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Morning brief for December 27 12/27/2017 Financial markets are still sleeping with Christmas carols. Trading should be thin this week as the market participants are closing out 2016 volatile year. EUR/USD slid down to 1.0430 in the early hours of the Asian session as 10-year US Treasury yields extended their gains having partially recovered their yesterday’s losses. Italy is struggling with its banking crisis. ECB told Monte dei Paischi that it needs 8.8 bln euros to plug its capital shortfall. Earlier Italy’s government received the Parliament’s support for the bank’s bailout when private investors had refused to take its losses. USD/JPY popped up earlier this morning as we got a miss in Japan’s core consumer prices and household spending. The data indicated that Japan’s economy lacks of a significant boost to strike the BoJ’s egregious 2% inflation rate target. Core consumer prices fell at their fastest pace in nearly 4 years showing that fighting deflation is not as easy-peasy as Shinzo Abe thought it would be in 2012. The further movement of the pair should be subdued as the end of 2016 is just several days away. The upper border of Ichimoku cloud on the H4 timeframe is holding the yen’s pace. The pair may rise later today if the US releases will be above market’s expectations. GBP/USD made a baby step lower and then glued to the 1.2270 level. The US CB consumer confidence might send the prices a bit lower towards the nearest support at 1.2490. Aussie and Kiwi retraced on the strengthening of the US dollar. USD/CAD dropped to 1.3470 overnight on the surging oil prices. Brent oil futures jumped to $55.86 on Tuesday as we approach to the actual OPEC and non-OPEC producers’ output cuts. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11855

Brent: the Gartley pattern will show the 12/27/2016 On the daily chart of the Brent crude oil futures, quotes move within the upward trading channel.The bulls remain control over the pair. To change the trend an expanding wedge pattern should be realized - to send prices lower towards $42.7. At the present moment, however, this scenario cannot be realized. So, we would recommend you to buy on the rollbacks or on the breakouts of the resistances. On the hourly chart of Brent oil futures, there is a "Gartley" pattern. A rebound from its 78.6% target will increase the risks of the continuation of the consolidation in the $53,2-57,2 range. A breakout will create prerequisites for the continuation of the rally towards $60.5 per barrel. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11854

USD/JPY: bulls play cat-and-mouse 12/27/2016 On the USD/JPY daily chart, there is a consolidation in the range of 116,6-118,4 - within the medium-term uptrend. An update of the December peak will create prerequisites for the continuation of the rally towards 120.85. The nearest support levels are located near the 116.1 and 114.7 levels. On the USD/JPY hourly chart, there is a formation of the "Splash and shelf" on the base of 1-2-3. A successful test of the upper boundary can lead to the continuation of the rally. Recommendations: BUY 118,35 SL 117,8 TP 120,85, BUY 116,1 SL 115,55 TP 117,8. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11853

AUD/CAD: nobody wanted to surrender 12/27/2016 On the AUD/CAD daily chart, there is a desperate battle for the important level located at 0.973 (61.8% Fibonacci level from the last upward wave). If "bears" win, the update of the December minimum can send quotes lower towards 0.941. There is 88.6% target in the "Shark" pattern. A breakout of the upper boundary of the 0,9675-0,976 consolidation range will allow the "bulls" to develop correction towards 0.986. On the AUD/CAD hourly chart, there is a formation of the expanding wedge reversal pattern. A return of quotes towards the resistance at 0.976 will create the prerequisites for a correction. Recommendations: BUY 0,976 SL 0,9705 TP 0,986, SELL 0,9685 SL 0,974 TP 0,941. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11852

EUR/JPY: bulls are launching the attack 12/27/2016 On the EUR/JPY daily chart, quotes are moving within the upward trading channel. The "bulls" remain their control over the pair heading into the convergence zone. There is 113% target in the "Butterfly" pattern. A successful test of the resistance at 123.4 can lead to the continuation of the rally towards 125,3-125,8 (50% Fibo level from the last downward wave - 127.2% target in the "Butterfly" pattern). Recommendation: BUY 123,16 SL 122,61 TP1 124,8 TP2 125,8. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11851

EUR/USD ahead of CB Consumer Confidence (December): nothing major is expected 12/27/2016 After Christmas holidays, we’ll have today at 15:00 GMT the CB Consumer Confidence’s data for December, which is expected to see an increase to 108.5 from 107.1 (November). If we notice a good number that could tell us further consumer spending’s increase is coming, we can see some volatile moves in the US Dollar-related pairs, despite low volumes of trading ahead of New Year’s eve, while a weak data should fuel to the bears in USD across the board. Our technical analysis for EUR/USD at H1 chart is still showing a very sideways’ picture around 200 SMA and the support zone of 1.0431 is helping the bulls to remain alive in the battle, before the end of the year. If the pair plunges below that area, the next key interest area to the downside should be the 1.0397 and that scenario will happen if the number comes above the expectations. However, if EUR/USD breaks above the 1.0476 zone, then it can test the 1.0517 level. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11850

AUD/NZD reversed from resistance zone 12/26/2016 AUD/NZD reversed from resistance zone Next sell target - 1.0375 AUD/NZD continues to fall after the recent downward reversal from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 1.0500 and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse 1 from the middle of October. The downward reversal from this resistance zone accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the middle of October. AUD/NZD is expected to fall further in the direction of the next sell target at the next support level 1.0375, which reversed the previous sharp minor impulse wave 1 in November, as can be seen below. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11849

CAD/CHF falling inside minor ©-wave 12/26/2016 CAD/CHF falling inside minor ©-wave Next sell target - 0.7500 CAD/CHF has been falling sharply in the last few trading sessions inside the ©-wave of the minor ABC correction 2, which started earlier from the resistance zone surrounding the long-term resistance level 0.7740 (which also recently reversed the previous intermediate (A)-wave in April, as can be seen below). The resistance zone near the resistance level 0.7740 was further strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band. CAD/CHF is expected to fall further in the direction of the next sell target at the support level 0.7500 (intersecting with the 38.2% Fibonacci correction level of the previous sharp upward impulse wave 1 from the start of November). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11848

USD/JPY: correction on the way 12/26/2016 The last “Engulfing” pattern is still on the table, so the market is likely going to test the 34 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for another bullish rally. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’re a “High Wave” and a “Harami” at the local high, which both led to the current decline. However, if we see any bullish pattern, there’ll be an opportunity to have a new high. The price has reached the middle of the last huge white candle. However, there isn’t any reversal pattern so far. Therefore, the pair is likely going to continue falling down until any bullish pattern arrives. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11847

EUR/USD: bears relaxing in a flat 12/26/2016 We’ve got a “Shooting Star”, but a confirmation of this pattern is a quite weak. So, the nearest “Three Methods” is likely going to act as a support. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a “High Wave”, so bulls will probably try to move on. The price is still consolidating on the one-hour chart. Also, the 89 Moving Average is acting as a resistance, so we’ve got an “Engulfing” pattern. In this case, the pair is likely going to continue moving up and down in a flat range. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11846

EUR/USD: wave [ii] going to end on 2/8 MM Level 12/26/2016 The last pullback from 1/8 MM Level led to an upward correction, so we have wave [ii], which is taking place on the four-hours chart. Previously a bearish impulse in wave has been formed. The main intraday target is 2/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for another decline in wave [iii]. As we can see on the one-hour chart, wave ( is taking form of a double zigzag. Therefore, bulls are likely going to deliver wave © of [ii] in the short term. If we see another pullback from 6/8 MM Level, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bearish impulse. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11845

GBP/USD: support waiting for bears 12/26/2016 The price faced a support at 1.2270, so the price is consolidating. If we have any reversal pattern, the market is likely going to reach a support at 1.2227 – 1.2205. Considering a possible pullback from this area, there’s a chance to have an upward correction afterwards. We’ve got a “V-Bottom”, so the price reached the 34 Moving Average, which led to the current consolidation. In this case, we should keep an eye on the nearest support at 1.2227 – 1.2205 as a possible bearish target. Meanwhile, if we see a pullback from these levels, there’ll be an option to have a correction in the direction of the next resistance at 1.2309 – 1.2385. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11843

EUR/USD: bearish "Thorn" 12/26/2016 We’ve got a “Double Bottom”, which has been confirmed, so the price is consolidating. Considering the main downtrend, the market is likely going to test a support at 1.0419. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bullish price movement towards a resistance at 1.0506. There’s a “Thorn”, so bears are likely going to achieve a support at 1.0419. However, if we have a pullback from this level, bulls will probably try to reach the nearest resistance at 1.0478 – 1.0506. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11841

Morning brief report for December 26 12/26/2016 Markets are still half asleep as their participants celebrate Christmas. EUR/USD is trading near the level of 1.0460. The euro managed to regain some of its losses on Friday mainly due to the weakening of the US dollar. USD slipped some points as investors took profits in the run-up to the Christmas holidays. US 10-year bond yields dipped following the Friday’s release of the US economic indicators (the household income data was not upbeat). The US dollar should not fall lower, as it remains to be well-supported thanks to the anticipation of a faster pace of the benchmark increases under Trump’s presidency. USD/JPY fell to 116.95 on the weakening of the greenback. Today’s trading will be subdued as stock markets, precious/base metals options are shut for the Christmas holiday. European and American banks are closed as well. So, the yen may strengthen further in relation to the US currency snatching at a chance in the period of the US markets’ lull. AUD/USD managed to recover on Monday after falling to 0.7160 following the news stating that Chinese President Xi Jinping was open to the deceleration in the economic growth of China. Aussie remains vulnerable to the price fluctuations in the commodity market and news flows from China. GBP/USD edged down to 1.2265. The pound remains under pressure of uncertainty over the Brexit process. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11840

EUR/GBP: bulls launched a counterattack 12/26/2016 On the EUR/GBP daily chart, the "bears" failed to update the December minimum. "Bulls" launched a counterattack. If they manage to test the resistance at 0.8565, an activation of the "Bat" pattern will increase the risks of the continuation of the rally towards 0.9. The 0.873 and 0.8865 marks can serve as intermediate targets. Restoration of the downtrend is possible if quotes manage to return to 0.832. On the EUR/GBP hourly chart, there is a rather steady uptrend. The further movement of the pair will depend on the test of the resistance at 0.8545. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11839

GBP/USD: pound is led by the patterns 12/26/2016 On the GBP/USD daily chart, after quotes went beyond the descending trading channel the "bears" regained control over the market. The "Crab" pattern with its 113% and 127.2% intermediate targets is relevant at the present moment. We may expect the development of the correction wave from the December low located at the 1,215 level. On the GBP/USD hourly chart, there is a formation of the CD wave of the "Shark" pattern. A breakout of the December low can lead to the downfall of quotes towards 1,215 (88.6%). Also, there might be a correction from the current levels towards 1.2357, 1.2441 and 1.2509. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11838

Key option levels for Monday, December 26th 12/25/2016 * Data about changes in the open interest will be available on Monday after 12:00 CT (Central Time) EUR/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 13 411 ↑ + 43 770 ↑ Closest resistance levels 1.0499; 1.0537; 1.0554; 1.0576 Closest support levels 1.0440; 1.0419; 1.0390; 1.0372 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0440, with target points at 1.0419 and 1.0390 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0499 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0537 and 1.0554 GBP/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bearish Changes in the open interest - 3 ↓ - 4 ↓ Closest resistance levels 1.2336; 1.2366; 1.2387; 1.2413 Closest support levels 1.2278; 1.2254; 1.2236; 1.2212 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2278, with target points at 1.2254 and 1.2236 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2336 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2366 and 1.2387 USD/CAD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bullish Changes in the open interest + 730 ↑ + 45 ↑ Closest resistance levels 1.3543; 1.3563; 1.3600; 1.3654 Closest support levels 1.3501; 1.3477; 1.3439; 1.3385 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3543, with the target points at 1.3563 and 1.3600 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3501 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3477 and 1.3439 More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11837

USD/CAD reached buy target 1.3500 12/23/2016 USD/CAD reached buy target 1.3500 Next buy target - 1.3590 USD/CAD continues to rise after the price earlier broke through the resistance level 1.3500, which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of this resistance level continues the active intermediate impulse wave (3) from the middle of December. With the accelerating daily Momentum - USD/CAD can be expected to rise further in the direction of the next buy target at the pivotal resistance level 1.3590 (which stopped the previous intermediate impulse wave (1) in the middle of November, as can be seen below). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11836

EUR/AUD reached buy target 1.4470 12/23/2016 EUR/AUD reached buy target 1.4470 Next buy target - 1.4700 EUR/AUD continues to rise strongly – following the earlier breakout of the strong resistance level 1.4470 (which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The resistance level 1.4470 is also the former upper boundary of the tight sideways price channel inside which the pair has been trading from the middle of November (as can be seen below). The breakout of the resistance level 1.4470 accelerated the c-wave of the active minor ABC correction (ii) - which started earlier from the lower boundary of the aforementioned sideways price channel. EUR/AUD is expected to rise to the next buy target 1.4700. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11835

EUR/USD: wave [ii] going to be continued 12/23/2016 The price has been rising since a pullback from 1/8 MM Level happens, so there’s an opportunity to have wave [ii] in the short term. If a pullback from 2/8 MM Level be on the table, bears are likely going to deliver wave [iii]. As we can see on the one-hour chart, wave [ii] is taking form of a zigzag. Therefore, wave ( is likely going to be continued. However, there’s a chance to have bullish wave © of [ii] afterwards. In this case, 6/8 MM Level could be tested once again. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11834

GBP/USD: outlook for December 26-30 12/23/2016 GBP/USD dropped to 1.2245 level in the course of past week. The UK data set released on Friday did little to support the pound. The uncertainty over the Brexit process will continue pressuring the pound. The Supreme Court is expected to make a ruling in the middle of January. There may be other legal challenges that could cause future delays of the EU-UK separation. Next week shouldn’t bring lots of moves to the chart. The pair needs to recover above 1.2330 to reverse this bearish tone and be able to correct higher, towards the 1.2450/60 area.The pound should continue its downward movement remaining the momentum of the past week. On the downside, there are several supports located at 1.2200, 1.2178 and 1.2073 levels. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11833

USD/JPY: bears going to test the nearest support 12/23/2016 There’s an “Engulfing”, which has been confirmed enough, so the market is likely going to get a support on the 21 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward movement towards the upper “Window”. As we can see on the Daily chart, there isn’t any reversal pattern so far. In this case, bulls are likely going to move on. The price is still consolidating on the one-hour chart. At the same time, there’re bearish patterns such a “Tweezers”, a “High Wave” and a “Harami”, which all have been confirmed. So, the current correction is likely going to test the nearest support area. However, if we see a pullback from this zone, there’ll be a chance to have another bullish rally. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11832

EUR/USD: consolidation going to move on 12/23/2016 There’s a “Shooting Star”, but this pattern hasn’t been confirmed yet. So, the price is likely going to decline in the short term. However, bulls will probably try to test the last high afterwards. As we can see on the Daily chart, a “High Wave” has been formed, so there’s an upward correction on the way. Considering that there isn’t any bearish pattern so far, the market is likely going to rise in the coming days. We’ve got a “Shooting Star” and an “Engulfing” at the last highs. At the same time, both patterns don’t have enough confirmation. Also, the 89 Moving Average acted as a resistance. So, there’s an option to have a new low, but bulls are likely going to test the nearest resistance soon. More; https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11831

USD/JPY outlook for December 26 - 30 12/23/2016 USD/JPY has settled into a narrow range of 116.50 – 118.20 in the course of the past week. The Bank of Japan left its loosening monetary policy unchanged on Tuesday. The Fed raised its benchmark at its December meeting and projected a triple hike in 2017. So, the interest rate differentials between the US and Japan widened significantly pushing the US dollar higher. Next week traders will focus on Japan’s annual household spending and core inflation data both coming on Tuesday. The US statistical agencies will publish CB consumer confidence index, unemployment claims, monthly pending home sales and Chicago PMI. It is most likely that USD/JPY will continue to surge towards the resistances located at 118.70, 120.00 levels given the prospect for the higher US rates in 2017 and far-reaching yield curve targeting strategy of the BoJ. Alternative scenario suggests a continuation of the current corrective movement or small retracement of the quotes towards the nearest supports located at 116.00, 115.55 (61.8% Fibo retracement level formed from the May 2015 peak) and 114.75 (100 MA on the weekly timeframe). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11830

Outlook for commodity currencies 12/23/2016 After brief recovery followed by Australia’s mid-year budget update, the AUD/USD resumed with its bearish trend and remained under selling pressure until Friday. Falling iron ore prices and subdued growth of Chinese economy are the key factors that weigh on the pair. The Reserve Bank of Australia does little to support the nation’s currency being in no haste to raise its benchmark. Next week shouldn’t bring volatility to the chart. Focus your attention on the US CB consumer confidence index, pending home sales and unemployment claims The technical outlook for AUD/USD is tilted to the downside. The nearest supports on the Aussie’s way lie at 0.72000 and 0.7140 levels. If commodity prices manage to retrieve their losses we may look for rebounds from the current levels to 0.7250, 0.7325 marks. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11829