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EUR/USD: bearish extension 2/9/2017 We’ve got a possible zigzag in wave 2, so the price is declining in wave . Previously, a wedge in wave 1 has been formed. The main intraday target is 7/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for a local upward correction. There’s a possible extension in wave (iii). Therefore, wave v of (iii) is likely going to be continued. If a pullback from 0/8 MM Level arrives afterwards, bulls will probably try to deliver wave (iv). More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12416

USD/JPY: bulls going to test "Window" 2/9/2017 The price is still consolidating on the four-hours chart. Also, there’s a “Tower” and an “Inverted Hammer” at the local low. So, the market is likely going to test the upper “Window” in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be a chance to have another decline. The last “Doji” and “Tower” patterns led to the current upward price movement. Meanwhile, bulls are likely going to move on. So, we should keep an eye on the 89 Moving Average as a possible intraday target. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12415

EUR/USD: consolidation going to move on 2/9/2017 We’ve got a “Harami”, which has been confirmed. Also, there’s a bullish “Three Methods”. So, there’s an opportunity to have another test of the lower “Window”, which could be a departure point to a local upward price movement. There’re a “Doji” and a “High Wave”, which both have been confirmed enough. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the lower “Window” during the day. If a pullback from this level happens, bulls will probably try to test the Moving Averages. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12413

7 imminent risks you should worry about 2/9/2017 The biggest threats to portfolio/financial accounts you should beware of 1. Bonds Many asset managers see the hazard on the bond side. The bond yields reached historically low in July 2016; then, the yields on government bonds skyrocketed due to the upbeat macroeconomic releases and uptick in inflation rates. Surging yields hurt investors holding the debt and raise financing costs for companies. 2. US Dollar The resurgence of the US and European economies marks the end of the global economic crisis lasting for almost 10 consecutive years. The danger now is an unexpected rally in bond yields coupled with a significant upsurge in the US dollar exchange rate. It can be very disruptive for markets especially for the emerging ones because investors would rather favor US assets than risk-taking developing markets’ currencies. Strong greenback hurts the country’s exporters and decreases corporate profits. 3. Trump’s policies Market participants can be grossly disappointed once Trump’s expansionary policies are not realized. Increased spending, tax cuts, and deregulation policies have already well priced in my market participants. 4. China China could be the biggest threat to global economic and market stability. The economic growth of the country may eventually slow down. Another key risk to the Chinese economy in 2017 and 2018 is the possibility that faster than expected U.S. interest rate increases could intensify Chinese capital outflows posing additional pressure on China's financial system and exposing it to a debt crisis. China's debt to GDP ratio rose to 277% at the end of 2016 from 254% the previous year; the number is expected to exceed 300% of GDP in the next 2 years. 5. The Fed The Fed can be more hawkish than the market expects if the US steps into the inflationary spiral. Heightened inflation rates could prompt the Fed to raise the interest rates more often. This would decelerate the US economic growth rates and dent investor appetite for risk assets. 6. Europe Upcoming elections in France, Germany and the Netherlands potentially leading to the victory of anti-establishment candidates place a downside pressure on the euro and strengthen the US dollar. Also, there is a chance of early elections in Italy. The Apennine Peninsula also has its populist movements (greeting to Five Star Movement). 7. Australia RBA Governor Philip Lowe has recently placed financial stability at the forefront of monetary policy. Homeowners, property investors and consumers around Australia started to refer to financial helplines as three warning signs pick up the demand: lenders’ bad debt provisions have increased mortgage arrears are increasing, personal insolvencies are at their highest levels. Australians’ private debt spiked to 187% of their income encouraged by low-interest rates. Australia’s households are probably ones of the most indebted in the world with $1 trillion of mortgages amid a housing boom that spread in various parts of the country. Australia was almost deprived of its AAA rating in December. Now, it should face this debt problem until it is too late. The realization of at least one of the aforementioned scenarios can spur a chain reaction potentially leading to the new financial crashes or global economic crises. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12411

Key option levels for Thursday, February 9th 2/9/2017 EUR/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 41 518 ? + 451 586 ? Closest resistance levels 1.0723; 1.0746; 1.0784; 1.0811 Closest support levels 1.0698; 1.0679; 1.0656; 1.0638 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0698, with target points at 1.0679 and 1.0656 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0699 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0723 and 1.0746 GBP/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Bearish Changes in the open interest + 755 ? + 22 ? Closest resistance levels 1.2581; 1.2608; 1.2625; 1.2645 Closest support levels 1.2528; 1.2506; 1.2487; 1.2437 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario (High risk of reversal) Long GBP/USD above 1.2581, with target points at 1.2608 and 1.2625 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.2528 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.2506 and 1.2487 USD/CAD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Bullish Changes in the open interest + 311 ? + 107 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3154; 1.3179; 1.3196; 1.3226 Closest support levels 1.3135; 1.3108; 1.3082; 1.3046 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3154, with the target points at 1.3179 and 1.3196 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3135 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3108 and 1.3082 More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12410

Trade signal from NAB 2/9/2017 The NAB’s technical analysts draw our attention to the AUD/USD weekly chart. There is a bullish reversal pattern formed in the beginning of this year. Another bullish signal – a crossover of 50 MA and 100 MA on the weekly timeframe. There is a number of long-term resistance lines on the Aussie’s upside path located at 0.7730 (the ascending trendline) and at 0.7778/0.7835 (last year highs). They represent rather difficult hurdles to overcome to establish a more sustainable bullish trend. Weekly RSI line overcame two key trend lines last week which is a powerful confirmation of the bank’s bullish signal. A weekly close above aforementioned 0.7730- 0.7750 range can lead to the continuation of the rally towards 2016 highs and ultimately towards 0.8150/0.8300 in the long-term. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12409

GBP/USD: bulls pushing the market higher 2/9/2017 Bulls faced a resistance at 1.2548, so the price achieved the 34 Moving Average, which led to the current consolidation. In this case, the market is likely going to test the 89 Moving Average in the short term. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be a chance to have an upward price movement towards a resistance at 1.2548 – 1.2599. The price is consolidating under a resistance at 1.2548. Meanwhile, there’s a “Double Top” pattern, so bears are likely going to achieve a support at 1.2486 – 1.2458. If we see a pullback from this area, bulls will probably try to reach a resistance at 1.2548 – 1.2571. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12408

USD/JPY: Dollar in Tenkan-Kijun’s channel again 2/9/2017 Technical levels: support – 111.80; resistance – 112.50, 112.70. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 112.50; SL — 112.70; TP1 — 111.80; TP2 — 111.30. Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but the lines SSA and SSB are horizontal; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, the lines are horizontal; the prices are in channel of Tenkan-Kijun. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12405

GBP/USD: pound keep staying in Cloud 2/9/2017 Technical levels: support – 1.2450; resistance – 1.2560. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.2450/60; SL — 1.2430; TP1 — 1.2560; TP2 — 1.2590. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but falling Senkou Span A; a cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are under the top border of the Cloud. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12404

Morning brief for February 9 2/9/2017 Kiwi skidded to 0.7190 after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cash rate announcement and Governor wheeler’s press conference. The market has been pricing for 1.5 hikes from the RBNZ over the upcoming 12 months after heightened Q4 inflation figures, but the RBNZ made it clear that it is not planning any hikes until 2019. The bank’s officials noted that the present value of NZD is not sustainable for balanced growth, so, they will try to talk it down in the process. It seems that NZD weakness was carried over to the Aussie as it dipped to 0.7610 in the course of the session having ended it with a modest gain (moved higher to 0.7625 after downfall). Earlier today, we got a NAB business confidence survey that was a bit weaker than the Q3 update. The tone of the survey was rather positive indicating solid investment intentions and adequate long-term employment expectations. So, AUD reacted with a blip on the technical chart. Later today, traders will be watching the RBA Governor Philip Lowe speaking at the A50 Australian Economic Forum. The US dollar has clawed back a tad against the euro in the early hours of the Asian session. EUR/USD retraced to 1.0680 on the tantalizing prospects of corporate tax reductions, deregulations from Trump’s administration and French election jitters. The latest Institut français d'opinion publique poll shows Macron winning in the second round against le Pen 64:36 because of the two-round system requiring the broad-based support to become the next president. But this doesn’t eliminate uncertainty, as the National Front leader is ahead in polling for the first ballot that is expected on April 23. Today’s focus will be on the US unemployment claims and FOMC member Evans’s speech. Chicago Fed President Evans seems comfortable with multiple hikes this year; so, we might expect some support for the US dollar from his comments. GBP/USD slid to 1.2595 on the session. The Brexit bill passed by the House of Commons overnight and now it is heading to the unelected Housed of Lords with the final vote to be delivered on March 7. At the time being, Theresa May is meeting her self-imposed deadline for triggering Article 50 by the end of March. USD/CAD retraced to 1.3140 in the course of the Asian session mainly on the surging oil prices. Brent oil futures spearheaded on Wednesday after the US crude inventories data indicated an unexpected drop. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12403

USD/JPY: Wolf Waves will indicate a further path for the yen 2/9/2017 On the USD/JPY daily chart, there is a consolidation within the mid-term upward trend. The nearest resistance level is located at the 112.5 level. A successful test of this resistance will allow quotes to return to the previous trading range located at 112.5-114. The support can be found near the 111.15 mark (38.2% level of the last upward medium term wave). On the USD/JPY hourly chart, there is a formation of Wolf waves. A breakout of the diagonal resistance at 112.45 will allow opening long positions in direction of 114.55. There is a 161.8% target in the "Crab" inverted pattern. Recommendation: BUY 112,45 SL 111,90 TP1 113,35 TP2 114,55. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12402

AUD/USD: bulls are losing their interest 2/9/2017 On the AUD/USD daily chart, bears managed to return quotes to the support at 0.7605. A breakout of this support can lead to the correction towards the 0.754 level. Alternatively, a rise of prices above the 0.7665 level can lead to the restoration of the trend and fulfillment of the target 88.6% in the "Shark" inverted pattern. On the AUD/USD hourly chart, there is a consolidation within the uptrend. A successful test of the support at 0.7605 will allow Aussie to return to the 0.7515-0.7605 range. To restore the "bullish" trend buyers need to raise quotes above the resistance at 0.769. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12401

EUR/NZD broke key support level 1.4700 2/8/2017 EUR/NZD broke key support level 1.4700 Next sell target - 1.4400 EUR/NZD continues to fall after the recent breakout of the key support level 1.4700 (which reversed the previous impulse waves 1 and (i), as can be seen from the daily EUR/NZD chart below). The breakout of this support level accelerated the active minor impulse wave (iii), which belongs to the impulse wave 3 of the extended intermediate impulse sequence (3) from last October. EUR/NZD is likely to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 1.4400. Sell stop-loss can be placed at half the daily ATR above the aforementioned price level 1.4700. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12396

NZD/JPY reached sell target 82.00 2/8/2017 NZD/JPY reached sell target 82.00 Next sell targets – 81.00 and 80.50 NZD/JPY continues to decline following the earlier breakout of the support zone lying between the support level 82.50 and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction level of the previous upward impulse from December. The breakout of this support zone intensified the bearish pressure on this currency pair – leading to the subsequent breakout of the next support level 82.00 (previous sell target set for this currency pair). NZD/JPY is expected to fall to the next sell target at the support level 81.00 – the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward the next sell target at 80.50 (low of the previous correction (ii)). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12395

Review on George Soros's book 2/8/2017 “Scientific method seeks to understand things as they are, while alchemy seeks to bring about a desired state of affairs. To put it another way, the primary objective of science is the truth, - that of alchemy, operational success.” ― George Soros, The Alchemy of Finance This phrase succinctly explains the meaning of the book's title. The primary objective of trading is to unravel the behavioral pattern of other market participants for generation of maximum profit. George Soros is best remembered as a speculator who tilted against the Bank of England in 1992. Traders thrust a status of a financial guru upon him. Some people will remember him for his philanthropical conducts. This article was written to present George Soros as a man notable for his crackling wit exerted in the book The Alchemy of Finance. In this writing, the author explains the philosophical underpinning of his approach to financial markets, widely known as the theory of reflexivity. Its main position states as follows: investor’s and trader’s biases can change the fundamentals that assist in determining market prices. According to Mr. Soros, the direction of market prices is determined by market participants, their prevailing expectations. And financial success can be achieved by those who can recognize the dominant patterns in the behavior of market participants. The latter ones cannot predict the future with 100% accuracy; they make presumptions, formulate various hypotheses about how the events will unfold and then submit them to the test engaging in the financial markets’ operations. Prices are mere reflections of the dominant strand of thought in the markets; they foreshadow events, but don’t shape them. If the prevailing view in relation to a certain event is wrong the prices change their direction and adjust to the actual situation. In his book, George Soros describes his own decision-making process. First, he makes a projection with regard to a certain event and then tries it on practice. All his forecasts are extremely tentative and subject to constant revision in the light of market developments. Mr. Soros admits that his predictions are not always consistent with the actual course of events; sometimes his perceptions are flawed. His approach is not to make valid predictions, but to be able to sort out the false ones with the help of the market action mechanism. If you want to know more about Soros’s strategy of trading, read the Alchemy of Finance. For many successful traders, this book has become a desk companion, a plentiful source of inspiration and confidence. Even our old friend Paul Tudor Jones II in his foreword to the first edition of “The Alchemy of Finance” says that he constantly refers to Soros’s writing to regain self-reliance when he enters the inevitable losing streak. DOWNLOAD THE BOOK More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12394

EUR/USD: wave is on the way 2/8/2017 The price has been declining since wave 2 was ended in a form of a zigzag. Previously a wedge in wave 1 has been formed. Therefore, bears are likely going to break 7/8 MM Level in the short term. There’s an extension in wave (iii), which is taking place on the one-hour chart. The main intraday target is 0/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for wave iv. Meanwhile, bears are likely going to deliver wave v of (iii) afterwards. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12393

USD/JPY: Moving Average going to act as a resistance 2/8/2017 There’re a “Tower” and a “Hammer”, which both have been confirmed. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the 21 Moving Average, which could bring any bullish pattern. If so, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline. We’ve got a “Hammer” and a “Harami”, so the pair is likely going to get a resistance on the 55 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, bears will probably try to test the last low one more time. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12392

EUR/USD: "Window" acting as a support 2/8/2017 The price is continue declining, so bears faced a support on the lower “Window”. The market is likely going to try to break this “Window” in the short term. If any bullish pattern arrives afterwards, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward correction. We’ve got a developing bearish candle in a range of the “Window”. Also, there isn’t any reversal pattern so far. In this case, if we see a pullback from the “Window”, bulls will probably try to deliver a local correction. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12391

Key option levels for Wednesday, February 8th 2/8/2017 EUR/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 35 706 ? + 66 233 ? Closest resistance levels 1.0710; 1.0734; 1.0756; 1.0793 Closest support levels 1.0659; 1.0639; 1.0615; 1.0586 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0659, with target points at 1.0639 and 1.0615 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0710 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0734 and 1.0756 USD/JPY Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 475 ? + 657 ? Closest resistance levels 112.31; 112.50; 112.80; 113.02 Closest support levels 111.86; 111.68; 111.35; 110.85 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 112.31, with target points at 112.50 and 112.80 Alternative scenario Moving below 111.86 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 111.68 and 111.35 USD/CAD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bullish Changes in the open interest + 75 ? + 177 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3205; 1.3233; 1.3273; 1.3324 Closest support levels 1.3153; 1.3125; 1.3106; 1.3080 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short USD/CAD below 1.3153, with the target points at 1.3125 and 1.3106 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3205 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.3233 and 1.3273 More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12389

NZD/USD outlook on the back of RBNZ announcement 2/8/2017 The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to deliver its rate and monetary policy statements today at 10:00 pm MT time. The bank will probably hold its official cash rate on hold at 1.75% even though inflation gathers pace faster than the RBNZ expected. The bank officials will most likely be reluctant to raise interest rate any time soon willing to hinder the NZD appreciation and looking for further pieces of evidence of the acceleration of the actual inflation rates. So, at the coming meeting, RBNZ might adopt a wait-and-see approach and remain in its November’s neutral comfort zone for a while. And such accommodative monetary policy stance may result in market's disappointment. The kiwi spiked to 0.7375 on Tuesday but failed to hold its positions or rise further. As a result, a bearish shooting star has been formed leading to the retracement in short-term. There are several supports on the downside located at 0.7270 (the lower Bollinger band on the daily timeframe), 0.7245 (100-day MA), that won’t allow kiwi to slide to the bottom. The upcoming RBNZ rate announcement may bring lots of choppiness to the chart which eventually might not result in any gains or losses.IMG] More: [uURL=https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12388]https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12388[/url]

AUD/USD: aussie will be supported by Cloud 2/8/2017 Technical levels: support – 0.7620; resistance – 0.7690, 0.7720. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 0.7620/30; SL — 0.7600; TP1 — 0.7690; TP2 — 0.7720. Reason: expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud; a correctional irregular dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are on the support of the Cloud. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12387

EUR/USD: euro will test SSB 2/8/2017 Technical levels: support – 1.0640; resistance – 1.0740, 1.0770. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.0650; SL — 1.0620; TP1 — 1.0740; TP2 – 1.0770. Reason: narrowing bullish Ichimoku Cloud; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are in correction and under the support of Senkou Span B. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12386

GBP/USD: bulls going to test nearest resistance 2/8/2017 We’ve got a “V-Bottom”, so the price reached a resistance at 1.2548. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the 55 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, bulls will probably try to test a resistance at 1.2548 – 1.2599. There’s a “Triple Bottom”, which pushed the price to a resistance at 1.2548. In this case, bears are likely going to achieve the nearest support at 1.2458 – 1.2432. If we see a pullback from this area, there’ll be a chance to see the market higher, so we should keep an eye on a resistance at 1.2548 – 1.2581 as a possible intraday target. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12385

EUR/USD: bearish "Flag" 2/8/2017 The price has broken the lower side of the last “Rising Wedge” and the local uptrend. The 89 Moving Average acted as a support, so the price is consolidating. In this case, the market is likely going to test the nearest support at 1.0619. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement towards a resistance at 1.0669 – 1.0697. The pair faced a support at 1.0655, which led to the current consolidation. Also, there’s a “Flag” pattern, so bears are likely going to test a support at 1.0619 during the day. Considering a possible pullback from this level, there’s a chance to have a bullish movement in the direction of the closest resistance at 1.0670 – 1.0678. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12384

Morning brief for February 8 2/8/2017 The euro moved below 1.0675 against the US dollar amid the investors’ concerns over looming French elections. Many analysts believe that the EUR is en-route to parity in the upcoming three months with moderate monsieur Francois Fillon still being embroiled in the scandal, monsieur Hamon still making overtures to Melenchon, and Marin Le Pen being confident in her win in the first round. The yen extended its losses against the greenback. The latter one managed to move to 112.30 on the session. We don’t expect significant moves from the pair today; it seems that the trading will be subdued on the back of Abe-Trump meeting scheduled for Friday. AUD/USD slid to 0.7630 on the Asian session having given back the yesterday’s post-RBA gains. Today’s economic calendar is rather light with the RBNZ rate and monetary policy statements, and the US crude oil inventories. NZD/USD moved lower to 0.7290 in the countdown to the Reserve Banks of New Zealand meeting. The bank is expected to leave its official rate cash unchanged at 1.75%. Traders will be looking for the RBNZ’s monetary policy statement struggling to decipher the future rate path. The bank’s officials will unlikely introduce any significant changes to its present monetary policy stance despite the uptick in Q4 inflation data. Therefore, the New Zealand shouldn’t receive a weighty support from today’s statement to recoup its recent losses. GBP/USD spiked to 1.2545 overnight. The rally was triggered by hawkish comments from a BoE senior official Forbes. She said that the Bank of England might soon need a rate hike as inflation could rise faster than it is expected. The pound for the present moment is the only currency that is still holding its ground against the US dollar. The Canadian dollar has strengthened against its US peer in the course of the Asian session striving to erase its yesterday’s losses. USD/CAD jumped above 1.3210 on the falling oil prices and disappointing data releases from Canada. Brent oil futures pared significant losses as China’s demand for oil has shrunken overshadowing the OPEC members’ efforts to cut output. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12383