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AUD/JPY reached buy target 87.70 12/21/2016 AUD/JPY reached buy target 87.70 Next sell target – 84.60 AUD/JPY has been falling in the last few trading sessions inside the minor corrective wave (ii) – which started earlier this month – when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone lying at the intersection of the upper resistance trendline of the daily up channel from June, upper daily Bollinger Band and the resistance level 87.70 (which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). AUD/JPY can be expected to fall further to the next sell target at the key support level 84.60, standing close to the 50% Fibonacci correction level of the previous sharp upward impulse (i) from the middle of November. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11801

USD/JPY: Moving Average going to act as a support 12/21/2016 There’s a “Shooting Star”, which has been confirmed enough. So, the price is likely going to test the 21 Moving Average in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, there isn’t any reversal pattern so far, but we’ve got a pattern similar to a “Three Methods”. In this case, bulls are likely going to test the last high. We’ve got a bearish correction, which is taking place on the one-hour chart. Also, there’re a “Tweezers” and a “Harami”, which both have been confirmed enough. So, if a pullback from the 55 Moving Average happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish rally. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11800

EUR/USD: bearish "Tweezers" 12/21/2016 We’ve got an “Engulfing”, but a confirmation of this pattern is a quite weak. Anyway, bulls are likely going to test the 13 Moving Average in the short term. If we see a pullback from this line, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a “High Wave”. If this pattern confirms, we’re going to have an upward correction. The last “Harami” pattern stopped the bearish rally, but we’ve got a “Tweezers” at the local high. Therefore, the market is likely going to decline during the day. If any bullish pattern arrives afterwards, there’ll be an option to have a new local high. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11799

Key option levels for Wednesday, December 21th 12/21/2016 EUR/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 37 146 ? - 51 577 ? Closest resistance levels 1.0448; 1.0498; 1.0519; 1.0545/60 Closest support levels 1.0391; 1.0372; 1.0346/31; 1.0313 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0391, with target points at 1.0372 and 1.0346 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0448 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0498 and 1.0519 GBP/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 150 ? + 447 ? Closest resistance levels 1.2445; 1.2478; 1.2500; 1.2527 Closest support levels 1.2338; 1.2318; 1.2295; 1.2267 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2338, with target points at 1.2318 and 1.2295 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2445 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2478 and 1.2500 USD/JPY Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Neutral Changes in the open interest - 8 ? + 363 ? Closest resistance levels 117.70; 118.05; 118.41; 118.76 Closest support levels 116.90; 116.40; 116.04; 115.61 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short USD/JPY below 116.90, with the target points at 116.40 and 116.04 Alternative scenario Moving above 117.70 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 118.05 and 118.41 More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11798

USD: long-term projections from banks 12/21/2016 BNP Paribas => questions USD growth in the upcoming future BNPP strategists call on traders to be watchful as central banks don’t always act in line with their projections (flashback: the Fed projected triple hike in 2017 at its last meeting). Some hurdles might appear on the greenback’s way to the Mount Olympus. BNPP strategists believe that acceleration of the US dollar’s pace towards the new highs might derail the Fed’s tightening plans. Treasury concerns. Trump administration can raise concerns about the export implications of a stronger USD. So, the “strong dollar policy” might be questioned, and the administration might modify its expansionary plans which have already been well priced in by the market participants. Other central bank response to the Fed’s tightening. The ECB may signal a tapering of its asset purchase programme by the end of 2017, especially if the euro goes down too fast. At the present time, the euro came too close to the banks’ EUR/USD parity target. The same can happen with the BoJ’s zero target for 10-year JGP yields. The Bank of Japan might allow its yields move higher if the yen weakens significantly against USD. TD Bank => bullish outlook TD analysts are bullish on the USD. They list a few fundamental factors that can continue pushing USD higher. “Rising real and nominal rates in the US against the rest of the majors”; Anticipation of the fiscal stimulus in the US; Divergence in business cycles and varying timeframes for closing output gaps. The bank is long USD/CAD expecting it to move towards 1.3650. AUD/USD should go lower, according to TD analysts, and reach the 0.7150 mark. Deutsche Bank => bullish The bank hints at a border USD strength. The DB strategists believe that Donald Trump’s and Paul Ryan’s “border tax adjustment” proposal should underpin the USD growth. The proposal would tax US imports at the corporate income tax rate and exempt income earned from exports from any taxation. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11797

GBP/USD: bulls going to test Moving Averages 12/21/2016 Bears faced a support at 1.2309, which led to form a “V-Bottom” pattern, so an upward correction was started. In this case, the market is likely going to test a resistance at 1.2418 – 1.2451 in the short term. Considering the previously formed “Wedge”, there’s an opportunity to have another decline afterwards. So, we should keep an eye on the next support at 1.2309 – 1.2270 as a possible intraday target. We’ve got a “V-Bottom”, so the price is rising. So, bulls are likely going to achieve the 55 Moving Average in the short term. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be a chance to have a bearish price movement towards a support at 1.2309 – 1.2270. MORE: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11793

Morning brief for December 21 12/21/2016 EUR/USD edged up to 1.0410 from yesterday’s low of 1.0350. But it happened due to the retreat in the dollar and not Eurozone macroeconomic releases/data flows that could support the euro. So, we see more downside going forward. Politics and terrorism will be the key drivers of the pair in the nearest future. Berlin crash in Germany, horrific attack in Switzerland and assassination in Turkey reflect growing populism and hatred in relation to immigrants. There is also another threat that looming on the horizon – Italy’s fragile banking sector. The Italian government has recently asked Parliament a permission to borrow money to bail-out the banks if the latter ones fail to raise sufficient funding. USD/JPY hampered at 118 and retreated to 117.42 overnight. However, in the course of the Asian session, the US dollar managed to regain control over the market and rose to 117.60. It is a very hard time for the yen. Yesterday the Bank of Japan left its monetary stance unchanged with its short-term interest rate target at -0.1%. Also, the board decided to extend its asset-purchasing program and didn’t mention the probability of its tapering. The recent weakening of the yen didn’t spark talk of tapering, the BOJ adopted a wait-and-see attitude to check what happened with the yen after the New Year vacations. AUD/USD managed to rebound from its extremely low levels overnight to 0.7275, but then failed to hold its positions and retreated to 0.7255. Aussie remains to be very vulnerable to commodity prices, subdued growth of Chinese economy and weakening of the renminbi. The Reserve Bank of Australia is in no haste to raise interest rate being unsatisfied with economic releases. NZD/USD is trading along the 0.6925 level. New Zealand dairy prices slumped for the first time in 2 months, the trade deficit shrank but in the lesser extent than it was anticipated. Today we will receive New Zealand GDP update. The consensus forecast indicates a slight decrease in GDP number, so, Kiwi may extend its losses. GBP/USD moved higher to 1.2385 yesterday, then it retreated to 1.2370. The pound is still under pressure on the back of the uncertainty over the Brexit process. 2016 was all about whether the Brexit can happen or not, next year everybody will be focused on the type of the new relationships between the EU and the UK. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11792

EUR/USD: "V-Bottom" launched bullish correction 12/21/2016 The price is still consolidating under a resistance at 1.0461. Also, there’s a “V-Bottom” pattern, so the market is likely going to test an area between the levels 1.0461 – 1.0506 in the short term. If a pullback from these levels happens, bears will be free to launch another decline. The last “Flag” pattern has been broken, but a “V-Botton” arrived afterwards. Therefore, bulls are likely going to reach the 89 Moving Average soon. If we see a pullback from this line, there’ll be an opportunity to have a downward movement in the direction of a support at 1.0365 – 1.0340. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11791

GBP/USD: correction to Tenkan-sen 12/21/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.2360; resistance – 1.2390. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 1.2390; SL — 1.2410; TP1 — 1.2320; TP2 — 1.2300. Reason: bearish character of Ichimoku Cloud, falling Senkou Span A; a dead cross of falling Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are in the correction to Tenkan-sen; canceling the market’s oversold. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11790

EUR/USD: downtrend may continue 12/21/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.0380; resistance – 1.0415, 1.0450. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 1.0400; SL — 1.0420; TP1 — 1.0300; TP2 – 1.0260. Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud and falling Senkou Span A; a dead cross of falling Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; strong resistance of Tenkan-sen. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11789

USD/CAD: Loonie fulfilled the target 12/21/2016 On the USD/CAD daily chart, target at 1.3395 has been fulfilled. If the "bulls" manage to update the December peak, the rally towards the upper boundary of the upward trading channel will continue. If prices drop below the support at 1.3306, it will be a signal for the start of the "bearish" counterattack. On USD/CAD hourly chart, there is a final stage of formation of the 5-0 pattern. If prices return to the 50% Fibo level formed from the CD wave, it will be a signal for opening short positions. Alternatively, a breakout of the resistance located at 1,353 level will allow us to buy the US dollar. Recommendation: SELL 1,3335 SL 1,339 TP1 1,32 TP2 1,308, BUY 1,353 SL 1,3475 TP1 1,37 TP2 1,3835. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11788

EUR/USD: bulls are going to recoup their losses 12/21/2016 On the EUR/USD daily chart, the bears failed to test the support at 1.0387 (113% Fibonacci level formed from XA wave of the "Crab" pattern). If it is tested, the prices move lower towards 1.023, 1.0115 and 0.985 levels. In contrast, if "bears" fail to consolidate below this important level, it will be a signal for a correction. On the EUR/USD hourly chart, there is a formation of the expanding wedge pattern. If quotes go beyond the descending trading channel and break the resistance at 1.0475, the rally will continue towards 1.0550 and 1.0610. Recommendation:BUY 1,0475 SL 1,042 TP1 1,055 TP2 1,061. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11787

NZD/USD & NZ GDP Q3 2017: a bottom before the new year eve? 12/21/2016 Today at 21:45 GMT will be released the New Zealand GDP for the third quarter and current consensus call for an unchanged number of 0.9%, while by another hand, it can see a very slightly increase to 3.7% from 3.6% in a yearly-basis. Latest data showed a number that was close to meet the expectations, as the NZ’s economy grew 0.9% and overall figures are a clear proof that the RBNZ won’t cut interest rates soon and we’ll see if data continues to be positive at the end of the year. Our current outlook for NZD/USD at the daily chart is showing a very weak structure which favors to more downside across the board, as the pair is well consolidated below the 200 SMA. Currently, ti’s facing off a strong support around 0.6915, where a breakout lower should expose the 0.6837 level, adding more strength to the overall bias. In the positive scenario, a rebound at the current stage could take the pair to visit the resistance zone of 0.7021 in coming weeks. More" https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11786

NZD/USD broke pivotal support level 0.6990 12/20/206 NZD/USD broke pivotal support level 0.6990 Next sell target - 0.6850 NZD/USD continues to fall inside the minor impulse wave 3, which earlier broke through the pivotal support level 0.6990, which has been steadily reversing this currency pair from June, as can be seen below. The breakout of the support level 0.6990 coincided with the breakout of the 61.8% Fibonacci correction level of the previous sharp upward impulse from May. NZD/USD is expected to fall in the accelerated impulse wave 3 (which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the start of November) in the direction of the next sell target at the support level 0.6850. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11785

AUD/USD reached sell targets 0.7300 and 0.7260 12/20/2016 AUD/USD reached sell targets 0.7300 and 0.7260 Next sell target – 0.7150 AUD/USD continues to fall after the earlier breakout of the support zone lying between support levels 0.7300 and 0.7260 – both of which were set as the sell targets in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of this support zone accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the start of November. AUD/USD is expected to continue to fall in the direction of the next sell target at the key support level 0.7150 (which stopped the previous intermediate impulse wave (1) in May, as can be seen below). More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11784

USD/JPY: bearish "Harami" 12/20/2016 We’ve got a bullish “Harami”, which has been confirmed, so the price is likely going to test the nearest resistance once again. If we see any bearish patter on the upper “Window”, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bearish correction. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a possible “Three Methods”, so the last high could be tested again. There’s a “Harami”, which led to the current upward movement. However, we’ve got a “Tweezers” at the local high, which has been confirmed. So, the market is likely going to test the 34 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for another bullish movement. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11783

EUR/USD: "Tweezers" points to local correction 12/20/2016 We’ve got a “Tower” and a “Tweezers”, which both have been confirmed enough, so the market is likely continue falling down in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, there isn’t any reversal pattern so far. In this case, we’re likely going to have a new low soon. There’s a “Three Methods” pattern, but also we’ve got a “Tweezers” at the local low. Therefore, there’s an opportunity to have an upward correction. If any bearish pattern arrives afterwards, the price is likely going to decline. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11782

EUR/USD: bears going to deliver wave iii of (iii) 12/20/2016 The price has been declining since wave 2 ended like a flat pattern. Therefore, wave [iii] of 3 is likely going to be continued in the short term. The main intraday target is -1/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for an upward correction. As we can see on the M30 chart, we’ve got a double zigzag in wave (ii). So, there’s an opportunity to have an extension in wave iii. If the price finds a lodgement under 0/8 MM Level, bears will be free to push the market even lower. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11781

Key option levels for Tuesday, December 20th 12/20/2016 EUR/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Neutral Changes in the open interest - 4 531 252 ? - 3 298 917 ? Closest resistance levels 1.0462; 1.0511; 1.0532; 1.0589 Closest support levels 1.0402; 1.0318(37?); 1.0274 (critical); 1.0221 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0402, with target points at 1.0337/18 and 1.0274 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0462 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0511 and 1.0532 GBP/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 111 ? + 119 ? Closest resistance levels 1.2474; 1.2503; 1.2523; 1.2546 Closest support levels 1.2374; 1.2355; 1.2332; 1.2305 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2374, with target points at 1.2355 and 1.2332 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2474 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2503 and 1.2523 USD/CAD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bullish Changes in the open interest + 117 ? + 240 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3419; 1.3464; 1.3508; 1.3567 Closest support levels 1.3383; 1.3348; 1.3316; 1.3270 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3419, with the target points at 1.3464 and 1.3508 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3383 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3348 and 1.3316 More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11778

GBP/USD: "Triple Top" led to decline 12/20/2016 The price is consolidating between a resistance at 1.2498 and a support at 1.2309. Considering the previously formed “Wedge” pattern, the market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.2358 – 1.2309 in the short term. Meanwhile, if a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an option to have a bullish correction. We’ve got a “Triple Top”, which has been confirmed. Also, there’s a “Pennant” pattern as well. So, the pair is likely going to test the nearest support at 1.2309. If bears be stopped here, then bulls will have an opportunity to push the price in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.2384. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11777

EUR/USD: bearish "Flag" pushing market lower 2/20/2016 The price is consolidating under a resistance at 1.0461. Also, there’s a “Flag” pattern, so the market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.0340 – 1.0300. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish rally in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.0419 – 1.0461. The last “Flag” pattern has been broken. Therefore, the price is likely going to continue falling down during the day. In this case, we should keep an eye on the closest support at 1.0340 – 1.0300 as a possible intraday target. However, if we see a pullback from these levels, bulls will probably try to deliver an upward correction. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11776

Morning brief for December 20 12/20/2016 USD/JPY almost hit 117.60 as the BOJ left its loosening policy unchanged. The bank maintained its short-term interest rate target at -0.1%, its 10-year JGB target at around 0% and committed itself to continue buying JGBs at the annual pace of 80tln yen. The Fed's Chairwoman Janet Yellen delivered a speech yesterday at the University of Baltimore. She painted a rather bright future for the US job market, pointing out at a rather steady job creation, a low payoff rate and increased number of job openings. EUR/USD slumped to 1.0390 as market were struck by the crash in Berlin on Monday. A truck rammed into a Christmas market killing 12 people and injuring many others. After the overnight shock, the euro managed to recover to 1.0400 earlier this morning. The euro will probably continue its downward movement vs. USD as European markets don’t stop fretting about Italy’s banking system. Yesterday we got Germany’s December Ifo Survey for December that was rather solid. It seems that Eurozone’s largest economy is picking up economic momentum, while other less developed European countries still struggle to fight the recession. AUD/USD slumped to 0.7240 overnight due to a new rising tide of interest in the US dollar and falling commodity prices (the copper and other base metals). Earlier this morning we got the RBA’s Minutes from December board’s meeting, but they failed to become a market trigger. NZD/USD continues its downward movement on the strengthening of the US dollar. Later today we will receive GDT price index and trade balance data from New Zealand that may offer support to Kiwi. USD/CAD rose above 1.3405 on the session due to the upbringing news flows from the US and falling oil prices. Brent crude oil futures slipped 0.2% to $54.80. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11774

USD/JPY: yen fulfilled targets 12/20/2016 On the USD/JPY daily chart, prices reached 118.4-118.9 convergence zone (78.6% Fibonacci retracement level formed from the last downward wave + 161.8% target in the "Crab" pattern). This allowed traders to close long positions formed from 114.75 and 115.8 levels. The next support levels are located near the 116.1 and 114.7 marks. On the USD/JPY hourly chart, quotes are moving within the upward trading channel which means that they maintain their control over the market. There can be a consolidation in the range of 116.1-118.35 levels. A successful test of its upper boundary can attract buyers. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11773

EUR/GBP: rivals are preparing for Christmas 12/20/2016 On the EUR/GBP daily chart, there is a consolidation in a range of 0.8345-0.8445. A breakout of its lower boundary can lead to the restoration of the downtrend towards the 161.8% target in the "Crab" pattern (0.763). In contrast, a successful test of the resistance will create prerequisites for the development of the correction towards 0.873. On the EUR/GBP hourly chart, a pullback of prices towards 0.8445 allowed us to open short positions. If the "bears" manage to test the nearest diagonal support and activate the "Shark" pattern, the pair may fall towards the support at 0.8345. Recommendations: keep holding shorts formed from the 0,856 and 0,8445 levels. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11772

USD/JPY ahead of BoJ meeting (December): A corrective move could start soon? 12/20/2016 Today will be released the BoJ’s interest rate decision and no major surprises are expected from the central bank, as they keep untouched the monetary policy during November’s meeting. Currently, investors will be looking into what will be said during the press conference by officials, as the BoJ had been postponing their inflation target’s deadline and Governor’s Kuroda could bring some hints about which would be tools and how long it will take to battle the deflation in Japan. Our technical analysis for USD/JPY at daily chart remains strongly bullish, but we got a strong sellers’ reaction around 118.19. Ahead of the meeting, the pair could be preparing the ground to receive the news with a bearish correction, favoring the bullish momentum in the Japanese currency. If that happens, we can expect a decline to test the support area of 115.54. If the BoJ’s rhetoric is dovish, then the pair will look to reach the 120.00 handle. https://fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11771/USDJPYDaily(27).png/IMG] More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11771