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Morning brief for February 13 2/13/2017 The US regained its mojo by the end of the past week mainly due to Trump’s hint of an extensive tax reform announcement. USD/JPY swung to 114.16 having initially declined to 112.85 after the Trump-Abe joint conference. The leaders refrained from arguing about Japan’s currency policies and focused on the easing in tensions between the US and Asian countries. In general, the meeting was held on a very friendly note. The current rebound in the USD/JPY may extend if prices manage to test 114.50. The euro declined against its US counterpart to 1.0620 on France’s pre-election jitters. Aussie and kiwi resisted the US dollar strength in the early hours of Asian session having. The AUD, however, ran out of steam very soon having fallen from 0.7690 to 0.7665, while NZD edged up to 0.7200. USD/CAD spiked to 1.3120 but failed to hold its positions at that point, having slid to 1.3090. Brent oil future dipped to $56.63 on Monday after strong gains last week on reports that OPEC members continue fulfilling their pledge under November agreement to slash production significantly. GBP is trading sideways around 1.2500 level showing a particular resistance to the pound. GBP/USD will probably continue its consolidation in the range of 1.2350 – 1.2600 waiting for the official Brexit tempest. The Economic calendar for today is very light. There is almost no news that could potentially become market drivers. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12444

USD/CHF: franc is losing its ground 2/13/2017 On the USD/CHF daily chart, a breakout of the upper boundary of the downward trading channel demonstrates the willingness of the bulls to gain the lead. A necessary condition for the restoration of the long-term uptrend is the ability of buyers to keep the quotes above the 1.004 level (38.2% level of the XC-wave in the "Shark" pattern). On the USD/CHF hourly chart, target 1.004 on the previously formed longs has been fulfilled (BUY 0,9945 SL 0,989 TP 1,004). For the continuation of the rally, the "bulls" will need to test the resistances at 1.105 and 1.016. Recommendation: BUY 0,998 SL 0,9925 TP1 1,016, TP2 1,024. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12442

USD/JPY: "Window" acted as support 2/13/2017 There’re a “Tweezers” and a “High Wave”, which both have been confirmed. The last candle couldn’t close below a support by the nearest “Window”. If any bullish pattern arrives later on, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bullish price movement towards the closest resistance. We’ve got a confirmed “Tweezers” at the local low. In this case, the market is likely going to continue moving up in the direction of the last high. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12441

EUR/USD: bearish "Shooting Star" 2/13/2017 We’ve got two “High Waves”, which have been confirmed enough. Also, there’s bearish “Engulfing”. If this pattern confirms, the market is likely going to test the nearest support, which could be a departure point for a local upward price movement. The 55 Moving Average acted as a resistance, so we’ve got a “Shooting Star”, which has been confirmed. Therefore, bears are likely going to reach the nearest support in the short term. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12440

Key option levels for Monday, February 13th 2/12/2017 * Data about changes in the open interest will be available on Monday after 00:45 CT (Central Time) * EUR/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Neutral Changes in the open interest -?- -?- Closest resistance levels 1.0650; 1.0672; 1.0702; 1.0751 Closest support levels 1.0634; 1.0609; 1.0592; 1.0569 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0634, with target points at 1.0609 and 1.0592 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0650 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0672 and 1.0702 USD/JPY Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Neutral Changes in the open interest -?- -?- Closest resistance levels 113.42; 113.68; 113.96; 114.17 Closest support levels 113.01; 112.71; 112.49; 112.22 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 113.42, with target points at 113.68 and 113.96 Alternative scenario Moving below 113.01 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 112.71 and 112.49 USD/CAD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bullish Changes in the open interest -?- -?- Closest resistance levels 1.3096; 1.3120; 1.3142; 1.3179 Closest support levels 1.3062; 1.3043; 1.3017; 1.2980 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3096, with the target points at 1.3120 and 1.3142 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3062 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3043 and 1.3017 More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12439

Fundamentals for trading GBP 2/12/2017 There are many economic releases that influence the pound the most and help us to form a comprehensive view of its further direction. CPI report The latest CPI figures beat the market expectations having risen by 1.2% from November’s update. It was the highest inflation rate since July of 2014 boosted by risings costs of transport, housing and utilities amid a weakening pound. The Bank of England expects a rather moderate acceleration of the inflation rate through this year and 2.8% uptick in 2018. In addition, the Monetary Policy Committee expressed its readiness to tolerate such pace of price rates allowing the country’s economic growth to gather momentum. Bank Rate, BOE Inflation Report These reports have a great impact on the pound’s value. The rate decisions are delivered by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on the monthly basis. Sometimes they are accompanied by elaborated statement which sparks traders’ interest and give them clues about the future central bank’s undertakings. The recent BoE’s report and rate statement sent the pound below 1.2510 from 1.2705. The bank officials voted unanimously to hold the bank rate at a record low of 0.25%. The greatest effect produced an accompanying statement in which policymakers said that they are ready to respond in either direction (to cut or raise interest rate) for the better economic outlook. There was no hint of worries about the heightened inflation rates; the economic growth of the UK took the center stage in the BoE’s monetary policy report. Gfk Consumer Confidence, Nationwide Consumer Confidence These surveys gauge the consumers’ readiness to spend/buy in the nearest future, trace whether the country’s citizens are optimistic about the economic or grossly pessimistic. In simple terms, they get inside into consumers’ expectations for the next half of the year. Gfk is designed to reflect the respondent's feelings towards events that happened in the previous 12 months, and their expectations for the next 12 months. Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, Retail Sales, GDP All these reports are the gauges of the country’s economic growth. The primary measure of economic activity in the UK is the gross domestic product (GDP). There are three different GDP reports traders should be aware of – Preliminary GDP, Revised GDP and Final GDP. The Preliminary GDP estimate is the earliest gauges of the country’s economic health. Therefore, it tends to have the biggest impact on the currency, but at the same time this release is the least accurate; later, it becomes a subject for revision (Revised GDP and Final GDP reports offer a more comprehensive outlook of the UK economy, but they may not expect fireworks from them). Trade Balance, Current Account The gauges represent an accounting record of country’s interaction with the rest of the world. The BoP is made up of three accounts, but generally, only the current account is of interest to forex traders. The current account shows the amount of imported and exported products and services, traces the flow of income payments and transfer payments. A current account surplus is positive for the currency and a deficit is negative Brexit factor Another fundamental factor that poses significant pressure on the British pound is the Brexit process. After June 23 vote to exit the EU, GBP fell to its historically low levels against the greenback. The renewed weakness followed after Mrs. May set the Brexit deadline (March 31). Once Article 50 is triggered the United Kingdom will start its formal negotiation with the EU on the future relationships. The official exit from the EU should bring lots of new challenges for the British economy. It will have to go through a thorny path of adjustment to the new economic and political environment. Now, we may only guess whether the UK made a right choice exiting the European Union or not. What we can say for sure is that the “Brexit” will be a buzz word for a very long time. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12431

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USD/CHF broke above parity 2/10/2017 USD/CHF broke above parity Next buy target - 1.0100 USD/CHF continues to rise after the recent breakout of the parity. The breakout of this resistance level greatly accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (3) – which started earlier from the support area lying between the key support level 0.9900, lower daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction level of the previous sharp upward impulse from November. USD/CHF is expected to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 1.0100. Buy stop-loss can be placed at half the daily ATR (Average True Range) below the parity More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12438

CAD/JPY reversed from combined support zone 2/10/2017 CAD/JPY reversed from combined support zone Next buy target – 88.00 CAD/JPY continues to rise inside the minor impulse wave (iii), which began earlier – when the pair reversed up from the combined support zone lying at the intersection of the support level 85.00, lower daily Bollinger Band and the support trendline of the latest daily down channel from December. CAD/JPY is expected to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 88.00 (which coincides with the resistance trendline of the aforementioned down channel and which reversed the earlier impulse wave (i) with the daily Shooting Star in January). More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12437

US dollar: outlook for February 13-17 2/10/2017 The US dollar managed to recover during the past week. Positive vibes for the American currency came from the comments of Donald Trump. According to him, he will release a “phenomenal” tax plan in the next few weeks. The market players used to buy USD in November and December on hopes that Trump will take fiscal steps to revive the nation’s economic growth. Then, at the beginning of 2017 traders got disappointed in the US currency as Trump stopped talking about the fiscal stimulus. Now the expectations of higher spending and tax cuts are back, and it’s good for the greenback. Another important factor for the USD is the Federal Reserve. The greenback fell earlier in February after the less hawkish Fed’s statement. We’ll find out more about the central bank’s intentions when the Chair Janet Yellen testifies on the US economy and monetary policy before the Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. In addition, pay attention to the upcoming US economic data – release of PPI on Tuesday, CPI, retail sales & industrial production on Wednesday, building permits, Philly Fed manufacturing index and unemployment claims on Thursday. A close above 101.00 in the US dollar index will make it form the weekly bullish engulfing pattern. In this case, the target area will be at 101.30 (50-day MA) and 102.00. Support lies around 98.80 (100-day MA). More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12435

EUR/USD: outlook for February 13-19 2/10/2017 The pair has moved abruptly down. Political picture for the region looks tense. Investors are still worried that a far-right candidate can win French presidential election and take the county out of the euro area. In addition, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said that Greece should leave the euro area if it cannot fulfil its bailout commitments. EUR/USD breached January support line in the 1.07 area and fell to 1.0640 (38.2% Fibonacci of this year’s advance). Below this point the euro will be vulnerable for a decline to 1.06 (50-day MA), 1.0580 (50% Fibo) and 1.0550 (bottom of the daily Cloud). Between 1.0550 and 1.05 there are many support levels formed by late November and early December lows. Here are also the targets of the broken trend channel. Resistance is at 1.0680 and in the 1.0715/25 area. In the region’s economic calendar there will be many releases on Tuesday (German and the euro area’s Q4 GDP, German economic sentiment and the European economic forecasts). The ECB will publish accounts of its last monetary policy meeting on Thursday. Keep an eye on the news from the US as well – comments of Donald Trump and the Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12434

USD/JPY: outlook for February 13-17 2/10/2017 The pair tested the lowest levels since the end of November, but then managed to recover. The Bank of Japan had to increase its buying in "superlong" bonds on Friday in order to keep rising yields in check. Such policy is reining in the yen’s appreciation. At the same time, some experts are concerned that it may become more difficult for the BOJ to take any easing measures in the future – an idea that will likely limit the dollar/yen’s ability to strengthen. There’s also some seasonal negative pressure on the pair because of the JPY cash repatriation by Japanese companies. All in all, we are currently seeing a balance of negative and positive factors for the pair that won’t let it diverge far from the current levels. Further dynamics of the pair will largely depend on the results of the meeting between the US president Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. To be more precise, it will depend primarily on Trump’s comments after the meeting. If he sounds friendly, the greenback will rise up in relief, but if he’s harsh and criticizes Japan for its currency and trade policy, the US dollar will decline and the yen will go up. USD/JPY has a support of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud around 111.50. The fate of the pair will be decided near 114.00. Here’s the resistance line from January highs. A weekly close above this mark will open the way to 115.50 and 116.30 (top of the daily Cloud). Otherwise, the dollar will resume its drift lower towards 111.40, 110.55 (100-day MA) and 109.90 (bottom of the daily Cloud). Japan will release preliminary Q4 GDP on Monday and industrial production on Tuesday. Economists expect a decent reading. In addition, pay attention to the US economic calendar, especially to comments by the Federal Reserve’s Chair Janet Yellen on Tuesday and Wednesday. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12433

EUR/USD: wave (iii) is about to end 2/10/2017 Wave 2 has been formed like a zigzag, so the price is declining. Previously, a wedge in wave 1 has been formed. Therefore, we could have wave in the short term. As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s an extension in wave (iii). So, if a pullback from 0/8 MM Level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have wave (iv). In this case, we should keep an eye on 2/8 MM Level as a possible intraday target. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12432

NZD/USD: outlook for February 13-17 2/10/2017 Kiwi declined after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand killed hopes for a rate hike this year. The Monetary Policy statement noted that exchange rate remains higher than is sustainable and that a depreciation of the kiwi is needed to revive the country’s economic growth. The kiwi slumped to 0.7170 after the announcement but managed to muster its strength on Friday having risen above 0.7190. Next week the US dollar will be a bellwether of NZD/USD currency pair. On Tuesday, don’t miss the Fed Chair Yellen speaking before the Senate Banking Committee. On the next day, she will testify on the semiannual monetary policy report. Towards the end of the week, traders will be waiting for the New Zealand quarterly retail sales data, US building permits, Philly Fed manufacturing index and unemployment claims. The technical outlook for NZD/USD currency pair is neutral. The prices are consolidating in the range of 0.7175-0.7205 after the massive downfall. There is a small room for NZD/USD appreciation towards the nearest resistance lines located at 0.7220, 0.7245 (61.8% Fibo level from September 4 high). On the downside, there is a strong support located at 0.7130 (50% Fibo level). A move below this level would suggest that a deeper pull-back towards 0.7150/0.7130 has started. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12430

GBP/USD: outlook for February 13-17 2/10/2017 GBP/USD has firmed at the end of last week on the upbeat macroeconomic data from the UK and the relative weakness of the US dollar. Having lost around a fifth of its value in recent years, the pound has become tempered by bad news and very responsive to good news. So, the swift passage of the Brexit bill through the lower chamber of the Parliament left the pound intact. In contrast, the hawkish comments from MPC member Forbes and Friday’s strong economic releases boosted the sterling’s upsurge. All in all, the formal triggering of Article 50 should result in the additional dip in GBP. Next week will bring us inflation reports from the both sides of the Atlantic. Janet Yellen is expected to shed some light on the future path of the Fed’s rate hikes on Tuesday. On Wednesday, traders will be glued to the screens struggling to decipher her message to the House Financial Services Committee. Any hawkish comments from the Fed’s Chair will be supportive for the greenback. If Trump announces the details of his tax plans next week, it will lead to further appreciation of the US dollar. GBP/USD keeps consolidating in a broad range between 1.27 and 1.2430. The pound has to rise above Thursday’s high at 1.2580 to test the top of this range. A number of fundamental factors that we have specified earlier might send sterling lower towards the nearest supports located at 1.2415 (50-day MA), 1.2370 (200-H4 MA) and 1.23. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12429

Key option levels for Friday, February 10th 2/10/2017 EUR/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 38 465 ? + 22 229 ? Closest resistance levels 1.0677; 1.0698; 1.0723; 1.0767 Closest support levels 1.0656; 1.0623; 1.0603; 1.0577 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0656, with target points at 1.0623 and 1.0603 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0677 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0698 and 1.0723 USD/JPY Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 1 540 ? + 1 370 ? Closest resistance levels 113.79; 114.19; 114.47; 114.80 Closest support levels 113.17; 112.87; 112.56; 112.07 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 113.79, with target points at 114.19 and 114.47 Alternative scenario Moving below 113.17 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 112.87 and 112.56 USD/CAD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bullish Changes in the open interest + 64 ? + 244 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3135; 1.3161; 1.3182; 1.3212 Closest support levels 1.3110; 1.3072; 1.3040; 1.2995 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3135, with the target points at 1.3161 and 1.3182 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3130 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3110 and 1.3072 More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12428

GBP/USD: "Double Top" led to decline 2/10/2017 The price faced a resistance at 1.2599. Meanwhile, there’s a “V-Top” pattern, which pushed the pair to the 34 Moving Average. So, the market is likely going to test a support area between the 89 Moving Average and the level 1.2432. If a pullback from these levels happens, there’ll be a chance to have an upward movement in the direction of a resistance at 1.2548 – 1.2599. The pair is consolidating near a support at 1.2486. Nevertheless, bears are likely going to test a support at 1.2458 – 1.2432 during the day. However, if we have a pullback from this area, bulls will probably do their best to reach a resistance at 1.2548 – 1.2571. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12427

AUD/USD: aussie still on the Cloud 2/10/2017 Technical levels: support – 0.7620; resistance – 0.7690, 0.7720. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 0.7640; SL — 0.7620; TP1 — 0.7690; TP2 — 0.7720. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B is horizontal; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; narrow channel of Tenkan and Kijun; the prices are on the support of the Cloud. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12426

EUR/USD: euro testing SSB again 2/10/2017 Technical levels: support – 1.0640; resistance – 1.0740, 1.0770. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.0660; SL — 1.0640; TP1 — 1.0740; TP2 – 1.0770. Reason: Ichimoku Cloud changed the character; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are still in correction and on support of Senkou Span B. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12425

EUR/USD: bears going to test the next support 2/10/2017 The price is still consolidating near the broken uptrend. So, bears are likely going to reach a support at 1.0619 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bullish price movement towards the nearest resistance at 1.0669 – 1.0697. We’ve got a “Double Top”, so the price reached a support at 1.0655. Also, there’s a “Flag” pattern. In this case, the market is likely going to achieve the next support at 1.0640 – 1.0619. However, bulls will probably try to test a resistance at 1.0698 – 1.0707 afterwards. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12424

Morning brief for February 10 2/10/2017 The trade was reignited overnight after the US President flagged an impending tax announcement within two or three weeks. The markets took a new lease of life waiting for more details on Trump’s fiscal plans. In addition, US Appeals Court upheld the suspension of Trump’s immigration ban having said that the new administration failed to offer ground evidence that national security is threatened. The ruling was a positive input for the US markets as it justified the dominance of law over poorly framed whims of the executive branch of power. The euro retraced to 1.0645 against the US dollar still being pressured by political concerns over France’s presidential elections. USD/JPY spearheaded on Thursday and extended its gains in the course of the Asian session. Today’s focus will be Abe-Trump meeting. Japan’s prime minister will propose talks on trade, security, macroeconomic issues. In addition, Abe will try to convince Trump in the purity of Bank of Japan’s undertakings. USD/JPY rose to 113.70 on the back of the meeting. The Australian dollar traded higher in the early hours of the Asian session after a rather sanguine RBA’s monetary policy statement. Chinese upbeat trade balance data released earlier this morning nudged Aussie a little higher to 0.7640. Aussie’s strength was handed over to kiwi. NZD took a baby step in the northern direction against its US counterpart. Yesterday NZD/USD slumped 0.7170 after Reserve bank of New Zealand put the kybosh on the possibility of rate hikes in 2017. Further elucidation of Trump’s fiscal policies will pressure the kiwi’s upward movement. GBP/USD dipped to 1.2500 on the Asian session on the strengthening of the greenback. Today’s focus will be on the UK manufacturing production, goods trade balance data and the US University Michigan consumer confidence index. USD/CAD was trading choppily in the course of the past session. For the present moment, the pair is hovering around the 1.3140 showing readiness to shoot in either direction. Traders should keep an eye on the Canadian labor data coming at 3:30 pm MT time. Brent futures extended its gains having risen to $55.75 from yesterday’s low at $55.20. The oil prices were bolstered by evidence that the gasoline demand could strengthen in the nearest future. Keeping the focus on the oil there are two pieces of data investors should be aware of – monthly oil report of the International Energy Agency and the Baker Hughes rig count. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12423

Gold isn't afraid of the correction 2/10/2017 On the daily chart of gold "bulls" failed to attack the resistance located at $1,241. The rollback sent quotes towards the support at $1,220. If it is tested successfully, bears may count on the movement towards the upward trading channel. On the hourly chart of gold, the trendline in the "Splash and reversal with acceleration" pattern has been broken. The correction in the direction of the lower boundary of the upward trading channel is likely to continue. Recommendation: BUY $1206 SL $1190 TP $1235. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12422

USD/CAD: loonie is wandering in the channels 2/10/2017 On the USD/CAD daily chart, Wolf wave are still relevant. The diagonal line of resistance shifted lower due to the formation of a new fractal. A necessary condition for the restoration of "bullish" trend is the successful test of 1.3220 and 1.3305 levels. The nearest support can be found near the 1.3 level. On the USD/CAD hourly chart, a successful test of the resistance at 1.315 followed by the quotes' exit from the descending trading channel will allow "bulls" to regain their confidence. But first, they will have to keep quotes above the 1.3125 mark (38.2% level of the AB wave). Recommendation: BUY 1,315 SL 1,3095 TP 1,3305. More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12421

AUD/NZD broke resistance level 1.0600 2/9/2017 AUD/NZD broke resistance level 1.0600 Next buy target - 1.0650 AUD/NZD continues to rise following the earlier breakout of the resistance zone lying at the intersection of the resistance trendline of the daily down channel from November and the resistance level 1.0550 (which reversed the previous waves B and (ii), as can be seen below). The breakout of this resistance zone accelerated the active intermediate impulse wave (3) from the end of January. Having just broken the resistance level 1.0600 - AUD/NZD is expected to rise further to the next buy target at the next resistance level 1.0650 (former monthly high from November). More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12418

NZD/USD reversed from resistance level 0.7400 2/9/2017 NZD/USD reversed from resistance level 0.7400 Next sell target – 0.7120 NZD/USD recently reversed down from the powerful resistance level 0.7400 (which stopped the previous intermediate (-wave in November and which was set as the buy target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair). The downward reversal from this resistance level created the daily Japanese candlestick reversal pattern Shooting Star. NZD/USD is expected to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 0.7120 (which reversed the price in the middle of January and which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward impulse from December). More: https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/12417