11330

Morning brief for November 16, 2016. 11/16/2016 GBP/USD rose to 1.2480 on the speculation that “Brexit” might be delayed up to 2 years. Today keep in focus labor data (claimant count change, average earnings index, unemployment rate). A drop in jobless claims could send prices higher; a weak reading should push GBP/USD downward. AUD/USD edged down to 0.7550 after wage growth data fell out of the expectations. US inflation and manufacturing data (PPI and manufacturing sales) can bring some moves to the technical chart of this currency pair. NZD/USD slid down after devastating earthquake broke into the country. Now the pair is consolidating along the 0.7095 level. It may drop again later today, if NZ statistical releases (PPI input/output, retail sales) bring weak data. EUR/USD is trading below 1.0750 showing a sign of recovery. The yield on 10-year US Treasures slipped to 2.2070 from Monday’s high of 2.302, but it is still sharply above its pre-election level. Retail sales data and manufacturing index released yesterday were ahead of expectations instilling confidence into December rate hike. USD/JPY is trading along 109.05 having slipped slightly off its high (109.34) struck on Tuesday. There won’t be any data from Japan that could disturb the pair movement today. USD/CAD went below 1.3430 in the Asian session. CAD’s upsurge could be attributed to the rise in oil prices. Brent oil futures hovered near their highest levels in two weeks (to $47.12) on Tuesday after OPEC members promised to strike a deal on the output cut at the end of November. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11329

EUR/USD: bears hit the brake pedal 11/16/2016 On the EUR/USD daily chart, there is an inside bar which indicates that there is an uncertainty in the market.Sellers decided to take a break and give respite to their counterparts. A breakout of the inside bar minimum (at 1.071) can move quotes towards the lower boundary of the "bearish" trading channel. Further dynamics in the movement of the pair will be brought by "bears" if they manage to attack support at 1,066. On the EUR/USD hourly chart, the formation of the 1-2-3 reversal pattern followed by the break of resistance at 1.08 can return quotes to the downward trading channel. Implementation of the "Bat" inverted pattern can lead to the correction towards the convergence area at 1.09-1.092. It could be used for opening short positions. Recommendation: SELL 1.0905 SL 1.096 TP 1.066. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11328

AUD/USD: Aussie moved downward 11/16/2016 On the AUD/USD daily chart, there was a breakout of the lower boundary of the long-term upward trading channel. It shows that the control of the market was turned over to the "bears". "Perfect Butterfly" pattern tells us that the quotes may fall to 0.744. There is 127.2% target. On the AUD/USD hourly chart, the formation of the expanding wedge pattern has been completed. The rise of prices towards 23.6% (0.7575), 38.2% (0.7615) and 50% (0.7645) levels formed from the 5.4 wave can be used for opening short positions. Recommendations: SELL 0,7575 SL 0,7630 TP 0,744, SELL 0,7615 SL 0,767 TP 0,744, SELL 0,7645 SL 0,77 TP 0,744. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11327

GBP/USD: "Breakaway Gap" acted as a resistance 11/16/2016 We’ve got a consolidation, which is taking place under a resistance at 1.2677. Therefore, the market is likely going to decline towards the 55 Moving Average in the short term. If we see a pullback from this line, there’ll be a chance to have an upward correction. In this case, we should keep an eye on a resistance at 1.2621 – 1.2677 as a possible bullish target. The last uptrend has been broken. The price faced a support at 1.2351 afterwards, which led to the current consolidation. So, bears are likely going to reach the next support at 1.2399 – 1.2351 shortly. At the same time, there’s an opportunity to have a bullish correction afterwards. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11326

EUR/USD: "Flag" led to massive decline 11/16/2016 The price is consolidating under a support at 1.0710. Also, we’ve got a resistance at 1.0821, so the market is likely going to reach the next support at 1.0673 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another upward movement in the direction of a resistance at 1.0807 – 1.0821. There’s a flat under the 34 Moving Average. Considering yesterday’s “V-Top” pattern, the pair is likely going to achieve the nearest support at 1.0710 – 1.0673 during the day. If bears be stopped here, an upward corrections will be on the table. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11325

EUR/USD & US PPI: unstoppable greenback still dominant 11/16/2016 Today will be published the US Producer Price Index at 13:30 GMT, which should remain unchanged, as analysts have been expecting. However, because of recent good data from retail sales, we may expect a surprise in the number and that could bring some bullish momentum to the US Dollar. The PPI saw a strong increase in September, rising 0.7%. If data comes below the expectations, it could place a temporary top on the USD. Our technical outlook for EUR/USD at H1 chart is showing a strong bearish structure developing, as the pair is looking to break the support zone of 1.0710 and if data comes better-than-expected, we can see a decline towards the 1.0559 in a short and mid term basis. However, in the “weaker” scenario, if EUR/USD does a rebound at the current stage, it can try a break above the 1.0804 level, in order to rally towards the 1.0850 level in a first degree. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11324

USD/JPY: there isn't any reversal pattern 11/16/2016 The price has found a lodgement above the “Window and we don’t have any reversal pattern so far. In this case, bulls are likely going to reach the closest resistance. If we see any bullish pattern on this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have a local downward correction. There’s a possible “Three Methods” pattern under the “Window”, which just has broken. Also, we’ve got a local “Tweezers”, so the market is likely going to rise towards the nearest resistance level in the short term. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11323

EUR/USD: price reached important support 11/16/2016 The price has reached the long-term support area, but we don’t have any bullish pattern so far. At the same time, there’s a possible “Inverted Hammer”. If this pattern confirms, bulls will probably try to deliver a correction. There’s a bearish price movement on the four-hours chart. Moreover, we’ve got a “Three Methods” pattern, so the price is likely going to continue falling down. If we see any bullish pattern later on, there’ll be an option to have a local correction. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11322

Oz Forex System: 100-800 Pips Per Trade 15/11/2016 Perhaps, everybody knows a fairy tale about heroic orphan child Dorothy Gale and her little dog Toto whose house was blown into Oz by a tornado. It seems that traders while creating the OzFX trading system became reminiscent of their childhood and decided to name their strategy after the marvelous land from Baum’s tale. As the result, we have a powerful and very profitable trading strategy with a bit odd name. Enough talk, let’s find out how to trade with this strategy. “Key ingredients” Daily timeframe Any currency pairs Tools: Stochastic indicator + AC (Accelerator Oscillator) technical indicator How to trade Stochastic and AC Stochastic Traders are always hunting for ways to catch new trends in development. Stochastic is a handy weapon for this purpose. It is made up of two lines. The red line is a signal line and the green line is the line that trails the price movement. Two lines are bound between 0 and 100. There are also two additional marks (20% and 80%) which indicate the overbought/oversold areas. “Sell signal” occurs when green line touches or breaks 80% level and crosses the signal, red line (the green line should be below the red line after crossover). “Buy signal” occurs when the green line reaches/surpasses the 20% mark and crosses 20% line (the green line should be above the red line after crossover). Accelerator Oscillator The indicator has two scales: positive and negative. The middle line of the oscillator is a “0” mark which separates -/+ areas. If histogram crosses it and moves downwards – it’s a “sell signal”. If histogram crosses zero mark and moves upwards – it’s a “buy signal”. OzFx trading rules The main indicator for the entry point is AC. Stochastic is used as a filter of false entries. If Stochastic gives you a “buy signal”, and AC green bands move into the positive area, you can enter the market long. Once you defined your entry point you should open not just one, but 5 lots. To each lot you should assign stop-loss at 100 pips. Take-profits should be placed in the following order: Trade with 5 Lots with Stop Loss 100 pips away Take Profit on 1st Lot at 50 pips. Move Stop Loss to Break Even (BE). Take Profit on 2nd Lot at 100 pips. Take Profit on 3rd Lot at 150 pips. Take Profit on 4th Lot at 200 pips. Let the 5th Lot run until you see an opposite entry signal. Nota bene! When the first order reaches take-profit, you should shift other orders into “breakeven” point. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11315

“Trump’s effect” on the US bonds 15/11/2016 Many economists, financiers wrestled with subject how to raise the inflation expectations of the private sector. They suggested sophisticated policies for the economic recovery from the recession, perform mathematical computations; Kuroda, Draghi and other financial pundits made their pledges to raise inflation rates, but all in vain. Then, one very charismatic Republican won the US presidential election and made people believe in the prospects of a higher inflation rate with the only phrase: “I will cut taxes, extend government spending”. So, that’s how it works. Japan needs its own Trump to spur its inflation rates. The immediate reaction to the inflation expectation is rising bond yields. After Trump’s victory 10-year US Treasury yields extended their rise as investors braced for higher inflation in the United States. Yields on 30-year Treasuries rose to the highest level since January. Technical indicators such as the relative strength index signaled Treasuries selloff went too far. The 10-year yield’s RSI rose to about 83, which is the highest level since 1990. Usually, if this number goes above 70, it means that yields are overbought, and the notes are oversold. Trump’s promise to spur the infrastructure spending and cut taxes should spur economic growth and boost inflation rate followed by the Fed’s policy tightening. Emerging markets are railing at their fates as capitals move to the US amid concerns Trump will implement its protectionist plans. So, there is a double trigger that drives the Treasuries – anticipation of the Fed’s tightening and uncertainty over Trump’s presidency. According to John Davies, a rates strategist at Standard Chartered Plc, there is a room for further expansion of bond’s spreads. And with this expansion, we may expect a further USD appreciation. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11314

Key option levels for Tuesday, November 15th 15/11/2016 EUR/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 57 636 ? - 131 637 ? Closest resistance levels 1.0778; 1.0802(19?); 1.0838; 1.0861 Closest support levels 1.0738; 1.0711; 1.0688; 1.0652 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long EUR/USD above 1.0778, with target points at 1.0802/19 and 1.0838 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.0738 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.0711 and 1.0688 GBP/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 313 ? + 2 333 ? Closest resistance levels 1.2504; 1.2528/38; 1.2565 Closest support levels 1.2459; 1.2439; 1.2407; 1.2364 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2459, with target points at 1.2439 and 1.2407 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2504 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2528 and 1.2565 USD/JPY Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bearish Changes in the open interest + 1 547 ? + 1 853 ? Closest resistance levels 108.51(57?); 108.80; 109.05; 109.41 Closest support levels 107.67; 107.45; 107.18; 106.87 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 108.51, with the target points at 108.80 and 109.05 Alternative scenario Moving below 107.67 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 107.45 and 107.18 USD/CAD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bullish Changes in the open interest + 559 ? + 510 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3563; (1.3576 ?); 1.3607; 1.3635 Closest support levels 1.3495; 1.3472; 1.3439; 1.3398 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3563, with the target points at 1.3607 and 1.3635 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3495 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 1.3472 and 1.3439 More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11313

GBP/USD: bears on the way to test trend line 15/11/2016 The price faced a resistance at 1.2677, so we’ve got a “V-Top” pattern. The 89 Moving Average is acting as a support. Therefore, the market is likely going to continue falling down towards the 55 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be option to have an upward movement in the direction of a resistance at 1.2621 – 1.2677. Bears found a support on the 89 Moving Average, which led to the current consolidation. So, the pair is likely going to test the nearest support at 1.2429 – 1.2399 during the day. At the same time, if we see a pullback from these levels, bulls will probably try to catch a resistance at 1.2556 – 1.2621. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11312

EUR/USD: support waiting for bears 15/11/2016 The price faced a support at 1.0710, which led to form a “V-Bottom” pattern. So, the market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.0673 in the short term. If we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bullish correction. There’s a possible “Pennant” pattern, so bears are likely going to test a support at 1.0710 – 1.0673 during the day. However, there’s an opportunity to have a price movement towards a resistance at 1.0777 – 1.0807 later on. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11311

USD/JPY: market is under resistance[//B] 15/11/2016 Technical levels: support – 106.90, 107.30; resistance – 108.80. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 108.80; SL — 109.00; TP1 — 108.00; TP2 — 107.30. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud and rising lines of Ichimoku Indicator; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen over the Clouds; but there is an overbought market and a strong resistance near 109.00. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11310

GBP/USD: bullish trend is going on 15/11/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.2450; resistance – 1.2560, 1.2610. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.2450; SL — 1.2430; TP1 — 1.2560; TP2 — 1.2610. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud; golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; all lines of Ichimoku Indicator are horizontal except Kijun-sen; strong support of the Cloud. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11309

Morning brief for November 15, 2016 15/11/2016 EUR/USD traded higher in the late session having approached to 1.0760. Then, the pair drifted back towards 1.0740. There was no news that could support the euro; many analysts predict that the greenback should bring more gains in near term on the rising Treasury yields. Today traders will be waiting for the bunch of statistical data from the Eurozone (German preliminary GDP, German ZEW Economic sentiment, French final CPI, flash quarterly GDP, trade balance and economic sentiment for the Eurozone countries) that should heat up the movement of this currency pair. USD/JPY soared to 108.40 in the Asian session today and then slid back to 107.76. Keep in focus the US retail sales and manufacturing data to define which way USD goes next. AUD/USD experienced some small gains in the course of the late session due to the minutes from the RBA’s meeting. We must admit that the minutes had a lesser effect on Aussie’s performance than the RBA’s statement itself. The latter document, unlike the former one, contains more information on the future of RBA’s monetary policy and in-depth analysis of the present economic situation of Australia. NZD/USD edged up to over 0.7140. Having failed to take hold at this point, Kiwi rolled back in the direction of 0.7100. It seems that consequences of the massive earthquake still weigh on the currency. Quarterly retail sales releases which are due to show up later today should drag quotes lower (consensus forecasts indicate tangible declines). The main focus of today’s session will on GBP/USD currency pair as we will receive a package of the UK inflation data (CPI, PPI input, HPI, inflation report hearing). Consensus forecasts indicate increases in the rate of inflation. At the present moment, GBP/USD is trading smoothly within 1.2530-1.2440 range waiting for some ground-shaking events to come (maybe Supreme Court decision on the UK government’s powers to invoke Article 50 scheduled for the beginning of December will be a trigger). More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11308

USD/JPY: yen faced with the "Crab" pattern 15/11/2016 On the USD/JPY daily chart, quotes came closer to the upper boundary of the upward trading channel. A breakout of resistance at 108.85 can open the way to 110.1 and increase risks of the implementation of the 161.8% target in the "Crab" inverted pattern. It corresponds to the 112.4 level. The nearest support is located near 106.75. On the USD/JPY hourly chart, the quotes are accelerating the pace of their rally. If the "bulls" manage to keep the quotes above 108.24% level, the target 200% in the AB = CD pattern will likely be fulfilled. Rebound from the upper boundary of the last upward channel will be a signal for opening long positions. Recommendation: BUY 106,75 SL 106,2 TP 109,9. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11307

Gold prices are under control of bears 15/11/2016 On the daily chart of gold, prices were stopped by the important support at $1210. It is located at 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the last mid-term upward wave. A successful attack of "bears" can lead to the implementation of the "Perfect Butterfly." Its 127.2% target is located near the $1150 level. The nearest resistance can be found near the $1,250 level. On the hourly chart of gold, until quotes rise to the lower boundary of the last upward trading channel ($1,275), "bears" will remain their control over the market. Resistance levels are located near the $1240 and $ 1260 levels. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11306

USD/JPY & US Retail Sales for October: Who can stop the US Dollar rally? 15/11/2016 Today at 13:30 GMT will be released the US retail sales for October and we’re expecting no changes from last reading of 0.6% in September. During the last data, we saw an increase in the number, following a decline posted in August, but market’s analysts are optimistic about further gains for October. This event is also expected to bring some hints about further topping or continuation in the US dollar index, which has been strengthening after Donald Trump’s victory as the new US president. Our technical view for USD/JPY at H1 chart remains bullish, as the pair remains well consolidated above the 50 SMA, but it’s reaching extreme levels to the upside. Currently, USD/JPY is trading around the 123.6% Fibo extension and one cannot rule out further advances towards the 110.03 level, if retail sales come better-than-expected. In a weak or dovish scenario, the pair is expected to start a corrective move until the 106.24 level. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11305

EUR/USD broke strong support level 1.0850 11/14/2016 EUR/USD broke strong support level 1.0850 Next sell target - 1.0700 EUR/USD continues to fall after the earlier breakout of the strong support level 1.0850 (which reversed the earlier waves (a), 2 and (i), as can be seen below). The breakout of the support level 1.0850 intensified the bearish pressure on this currency par – accelerating the active C-wave of the intermediate ABC correction (2) from the middle of April. EUR/USD is likely to fall to the next sell target at the support level 1.0700 (forecast price calculated for the completion of the active intermediate ABC correction (2)). This support level is also intersecting with the support trendline of the daily down channel from April. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11304

USD/JPY broke resistance zone 11/14/2016 USD/JPY broke resistance zone Next buy target - 109.00 USD/JPY has been rising sharply in the last few trading sessions inside the C-wave of the intermediate ABC correction (2) from the middle of August. The price today broke through the resistance zone lying at the intersection of the resistance level 107.50 (top of the earlier primary ABC correction ② from July) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous extended downward impulse from April. The breakout of this resistance zone is expected to accelerate the active impulse wave C. USD/JPY is expected to rise to the next buy target at the nearby resistance level 109.00 (standing close to 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the aforementioned downward impulse from April). More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11303