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EUR/USD: "Tweezers" led to decline 12/28/2016 There’s a resistance by the 34 Moving Average, so we’ve got an “Engulfing” on this line, but this pattern hasn’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the nearest support. If we have a pullback from this level, bulls will probably try to deliver another upward movement. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’re a “Shooting Star” and a “Doji” on the last local high, so there’s an opportunity to have a bearish correction. We’ve got a “Tweezers” and a “Harami”, which both have been confirmed enough. In this case, the price is likely going to falling down towards the nearest support level during the day. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11883

EUR/USD: "flat" in wave ( 12/28/2016 The price is still developing wave [ii], which is likely going to be continued in the short term. So, we should keep an eye on 2/8 MM Level as a possible intraday target. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bearish impulse in wave [iii]. As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a possible flat pattern in wave (, so bears are likely going to deliver an impulse in wave c of (. At the same time, bulls will probably try to test 6/8 MM Level afterwards. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11882

Annual forecasts for emerging market currencies 12/28/2016 As we approach a rather volatile year for the G10 currencies, you might consider switching to its emerging markets homologues as some of the latter ones are expected to do better in 2017 than they used to in turbulent 2016. And the “some” word will be the key one here because there are also several “non-some” emerging market currencies that are expected to be a disappointment next year. Let us bring you up to date on the most profitable and the most disappointing emerging market currencies of 2017. Chinese yuan China’s yuan fits better into the group of underperforming currencies. Until recently, China’s currency was a rather good Forex investment because of the tremendous growth of the Chinese economy. In the last decade, the People's Republic of China was developing at rapid-fire pace. As you know the value of a currency is based on the economic performance of the country of its issuance. China’s trade volumes and perspectives for the further economic development are put at risk. So, CNY is probably entering in a rather hefty period of time. The bears will definitely include it in their 2017 task list. Prospects for Mexican peso and Turkish lira MXN was an emerging currency that used to perform quite well until the US presidential election. With the Donald Trump’s intention to fall apart NAFTA, the MXN is poised for a precipitous downfall in the upcoming year. The outlook for the TRY is not bright as well. The nation’s economy may slow to a standstill in the upcoming year. The numerous troubled political circumstances dashed nation’s hopes for the Turkish economic miracle. Your safe havens So, with China, Turkey and Mexico being under pressure next year, we are left with just a few emerging market currencies to watch. We would recommend you to focus on the IDR – Indonesia Rupiah. The country’s young population is actively earning and willing to earn more. Indonesia economy has a high potential for the economic growth. So, it would be a good option for investment in 2017. The same could be said about Nigeria as its government is eager to develop infrastructure in the country and increase the availability of jobs. So, we see an uptick going forward in the exchange rate of Nigerian naira. Another good investment is the Philippine Peso (PHP), simply because the Philippine economy is doing well and has all chances for the growth. This is due to the country’s new president – Duterte (Philippine's Trump) who is determined to lift Philippine economy to a higher level. Neutrality The Bank of Thailand maintained its policy rate unchanged at 1.5% in November willing to support the nation’s economy in the period of greater economic uncertainties. The THB has weakened significantly because of the recent portfolio outflows. External factors will continue to dominate the local FX market. A smooth transition of powers to Thailand’s Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn and steady political conditions will offer a modest support to the THB in its fight against the meaty greenback. More: [url=https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11881]https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11881[/img]

Key option levels for Wednesday, December 28th EUR/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Neutral Changes in the open interest + 9 665 ? + 24 104 ? Closest resistance levels 1.0509; 1.0544; 1.0561; 1.0582/95 Closest support levels 1.0451; 1.0429; 1.0400; 1.0382 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0451, with target points at 1.0429 and 1.0400 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0509 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0544 and 1.0561 GBP/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 199 ? + 263 ? Closest resistance levels 1.2344; 1.2361; 1.2383; 1.2409 Closest support levels 1.2283; 1.2259; 1.2241; 1.2217 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2283, with target points at 1.2259 and 1.2241 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2344 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2361 and 1.2383 USD/CAD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bullish Changes in the open interest + 97 ? - 34 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3583; 1.3611; 1.3631; 1.3654 Closest support levels 1.3530; 1.3504; 1.3461; 1.3398 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3583, with the target points at 1.3611 and 1.3631 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3530 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3504 and 1.3461 More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11880

GBP/USD: "Pennant" highlights to another decline 12/28/2016 There’s a flat, which is taking place between a support at 1.2227 and a resistance at 1.2309. Also, we’ve got a “Pennant”, so the market is likely going to reach a support at 1.2227 – 1.2205. Considering a possible pullback from this area, there’s a chance to have an upward movement in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.2309 – 1.2358. We’ve got a “Wedge” pattern, so the price is likely going to test the 55 Moving Average. If bulls be stopped on this line, bears are likely going to test a support at 1.2227 – 1.2205 in the short term. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11878

EUR/USD: bearish "Wedge" 12/28/2016 The price is still consolidating on the four-hours chart. Also, there’s a “Wedge” pattern, so the market is likely going to reach a support at 1.0373 – 1.0340. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bullish movement towards a resistance at 1.0419 – 1.0461. We’ve got a pullback from the lower side of the last “Wedge” pattern. Therefore, the pair is likely going to achieve a resistance at 1.0498 – 1.0506 in the short term. At the same time, bears will probably try to test a support between the levels 1.0431 – 1.0419. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11877

USD/JPY: bulls gone to attack 12/28/2016 Technical levels: support – 117.40; resistance – 118.70, 119.20. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 117.40; SL — 117.20; TP1 — 118.70; TP2 — 119.20. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span A and B; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and the narrow channel of Tenkan and Kijun; the prices are on the Cloud’s support. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11876

EUR/USD: still in correction mood 12/28/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.0460, 1.0425; resistance – 1.0515. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 1.0460; SL — 1.0480; TP1 — 1.0340; TP2 – 1.0310. Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but the rising Senkou Span A; an irregular dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; strong resistance on 1.0460. [iG]https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/11875/01-eurusdh4(72).png[/MG] More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11875

Morning brief for December 28 12/28/2016 It seems that somebody delivered a portion of 100% arabica to financial and commodity markets as they manage to wake up from the deep sleep. There were some small movements across the trading desk. EUR/USD climbed higher to 1.0468 on the Asian session. The US dollar may drag pair a little bit lower if market’s expectation over the upbeat US pending home sales release are justified. USD/JPY was lifted to 117.66 after we got upbeat US consumer confidence data. The bulls will remain control over the market until we get some ground-shaking news from the US (if you see in headlines something like: “Trump’s administration refuses to introduce fiscal stimulus; the Fed backpedals and discards its triple hikes promise”). At the present moment, we can sleep with a quiet mind and buy the greenback on its reoccurring dips. Aussie realized that it’s a high time to hit the deck and jumped to 0.7210 vs. USD on the bullish commodity market. Iron ore prices moved 3.3% higher hitting $81.60 mark. Shanghai zinc and nickel prices moved in the same direction. If this momentum is maintained Aussie has all chances for the continuation of its rally. NZD/USD breached the support at 0.6925 level due to the rising commodity prices. Oil futures are rather firm; they managed to strengthen and move higher to $57.15 as trading resumed after the Christmas holiday. Oil should move higher in to the year-end on the expectations of scantier supply once the first output cuts are enacted. Loonie is insensitive to the oil’s gains. USD/CAD continues its northward rally. Although there were some dips. It means that CAD fights to the death with beefy US dollar. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11874

Gold prices are still consolidating 12/28/2016 On the daily chart of gold, the "bulls" are trying to launch the attack. However, until quotes are below the resistance at $1,172 (61.8% Fibonacci level formed from the last upward wave); the "bears" remain their control over the pair. Target 161.8% in the "Butterfly" pattern is still relevant. On the hourly chart of gold, there is a consolidation in the range of $1,127-1,144. Breakout of the upper boundary will increase the risk of the correction in the direction of $1,165. In contrast, a successful test of the support will create the preconditions for the continuation of the downtrend towards $1,090. Recommendations: SELL $1165 SL $1172 TP $1127, SELL $1127 SL $1134 TP $1090. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11873

EUR /USD: the bears got in the bears' trap 12/28/2016 On the EUR/USD daily chart, there is a consolidation within the range of 1,039-1,05. The nearest significant resistance level is located near the 1,053 mark. An update of the December minimum may lead to the continuation of the downtrend towards 1.0115 (Target 200% pattern AB = CD) and 0.985 (Target 161.8% in the "Crab" pattern). On the EUR/USD hourly chart, there is a formation of the expanding wedge pattern. A successful test of the resistance near the 1.05 mark can lead to the development of the correction towards 1.055 and 1.0615. In contrast, the return of quotes to the 1.0365 level will create the prerequisites for the restoration of the downtrend. Recommendations: SELL 1,0365 SL 1,042 TP 1,0115, SELL 1,055 SL 1,0615 TP 1,0365. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11872

USD/CHF: there is a continuation of the uptrend 12/28/2016 On the USD/CHF daily chart, there is a consolidation of the uptrend. A breakout of the resistance at 1.0320 can lead to the continuation of the rally. "Crab" and AB = CD patterns are still valid; there are several targets in the upward trend located at 1.0370, 1.0460, 1.0490 and 1.0780 marks. Alternatively, if quotes go below the support located at 1.022 it may lead to the development of the correction towards 1.0090. On the USD/CHF hourly chart, the further movements will depend on whether pair manages to go beyond the triangle or not. The nearest support is located around 1.0120 and 1.0000. Recommendation: BUY 1,032 SL 1,0265 TP1 1,046 TP2 1,049. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11871

USD/CAD: bulls are going launch the attack once again 12/28/2016 On the USD/CAD daily chart, quotes come closer to an important level of 1.3570. "Bulls" failed to test it at the first attempt in November. If they succeed this time, then we can talk about the restoration of the uptrend. There are some targets locates at 1.3837 (61.8% Fibonacci level of the last downward wave) and 1.3930 (target 161.8% in the pattern AB = CD). On the USD/CAD hourly chart, bulls regained control over the pair. The quotes moved above the 88.6% Fibonacci level of the last upward wave. The level of 1,353 serves as a key support. Recommendation: hold longs formed from 1,353. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11870

USD/JPY & Pending Home Sales for November: What about the triangle consolidation? 12/28/2016 Today at 15:00 GMT will be released the US Pending Home Sales for November and we can expect an increase to 0.6% from 0.1% according to the latest analysts’ surveys. The data had been showing a mixed number during the last five months, so it’s probable to see a little reaction in the markets, especially in the US Dollar-related pairs. A weaker-than-expected data should help to fuel the bearish bias in the greenback across the board. Our technical analysis for USD/JPY at H1 chart is showing a bullish consolidation within a triangle pattern. However, current price action is below the 200 SMA and it can help to produce bearish technical moves in order to test the 117.15 level. If the pair manages to break the triangle consolidation, it can go to test the 118.00 handle, while a break of the 117.15 level should help the pair to plummet towards the 116.56 zone. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11869

USD/CHF reversed from support zone 12/27/2016 USD/CHF reversed from support zone Next buy target - 1.0340 USD/CHF continues to rise inside the b-wave of the minor ABC correction (ii) – which started earlier from the resistance level 1.0340. The active b-wave started when the pair reversed up with the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Hammer from the support zone lying between the strong resistance level 1.0210 (previous monthly high from November) and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse (i). USD/CHF is expected to rise further in the direction of the next buy target at the resistance level 1.0340 (which stopped the aforementioned impulse wave (i), as can be seen below). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11868

EUR/CHF reached buy target 1.0750 12/27/2016 EUR/CHF reached buy target 1.0750 Next buy target - 1.0800 EUR/CHF continues to rise after the recent breakout of the resistance level 1.0750, which was set as the buy target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of the resistance level 1.0750 is expected to accelerate the active minor corrective wave (ii) – which started recently from the key support area located between the support levels 1.0680 and 1.0700. EUR/CHF is expected to rise further in the direction of the next buy target at the next resistance level 1.0800, intersecting with the 38.2% Fibonacci correction level of the previous downward impulse from the start of September. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11867

EUR/USD: wave [ii] on the way 12/27/2016 There’s wave [ii], which is taking place on the four-hours chart. The main intraday target is 2/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for wave [iii]. In this case, we should keep an eye on -1/8 MM Level as a possible bearish goal. We’ve got a bullish impulse in wave (a) and a double three pattern, which could be wave (. Previously, the price tested 5/8 MM Level twice. Therefore, there’s an opportunity to have wave © of [ii] in the short term. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11866

USD/JPY: "Doji" pushing price higher 12/27/2016 There’s a “Tweezers”, which has been confirmed enough. So, the market is likely going to continue moving up towards the nearest resistance. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a possible “Engulfing” pattern. If it confirms, bulls will probably try to test the last high. We’ve got a pullback from the nearest support level, so the price was rising yesterday. Also, there’s a “Doji” at the local low, so the pair is likely going to continue rising. In this case, we could have a new high during the day. More: [url=https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11864]https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11864[/img]

EUR/USD: bearish "Engulfing" 12/27/2016 The price has been consolidating since the last “Shooting Star” formed. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the nearest support in the short term. If we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish movement. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s a pattern similar to a “Three Methods”. If it confirms, bulls are likely going to continue pushing the pair higher. There’s a flat, which is taking place on the once-hour chart. Also, the 89 Moving Average is acting as a resistance. We’ve got an “Engulfing” at the last high, so bears are likely going to test the closest support right after the local correction ends. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11863

Banks' projections for 2017 12/27/2016 Morgan Stanley Buy USD/JPY – low yields on the JGB leads to the capital outflows from japan and sparks the growth of inflation expectations. Sell EUR/GBP – the news flows from the UK is positive; GBP is underappreciated. Sell AUD/CAD – the US economic growth will outstrip the growth of China (the US is a key trading partner of Canada; Australian dollar is vulnerable to changes of economic prospects for China) Buy CHF/JPY – low yields on JGB; CHF is a very good hedge against Eurozone political risks. NAB USD should strengthen in 2017 and send Aussie towards 0.7000 mark. The bank is bearish on AUD. If commodity prices shoot from its present levels and the Fed recourse to multiple hikes, AUD can slide down even lower – towards 0.6500. NZD/USD will moderate next year. Kiwi will be able to hold its grounds, or even rise in cross-rate terms. New Zealand domestic factors are rather upbringing. The NAB’s strategists believe that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may introduce some tightening measures in the second half of 2017. There is a great risk of AUD/NZD reaching a parity in 2018 as the NAB is more positive on New Zealand’s economic prospects than on the Australian ones. Société Générale Analysts recommend to hold long positions on the US dollar until the first half of the next year; sell EUR/USD; hold short positions on the yen, especially against the US dollar. Buy NOT (Norwegian Krone) and SEK (Swedish krone) against Kiwi and the yen. Sell NZD/USD. NZD will be the weakest currency in G10. BNP Paribas The bank’s analysts are bearish on the yen. According to them, it will be the weakest currency in 2017 among its 10 major peers. The Bank of Japan’s yield curve targeting strategy poses the greatest risk to the JPY. While in most of G10 economies banks recourse to tightening measure on the back of steepening yield curves, the BoJ sticks firmly to its guns and commits itself to keep the 10 year JGB yield anchored around zero. At some level of yen weakness, the BoJ could rise its target for long-end yields which be an important factor that could designate the limit of JPY downfall. GBP will outperform most of G10 currencies in 2017, holding steady against a much stronger USD. The current levels of the GBP have already priced in a hard Brexit scenario. The pound is trading very low against its long-term fair value. Next year, the UK economy will have to face with numerous challenges ahead of the actual Brexit. Goldman Sachs Highlighting the worsening of the economic environment and uncertainty over the upcoming parliamentary/presidential elections in the different countries of the Eurozone, the Goldman Sachs strategists recommend to buy dollar against the pound and the euro (sell GBP/USD and EUR/USD). Also, they project the weakening of the yuan. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11862

GBP/USD: bears going to deliver a new low 12/27/2016 The price is consolidating above a support at 1.2227, so bears are likely going to test this level in the short term. If we have a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to see an upward correction in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.2309 – 1.2358. There’s a “Pennant”, so the price is testing the lower side of this pattern. Nevertheless, the pair is likely going to achieve a support at 1.2227 – 1.2205 shortly. If bears be stopped here, bulls will probably try to test a resistance at 1.2270 – 1.2309. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11861

EUR/USD: correction going to move on 12/27/2016 The price is still consolidating, so the market is likely going to get a support at 1.0419 – 1.0373. If we see a pullback from this area, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward movement in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.0461 – 1.0506. We’ve got a “Thorn” pattern, so bears are likely going to reach a support at 1.0419 – 1.0400. Considering a possible pullback from these levels, bulls will probably try to test the closest resistance at 1.0478 – 1.0506. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11860

USD/JPY: on the Cloud’s support 12/27/2016 Technical levels: support – 117.15; resistance – 117.60, 118.70. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 117.20; SL — 117.00; TP1 — 118.70; TP2 — 119.20. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span B; a correctional dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are on the Cloud’s support. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11859

GBP/USD: consolidation in Tenkan-Kijun’s channel 12/27/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.2260, 1.2230; resistance – 1.2310. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 1.2310; SL — 1.2330; TP1 — 1.2260; TP2 — 1.2230. Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud, horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are in the channel of Tenkan-Kijun and on support of Tenkan-sen. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11858

EUR/USD: Euro entered into the Cloud 12/27/2016 Technical levels: support – 1.0380, 1.0425; resistance – 1.0460, 1.0515. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 1.0420; SL — 1.0440; TP1 — 1.0340; TP2 – 1.0310. Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but the lines of the Ichimoku Indicator are horizontal; a weak golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; strong resistance on 1.0460. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11857