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EUR/USD: bears going to deliver wave iii of (iii) 1/30/2017 4/8 MM Level acted as resistance several times, so wave 2 has been ended in a form of a zigzag. Therefore, bears are likely going to deliver a bearish impulse in wave . The main intraday target is 2/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for an upward correction. We’ve got a zigzag in wave (i), so the market delivered an impulse in wave i, which was stopped by 4/8 MM Level. So, it’s time for a local correction. Meanwhile, there’s an opportunity to have wave iii of (iii) afterwards. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12256

USD/CHF reversed from support zone 1/30/2017 USD/CHF reversed from support zone Next buy target - 1.0080 USD/CHF recently reversed up from the support zone lying between the pivotal support level 1.0000 (former top of impulse 1 from October, which was set as the sell target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction level of the previous upward impulse from November. The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the earlier C-wave of the intermediate ABC correction (4) from December. USD/CHF is likely to rise further toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.0080 (earlier support level, which stopped the previous minor impulse wave (i)). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12255

EUR/CHF broke strong support area 1/30/2017 EUR/CHF broke strong support area Next sell targets – 1.0650 and 1.0620 EUR/CHF continues to fall strongly – following the earlier breakout of the powerful support area lying between the support levels 1.0700 and 1.0680 (this support zone has been steadily reversing this currency pair from last June). The breakout of this support area should accelerate the active minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from August. EUR/CHF is expected to fall further toward the next sell target at the support level 1.0650 – the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward the next support level 1.0620 (target price for the completion of the active minor impulse wave (iii)). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12254

Your helpers for technical chart analysis 1/30/2017 In this article, you will find some useful technical indicators that will facilitate your trade and save your time for chart analysis. Chart pattern recognition indicator Candlestick patterns are really quirky. Even when we think that we’ve remembered all the patterns we need accurately, there are good chances that things will get twisted. Where exactly the wick of the candle should start/end; how one bar should be positioned against another one for the right signal. These and many other questions must have been arising in your head when you were struggling to identify the future movement of the prices. There are many indicators that can do the same job for you. So, you won’t need to google shooting, morning stars, haramis every time you want to open a trade. One of such indicators is called the chart pattern recognition indicator. You can easily download it on the Internet and never confound bearish engulfing pattern with its bullish homologs and ext. That’s how it looks in Metatrader 4. Market Profile MetaTrader indicator Another indicator that might grab your attention is Market Profile MetaTrader indicator. It will enable you to monitor the price density over a given period of time. With the help of this indicator, you will quickly identify the most important price levels, value areas. The indicator should be plotted to M5 – D1 timeframes. Example from MT4 Pin-bar indicator The next indicator will help you to find pin-bars – the most effective reversal patterns. Just to remind you, pin-bar is a single candlestick that identifies potential reversals in the market. You might find it easy to identify these patterns at the technical charts. But sometimes we just don’t notice them being focused on other important things. So, the pin-bar indicator will be our reminder of all these needlelike patterns. Example from MT4 More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12253

USD/JPY: bears going to test "Window" again 1/30/2017 The last “Window” acted as a support twice, but we’ve got a bearish “Hammer” and a “Shooting Star”, which both have been confirmed. Therefore, the market is likely going to test 13 & 21 Moving Averages, which could be a departure point for another bullish price movement. We’ve got a new “Window”, which is acting as a resistance. Also, there’s a local “Engulfing”, so bears are likely going to test the lower “Window” in the short term. If a pullback from this level be on the table, there’ll be an opportunity to have a new local high. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12252

Commerzbank warns of potential drop in oil prices 1/30/2017 Brent futures slid to $55.52 from $58.35 (January high) as investors got signals of growing production in the United States that can potentially offset the output cuts implemented by several OPEC members. Baker Hughes rig count climbed by 15 to 566 last week. Donald Trump in his first days as the US President positions himself as protectionist and advocate for the resurgence of the US energy industry. Oil prices were steady in January hovering above $50 as OPEC members and allies fulfilled their promises under the collective agreement. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Algeria said that they had cut output this month by even more that it was required. Russia convinced the market that it’s curbing production faster than it was suggested. The oil market was showing resilience having refused to react to such bearish news as the buildup in the US oil inventories and rigs number. So, at the present time, many investors buy are buying oil futures with expectations that prices will continue their rally in the near-term future. Analysts from Commerzbank call on investors not to be too joyful beforehand and warn them of an imminent decline in oil prices as soon as countries start refusing to adhere to output cuts. Another drag on oil prices – any indication of the growth of the US oil industry (rise in drilling activity, the restoration of pipelines). An additional factor that may contribute to the oil prices’ downfall is Iran’s intentions to increase oil production after international sanctions eased last year. Now, the country persistently seeks funding and technology from abroad to open about 70 oil and natural gas field as soon as possible. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12250

USD/JPY: bulls are intercepted initiative 1/30/2017 Technical levels: support – 114.60; resistance – 115.60. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 114.60; SL — 114.40; TP1 — 115.60; TP2 — 116.10. Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but rising Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and rising Tenkan-sen; the prices are supported by Tenkan-sen. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12249

AUD/USD: aussie going into the Cloud 1/30/2017 Technical levels: support – 0.7530, 0.7480; resistance – 0.7570, 0.7610. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 0.7560; SL — 0.7540; TP1 — 0.7610; TP2 — 0.7660. 2. Buy — 0.7530; SL — 0.7550; TP1 — 0.7480; TP2 — 0.7400. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but falling Senkou Span A; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and falling lines; the prices are in the Cloud. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12248

GBP/USD: bears going to test uptrend 1/30/2017 The price faced a support at 1.2509, so the pair is consolidating. Nevertheless, bears are likely going to test the next support at 1.2490 near the uptrend. If we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be a chance to have a new local high. There’s a “V-Top” pattern, which has been confirmed. Therefore, the market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.2509 – 1.2490 during the day. Considering a possible pullback from this area, bulls will probably try to test the nearest resistance at 1.2619 – 1.2672. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12247

EUR/USD: "V-Top" pushing price lower 1/30/2017 We’ve got a new “Breakaway Gap”, so the price faced a resistance at 1.0745. Also, there’s a “V-Top” pattern, so bears are likely going to test the 34 Moving Average in the short term. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement towards the next resistance at 1.0774. Bulls found a resistance at 1.0745, which led to form a “V-Top” pattern, so the price is declining. The main intraday target is a support at 1.0678, which could be a departure point for another bullish rally in the direction of the last high. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12246

Morning brief for January 30 1/30/2017 USD/JPY dropped to 114.50 on a slightly softer than expected US Q4 GDP, downside miss on durable goods orders and Trump’s immigration policy. On Friday, the US president signed an executive order necessitating suspension of the US refugee program for 120 days and banning all immigrants from 7 Muslim countries for 90 days. So far, we have another protectionist executive order in our piggy bank and there is as yet little flesh on the bones for the FOMC to raise interest rates. This’s non-farm payroll week; who knows, maybe the US data will bring us good news. EUR/USD jumped to 1.0730 on the dipping US bond yields and on the same reasoning that we’ve presented in the first paragraph. Today’s focus will on the US data package: core PCE, personal spending and pending home sales all coming after 15:30 MT time. AUD/USD slid down to 0.7550 in the course of the Asia session. Chinese Lunar New Year holidays kept trading in the Asian session on the subdued side. Kiwi moved downwards having touched 0.7260. The trade balance data was ahead of market’s expectation (the deficit shrank to -41M), but it didn’t put new heart into NZD. USD/CAD advanced to 1.3133 due to the broad weakening of the Canadian dollar. There was a shooting in a Quebec mosque overnight. Five Muslims were killed according to Reuters report. Brent oil futures slowed down their pace and went lower to $55.45 on the Asian session. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12245

USD/JPY: yen is running in the corridors 1/30/2017 On the USD / JPY daily chart, bulls fulfilled the target on the previously formed longs but failed to overcome the important resistance at 115.35. As a result, the descending trading channel has been formed. If quotes don't go out from its boundaries, the upwards trading channel will unlikely be restored. The nearest support is located at 112.5. On the USD/JPY hourly chart, bears are trying to go back to the descending trading channel. The key moment will be the test of the support at 113,95-114. Its breakout can lead to the restoration of the medium-term downward trend. If the aforementioned support is not tested, the bulls may start their attack in the direction of the target 161.8% in the AB = CD pattern. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12244

NZD/USD: kiwi is drawing the second shoulder 1/30/2017 On the NZD/USD daily chart, bulls push prices towards the target 88.6% in the "Shark" inverted pattern. If they manage to test the resistance at 0.735 and 0.7415 (78.6% and 88.6% from the last mid-term descending wave), there might be a restoration of the upward trend. The nearest support lies near the 0.724 level. On the NZD/USD hourly chart, there is a formation of the "Head and shoulders" pattern. A breakout of the neckline near the 0.7225 level can lead to the correction towards 0.7145. In contrast, a successful test of the resistance at 0.7285 will open the way to the north. Recommendations: SELL 0,7225 SL 0,728 TP 0,7145, BUY 0,7285 SL 0,723 TP1 0,735 TP2 0,7415. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12243

Key option levels for Monday, January 30th 1/29/2017 * Data about changes in the open interest will be available on Monday after 12:00 CT (Central Time) EUR/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Neutral Changes in the open interest -?- -?- Closest resistance levels 1.0718(30?); 1.0756; 1.0781; 1.0819 Closest support levels 1.0697; 1.0678; 1.0646; 1.0598 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario (High risk of reversal) Short EUR/USD below 1.0697, with target points at 1.0678 and 1.0646 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0718 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0756 and 1.0781 GBP/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bearish Changes in the open interest -?- -?- Closest resistance levels 1.2578; 1.2596; 1.2623; 1.2643 Closest support levels 1.2521; 1.2501; 1.2476; 1.2449 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario (High risk of reversal) Long GBP/USD above 1.2578, with target points at 1.2596 and 1.2623 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.2521 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.2501 and 1.2476 USD/JPY Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Neutral Changes in the open interest -?- -?- Closest resistance levels 115.04; 115.35; 115.63; 115.83 Closest support levels 114.73; 114.51; 114.23; 113.82 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 115.04, with target points at 115.35 and 115.63 Alternative scenario Moving below 114.73 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 114.51 and 114.23 USD/CAD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bullish Changes in the open interest -?- -?- Closest resistance levels 1.3170; 1.3212; 1.3236; 1.3271 Closest support levels 1.3123; 1.3101; 1.3074; 1.3048 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3170, with the target points at 1.3212 and 1.3236 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3123 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3101 and 1.3074 More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12240

USD/JPY: outlook for Jan. 30 - Feb. 3 1/27/2017 USD/JPY for the second time found support in the 112.50 area. The yen declined Japanese bonds rose as the Bank of Japan stepped in to buy debt. The central bank increased the purchases of bonds due in 5-10 years from 410 billion yen to 450 billion yen. It seems that the regulator aims not to allow the benchmark 10-year yields to exceed 0.10%. Japanese inflation turned out to be slightly better-than-expected in December (core CPI gained 0.3% vs. the forecast increase of 0.2% on the annual basis). The Bank of Japan will meet on Tuesday. No shifts in monetary policy are expected as currently there’s no necessity for additional monetary policy easing. The US dollar’s ability to gain versus the Japanese yen will depend on the actions of Donald Trump, comments from the Federal Reserve and the incoming US economic data. Trading can be volatile as the amount of liquidity will be lower with Chinese markets closed until Wednesday and the US releasing nonfarm payrolls on Friday. The only reason for the yen to strengthen will be a substantial increase in the market’s risk aversion. Above 115.50 USD/JPY will be capable of reaching 117.50. Firm support is located at 112.50. The loss of this level will open the way down to 111.15. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12236

GBP/USD: outlook for Jan. 30 - Feb. 3 1/27/2017 GBP/USD rose to 1.2670 before turning lower. Trading the British pound is not so easy these days. The market is running ahead of the news and most movements are on expectations, but not on the actual events. For example, GBP/USD fell even though it became known that British preliminary Q4 GDP posted a strong gain of 0.6%. It seems that Brexit hasn’t done much to the UK economy yet. British Supreme Court has ruled that the UK government needs an approval of the parliament to trigger Brexit. Yet, few experts doubt that Theresa May will get such an approval. Friendly relations between the US and the UK after the meeting between Ms. May and Donald Trump would support the pound. We will learn much more about the UK’s economic health in the coming days. Don’t miss manufacturing PMI on Wednesday, construction PMI on Thursday and services PMI on Friday. The Bank of England will meet on Thursday. No change in the central bank’s monetary policy is expected. We don’t expect the regulator’s head Mark Carney to say something that would make the pound gain much as the strong pound is not in the interest of the UK economy. Note, however, that the Bank of England will also present its quarterly inflation report. British inflation has accelerated during the recent months. As a result, some analysts have started wondering whether the BoE’s excessive easing steps taken last year were necessary. Carney may have to answer this question. If he acknowledges the strength of British economy, the pound will get a short-term boost. If he underlines that uncertainty about the nation’s economic future is still present, the pound will keep snapping its recent recovery. The pair dipped below the 2-week support line and can test lower levels. However, until the pound is trading above 1.2430/15 area (highs of Jan. 5, 6, 17 and 18), it will retain the ability to reach 1.2775 and get higher. Below 1.2430 we’ll target 1.2300. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12235

EUR/USD: outlook for Jan. 30 - Feb. 3 1/27/2017 EUR/USD tested 1.0775, but didn’t hold there. European economic picture looks fine. PMI showed expansion in both manufacturing and services. At the same time, with the European Central Bank on the loose side, the scope for further increases in EUR/USD looks limited. All in all, the pair is driven primarily by the news from America. If American economy data looks solid – and the odds are it will – the pair will take a swing south. Resistance is at 1.0720 (Jan. 17 high). The pair tested levels support January line. Still, moving averages on H4 are still in the bullish layout, so the pair has to settle below 1.0655 for us to acknowledge the change in trend and set the target to 1.0550/20 area. At the same time, the bulls need to push the euro above 1.0720 for it to regain an opportunity of growth towards 1.0800. As for the euro area’s economic calendar, focus your attention on the region’s consumer inflation figures for January and preliminary Q4 GDP on Tuesday. There will be also economic forecasts from the EU and ECB on Wednesday and Thursday. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12234

US dollar: outlook for Jan. 30 - Feb. 3 1/27/2017 The past week was rather stable for the US Dollar. The greenback got support near December lows and spent most of the time not far from them. The picture for the American currency is ambiguous. On the one hand, it is supported by strong stock market and rising Treasury yields. The hopes that Donald Trump will deliver a stimulus plan have once again increased. On the other hand, his protectionist policies raised uncertainties for global trade. Investors are especially concerned by Trump’s intention to build a wall on the US-Mexican border to reduce illegal immigration and introduce 20% tax on goods from Mexico to pay for the wall’s construction. The Federal Reserve will meet on Wednesday. No changes in the central bank’s monetary policy are expected. Last week the Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen said that she can’t be precise about the timing of interest-rate hikes. Next week the US economic calendar will be packed with data releases: there will be core PCE price index, personal spending & pending home sales on Monday, CB consumer confidence on Tuesday, ADP non-farm employment change & ISM manufacturing PMI on Wednesday & nonfarm payrolls together with ISM services PMI on Friday. All in all, the US dollar should behave in a more or less stable. Short-term swings will be data-driver. The longer-term direction will depend on Trump. There’s bullish engulfing on the daily US dollar index chart. Resistance is at 101.00 and 102.00. Support is at 99.80 and 99.00. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12233

Forecasts for Indonesian Rupiah and Malaysian Ringgit[/img] 1/27/2017 Emerging market currencies are significantly correlated with commodity prices. Therefore, the currently firming global growth and rising oil prices contribute to the appreciation of emerging market currencies. Many believed that emerging market currencies would suffer under US President Donald Trump’s protectionist policies. So far, even after inaction of these trade-flow curbing executive orders, many emerging market currencies are experiencing an impressive rebound. This week was especially favorable for them due to the widespread weakening of the US dollar. Traders might become even less enamored with the American currency if Trump’s spending plans and tax policies fail to realize. Indonesian Rupiah USD/IDR moved choppily in the course of the past week. The prices slid to 13,354 level in the last few days on the relative weakness of the US dollar and rising oil prices. In the near term, the US dollar may extend its gains due to numerous domestic and international fundamental factors. Indonesia is poised to see significant outflows this year as investors become concerned over a religious feud that sparked in the race for Jakarta governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama. Foreign funds have already pulled $110 million from local equities in January. This may be a serious drag on the domestic currency. Morgan Stanley’s recent report predicting a significant drop in the exchange rate of IDR spawned even more risk-averse sentiments among foreign investors. Malaysian Ringgit USD/MYR slipped some point in the course of the past week mainly on the broad weakening of the US dollar. In the longer-term, however, the risks are tilted to the upside especially if we get upbeat economic releases from the US next week, or the talks over imminent Trump’s fiscal stimulus reappear in the media headlines. Additional headwind for MYR may arise as soon as US border taxes become a reality. The USA is one of the main Malaysia’s export partners, so the US protectionist policies will increase the trading costs of Malaysian manufacturers. Investment inflows, however, may offer a modest support to the currency (the country has recently experienced capital inflows ($77 mln) that came from tumultuous Indonesia). The currency pair may continue to trade in the narrow range of 4.4115 (the low of December 12, 2016) – 4.4590 (near the 50-day MA), as it stepped in the Ichimoku cloud on the daily technical chart. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12232

EUR/USD: "Window" acted as a support 1/27/2017 The price reached the 34 Moving Average. Also, the lower “Window” is acting as a support, so we’ve got a “Hammer”, an “Engulfing” and a “Tweezers”, but all these patterns haven’t been confirmed enough. Therefore, the current bearish correction is likely going to end soon, which means bulls will have a chance to test the last high again. We’ve got a pullback from the lower “Window”, so there’re a “Hammer” and an “Engulfing”. In this case, there’s an opportunity to have a local decline during the day. However, the market is likely going to test the nearest Moving Average afterwards. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12230

USD/JPY: bearish "Hanging Man" 1/27/2017 There’s a local correction, which is taking place on the four-hours chart. Also, we’ve got a bearish “Shooting Star” pattern, which hasn’t been confirmed yet. So, the price is likely going to test the 12 & 21 Moving Averages, which both could be a departure point for another upward price movement. We’ve got a “Hanging Man” and an “Engulfing”. If these patterns be confirmed, the market is likely going to test the nearest “Window”, which could act as a support. If we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bullish movement towards the last high. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12231

USD/CAD outlook for January 30 - February 3 1/27/2017 USD/CAD was falling throughout the week on the jitters of Trump’s protectionist executive orders. In the end of the week, the greenback braced up and managed to reverse the downtrend having risen to 1.3110. Next week, the Bank of Canada Governor Poloz is due to deliver his speech. There is a possibility that he will leave the door open for a rate cuts amid the large potential negative shocks to Canada’s economy. This may weigh on the Canadian dollar and allow USD to rise higher. Another headwind for CAD is a looming renegotiation of the NAFTA agreement and introduction of a border adjustment tax offering a tax relief for US manufacturers and creating higher charges for imported products bought within the United States. On Tuesday, traders’ focus will be on the Canadian monthly GDP. But we don’t expect significant gains for CAD from it. The last month GDP figures fell out of market’s expectations. Towards the end of the week, we will be waiting for the US major economic releases (NFP, labor and manufacturing data), that might send greenback higher if the data is strong. Fundamental factors that we’ve just listed make us believe that USD will rise in the short-term. The nearest resistance lines can be found at 1.3160 (near the 100-hour MA), 1.3190 (100-H4 MA and the long-term upward trendline), 1.3290 (near 50-day MA). On the downside, there are several supports located at 1.3050 (January 26 low) and at 1.2985 (near the 23.6% Fibo retracement level from the January last year peak). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12229

GBP/USD: bears broke the "Flag" 1/27/2017 We’ve got a “V-Top” pattern, so the pair found a support at 1.2548. Nevertheless, the market is likely going to reach another support at 1.2490 – 1.2432 shortly. At the same time, there’s an opportunity to have an upward correction later on. There’s a “Double Top”, which led to an achievement of a support at 1.2548. Also, we’ve got a “Flag” pattern, so bears are likely going to reach the 55 Moving Average. Considering a possible pullback from this line, we should keep an eye on a resistance at 1.2581 – 1.2619 as an intraday target. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12225

EUR/USD: bearish "Triple Top" 1/27/2017 We’ve got a “Triple Top”, which led to the current correction. So, the price faced a support at 1.0669, which is strengthened by the 34 Moving Average. Meanwhile, the market is likely going to test the next support at 1.0588 – 1.0578 in the short term. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward movement towards a resistance at 1.0697 – 1.0719. The pair faced a support at 1.0669, so the price is consolidating. However, bears are likely going to reach the next support at 1.0594 during the day. If we see a pullback from this level, bulls will probably try to achieve the nearest resistance at 1.0669 – 1.0697. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12224

Morning brief for January 27 1/27/2017 The yen extended its losses against its major peers as the Bank of Japan stepped in to fulfill its commitment to keep the 10-year yield at around 0%. It boosted the amount of 5-10 year bonds it buys in its outright purchase operations. USD/JPY rose above 115.00 as a result of this. The euro fared worse in a rising US yield environment. EUR/USD went lower to 1.0670 overnight. Today’s focus will be on the US data package which is due at 15:30 MT time. Many expect the US growth to slow to 2.1% from last quarter GDP print – 3.5%. Durable goods are to improve (market participants are waiting for a strong release). AUD/USD slid down to 0.7530 having failed to pare its Wednesday’s post-CPI losses. GBP/USD missed some points having fallen to 1.2565. Yesterday we got upbeat UK Q4 GDP release; the figures were revised to 0.6% from 0.5%. The UK Government has finally issued its Brexit Bill which says no more than the PM may notify the EU of its intention to leave the union. This was well priced in, so sterling hardly moved. USD/CAD ticked up to 1.3115 on the rising US yields and falling oil prices. Brent oil futures capped its gains on the buildup of the US crude oil inventories. The Mexican Peso slumped against the US dollar after Enrique Pena Nieto canceled a planned meeting with the US President Donald Trump. It was Mexican way to express the dissatisfaction with the recent Trump’s executive order aiming at building the wall on the US-Mexican border. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12223