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USD/JPY: outlook for February 20-24 2/17/2017 USD/JPY managed to test resistance close to 115.00 as Trump didn’t criticize currency Japan’s policy at the latest meeting with Shinzo Abe, but then got rejected lower on the general setback in demand for the greenback. The pair formed a shooting star candle against the 50-day MA. The force of this resistance has thus increased. However, the US dollar will have support around 112.50 (here was a buying interest in January). As long as the pair stays above this point, we’ll be looking for the opportunities for long positions. Below 112.50 focus on support at 111.40 and then 109.90. Japan’s GDP growth slowed down from 0.3% in Q3 to 0.2% in Q4, although industrial production increased more than expected in December. Japan will release trade balance figures on Monday and flash manufacturing PMI on Tuesday. In addition, don’t forget to watch US data and FOMC meeting minutes. Finally, remember that USD/JPY is sensitive to changes in global risk sentiment. Demand for the safe havens may lead to further decline in USD longs and buying of JPY. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12538

USD/CAD: outlook for February 20-24 2/17/2017 The greenback was trading almost unchanged against its Canadian counterpart at the end of the past week, with USD/CAD consolidating in the range of 1.3005 – 1.3120. Monday’s Trump-Trudeau joint press conference was reassuring for the Canadian dollar, as the US President advocated the strengthening of the US-Canada trade ties. On Valentine’s day, the greenback was Yellen-kissed as the Fed’s Chair hinted at a rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting. Towards the end of the week, the US dollar ran out of steam having ceded ground to loonie. The underlying fundamentals, however, still favor a higher USD/CAD with March FOMC hike odds marching higher and the BoC’s rate increases hardly seen on the horizon. This week, we would recommend you to focus on the Canadian retail sales and CPI data as the CAD is becoming more and more decoupled from crude oil dynamics and yield differentials between the US and Canadian money markets. The technical picture for the USD/CAD is neutral. The quotes are ranging in the narrow band of 1.2995 – 1.3180 levels (upper and lower Bollinger bands on H4 timeframe). Relying on the USD/CAD fundamentals, we would bet on the USD appreciation towards the nearest resistance level at 1.3140 (200-day MA), 1.3178 and 1.3230 (50-day MA). On the downside, a few supports can be found at 1.3040 and 1.2995 levels, and in a longer-term at 1.2895. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12531

AUD/CAD reversed from resistance zone 2/17/2017 AUD/CAD reversed from resistance zone Next sell target - 1.0000 AUD/CAD recently reversed down from the strong resistance zone located between the key resistance level 1.0080 (which reversed earlier waves (, (1) and 1), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 61.85 Fibonacci correction level of the previous sharp downward impulse from the start of November. The downward reversal from this resistance zone stopped the previous minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from January. AUD/CAD is expected to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 1.0000 (which reversed the previous minor correction 2). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12543

EUR/AUD reversed from long-term support level 1.3730 2/17/2017 EUR/AUD reversed from long-term support level 1.3730 Next buy target – 1.4000 EUR/AUD recently reversed up sharply from the powerful long-term support level 1.3730 (which also previously reversed the price multiple times at the start of 2015, as can be seen below). The support zone near the support level 1.3730 was strengthened by the lower weekly Bollinger Band. If the pair closes this week near the current levels it will form the weekly Japanese candlestick reversal pattern Hammer. Given the oversold reading on the weekly Stochastic indicator - EUR/AUD is likely to correct up further to the next buy target at the round resistance level 1.4000. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12542

EUR/USD: zigzag in wave [ii] 2/17/2017 There’s a bearish impulse in wave . Previously, wave 2 has been formed like a zigzag. So, we could have wave [ii] soon. The main intraday target is 8/8 MM Level. We’ve got a possible bullish impulse in wave (a), so the price is declining in wave (. If we see a pullback from 6/8 MM Level, there’ll be an opportunity to have wave © of [ii]. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12541

USD/JPY: bulls going to deliver a correction 2/17/2017 The last “Tweezers” and “Engulfing” pushed the market lower. So, the price is likely going to continue falling down towards the nearest “Window”, which could be a departure point for a local bullish rally. We’ve got a “Hammer”, but this pattern hasn’t been confirmed yet. In this case, there’s an opportunity to have a local bullish correction towards the closest resistance. If a pullback from this level happens, bears will probably try to deliver a new low. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12540

EUR/USD: upper "Window" going to act as a resistance 2/17/2017 There’s a “Tower” pattern, which hasn’t been confirmed yet. So, the market is likely going to test the nearest support in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a local upward price movement. We’ve got a “Hanging Man” and a “Shooting Star”, which both have been confirmed. Therefore, bears are likely going to achieve the closest support level during the day. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12539

Gold: outlook for February 20-24 2/17/2017 Gold futures soared to $1242.80 per ounce in the course of the past week having posted their seventh weekly gain in eight weeks. Much of this rally has been based on the looming elections in Europe, political uncertainty in the US over tax cuts and the UK separation with the EU. The US stocks unprecedently keep pace with the yellow metal futures having spiked to their highest levels in three years. Some analysts send alerts to the investors saying that the safe-haven asset might be vulnerable as the US equities remain near their record high. If the US dollar pares its recent losses helped by promised fiscal stimuli and hawkish comments from the Fed’s officials, the precious metal will be sent to the negative area. Next week beware of potential threat coming from the FOMC meeting minutes that should be released on Wednesday. If the minutes show the Fed’s readiness for rate hikes, gold futures are poised to slide downwards. The rest of the week shouldn’t bring lots of disturbances to the chart. In the meantime, the technical picture for the XAU/USD is bullish. Gold futures nudged above the important resistance located at $1242.20 (near 200MA on the weekly timeframe). A move above the $1255.60 resistance level (61.8% Fibo retracement level from the high seen after Trump’s victory) can lead to the continuation of the rally towards the next hurdle at $1262.70 (200-day MA). In the case of the reversal, the prices may slide towards the supports at $1230.25 (50% Fibo level + the upper boundary of the Ichimoku cloud on the daily timeframe), $ 1205.05 (38.2% Fibo retracement level). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12536

GBP/USD: outlook for February 20-24 2/17/2017 In line with our expectations GBP/USD spent the week consolidating between 1.2380 and 1.2550. The topic of Brexit is temporarily on the sidelines, ready to resurface later this month. Economic data released in the UK mostly disappointed. CPI growth was a bit lower than expected, while the growth pace of average earnings declined. British retail sales also contracted in January. The most important releases of the upcoming days include public sector net borrowing on Tuesday and second estimate GDP and prelim business investment on Wednesday. The bears made another assault on the 100- and 50-day MAs just above 1.2400, but failed to keep the pair below these lines. On H4 the 200-period MA once again acted as good support (currently at 1.2400). The moving averages here are horizontal. Note though that the pair’s range is getting narrower, that means that the breakout of the current ranges is coming closer. Looking at the series of lower highs we assume that the pound is more vulnerable to the downside than to the upside. Below 1.2400 we’ll target 1.2345 and 1.2260. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12535

EUR/USD: outlook for February 20-24 2/17/2017 EUR/USD dipped as low as to 1.0520. Economic data released in the euro area were mostly negative. GBP growth slowed down from 0.5% in Q3 to 0.4% in Q4. The region’s industrial production contracted more than expected in December, and ZEW economic sentiment missed the forecast. The minutes of the European Central Bank's (ECB) latest monetary policy meeting showed that the regulator isn’t planning to dial back on monetary stimulus. In addition, market players keep following developments in France. The positions of the conservative candidate Francois Fillon keep worsening as the investigation into the fake work scandal continues. Although Marine Le Pen, who supports Frexit, is not likely to win the overall elections, political factors will still limit the euro’s upside. Moreover, the pair is certainly very sensitive to the things happening in America. USD dollar events represent the pair’s primary drivers. As for the European economic calendar, there will be a release of flash manufacturing & services PMIs on Tuesday. German Ifo business climate, as well the region’s final CPI are due on Wednesday. The release of German consumer climate is scheduled on Thursday. The pair formed a hammer and managed to close above the 50-day MA above 1.0600. The euro still has met resistance at 1.0680 (weekly pivot, Jan. 12 high). Another significant resistance is located around 1.0715 (Jan. 17 high) and 1.0730 (100-day MA) ahead of 1.0775. All in all, support around 1.0500 (late November lows) is very strong. It’s reasonable to expect longer consolidating above this area. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12534

US dollar: outlook for February 20-24 2/17/2017 US dollar index rose to 101.75 during the past week before returning back to 100.55 area. Economic data released in the US were mixed. January CPI, PPI, retail sales, building permits and Philly Fed manufacturing index exceeded forecast, although industrial production disappointed. The Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen told the Congress that the regulator could cause a recession if it waited too long to raise interest rates. This statement surprised the market given the sluggish wage growth and the uncertainty created by Donald Trump’s presidency. The market players still don’t believe that the Fed will raise rates 3 times this year and this is diminishing USD strength. The resignation of the US National Security Adviser Michael Flynn did provoke investors’ concerns. However, Trump did promise to unveil a "phenomenal" tax plan in the coming weeks. Hopes of fiscal stimulus should provide the US dollar with some support. US markets will be closed on Monday because of the bank holiday. On Tuesday, we’ll hear further comments from the Fed: Kashkari and Harker, who are both voting FOMC members this year, will speak. On Wednesday, American central bank will release the minutes of its recent meeting as well as the existing home sales data. Last time the Fed’s statement was more dovish than the market has expected. It contrasts with the recent more hawkish tone of Yellen, so traders will be paying much attention to the minutes to find out the opinions of other Fed members. On Thursday, there will be unemployment claims and the US crude oil inventories and on Friday America will publish new home sales and revised UoM consumer sentiment figures. DXY failed to close above the 50-day MA (101.36) and it formed a shooting star candle next to this line. The weekly close below this line will make the greenback vulnerable for a decline to 100.10 (100-day MA) and 99.50/99.26. Further resistance is at 102.00. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12533

EUR/GBP: outlook for February 20-24 2/17/2017 The EUR/GBP currency pair rose in the course of the past week feeding on the BoE’s pledge not to raise the interest rate for an extended period of time. The euro got an additional boost from the miss on the UK monthly retail sales data. The figures added to evidence that the long-awaited squeeze in household spending is materializing as the purchasing power of the UK citizens keeps eroding by surging prices. That may hurt an economy that relies heavily on consumers for growth. We expect the euro to extend its gains next week despite Draghi being dovish in the January ECB meeting, undying talks on the QE tapering and political risks in some Eurozone countries ahead. Manufacturing data from the key Eurozone countries are expected on Tuesday. The previous figures were supportive for EUR and this time the same may happen. The UK economic calendar is light with the only focus on the second estimate of GDP coming on Wednesday at 4:30 am MT time. The near-term technical outlook for the pair is bullish. The resistance at 0.8640, 0.8710 and 0.8860 (23.6% Fibo retracement level from the June 24, 2016 low) represent immediate hurdles above which the cross will unlikely manage to extend its gains. In the case of the reversal at aforementioned levels, the pair might be ready to test the supports located at 0.8540 (50-day MA), 0.8460 (200-day MA) and 0.8420 (50% Fibo retracement level). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12532

GBP/USD: price going to go around in a circle 2/17/2017 Bulls faced a resistance at 1.2509, so the price is consolidating. Meanwhile, the market is likely going to reach the next resistance at 1.2548 – 1.2581. However, if we see a pullback from this area, there’ll be an option to have a downward price movement towards a support at 1.2465 – 1.2432. All Moving Average have been broken. In this case, bulls are likely going to test the closest resistance at 1.2538 – 1.2548 in the short term. If a pullback from these levels arrives afterwards, bears will have a green light to reach a support at 1.2509 – 1.2486. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12530

EUR/USD: bulls going to test the next resistance 2/17/2017 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/12529/17-2-2017-EUR-H4.png[/iG] There’s a “V-Bottom” pattern, which led to the current upward price movement. Bulls faced a resistance at 1.0684, but the market is likely going to continue moving up, so we should keep an eye on the next resistance at 1.0713 as a possible intraday target. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards a support at 1.0632. The price is consolidating under a resistance at 1.0684. At the same time, bulls are likely going to push the pair even higher during the day. If a pullback from a resistance at 1.0698 – 1.0707 happens, bears will probably try to test the nearest support at 1.0669 – 1.0658. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12529

GBP/USD: pound returned to positive area 2/17/2017 Technical levels: support – 1.2490; resistance – 1.2560. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.2490; SL — 1.2470; TP1 — 1.2560; TP2 — 1.2590. Reason: narrow bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the narrow channel Tenkan-Kijun; the prices are on the support of the Cloud. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12527

EUR/USD: bulls tested Cloud’s resistance 2/17/2017 Technical levels: support – 1.0640; resistance – 1.0690, 1.0710. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.0640; SL — 1.0620; TP1 — 1.0690; TP2 – 1.0710. Reason: narrowing bearish Ichimoku Cloud; a cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and the lines are horizontal; the prices are near the Cloud’s resistance. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12526

Morning brief for February 17 2/17/2017 Market participants had a peeve on the US dollar overnight after it weakened in the currency space despite the upbeat economic release. The greenback was softer mainly because of the US Treasury yields came off their recent highs. USD/JPY dropped to 113.00 after the pair almost approached the 115.00 threshold. Earlier this morning the USD managed to gather its momentum having edged to 113.40 level. If USD/JPY manages to reclaim its positions at around 114.60, it will be a signal of a considerable weakness of the yen. Some spicy expressions from Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer He refused to unlock the Fed’s secrets about the number of hikes this year but said that the observable activity in the labor market and heightened inflation rates are consistent with the Fed’s projections. Stanley Fischer put an emphasis on the gradual rate increase, keeping hopes of a near-term hike alive, especially if next month’s payrolls data is strong. The euro hiked to 1.0680 overnight against USD but failed to consolidate its positions there having slipped some points in the early hour of the Asian session. This session is poised to be subdued since today’s economic calendar is very light. GBP/USD was a winner earlier this morning having risen circa 1.2510. A breakout of the resistance at 1.2520 (near the 100MA on the H4 timeframe) may push the quotes higher towards the resistance at 1.2710. The Sterling focus will be the release of the January retail sales report (11:30 MT time). After a disappointing December data, the market braced up for OK figures for January. If the release is in line with market’s expectation, the pound will gain a modest support. Aussie rallied to fresh highs at 0.7730 overnight on the upbeat Australian labor market report but failed to stay in that area for a long time closing the day in red around 0.7685. In the Asian session, AUS/USD managed to pare its earlier losses having advanced to 0.7710 level. A further upsurge is a bit problematic. We would be waiting for a correction as the pair approaches 0.7770 level (September 2016 high). USD/CAD went lower on the session. The pair might continue moving sideways in the narrow range of 1.3050 – 1.3080 levels trying to define its further direction. Today’s focus will be on the Canadian foreign securities purchases ( coming at 15:30 MT time). Brent oil futures built some gains having risen to $55.70 in the past sessions on the positive sentiments over reports that OPEC members may consider extending the timing of their output-reduction agreement. Keep an eye on the weekly US Baker-Hughes oil rig count numbers coming tonight. In the absence of the significant releases, it may become a real market trigger for oil prices and for USD/CAD currency pair. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12525

USD/CHF: bears-bulls 5-0 2/17/2017 On the USD/CHF daily chart, there is an implementation of the 5-0 pattern. After the correction at 50% level of the CD wave, the pair returned to the "bearish" trend. To restore it, sellers need to test the support at 0.985. On the USD/CHF daily chart, due to the "Splash and reversal with acceleration" pattern, there was a change of the trend. The angle of slope has increased 1.5 times, and the breakout of the trendline at the intermediate stage and at the stage of splash freed bears' hands. Recommendation: SELL 1,002 SL 1,0075 TP 0,9916. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12524

GBP/USD: pound made friends with Wolfe waves 2/17/2017 On the GBP/USD daily chart, the triangle was formed. If quotes go beyond its upper boundary, it will increase the risks of continuation of the rally towards 1.26. In contrast, a successful test of the lower boundary of the triangle will send quotes towards 1.235. On the GBP/USD hourly chart, the signals we got from the Wolfe waves are realizing. A breakout of the resistance at 1.2516 can lead to the realization of 113% target in the "Shark" pattern. It is located near the 1.26 mark. There is a 1-4 wave near this target which indicates the presence of the convergence zone and creates prerequisites for the rebound. Recommendation: SELL 1,26 SL 1,2655 TP 1,246. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12523

CAD/CHF reversed from resistance zone 2/16/2016 CAD/CHF reversed from resistance zone Next sell target - 0.7600 CAD/CHF continues to fall after the recent sharp downward reversal from the powerful resistance zone lying between the key resistance level 0.7720 (which stopped the previous waves (2), (ii) and 2, as can be seen from the daily CAD/CHF charts below) and the upper daily Bollinger Band. If the price closes today near the current levels it will form the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Double Doji Evening Star. CAD/CHF is expected to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 0.7600. Sell stop-loss can be placed above the aforementioned resistance level 0.7720. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12521

EUR/CAD reversed from strong support level 1.3830 2/16/2017 EUR/CAD reversed from strong support level 1.3830 Next buy target – 1.4270 EUR/CAD continues to rise following the earlier upward reversal from the strong support level 1.3830 (which reversed the previous impulse wave (i) with the weekly Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star, as can be seen from the weekly EUR/CAD chart below). The upward reversal from this support level stopped the earlier minor impulse wave (iii) from last December. Given the oversold reading on the weekly Stochastic indicator - EUR/CAD is expected to rise to the next buy target at the resistance level 1.4270 (which reversed the pair in January). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12520

EUR/USD: wave [ii] on the way 2/16/2017 Wave has been formed, so the price is rising. Previously wave 2 was ended like a zigzag. Therefore, bulls are likely going to deliver wave [ii] in the short term. The main intraday target is 8/8 MM Level. As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a bearish impulse in wave . Meanwhile, wave [ii] is probably taking form of a zigzag. In this case, wave (a) is likely going to end during the day, so there’s an opportunity to have wave ( soon. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12518

USD/JPY: bears going to test "Window" 2/16/2017 We’ve got a “Tweezers” and an “Engulfing” on the upper “Window”. At the same time, there’s an opportunity to have a local correction towards a resistance on the 89 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bearish price movement. The 89 Moving Average is acting as a support, so we’ve got a bearish “Three Methods” pattern here. Therefore, the pair is likely going to get a support on the nearest “Window” during the day. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12516

EUR/USD: "Window" acting as a resistance 2/16/2017 We’ve got an “Engulfing” and a “Three White Soldiers”. Moreover, there’s a “Window”, which is acting as a resistance. Therefore, the price is likely going to test the next “Window” in the short term. If a pullback from this levels happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline. There’s a “Hanging Man” on the 89 Moving Average, but this pattern has a weak confirmation. So, the pair is likely going to get a support on the 55 Moving Average during the day. If we see a pullback from this line, bulls will probably try to test the 144 Moving Average. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12515

Trading strategy with fractals 2/16/2017 Fractals are the technical tools helping to predict a reversal of the dominant trend. A fractal pattern consists of 5 consecutive bars positioned in the predefined order. There are two types of fractals. Bearish fractal A reversal from an uptrend to a downtrend occurs when the highest bar is located in the middle of the pattern and the two bars with lower highs on each side. Bullish fractal A reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend occurs when the lowest bar is positioned in the middle of the pattern with the two higher lows on each side. Fractals are known as breakout points since they highlight the points at which prices fail to hold and reverse. Fractals are very useful trading tools that help to identify powerful resistance and support levels. Also, they are very handy in the lineation of trends. There is a countless number of trading strategies using fractals for confirmation of the trend, for identification of the trend reversals. In this article, we decided to present one of the most effective trading strategies in which fractals are used to pinpoint profitable entries. “Key ingredients” Timeframe – hourly charts are preferable, but you can also use this strategy on the daily, weekly, 4H timeframes. Currency pairs – no specific recommendations; the strategy suits to all currency crosses. Trading session – any Trading tools: 50 exponential moving average (thereafter 50 EMA) Bill Williams Fractal indicator “Rules of the game” For short trades: prices are moving below the 50 EMA; a bearish fractal should be formed near the 50 EMA line; look for a formation of the bearish candlestick pattern or any other signal to confirm the trade before going short at the close of the fifth bar; if the trade is confirmed, you are allowed to open short position at the close of the fifth bar and place stop loss 33 pips above the middle candlestick (the highest point of the fractal pattern). For long trades: prices are moving above the 50 EMA; a bullish fractal should be formed in the vicinity of the 50 EMA line; use a bullish candlestick pattern for confirmation of your trade before going long; if the trade is confirmed, you are allowed to open long position and place stop loss 3 pips below the fractal candlestick (the lowest point in the fractal pattern). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12500