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Morning brief for December 16 12/16/2016 EUR/USD edged up to 1.0425 in the early hours of the Asian session after hitting 1.0366 overnight. USD was flexing its muscles after the Fed raised the interest rate and projected triple hike in 2017. The conclusion of the EU summit was treated lightly by the market (there were no evident price movements). Eurozone final annual CPI and US housing market data will take center stage today. USD/JPY spiked to 118.65 yesterday. In the course of the Asian session, it rollbacked to 118.25. News agencies offered some support to the weakening yen. The Wall Street Journal said that the BOJ might be willing to recourse to tightening next year to eliminate the detrimental effect of crucial divergence between the US Treasury yields and Japan’s 10-year government bonds. Bloomberg published opinions of high-profile analysts saying that Japan’s newly introduced policy program should finally shake the country’s economy out of a pattern of expansion and contraction. Higher oil prices, the weaker yen and positive boost in the Japanese equity market should point to a better outlook for inflation in 2017. GBP/USD slumped to 1.2375 yesterday after the BoE Monetary Policy Committee members maintained the interest rate at 0.25% and said that they may respond in either direction (recourse to easing/tightening) to reach 2% inflation rate target. This morning the pound managed to recoup some of its losses having surged above 1.2420. Both Aussie and Kiwi rose vs. the US dollar. USD/CAD failed to break resistance at 1.3340 and went lower to 1.3320 on the rising oil prices. Brent oil futures rose after Kuwait (one of the OPEC members) notified customers that it is going to cut supplies from January in accordance with the recently signed production cut deal. Today’s focus will be on Canada’s foreign securities purchases report. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11738

USD/CHF: bulls move higher 12/16/2016 On the USD/CHF daily chart, prices continue their rally. A rollback towards 1.012 allowed opening long positions. Crab pattern is still relevant. There are intermediate targets near the 1.037, 1.049 и 1.077 marks. Steadiness of the uptrend doesn't raise doubts, so, the rollbacks or breakout of the previously formed maximums can lead to the opening of the new long positions, or to the extension of the previously opened ones. On the USD/CHF hourly chart, the main support is located near the 1.0195 mark. The return of quotes to this support followed by the rebound from it will be a signal for the opening of the long positions. Recommendations: hold longs formed from the 1,012 level, BUY 1,0195 SL 1,014 TP 1,037. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11737

Gold price moves lower 12/16/2016 On the daily chart of gold, a breakout of the lower boundary of the trading channel allows traders to open short positions. Prices move in the direction of 161.8% target in the Butterfly pattern. It corresponds to the $1,090 mark. The outlook for the gold is still bearish, so traders should consider selling on the rise. On the hourly chart of gold, if target 261,8% is fulfilled, there can be a rollback towards $1,143-1,144. There is 88,6% target in the Bat reversal pattern. Recommendations: hold shorts formed from $1160, SELL $1144 SL $1165 TP $1095. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11736

Some forecasts ahead of the BOE meeting 12/15/2016 On Thursday at 7 am 12:00 GMT+2 the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision. Many strategists believe that the BoE will maintain its current monetary stance unchanged in line with consensus forecasts and market pricing. The focus will be on the minutes as there won’t be a press conference and updated inflation report. At the November meeting, the BOE shifted from an easing bias to a neutral bias saying that the bank is ready to respond in either direction. Today we got upbeat inflation data from the UK. The year-to-year CPI rate rose to 1.4% from 0.9%. The core rate ticked up to 1.4% in November. Average weekly earnings are expected to be steady. There shouldn’t be any changes in the unemployment rate as well (it is currently at its cyclical low level of 4.8%). The number of jobless claims is expected to decrease (positive impact on the currency). Signs of strong wage and price growth, strong labor data may push the board to shift its monetary outlook to the hawkish side. Despite strong economic data, the BOE will unlikely recourse to tightening at this meeting because of the elevated political uncertainty over the “Brexit” process. Go through the highlights of the BOE Governor Mark Carney speech tomorrow. The main topic of his speech has nothing to do with the BOE's monetary policy, but we would recommend to keep it in focus. Who knows, maybe Carney gives us some clues on Thursday's interest rate decision. On Thursday, the pound may experience some additional pressure. The leaders of EU countries minus Theresa May for the first time will discuss the process of negotiation with the UK. The communique of the meeting should formalize how the EU members conduct themselves in the next 2 years. So, this document may send some wobbles to the technical charts with GBP. If the EU countries will adopt a tough stance toward the UK, the pound may be seriously hit. More: [url=https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11692]https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11692[/u}RL]

EUR/USD broke long-term support level 1.0500 12/16/2016 EUR/USD broke long-term support level 1.0500 Next sell target - 1.0370 EUR/USD today broke through the powerful support zone surrounding the major long-term support level 1.0500. This support zone was strengthened by the lower support trendline of the wide daily down channel from May. The breakout of this support zone accelerated the active C-wave of the intermediate ABC correction from the start of May. EUR/USD is expected to fall further to the next sell target at the next support level 1.0370 (target price calculated for the completion of the active C-wave). Sell stop-loss can be placed above the aforementioned resistance level 1.0500. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11735

GBP/USD falling inside minor ©-wave 12/16/2016 GBP/USD falling inside minor ©-wave Next sell target – 1.2350 GBP/USD continues to fall inside the minor ©-wave which started earlier from the resistance zone lying between the pivotal resistance level 1.2720 (which also stopped the previous impulse wave 3), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction level of the previous sharp downward impulse from September. The downward reversal from this resistance zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Evening Star. GBP/USD is expected to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 1.2350 (which stopped the (-wave of the active primary ABC correction ? from October). More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11734

USD/JPY: bulls reached the "Window" 12/16/2016 The price is still rising, so we don’t have any reversal pattern so far. However, the market reached the upper “Window”, so there’s an opportunity to have a bearish pattern. If so, the pair is likely going to form a local downward correction towards the nearest support. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s a “Three Methods” pattern, so bulls are probably going to move on. The last “Three Methods” has done such a great job, so we have a new high on the one-hour chart. At the same time, if we see any reversal pattern, bears are likely going to test the closest support. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11733

EUR/USD: bears free to push the market even lower 12/16/2016 We’ve got a “Hammer”, but his pattern hasn’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, the market is likely going to decline in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s a bearish “Engulfing”, which hasn’t been confirmed, so bears will probably try to push the market even lower. The price has broken the minimum from 29.11.2015, so a confirmation for the last bullish “Doji” was canceled. In this case, the price is likely going to continue falling down until any reversal pattern forms. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11732

Banks' overview of the Fed's rate decision] 12/16/2016 The Federal Reserve finally awakened from its sound sleep and did raise its interest rates for the first time in 2016. The board hiked the target range by 25bp to 0.50%-0.75% from 0.25%-0.50% previously. Summary of economic projections indicated a triple hike in 2017. Yellen took a rather cautious tone in the course of the press conference saying that the SEP implies only gradual rate hikes with a careful eye to the state of the US economy and actual actions of the government. CIBC The statement was hawkish enough to raise market’s expectations over the multiple hikes in the upcoming years. Strategists forecast three rate increases in 2017 and two in 2018 as the Fed turned out to be more preemptive in its anticipation of the expansionary fiscal policy. Barclays The FOMC found its new monetary stance accommodative to the present state of the US economy, contributing to a further strengthening of the labor market conditions and maintenance of targeted inflation rate. In the summary of economic projections, the Fed mentioned the probability of a triple rate hike in 2017. The Fed turned out to be more hawkish than the market had expected. Having admitted the Fed’s hawkishness”, Barclays dents the market’s enthusiasm saying that these hikes are possible if only Trump does manage to fulfill its pledges (cut taxes, enacts tariffs and other trade restrictive policies in the first months of his presidential term. SEB The US dollar spearheaded on Wednesday after the FOMC meeting. The strategists note that the Fed’s economic projections did the main job, as the rate hike decision had been fully priced in ahead of the meeting. The median of the dot plots is now suggesting key rates at 2.1 % by the end of 2018. The inflation target should be reached in 2018 according to the Fed’s projections. The unemployment rate is expected to be below the NAIRU (Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment) for a rather long period of time. Yellen’s press conference balanced the hyper-hawkish summary of economic projections. The chairwoman said that some FOMC participant hadn’t incorporated the change in fiscal policy in their projections; that it is too early to assess the effects of the anticipated fiscal stimulus. Yellen admitted that the actual Fed’s response to any policy changes is still unknown. Bank of America Merrill Lynch Strategists note that the dots changed indeed, but the Fed’s economic forecasts remained almost the same with stronger growth and slightly lower unemployment rate. The statement was hawkish; nobody questions it, but at the same time it maintained a bit cautious tone. The Fed will continue to weigh the risks before undertaking any further tightening measures. The analysts’ forecasts are following: only one hike in 2017 and triple hike in 2018. Barclays believes that the Fed’s monetary stance will continue to support USD in 2017. SocGen The bank continues to bet on just 2 hikes in 2017 given the remaining uncertainty with respect to fiscal policy. Danske Bank Analysts believe that the USD will extend its gains in the near-term having propped up by the US economic growth and rate expectations against rates-sensitive currencies such as the JPY. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11729

Key option levels for Thursday, December 15th 12/16/2016 EUR/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 24 684 ? + 135 224 ? Closest resistance levels 1.0614; 1.0660; 1.0698; 1.0725 Closest support levels 1.0455; 1.0431; 1.0405; 1.0377 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0455, with target points at 1.0431 and 1.0405 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0614 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0660 and 1.0698 GBP/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bearish Changes in the open interest - 20 ? + 180 ? Closest resistance levels 1.2661; 1.2690; 1.2727; 1.2754 Closest support levels 1.2544; 1.2515; 1.2498; 1.2478 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2544, with target points at 1.2515 and 1.2498 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2661 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2690 and 1.2727 USD/JPY Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Neutral Changes in the open interest + 846 ? + 1 180 ? Closest resistance levels 117.72; 117.98; 118.29; 118.61 Closest support levels 115.22; 114.23; 113.65; 112.94 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 117.72, with the target points at 117.98 and 118.29 Alternative scenario Moving below 115.22 can be considered as a signal to sell the pair, with target at 114.23 and 113.65 USD/CAD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Bullish Changes in the open interest + 329 ? - 105 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3284; 1.3324; 1.3353; 1.3390 Closest support levels 1.3179; 1.3142; 1.3116; 1.3087 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3284, with the target points at 1.3324 and 1.3353 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3179 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3142 and 1.3116 More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11728

EUR/USD: bearish wave (i) arrived 12/15/2016 Wave [iii] has started, so we’ve got a new low here. Previously, wave 2 ended in a form of a flat. So, wave [iii] of 3 is likely going to be continued in the short term. The main intraday target is 0/8 MM Level. As we can see on the M30 chart, we’ve got a double zigzag in wave [ii]. Also, there’s a bearish impulse in wave (i) of [iii]. In this case, the price is likely going to form wave (ii) during the day. If a pullback from 1/8 MM Level happens afterwards, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline in the direction of -2/8 MM Level. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11727

GBP/USD: Moving Average acted as a support 12/15/2016 There’s an upward “Wedge”, which was broken yesterday. The 89 Moving Average acted as a support. Therefore, the pair is likely going to rise in the short term, so we should keep an eye on the nearest resistance at 1.2584 – 1.2619 as a possible intraday target. If a pullback from this area happens later on, there’ll be an opportunity to see another decline towards a support at 1.2476 – 1.2418. The last “Tripe Top” pattern led to massive decline, which was stopped by a support at 1.2507. So, the price is likely going to test the closest resistance at 1.2584 during the day. If we have a pullback from this level, bears will have a chance to push the price even lower. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11726

EUR/USD: "Rectangle" helped bears 12/15/2016 There’s a “Triple Top”, so the market has plunged. Finally, bears faced a support at 1.0461, so we’ve got a local “Thorn”. In this case, the price is likely going to test a resistance at 1.0552 – 1.0594. If we see a pullback from this area, bears will probably try to deliver a new low. Bears broke all Moving Averages on the one-hour chart. However, we’ve got a “V-Bottom”, so the market is likely going to reach the nearest resistance between the levels 1.0552 – 1.0590 in the short term. Considering a possible pullback from these levels, there’s an opportunity to have another decline very soon. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11724

Morning brief for December 15 12/15/2016 The US dollar roared higher after the Fed raised rate for the first time in year. It jumped on the headline and then continued its rally as Yellen endorsed the dot path (three hikes in the upcoming year). Two-year US bonds yields rose more than 10 basis points to 1.2670 – the highest level since 2009. Ready, steady, buy!!! EUR/USD dropped to 1.04650 in the early hours of Asian session, then, it found some support around 1.0510. The euro should linger at this point according to analytical prognoses. The US dollar/euro parity is within hailing distance. USD/JPY popped up to 117.85 on the session, then, retreated to 117.45. The weakening of the yen, however, cushioned Japanese stocks. Earlier this morning we got upbeat November employment data from Australia that helped Aussie to lift up its head after the recent downfall and rise to 0.7425 from 0.7380. Kiwi slumped to 0.7075 after the US dollar ravaging surge. Then, NZD/USD moved higher to 0.7100 following the Aussie’s example. USD/CAD moved higher to 1.3322 due to the broader USD strength and falling oil prices. Later today keep in focus the bunch of the US economic data reflecting the situation in manufacturing sector, labor market and identifying the monthly change in the consumer prices. Also, we should get a manufacturing sales report from Canada. Today’s focus will be on the BOE’s policy and rate announcement. Many strategists expect the BoE to stay on hold and maintain its current monetary stance. Yesterday we got rather strong labor market releases that may influence the BOE’s decision today. GBP/USD slumped to 1.2510 on the Fed’s rate announcement. Earlier this morning it edged up to 1.2530. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11723

NZD/USD: Kiwi faced with wedge 12/15/2016 On the NZD/USD daily chart, a short position opened at 0.7187 is still relevant. "Bears" launched a counterattack and revived hope for the implementation of the "Head and shoulders" pattern. The further movement of Kiwi will depend on the test of the diagonal support - the lower boundary of the upward trading channel. On the NZD/USD hourly chart, there is a final stage of formation of 5-0 and an expanding wedge patterns. A successful test of the lower border of the upward trading channel can lead to the restoration of the downtrend. Recommendation: hold shorts formed from the 0,7187 level. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11722

USD/CAD: bulls meet market's expectations 12/15/2016 On the USD/CAD daily chart, prices rebounded from the lower boundary of the upward trading channel and activated the pending order (BUY 1,308). This allowed us to open a long position and take some profits (TP1 1,3275). If the "bulls" manage to consolidate above the important 1.3306 level, the rally may continue. On the USD/CAD hourly chart, the targets of the Shark pattern were fulfilled. There is a transformation of this pattern into the 5-0 pattern. If bulls fail to test resistances at 1.3335 and 1.3395, it will be a signal for the attack of bears. If bulls manage to break out the 1.3531 level, there can be a restoration of the uptrend. Recommendations: we should change TP2 on the long positions opened at 1,308 to 1,3395, BUY 1,3531 SL 1,3476 TP1 1,37 TP2 1,3835. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11721

AUD/USD: aussie going down to negative zone 12/15/2016 Technical levels: support – 0.7380, 0.7360; resistance – 0.7445. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 0.7445; SL — 0.7465; TP1 — 0.7360; TP2 — 0.7340. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud with falling Senkou Span A and B; a cancelled golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and falling lines; the prices are in a negative zone. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11720

GBP/USD: pound have lost the positions 12/15/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.2540, 1.2500; resistance – 1.2570. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 1.2570; SL — 1.2590; TP1 — 1.2500; TP2 — 1.2440. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but falling Senkou Span A; a cancelled golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and falling Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; a strong support of Senkou Span B. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11719

USD/JPY after Fed's rate hike by 25 bps: Heading towards 119.00? 12/15/2016 During Wednesday’s session, the Federal Reserve announced the highly expected rate hike by 25 basis points and the central bank gave hints that three more hikes in 2017, which helped to strengthen the US dollar across the board and also, US stocks managed to do a pullback. Fed’s words were hawkish-than-expected, amid the markets had been pricing an increase in the benchmark interest rates. Yellen’s rhetoric was about dot plot and future steps of the central bank, in a new environment with the US-elected president, Donald Trump. Our technical outlook for USD/JPY at the daily chart is strongly bullish and now it’s targeting the 118.19 resistance zone. The Fed was beyond that move and absolutely, the pair found the needed catalyst to boost the bullish rally. It’s highly likely that USD/JPY finds a strong sell zone around the 120.00 neighbourhood and we can expect a corrective move towards the 115.00 on a mid-term basis. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11718

EUR/USD reversed from support zone 12/14/2016 EUR/USD reversed from support zone Next buy target - 1.0700 EUR/USD continues to rise after the pair earlier reversed up from the support zone lying between the strong support level 1.0530 (which also previously reversed the pair sharply at the end of November) and the lower daily Bollinger Band. The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bullish Engulfing. Given the clear bullish divergence that can be seen on the daily Stochastic indicator – EUR/USD can be expected to rise further toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.0700. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11717

USD/CHF reached buy target 1.0200 12/14/2016 USD/CHF reached buy target 1.0200 Next sell target – 1.0020 USD/CHF continues to fall strongly – after the price earlier reversed down from the major resistance level 1.0200 (which stopped the earlier minor impulse wave 3 and which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The resistance zone near the resistance level 1.0200 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band. Given the bearish divergence on the daily RSI indicator and the strength of the resistance level 1.0200 - USD/CHF can be expected to correct down further to the next sell target at the support level 1.0020 (low of the previous minor correction 4 from the start of December). More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11716

USD/JPY: bears going to deliver new local low 12/14/2016 We’ve got an “Engulfing” pattern, which has been confirmed. Also, the 13 Moving Average is acting as a support. In this case, the market is likely going to test the nearest support, which could be a departure point for another bullish price movement. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a “Shooting Star”, but this pattern remains unconfirmed. Therefore, there’s an opportunity to have the second test of the closest resistance. There’s a “Last Engulfing” pattern, which has a strong confirmation. Under this circumstances, the pair is likely going to decline in the direction of the nearest support level during the day. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11715

EUR/USD: bullish "Doji" 12/14/2016 There’s a bearish “Harami” on the 34 Moving Average. So, the market is likely going to decline towards the nearest support. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another upward price movement. As we can see on the Daily chart, we’ve got an “Engulfing” at the local low. If this pattern confirms, bulls are likely going to push the pair even higher. We’ve got a “Tweezers” and a “Shooting Star”, which both have been formed on the nearest “Window”. Also, there’s a “Doji” at the last low. Therefore, the price is likely going to test the closest resistance once again. Considering a possible pullback from this level, there’s a chance to have another decline soon. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11714

EUR/USD: zigzag in wave [ii] 12/14/2016 We’ve got a flat in wave 2, which led to form a bearish impulse in wave . Considering a possible ending of wave [ii], bears are likely going to deliver wave [iii] of 3 in the short term. If -2/8 MM Level be broken, we’ll have a new levels indication. There’s a zigzag in wave [ii]. Previously, a bearish impulse in wave was formed. In this case, wave (i) is likely going to be continued during the day. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11711

Key option levels for Wednesday, December 14th 12/14/2016 EUR/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 41 847 ? + 83 741 ? Closest resistance levels 1.0676; 1.0713; 1.0746; 1.0770 Closest support levels 1.0603; 1.0574; 1.0537; 1.0490 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0603, with target points at 1.0574 and 1.0537 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0676 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0713 and 1.0746 USD/JPY Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 382 ? + 404 ? Closest resistance levels 115.15; 115.37; 115.55; 115.96 Closest support levels 114.27; 113.51; 113.02; 112.73 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short USD/JPY below 114.27, with the target points at 113.51 and 113.02 Alternative scenario Moving above 115.15 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 115.37 and 115.55 USD/CAD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bullish Changes in the open interest + 137 ? + 173 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3127; 1.3163; 1.3184; 1.3210 Closest support levels 1.3065; 1.3038; 1.3019; 1.2968 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long(?) USD/CAD above 1.3127, with the target points at 1.3163 and 1.3184 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3065 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3038 and 1.3019 More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11710