riki143

EUR/USD: correction may continue to the Clouds 11/255/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.0560; resistance – 1.0630. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 1.0630; SL — 1.0650; TP1 — 1.0570; TP2 – 1.0510. Reason: bearish mood of Ichimoku Cloud; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the lines are horizontal; the prices breaking out the Tenkan-Kijun resistance. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11458

USD/JPY: crab leads bulls to the north 11/25/2016 On the USD/JPY daily chart, "bulls" managed to test the resistance line located at 111.35 and pushed the quotes towards 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level formed from the last downward wave. The prices continue to rise towards the target 161.8% (119) in "Crab" inverted pattern. You may continue to buy on the pullbacks or on the breakout of the previously formed high. On the USD/JPY hourly chart, there is an acceleration of the uptrend. The next support levels are located near the 112.55 and 110.9 levels. If there are not tested, it will be a signal for the opening of the long positions. Recommendations: BUY 112,55 SL 112 TP1 114,25 TP2 116,8 TP3 119 BUY 110,9 TP1 114,25 TP2 116,8. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11456

Gold loses the firm ground 11/25/2016 On the daily chart of gold, quotes reached 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level formed from the last long-term upward wave. A breakout of the support located at $1172 can open the way towards $1150. There is target 127.2% in the "Perfect butterfly" pattern. On the hourly chart of gold, prices continue to move down towards the target 200% in the pattern AB = CD. It corresponds to the $1141 level. A rollback followed by the rebound from the upper boundary of the descending trading channel will be a signal for sales. Recommendations: SELL $1195 SL $1230 TP1 $1145 TP2 $1120, SELL $1210 SL $1230 TP $1145. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11455

Morning brief for November 25, 2016 11/25/2016 USD/JPY climbed above 113.90 overnight on rising 10-year US bond yields. Japanese inflation data came slightly higher than it was expected and ahead of the figure of the last month, but it is still very low to push BOJ to taper its accommodative monetary policy. EUR/USD slipped down yesterday in the countdown to Italy’s constitutional referendum scheduled for December 4. The euro rose to 1.0575 in the course of Asian session as 10-year US Treasuries had finally slowed down their pace. Later today we will receive goods trade balance data for the US (the consensus forecast indicates an extended divergence between American exports and imports), and flash services PMI. AUD/USD gained some point having risen to 0.7435 mainly of the rising prices of copper and iron ore. Kiwi moved upwards to 0.7025 in the cross with USD availing of the drop in the US Treasuries. USD/CAD slid down below 1.3480 due to the weakening of the greenback. Oil prices were mostly steady as investors are waiting for the next week's meeting of the OPEC for clarity on proposed output cut. GBP/USD didn’t make big moves on the session. The pair is slowly rising towards the next resistance line located at 1.2465. The trigger of today’s session is the British second estimate GDP. The reading should be bullish for the pound. Many strategists call on the market participants to give the pound a break. It has already weakened significantly since the UK voted to leave the EU on June 23. There is little reason to buy/sell the cable aggressively before any news on the UK/EU relationship surface. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11454

EUR/USD is moving towards “parity” 11/24/2016 According to SocGen strategists, the euro may reach the parity with the US dollar in the first quarter of 2017, before rising back to 1.09 by the end of 2017. There are several factors that can contribute to the EUR downfall: There is a threat of political tail risk and “splintering of Europe” in the end of this year and in 2017; “The repeating of the history”: after the US election, EUR/USD slumped below 1.06 the lowest level since ECB launched its first bond purchasing program in March 2015 and since Mario Draghi had signaled of the continuation of the easing policy a year ago. In the latest comments, the ECB President said that the QE tapering is unlikely in the near-term future and made us believe that the bank can introduce more easing measures in the upcoming months. Trump’s effect: the greenback spearheaded right after the newly elected US president laid out the specifics of its pro-growth and low-tax economic policies that should push the Fed to raise interest rates more often next year. Widening of the spread between Italian and German government bond yields is a proxy for political fragmentation in the currency union, according to SocGen’s analysts. They refer to the first quarter of 2013 when Italy’s center-left won the general election and the 5 Star Movement outpaced Mario Monti’s centrist coalition. In the tree weeks before the Italian election, EUR/USD slumped to 1.3194 from 1.3660. Then, the euro weakened even further to 1.2772 in the 4 weeks that followed the election results as Italian BTP/Bund spreads widened. As we countdown towards the Italian referendum, the euro is poised to a further depreciation against the greenback. Before the election of Trump SocGen anticipated a spike of the Fed funds rateof 1.25 – 1.50%, but now it looks for 1.75-2.0%. For the ECB SG’s strategists predict tapering will start in march with the objective of ending the banks’ asset purchase program in early 2018. Goldman Sachs Group Inc, in its top trade ideas for 2017 offered pretty much the same forecast for EUR/USD. Goldman Sachs’ strategists believe that the euro will sink to parity vs. US dollar over the next 12 months. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11446

Key option levels for Thursday, November 24th 11/24/2016 EUR/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 20 938 ? + 122 194 ? Closest resistance levels 1.0576; 1.0612; 1.0645; 1.0666 Closest support levels 1.0542(29?); 1.0505; 1.0467; 1.0413 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0542, with target points at 1.0505 and 1.0467 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0576 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0612 and 1.0645 GBP/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bearish Changes in the open interest + 248 ? + 163 ? Closest resistance levels 1.2452; 1.2480(71?); 1.2526; 1.2549 Closest support levels 1.2401; 1.2368; 1.2345; 1.2318 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2401, with target points at 1.2368 and 1.2345 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2452 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2480 and 1.2526 USD/JPY Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bearish Changes in the open interest + 818 ? + 2 385 ? Closest resistance levels 113.73; 114.05; 114.44; 114.89 Closest support levels 112.46; 112.07; 111.72; 111.47 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short USD/JPY below 112.46, with the target points at 112.07 and 111.72 Alternative scenario Moving above 113.73 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 114.05 and 114.44 More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11445

AUD/USD: aussie supported by Kijun-sen 11/24/2016 Technical levels: support – 0.7360/70; resistance – 0.7400, 0.7440. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 0.7400; SL — 0.7420; TP1 — 0.7350; TP2 — 0.7320. Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud; all lines of Ichimoku Indicator are horizontal; correctional golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are on the support of Kijun-sen. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11444

GBP/USD: ready to go 11/24/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.2405, 1.2370; resistance – 1.2490. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.2450; SL — 1.2430; TP1 — 1.2520; TP2 — 1.2610. 2. Sell — 1.2400; SL — 1.2420; TP1 — 1.2310; TP2 — 1.2230. Reason: narrowing bullish Ichimoku Cloud; a weak golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a support of Tenkan-sen, Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11443

GBP/USD: resistance waiting for bulls 11/24/2016 The pair is trading in a flat range along the Moving Averages. In this case, the price is likely going to rise towards the nearest resistance at 1.2511 – 1.2556. Meanwhile, if bulls be stopped here, there’ll be an option to have another decline in the direction of the closest support at 1.2352 – 1.2309. We’ve got a “Double Bottom”, which led to the last upward movement, so the price reached a resistance at 1.2476. If we see any bullish pattern in the few hours, the pair is likely going to test the next resistance at 1.2486 – 1.2507. However, if a pullback from this area happens, bears will probably try to test a support at 1.2376 – 1.2351. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11441

Morning brief for November 24,2016 11/24/2016 EUR/USD fell to 1.0520 overnight due to the US upbeat economic data, US bond yields hovering to their multi-year high. The market completely pricing in the Fed’s hike in December as traders’ expectations were totally justified after the release of November FOMC meeting minutes. Today American banks are on a holiday (Happy Thanksgiving, dear traders). So, we will focus on the Eurozone countries, waiting for the releases of German Ifo business climate, Gfk German consumer climate, and Belgian NBB business climate. At the present moment, the pair is hovering around 1.0545 level. GBP/USD slipped down towards 1.2420 in the course of the Asian session. Now the cable is paving its way towards the yesterday’s high at circa 1.2470. It continues to be one of the strongest currencies in crosses with USD since the election. On Wednesday, the cable boosted as Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond, presenting his Autumn Statement to parliament, said that there is an “urgent” need for Britain to tackle its long-term economic weaknesses. So, there will be the more fiscal stimulus from the government in the upcoming months. USD/CHF was the major mover of the Asian session as it almost reached the 1.0190 level on the unceasing USD strengthening. USD/JPY move up to 112.97 yesterday as we got strong US economic data releases and “hawkish” FOMC meeting minutes. At the present moment, the pair is trading around 112.70 level. It seems that the bullish phase that started after the US election is still intact and the next level to focus on is at 113.80. Today the pair should trade smoothly without any chops as there are no events/economic releases that could bring volatility to the chart. AUD and NZD both dribbled down a little against the USD. Traders will be watching for trade balance data coming from New Zealand in the course of this day to unravel the further moves of kiwi. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11440

EUR/USD: bears broke "Flag" 11/24/2016 The last “Flag” pattern has been broken, so the price reached a support at 1.0522. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance at 1.0568 – 1.0659. If we see a pullback from this area, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline towards the next support at 1.0493 – 1.0461. The price is consolidating between a resistance at 1.0565 and a support at 1.0522. At the same time, bulls are likely going to reach another resistance at 1.0600 – 1.0617 during the day. If a pullback from these levels happens, bears will probably try to get a support at 1.0522 – 1.0493. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11439

USD/CHF: franc is sliding down to the bottom 11/24/2016 On the USD/CHF daily chart, bulls managed to test the resistances at 1.009 and 1.017. Now they serve as supports. The rally towards 161.8% target in the "Crab" pattern continues. The "bulls" remain control over the market. In this situation, it is better to buy on pullbacks. On the USD/CHF hourly chart, there is an acceleration of the uptrend. The rollback towards the support at 1.0125 (target 127.2% in the pattern AB = CD) will be a signal for the opening of long positions. Recommendation: BUY 1,0125 SL 1,007 TP1 1,0275 TP2 1,08. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11438

USD/CAD: the US dollar regained its momentum 11/24/2106 On the USD/CAD daily chart, inability of "bulls" to test the resistance at 1.3272 (50% Fibonacci retracement level from the last downward wave) led to the correction. But "bears" failed to develop it, so, the initiative returned to their counterparts. The successful retest of this resistance can open the way towards 1,368 and 1,384 levels. [imghttps://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11437/Screenshot_2016_11_24_08_39_23.png[/img] On the USD/CAD hourly chart, there is an acceleration of the uptrend. A breakout of the resistance at 1.3575 can lead to the continuation of the rally. Recommendation: BUY 1,3575 SL 1,352 TP1 1,368 TP2 1,384. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11437

EUR/JPY & German IFO Business Climate: Dynamic resistance already found? 11/24/2016 Today at 09:00 GMT will be released German Ifo Business Climate, which should remain unchanged for November’s data at 110.5. Given to the current situation of Euro currency, this indicator should bring some volatility in the EUR-related pairs, as recent numbers had been showing an optimism among investors about the German economy’s outlook in a short and mid-term basis, but the country is still facing some kind of slowdown. Our technical overview for EUR/JPY at the daily chart is showing a strong bullish correction taking place and it seems that the pair is finding a top across the board. Currently, the 200 SMA is acting as a strong dynamic resistance and EUR/JPY may resume the bearish bias from this point. If that scenario happens, then we can expect a decline towards the 117.68 in a first degree. However, if resistance zone of 118.78 gives up, then a rally to the 120.81 is likely to happen. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11436

EUR/USD: wave [iii] going to end 11/23/2016 The price is declining in wave [iii]. It’s likely that bears are going to test -2/8 Murrey Math Level shortly. If it be broken, there’ll be an opportunity to see a correction. However, if bears just smash -2/8 MM Level, we could see the market even lower. Wave (iv) formed a double zigzag, so we have a bearish impulse in wave (v) in progress. If we see a pullback from -2/8 MM Level, there’ll be time for wave iv. Meanwhile, if this level be broken, we’re going to see a new Murrey Math's indication. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11435

Review on the book of Bill Williams 11/23/2016 “Trading chaos” is not just a book that describes one of the numerous ways of trading. It’s an exhaustive guidance for novice traders. Bill Williams compares his writing with the fundamental esoteric teaching because it contains not only actual trading strategies and techniques but also helps traders to cognize their inner world, their mind and the actual nature of financial markets. The first chapter reveals the principles of the market’s operation. According to Bill Williams, the market like everything else in the universe always follows the path of the least resistance. Its movements are irrational, chaotic, but even in the market’s turbulences and unorganized fluctuations the logical patterns can be found. The task of the trader is to identify these patterns and suck advantage out of them. In the following chapters, the author draws a map of trading. Virtually, he describes the life journey of a trader from being a novice to becoming an expert trader. Williams tries to convince his readers that trading skills can be obtained only through the constant practice and learning, through trial and numerous errors sometimes correspondent with financial losses. In the end, having raised a good many of bumps, trader becomes a real expert who not only understands but also feels the market. Williams’ description of the life of an experienced trader reminded me the Noble Eightfold Path of Buddhist who goes through numerous practices and sufferings to attain nirvana. In “Williamsonian” version, nirvana is obtained experience that promises foolproof trades with big profits. Besides this esoteric stuff, the book contains valuable information about Elliott waves, MACD indicator, fractals and some other technical indicators. If you’re not really interested in psychology and revelation of market’s behavior, you can delve into reading all these technical things and upgrade your trading skills. DOWNLOAD THE BOOK More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11434

USD/JPY: lot of bearish patterns 11/23/2016 We’ve got an “Engulfing” and a “High Wave”, which both led to continue the current local correction. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the nearest support once again. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s a possible “High Wave”, but this pattern hasn’t been confirmed yet. The price is consolidating on the one-hour chart. The 13 Moving Average is acting as a support. If we see a pullback from this line, the pair is likely going rise, but then bears will probably try to reverse the market. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11433

AUD/CAD reached sell target 0.9900 11/23/2016 AUD/CAD reached sell target 0.9900 Next buy target - 1.0100 AUD/CAD recently reversed up from the support zone lying between the support level 0.9900 (previous sell target set in our earlier forecast for this currency pair), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward impulse from May, as can be seen below. The upward reversal from the aforementioned support zone completed the previous minor correction 2, which belongs to the active intermediate impulse wave (3) from August. AUD/CAD is likely to rise to the next buy target at the resistance level 1.0100. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11432

EUR/CAD reached sell target 1.4300 11/23/2016 EUR/CAD reached sell target 1.4300 Next buy target – 1.4420 EUR/CAD today reversed up from the support zone lying between the powerful, long-term support level 1.4300 (which stopped the previous waves 2, (ii) and 4 and which was set as the sell target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair) and the lower daily Bollinger Band. Given the strength of the support level 1.4300 and the oversold reading on the daily Stochastic indicator - EUR/CAD can be expected to correct up from the current levels toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.4420. Buy stop-loss can be placed below the support level 1.4200. More; https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11431

EUR/USD: "High Wave" pushing price higher 11/23/2016 There’s a “Doji”, which hasn’t been confirmed yet. The 13 Moving Average is acting as a resistance, so the price is likely going to test the nearest support in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, the last “Engulfing” doesn’t have a confirmation, so right after the second test of the closest support bulls are likely going to achieve a resistance nearby. The price is consolidating along the 34 Moving Average. Also, we’ve got a “High Wave”, which has been confirmed enough. In this case, the pair is likely going to approach the nearest support line during the day. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11430

Key option levels for Wednesday, November 23th 11/23/2016 EUR/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Neutral Changes in the open interest + 75 164 ? + 32 336 ? Closest resistance levels 1.0644; 1.0665; 1.0687; 1.0722 Closest support levels 1.0615; 1.0596; 1.0562; 1.0512 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0615, with target points at 1.0596 and 1.0562 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0644 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0665 and 1.0687 GBP/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bearish Changes in the open interest + 64 ? - 119 ? Closest resistance levels 1.2430; 1.2454/65; 1.2518; 1.2572 Closest support levels 1.2378; 1.2347; 1.2301; 1.2240 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2378, with target points at 1.2347 and 1.2301 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2430 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2454/65 and 1.2518 USD/CAD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bullish Changes in the open interest + 243 ? + 212 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3455; 1.3495; 1.3534; 1.3587 Closest support levels 1.3434; 1.3410; 1.3392; 1.3365 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3455, with the target points at 1.3495 and 1.3534 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3434 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3410 and 1.3392 More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11429

GBP/USD: ahead of the UK Autumn Statement 11/23/2016 What is the Autumn Statement and why it’s so important? It's the Chancellor's second-biggest speech of the year after the Budget. Philip Hammond, the British the Chancellor of the Exchequer, will come to the House of Commons to reveal the state of the economy and outline the government's spending plans. When to watch? The Autumn Statement will be at 2.30 pm (Metatrader time). What to expect? Philip Hammond will have to admit the largest deterioration in British public finance since 2011. The chancellor faces a difficult set of choices, with little wiggle room, given the still gloomy path ahead for the UK economy. So, this Autumn Statement is likely to be a cautious update to the government’s spending plans, most likely disappointing for the market awaiting a Trumpstyle splash of fiscal stimulus. New policies will probably be focused on helping out the JAMs (Just About Managing) and on the promotion of the business productivity. Also, the Government might lessen the degree of austerity (but this easing is expected to be rather moderate). GBP/USD levels to watch TD waits for further GBP strength despite the expecting disappointment followed by the Autumn Statement. It favors tactical longs in the pound with an initial target of 1.2674 against support at 1.2365, but the primary trend remains bearish for GBP/USD overall. Lloyds Bank is also positive in relation to pound saying that the prices might test the resistance at 1.2445, followed by 1.2510, whereas on the downside, there are several supports located at 1.2350 and 1.2200. TB Bank Securities strategists believe that GBP will likely consolidate on the release. UOB is also neutral on the GBP/USD saying that the pair will likely be trading choppily in the range of 1.2300 – 1.2600 in the near-term. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11428

AUD/USD: aussie finished the local correction 11/23/2016 Technical levels: support – 0.7390, 0.7360; resistance – 0.7440. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 0.7430/40; SL — 0.7460; TP1 — 0.7360; TP2 — 0.7320. Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud but there is a rising Senkou Span A; dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are above Kijun-sen; strong resistance near 0.7440. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11427

GBP/USD: on support of Tenkan and Kijun 11/23/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.2405, 1.2370; resistance – 1.2490. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.2420; SL — 1.2400; TP1 — 1.2520; TP2 — 1.2610. 2. Sell — 1.2360; SL — 1.2380; TP1 — 1.2310; TP2 — 1.2230. Reason: narrowing bullish Ichimoku Cloud; a weak golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a support of Tenkan-sen, Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11426

EUR/USD: bearish trend may continue 11/23/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.0610; resistance – 1.0650. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 1.0600; SL — 1.0620; TP1 — 1.0570; TP2 – 1.0510. Reason: bearish mood of Ichimoku Cloud; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; strong resistance of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11425