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EUR/USD: "Hammer" led to correction 2/14/2017 The price reached the lower side of the support area, so we’ve got a “Tower”. If this pattern confirms, bulls are likely going to test the 21 Moving Average, which could be a departure point to another decline. We’ve got a “Hammer” and a “Tweezes” at the last low. Also, there’s a “Harami” pattern, which hasn’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the nearest support once again. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement in the direction of the 55 Moving Average. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12478

AUD/NZD reached buy target 1.0650 2/14/2017 AUD/NZD reached buy target 1.0650 Next buy target - 1.0740 AUD/NZD continues to rise after the recent breakout of the key resistance level 1.0650 (which earlier reversed the price sharply in last November and which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of the resistance level 1.0650 accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the end of January. AUD/NZD is expected to rise further to the next buy target at the key resistance level 1.0740 (which reversed previous waves (1) and (a) in last October, as can be seen below). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12476

AUD/CHF reached buy target 0.7700 2/14/2017 AUD/CHF reached buy target 0.7700 Next buy target – 0.7800 AUD/CHF continues to rise after the price earlier broke above the resistance level 0.7700 (which is the second of the two buy targets set in our previous forecast for this currency pair - 0.7650 and 0.7700). The breakout of the resistance level 0.7700 is expected to accelerate the active minor impulse waves (iii) and 3 – both of which belong to the sharp intermediate ©-wave from November. AUD/CHF is expected to rise to the next buy target at the resistance level 0.7800 (target price calculated for the termination of the active impulse wave 3, intersecting with the resistance trendline of the wide daily up channel from last June). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12475

Richard Dennis: trading coach of turtles 2/14/2017 Richard Dennis is well-known as the most successful of the breed of Chicago's commodity traders. He began trading at a very early age under the name of his father (because underage citizens were not allowed to participate in trading activities at that time) and made huge profits very soon from his modest $400 capital. In 1970, he increased it to $3,000, then, in 1973 turned this sum into $100, 000. By the age of 25, he became a millionaire trading soybeans and other commodity units. The most famous experiment in trading history Richard Dennis has always believed that successful trading is not a natural ability, but something that can be taught to anyone. His faithful friend Bill Eckhardt once questioned this assurance saying that only very talented people can become successful in trading. For Eckhardt, genetics and aptitude were the determining factors. The virtuous millionaire Dennis decided to prove to his long-time friend that any wily street fella without any natural predisposition to trading or some particular wit could be taught to trade successfully. He held a social experiment setting up a group of duffers who knew nothing about investing and trading. Mr. Dennis called his trainees the “Turtles” (he had just returned from Singapore and was impressed by how Singaporeans were growing turtles). In a matter of time, sponsored and mentored by the prince of the pit these luckies (Dennis’s turtles) did earn whaling sums of money and made ample amend for Dennis’s kindness. Thereby, Richard Dennis proved that trading could be taught and that any person with little or no trading experience can become excellent traders with a simple set of rules. Eckhardt-Dennis social experiment was immortalized in the film “Trading places”, starring Dan Aykroyd and Eddie Murphy. Trading tips from Dennis Exit the market at the first signs of the destabilization thereby protecting yourself from greater losses. The loss of even a small share of the capital is always destructive to the trader’s ability to analyze the market’s situation. So, never engage in a new trade after you suffered some losses. You should always analyze your market activities (even if you earned money on the bet). The traders start making mistakes when they discard the randomness of the market’s movements; technical analysis is as important as fundamental one. Trading novices shouldn’t rush into risky trades struggling to make a lot of money from their first trades. It is better to gain some experience before trading with a great sum of money. Try different trading techniques, look for new trading opportunities; don’t follow the constant trading pattern. When you are on a losing streak (when your losses are so big that you get depressed), it is better to start doing business and stop trading for a while. Richard Dennis was dubbed the king of futures. This financial instrument was a goldmine for him. In the mid-eighties, many stock traders were following all Dennis’s trades closely. It was believed that if Richard Denis set his heart on a particular asset, it will soar in the future. But we must admit that the legendary trader was not always on a roll. In 1987, Mr. Dennis for some strange reasons decided not to follow his usual trading rules, got himself involved in a number of high-risk trades and lost millions of dollars entrusted to him by other investors. After this failure, he got depressed and vowed not to trade his or other people's money. In 1994 he returned to the commodity market and made huge profits once again. He became a real hero in the trading world. For unknown reasons, he always tried to shrug off the status of trading guru granted to him by many generations of traders. Instead, he called himself a random cold-blooded mechanical trader with the great experience under the belt. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12473

EUR/USD: wave [ii] started 2/14/2017 Wave has arrived, so there’s time for a correction. Previously, wave 2 has been formed like a zigzag. So, bulls are likely going to deliver wave [ii] in the short term There’s a bearish impulse in wave . Also, we’ve got a pullback from -1/8 MM Level. Likely, wave [ii] is going to form a zigzag, so we should keep an eye on 2/8 MM Level as a possible intraday target. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12472

Ahead of Yellen’s testimony 2/14/2017 The key event of the day is the Fed’s Chair Yellen’s semi-annual testimony before the Senate Banking scheduled for 17:00 MT time. Banks’ projections: Barclays The bank’s analysts expect Janet Yellen to reiterate her public remarks made on January 19. Back then she said the US economy had made considerable progress towards the Fed’s 2% inflation target and full employment but was not at risk of overheating. That’s why the Fed would continue to adjust interest rates gradually, in accordance with the fiscal measures implemented by the new US administration. BofA Merrill Strategists from BofA Merrill as their colleagues from Barclays expect Ms. Yellen to sound similar to her recent speech. In the Q&A session, the Chair is likely to defend the Fed’s independence and reiterate that the fiscal stimulus is needed and that the Fed must proceed with its gradual hiking cycle. Arguments against the hike in March from Reuters: There is no clarity on the size, scope, and timing of the Trump’s tax. This makes it difficult for the Fed to chart its course for interest rate policy. Uncertainty over the US administration’s fiscal plans prevents the FOMC members from raising rates. The Fed’s ability to project a significant shift in the economy is limited. So, their promises of rate hikes are not always fulfilled. So, in 2012 it was said that interest rate would increase in 2014, but didn’t change until December 2015. In 2016 a forecast of 4 rate hikes failed to realize. So, it seems that we should be skeptical about the probability of these rate increases. The inflation rate is still below the Fed’s 2% target (it nearly reached it though – presently at 1.6%). The view of the minority: Albert Edwards, a market strategist at Société Générale, believes that Janet Yellen might trigger a steep bond selloff by talking up the possibility of rate increases at the Fed’s upcoming meeting in March. Edwards is not the only one who expects Yellen to flag the possibility of a rate hike in March. According to the Wall Street Journal surveys of a group of experienced analysts, the probability of the rate increase in March is currently featuring 25.8%. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12471

AUD/USD: aussie want to go higher 2/14/2017 Technical levels: support – 0.7660; resistance – 0.7690, 0.7720. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 0.7660; SL — 0.7640; TP1 — 0.7720; TP2 — 0.7780. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span B is horizontal; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are supported by the Cloud. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12469

EUR/USD: local trend is changed 2/14/2017 Technical levels: support – 1.0600, 1.0570; resistance – 1.0640, 1.0700. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.0570; SL — 1.0550; TP1 — 1.0640; TP2 – 1.0700. Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are under the Cloud, but there is a strong support near 1.0600. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12468

GBP/USD: bulls going to test nearest resistance 2/14/2017 We’ve got a “V-Bottom”, so the price is testing a resistance at 1.2548. Nevertheless, bulls are likely going to test the next resistance at 1.2581 – 1.2630 in the short term. Considering a possible pullback from this area, there’s an option to have a decline towards a support at 1.2509 – 1.2445 afterwards. The last downtrend has been broken, so the price is consolidating. However, we’ve got a “Pennant” pattern. In this case, the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance at 1.2581 – 1.2599 during the day. If a pullback from these levels happens, bears will probably try to reach a support at 1.2509 – 1.2486. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12467

EUR/USD: "Double Bottom" led to upward movement 2/14/2017 Bears faced a support at 1.0588, so we’ve got a “V-Bottom”, which pushed the price to a resistance at 1.0619. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the next resistance at 1.0655. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards a support at 1.0588 – 1.0578. The price is consolidating along the nearest support at 1.0588. In this case, the pair is likely going to reach the nearest resistance at 1.0619 during the day. However, if we see a pullback from this level, bears will probably try to achieve a support at 1.0588 – 1.0578. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12466

Morning brief for February 14 2/14/2017 Janet Yellen is ready to testify on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report The US dollar took a hit in the course of the Asian after Trump’s National Security Advisor Michael Flynn stepped down. The euro gained some strength having risen to 1.0610 against the greenback. Today’s focus will be on the first of Janet Yellen’s two semi-annual Congressional testimonies. She is expected to reiterate her message from her recent speech that the economy is close to full employment and inflation rates have heightened a bit (remaining short of the Fed’s coveted target, however). Janet Yellen will likely struggle to offer concrete guidance outside of the existing gradual approach to reducing the extent of accommodative policies having taken into account the fact that the timing of Trump’s expansionary fiscal policy is still unknown. Some Congress members might be quizzing her on the prospects of seeking reappointment after the expiration of her term next January. GBP/USD went higher on the session. Market participants should keep an eye on the UK’s latest inflation data coming at 11:30 MT time. After the recent comments of MPC member Kristen Forbes these figures will probably become a real object of interest. Last week she said that the faster growth of the inflation rates won’t be welcomed by some of the BoE’s officials. From the past meeting, it became clear that the bank is not going to raise rates anytime soon, but if CPI data does spring an upside surprise the British pound may get a substantial lift. AUD/USD spiked to 0.7680 in the early hours of the session due to the strong business conditions and confidence data that showed the best result in almost three years. Copper extended its rally climbing 0.6% to the highest since May 2015. Iron ore prices have also made some gains on Tuesday having climbed to its highest levels since August 2014. USD/CAD dropped to 1.3045 having extended its yesterday’s losses. The economic calendar was light, so the real focus was on the Canadian PM Trudeau’s trip to Washington. The US President’s comment on the future US-Canada trade relationships was reassuring for the Canadian dollar. Oil prices have pared their recent losses. Brent oil futures rose to $55.66 on OPEC-led efforts to cut production. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12465

AUD/USD: bulls are aware of the presence of Shark 2/14/2017 On the AUD/USD daily chart, bulls are still struggling to fulfill the target 88.6% in the "Shark" inverted pattern. If they manage to do it, the rally towards 113% target will continue. The nearest support is located near the 0.7605 level. On the AUD/USD hourly chart, a successful test of the resistance at 0.769 will allow the "bulls" to push the quotes beyond the consolidation range at 0.7605-0.769. This may lead to the fulfillment of the target 200% in the AB = CD pattern. Recommendation: BUY 0,769 SL 0,7635 TP 0,779. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12464

GBP/USD: the pound cannot define its future path 2/14/2017 On the GBP/USD daily chart, there is a consolidation in the range of 1.234-1.258. To restore the bullish trend, the bulls will need to test the resistance at 1.264 and 1.268. On the GBP/USD hourly chart, there are two scenarios for the pound. 1. A breakout of the resistance at 1.258, followed by the rally towards 1.263 and rollback to 1.258 will be a signal of the bulls' weakness. This will allow us to sell the pound. 2. Formation of the second shoulder of the "Head and shoulders" pattern, followed by the return of quotes to the neckline can lead to the restoration of the long-term bearish trend. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12463

Key option levels for Tuesday, February 14th 2/14/2017 * Data about changes in the open interest will be available on Tuesday after 01:50 CT (Central Time) * UPDATED EUR/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 73 973 ? + 309 848 ? Closest resistance levels 1.0617; 1.0645; 1.0680; 1.0706 Closest support levels 1.0594; 1.0572; 1.0554; 1.0529 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long EUR/USD above 1.0617, with target points at 1.0645 and 1.0680 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.0594 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.0572 and 1.0554 USD/JPY https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/12462/USDJPY(94).png Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 122 ? - 164 ? Closest resistance levels 113.69; 113.91; 114.23; 114.47 Closest support levels 113.46; 113.25; 112.94; 112.44 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short USD/JPY below 113.46, with target points at 113.25 and 112.94 Alternative scenario Moving above 113.69 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 113.91 and 114.23 USD/CAD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Bullish Changes in the open interest - 146 ? + 13 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3075; 1.3101; 1.3127; 1.3167 Closest support levels 1.3045; 1.3006; 1.2972; 1.2927 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3075, with the target points at 1.3101 and 1.3127 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3045 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3006 and 1.2972 More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12462

NZD/CAD falling inside intermediate correction (2) 2/13/2017 NZD/CAD falling inside intermediate correction (2) Next sell target - 0.9350 NZD/CAD continues to fall inside the intermediate correction (2) – which started earlier from the resistance zone lying between the pivotal resistance level 0.9630, (which also previously reversed the earlier wave ( and 3), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction level of the previous sharp downward corrective wave ? from the start of November. NZD/CAD is expected to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 0.9350 (target price calculated for the completion of the active correction (2)). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12457

USD/JPY broke daily Falling Wedge 2/13/2017 USD/JPY broke daily Falling Wedge Next buy target – 115.00 USD/JPY continues to rise after the price earlier broke the resistance trendline of the daily Falling Wedge chart pattern from January. The breakout of this Falling Wedge continues the active minor impulse wave 3, which started earlier from the support area located between the pivotal supprt level 111.60 (which also reversed the price in November) and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse 1 from November. USD/JPY is expected to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 115.00 (top of the previous minor (-wave from the end of January). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12456

USD/JPY: bulls going to test "Window" 2/13/2017 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/12455/1302usdjpyH4.png We’ve got an “Inverted Hammer”, which led to the last upward price movement. At the same time, there’s a bearish “Harami”, which hasn’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, the pair is likely going to test the nearest support. If a pullback from this level happens, bulls will probably try to deliver a new local high. There’s a new “Window”, but we’ve got a “Shooting Star” at the last high. Considering a confirmation of this pattern, the price is likely going to test the 34 Moving Average, which could be a departure point to another bullish rally More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12455

EUR/USD: "Window" acted as a resistance 2/13/2017 We’ve got a “High Wave” and a “Harami”, which both have been confirmed enough. Therefore, the upper “Window” is likely going to act as a support. If so, bulls will probably try to test the nearest Moving Averages. There’s a “Hammer” at the last low. However, we’ve got a local “Shooting Star”, but a confirmation of this patters is a quite weak. So, the market is likely going to test the 55 Moving Average during the day. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12454

EUR/USD: wave is about to end 2/13/2017 Wave is about to end. So, we could have a new low in the short term, but then bulls are likely going to deliver wave [ii]. In this case, we should keep an eye on 8/8 MM Level as a possible intraday target. We’ve got two pullbacks from 1/8 MM Level in a row. Therefore, there’s an opportunity to have wave (v) of during the day. If a pullback from -2/8 MM Level happens, bulls will probably try to deliver an upward correction. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12452

Oil prices are still steady, but for how long 2/13/2017 Brent oil futures dipped to $56.40 as investors booked profits ahead of the OPEC’s monthly report that should reveal how well the member countries adhere to planned output cuts. The oil prices have become vulnerable to any bearish news as the OPEC output cut is fully priced into the market. It seems that on Monday the equilibrium has been shattered and tilted to downside. Negative fundamental factors: * The US rig count rose in the precedent week. Baker Hughes reported on Friday, that drillers added 8 oil rigs in the week to February 10, bringing the total number of the US rigs to 591 (the highest number since October 2015). Source: Investing.com * Russian export volume is still high despite the production cuts. Russia participates in output reductions under November agreement. There are signs of Russian production cuts, but the exports are still high. Russians keep high export volume at the cost of lower domestic supply and by reducing their inventories. * OPEC members voiced their concerns over further cut reduction. The longer and deeper their cuts, the more they cede market share to their competitors (the US drillers, for example, or other countries not participating in the global oil cut agreement). Positive/nearly positive fundamental factors: * According to the International Energy Agency report, OPEC implemented OPEC implemented 90% of promised output cuts last month. Non-OPEC members which voluntarily joined the agreement fulfilled their pledges by 50% (it’s a positive factor, but we must admit that full compliance with the agreement has not been achieved which indicates producers’ reluctance to lose their income and market share; there are always free riders among oil producers willing to cheat) * Global oil demand is expected to rise in 2017 The factors listed above make us believe that the current oil prices rally is not long-lasting. It may end very soon once the reports start dispelling doubts about OPEC’s adherence. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12451

Is the US stocks rally just getting started? 2/13/2017 The US stocks hit record highs as investors assessed Trump’s pledge to overhaul business taxes in the upcoming weeks. The S&P 500 Index rose to a record 2,316.10, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average moved through 20, 270 having added 96.97 points. The Nasdaq Composite Index set new highs at 5,735 having added 0.33% on Friday. The investors are being exultant over reignition of stocks’ post-election rally which had stalled in recent weeks on concerns over Donald Trump’s protectionist executive orders and fuzzy perspectives for the tax reforms. Now, as hopes for massive cut tax and deregulation policies have been rekindled, the shares soar to their record highs blessing Mr. Trump for his pro-business policy agenda. Source: Bloomberg.com Many stock market analysts believe that Trump factor will favor the recent shares’ rally for a quite extended period of time. Trump is not a Republican neither he is a Democrat; he is a businessman who will not tolerate the US stock market dips and will try his best to heighten employment rates in the United States. So, his presidency might become the greatest boost for the stock market. Some investors, however, voice their concerns over the everlasting rally in the US stocks saying that protectionist policies and insufficient partisan support for the Trump’s ambitious projections may wind down investors’ optimism. Rating agencies are also skeptical with the regard to the uptick in the US companies’ growth. Over the last year, the average rating of some Dow Jones constituents has deteriorated from A+ to A (23 from 30 Dow components have been downgraded). This might have happened because of the fears of higher interest rates and their effect on company finances, or of Trump’s protectionist policies. But if Trump’s fiscal policies do become a real boost for the US economy, credit rating agencies will give in to investors’ positive forecasts and upgrade the ratings. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12450

GBP/USD: "Double Bottom" pushing the market higher 2/13/2017 We’ve got a “V-Bottom”, so the pair is likely going to test the nearest resistance at 1.2548 – 1.2581 in the short term. If a pullback from these levels happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards a support at 1.2433 – 1.2411. There’s a “Double Bottom”, so the price is consolidating. Therefore, bulls are likely going to reach a resistance at 1.2548 – 1.2581 shortly. Considering a possible pullback from this area. Bears will probably try to reach a support at 1.2458 – 1.2432. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12449

EUR/USD: bulls going to test Moving Average 2/13/2017 Bears faced a support at 1.0619, so the price is consolidating. Therefore, the market is likely going to test a resistance at 1.0655 – 1.0669. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards the nearest support at 1.0588 – 1.0578. The price is moving in a flat’s range. At the same time, bulls are likely going to test the 34 Moving Average during the day. If we see a pullback from this line, bears will probably try to achieve a support at 1.0588 – 1.0578. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12448

USD/JPY: moving to Senkou Span B 2/13/2017 Technical levels: support – 113.60; resistance – 114.40, 114.80. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 113.60; SL — 113.40; TP1 — 114.40; TP2 — 114.80. Reason: narrowing bearish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, rising Tenkan-sen; the prices are under Senkou Span B. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12446

GBP/USD: pound ready to breakout 2/13/2017 Technical levels: support – 1.2465; resistance – 1.2500, 1.2560. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.2480; SL — 1.2460; TP1 — 1.2560; TP2 — 1.2590. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are under the upper border of the Cloud. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12445