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USD/JPY: lower "Window" going to act as a support 2/22/2017 There’s a “Hanging Man”, which has been confirmed enough. So, the pair is likely going to test the lower “Window”, which could be a departure point for an upward correction. The last “Shooting Star” led to the current decline. Considering that there isn’t any reversal pattern, the market is likely going to continue falling down in the short term. However, if a pullback from the lower “Window” happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bullish correction. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12596

EUR/USD: bulls going to deliver a correction 2/22/2017 We’ve got a bearish “Three Methods”, which led to the current decline. Also, there isn’t any reversal pattern so far. Therefore, the market is likely going to continue falling down towards the nearest support. There’re an “Inverted Hammer” and a “Hammer”, but both patterns haven’t been confirmed yet. In this case, bears are likely going to continue pushing the price even lower during the day. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12595

EUR/USD forecasts from banks 2/22/2017 Barclays: political risk are market triggers, indeed, for the present time, but insufficient for throwing the euro off its stride. Analysts expect EUR/USD to remain range-bound towards the end of the week. They note the economic data calendar doesn’t exhibit any evident catalyst for the present time. The European political calendar will be a “chef de pupitre” this week. Strategists bet on the further EUR depreciation, but according to them, it will be restrained, not truly expansive, as option-market pricing of French presidential election risks is a bit excessive. They assume that despite a relative shift in the polls from François Fillon to Emmanuel Macron and rumor about a possible alliance of the left between Beno?t Hamon and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Macron And François Fillon, in the end, will be likely winners in the second round by a wide margin over anti-European Marine Le Pen. TD analysts stay short for next two months with a target to retest the level of 1.0340 TD analysts note that the euro stopped responding to economic data releases (yesterday’s irresponsiveness of the euro to the upbeat French and German manufacturing figures proves this statement) as market participants are predominantly preoccupied with the looming presidential elections in France. Marin Le Pen continues to inch higher in the polls making investors uneasy for a while. The recent news of the planning political alliance on the left clouds the outlook for the election. The rub here is that Marine Le Pen – group left candidates in the second round of the election could reduce turnout, helping Marine to win (this scenario be bearish for EUR/USD). Analysts prefer to tactically remain short EUR against its major counterparts over the next two months and look for a retest of the recent lows near 1.0340. UOB: technical signal A move below 1.0520 was a signal of the EUR weakness. UOB analysts expect the prices to move lower towards the mid-January low of 1.0450/55, but any decline will be slow and grinding. Overall, only a move above 1.0620 would indicate that the euro managed to shrug off the persistent downward pressure. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12594

Key option levels for Wednesday, February 22nd 2/22/2017 EUR/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 58 554 ? + 10 386 ? Closest resistance levels 1.0534; 1.0561; 1.0592; 1.0638; 1.0672 Closest support levels 1.0495(Critical); 1.0464; 1.0427; 1.0386 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long EUR/USD above 1.0534, with target points at 1.0561 and 1.0592 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.0495 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.0464 and 1.0427 USD/JPY Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Neutral Changes in the open interest + 216 ? + 445 ? Closest resistance levels 113.52; 113.73/86; 114.08; 114.36 Closest support levels 113.24; 113.06; 112.79; 112.45 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short USD/JPY below 113.24, with target points at 113.06 and 112.79 Alternative scenario Moving above 113.52 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 113.73/86 and 114.08 USD/CAD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Bullish Changes in the open interest + 84 ? - 253 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3156; 1.3179; 1.3219; 1.3275 Closest support levels 1.3125; 1.3108; 1.3079; 1.3031 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3156, with the target points at 1.3179 and 1.3219 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3125 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3108 and 1.3079 More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12593

GBP/USD: bears going to test support 2/22/2017 There’s a local “V-Bottom”, so we’ve got a new local high. Considering a resistance at 1.2509, the market is likely going to get a support on the 89 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an option to have another bullish price movement towards a resistance at 1.2548 – 1.2581. All Moving Averages have been broken, so bulls faced a resistance at 1.2509, which led to the current consolidation. Therefore, bears are likely going to test a support at 1.2482 – 1.2465 during the day. If a pullback from this area happens, we should keep an eye on a resistance at 1.2523 – 1.2548 as a possible bullish target. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12592

EUR/USD: bearish "Pennant" 2/22/2017 Bears faced a support at 1.0521, so the price is consolidating. Therefore, the next target is a support at 1.0498 – 1.0478. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward correction. We’ve got a “Pennant”, so bears are likely going to reach the nearest support at 1.0506 – 1.0498 during the day. However, if a pullback from these levels happens, bulls will probably try to test a resistance at 1.0543 – 1.0552. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12591

USD/JPY: under Cloud’s resistance 2/22/2017 Technical levels: support – 112.70, 112.20; resistance – 113.60. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 113.40; SL — 113.60; TP1 — 112.70; TP2 — 112.20. Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud; a new irregular golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are under the Cloud in negative area. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12589

EUR/USD: euro going to main support 2/22/2017 Technical levels: support – 1.0510; resistance – 1.0600. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.0510; SL — 1.0490; TP1 — 1.0670; TP2 – 1.0600. Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud; a new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and the falling lines; the prices are near the main support. More: [urlhttps://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12588]https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12588[/url]

Morning brief for February 22 2/22/2017 EUR/USD dropped to 1.0520 overnight as the upbeat Euro PMI lost its luster amid investors’ jitters over upcoming French Presidential elections. Market participants now ascribe anti-EU Marin Le Pen a 34.2% chance of winning, while the survey by Elabe for L’Express magazine showed that Le Pen’s number 1 counterpart had shed 5 points to 18.5 and Fillon had gained additional 3 points in the presidential race. The European manufacturing data was very strong; the PMI of major Eurozone economies surged to its highest level since 2011 at 56. The FOMC meeting minutes will be the market focus in the American session. The document might be pored over for hints on the potential monetary policy changes at the upcoming meetings. USD/JPY slumped to 113.32 overnight after climbing to a 5-day high of 113.80 overnight. The Fed’s President of Cleaveland Loretta Mester was a spoiler as she said that no one on Fed is thinking of precipitately raising rates. Aussie enjoyed significant upsurge overnight due to climbing iron ore and steel prices. AUD/USD almost reached 0.7700. Then, the Aussie started losing its strength after the RBA Governor Philip Lowe highlighted some of the challenges Australian will have to deal with in the future. USD/CAD slipped some points in the Asian session having slid to 1.3130. The pair failed to consolidate at 1.3145 level (near 200-day MA) and to regain its bullish momentum. There will be Canadian retail sales data later today at 15:30 on which traders should focus on. Oil price extended their gains in the Asian session having risen to $56.90 (Brent oil futures) after OPEC expressed its intention to achieve full compliance with supply cuts and Russia said that will abide by the cuts. GBP/USD rose above 1.2500 having tested the resistance located near 100-H4 MA. A bullish fractal was formed on the H4 chart promising some further gains for the pound in the short-term. Upbeat UK GDP data may assist the sterling in its struggling to rise higher. Betting markets expect growth of 0.6% q/q and 2/2% y/y. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12587

Gold stumbled across the ledge 2/22/2017 On the daily chart of gold, there is a formation of the "Spike and ledge" pattern on the base of 1-2-3.A breakout of the upper boundary of the consolidation range of $1220-1244 per ounce will increase the risk of continuation of the rally in the direction of the upper boundary of the descending trading channel. In contrast, a successful test of the support will create prerequisites for the implementation pattern of the "Shark" pattern. On the hourly chart of gold, there is a continuation of the expanding wedge pattern. Return of quotes to the 23.6% level formed from the waves 4-5 will be a signal for the opening of short positions. In contrast, the breakout of the resistance at $1242 per ounce (88.6% from the waves 4-5) can lead to the recovery of the uptrend. Recommendations: SELL $1230 SL $1240 TP $1290, BUY $1242 SL $1232 TP $1272. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12586

EUR/USD: bears may continue moving southwards 2/22/2017 On the EUR/USD daily chart, the downward trading channel was formed. A breakout of the support at 1.0525 will lead to the continuation of the "bearish" trend towards the target 88.6% in the "Shark" pattern (1.038). Nearest resistance levels should be sought near 1,057 and 1,064 marks. On the EUR/USD hourly chart, sellers want to activate the AB = CD pattern. To continue their southward movement towards the targets of the AB=CD pattern (target 200% (1.037), they will have to test the support at 1.0525. Recommendation: keep the short formed earlier (SELL 1,065 SL 1,0705 TP 1,0445), SELL 1,0525 SL 1,068 TP 1,038). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12585

EUR/USD falling inside minor impulse wave (iii) 2/21/2017 EUR/USD falling inside minor impulse wave (iii) Next sell target - 1.0450 EUR/USD continues to fall inside the active minor impulse wave (iii) – which started earlier from the resistance level 1.0670 (which reversed the price with the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Dark Cloud Cover earlier this month). The active impulse wave (iii) belongs to wave (iv) from the start of February. EUR/USD is currently approaching the support level 1.0520 (which reversed the earlier minor impulse wave i). If the pair breaks below this support level - EUR/USD can then be expected to fall further to the next sell target at the next powerful level 1.0450 (which reversed the pair with the daily Hammer in January). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12580

USD/JPY reversed from support zone 2/21/2017 USD/JPY reversed from support zone Next buy target – 115.00 USD/JPY recently reversed up from the support zone located between the support level 112.00 (which stopped previous wave 2), former resistance trendline of the recently broken Falling Wedge chart pattern (acting as support now after it was broken) and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the earlier sharp upward impulse from November. The upward reversal from the aforementioned support zone started the active impulse wave 3. USD/JPY is expected to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 115.00 (which reversed the earlier impulse wave (i) with the daily Evening Star earlier this month). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12579

USD/JPY: bulls going to continue pushing the price higher 2/21/2017 There’s an “Inverted Hammer”, which has been confirmed. Also, we’ve got a bullish “Three Methods”, so the price is likely going to continue rising until any bearish pattern arrives. The lower “Window” acted as a support, so we’ve got a bullish “Harami”, which has been confirmed. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance level during the day. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12578

EUR/USD: bullish correction is coming 2/21/2017 The last “Three Methods” pattern led to the current decline. Considering that there isn’t any reversal pattern so far, the market is likely going to test the nearest support, which could a departure point for a local bullish correction. The price has found a lodgement under the “Window”. So, bears are likely going to test the next support. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have an intraday correction. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12577

USD/JPY: trade signal from Danske Bank 2/21/2017 Danske Bank analysts expect the yen to depreciate on the rising bond yields and surging oil prices. As soon as the US tax policies are announced the US dollar will move higher. A short yen positioning is very stretched, it will unfold gradually. The DB’s strategists target USD/JPY at 116 in one month and 118 in 3 months. In the longer term, the cross is expected to stabilize at 118 (in 6 months), because the massive portfolio outflows out of Japan will not allow the yen to depreciate further. Source: eFXnews™ Technical confirmation On the USD/JPY daily chart, there is an example of the Elliott wave principle in motion. At the present time, the prices are trading at the beginning of the 5th after corrective movement towards 111.50 (near the 38.2 Fibo retracement level from June 24 low). We anticipate a further upsurge towards 114.05 (23.6 Fibo retracement level), 114.95 (50-day MA) levels. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12575

Nassim Nicholas Taleb: brainy trader 2/21/2017 In this article, we won’t be telling you about slumdog millionaires, whiz kids, smooth/sharp operators, market speculators or luckies. Instead, we’ve decided to inspire you with a life story of one of the keenest minds of our time. We are glad to present you – Nassim Nicholas Taleb – a man of impressive erudition and impeccable logic, widely known essayist, polyglot, distinguished professor of risk engineering and, last but not least, successful trader. The list of accomplishments of this honored man can be continued endlessly, but we are well aware of the editorial limits. So, we promise to be brief to the extent it is possible. First impression Psychologists believe that people need just one-tenth of a second to form a mental image of the person they encounter/see for the very first time. Nassim Taleb creates the impression of a very witty and intelligent person, a bit strict and reserved in his all-time favorite jackets and Steve Jobs turtleneck, but still well disposed to people around him. Some call him a bit grumpy, sarcastic, gloomy and utterly judgmental. But we believe that all this goes from the pages of his books, but not from Taleb’s public engagements. Or, probably, his image was forged by vengeful journalists. Early life and family background Nassim Taleb was born and brought up in Lebanon. His parents were affluent and influential Greek Orthodox believers with French citizenship. His grandfather and great-grandfather were deputy prime ministers, and his great-great-great-great grandfather was the governor of Ottoman Mount Lebanon. Taleb’s prominent family has known a reduction of its influence and wealth in the course of the Lebanese Civil War started in 1975. During the war, little Nassim had to study in the basement of his family’s home. Then, he received his bachelor and master of science degree from the University of Paris. In addition, he holds an MBA from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, and a PhD in Management Science from the University of Paris (Dauphine). His overwhelming thirst for knowledge has no limits. He has a good command of various languages: a literary fluency in English, French, and classical Arabic; a conversational fluency in Italian and Spanish; can read Greek, Latin, Aramaic, and ancient Hebrew, the Canaanite script. Career accomplishments Nassim Taleb worked as a practitioner of mathematical finance, a hedge fund manager, a derivative trader. Currently, he dedicates his time to writing and works as a top advisor at Universa Investments. He prefers calling himself an epistemologist of randomness, a thinker, rather than a businessman or successful trader. He said that he used trading for the attainment of the independence and freedom from authorities, rather than for some selfish motives. Nassim Taleb has amasses a wealth of experience trading in the richest financial establishments of the world. He was especially successful after the financial crash of 1987, during the Nasdaq dive in 2000 and the global financial crisis of the second millennium. A great many of these events has been predicted by Taleb well prior to their occurrence. Being a statistician, he managed to identify existent mismatches between statistical distributions used in finance and reality. According to him, the more he studies statistics, the more he becomes convinced that the global financial system is a keg of dynamite that can blow anytime. Writing career His international fame Nassim Taleb obtained due to his writings. He is the author of the 4-volume INCERTO a philosophical and practical essay on uncertainty, probability, human error, full of personal autobiographical stories, historical, philosophical and academic discussions, parables (Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and The Bed of Procrustes). We will probably cover Taleb’s writing in much more detail in our “Book reviews” section. Meanwhile, we hope that we managed to offer you a flash of inspiration having written about such prominent person as Nassim Nicholas Taleb. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12573

EUR/USD: wave © of [ii] is about to start 2/21/2017 There’s a bearish impulse in wave . Also, we’ve got wave [ii], which is likely going to be continued, so we could have a new local high soon. However, bears will probably try to deliver wave [iii] afterwards. As we can see on the one-hour chart, a zigzag in wave ( is about to end. Therefore, if a pullback from 5/8 MM Level happens, the market is likely going to form wave © of [ii]. The main intraday target is 7/8 MM Level. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12572

GBP/USD: support waiting for bears 2/21/2017 The price is still consolidating along the Moving Averages. In this case, the pair is likely going to test the nearest resistance at 1.2509 in the short term. Meanwhile, there’s also an opportunity to have a decline towards a support at 1.2411 – 1.2386 later on. There’s a consolidation, which is taking place under the local downtrend. So, bulls are likely going to test a resistance at 1.2486 – 1.2509 during the day. Considering a possible pullback from these levels, we should keep an eye on the next support at 1.2432 – 1.2386 as a possible intraday target. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12570

EUR/USD: bears ready to move on 2/21/2017 The price faced a support at 1.0578, so the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance at 1.0619 in the short term. However, if a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline towards a support at 1.0552 – 1.0506. We’ve got a local “V-Bottom”, which pushed the price a little bit higher. Therefore, bulls are likely going to achieve the closest resistance at 1.0607 – 1.0619. At the same time, if we see a pullback from this area, bears will probably try to test a support at 1.0560 – 1.0552 afterwards. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12569

AUD/USD: aussie returned to the Cloud again 2/21/2017 Technical levels: support – 0.7660/70; resistance – 0.7720. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 0.7680; SL — 0.7650; TP1 — 0.7780; TP2 — 0.7840. 2. Sell — 0.7640; SL — 0.7660; TP1 — 0.7600; TP2 — 0.7560. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but falling Senkou Span A; a new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are on the support of the Cloud. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12568

GBP/USD: pound can’t find a way 2/21/2017 Technical levels: support – 1.2420, 1.2350; resistance – 1.2480/90, 1.2560. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.2460; SL — 1.2440; TP1 — 1.2560; TP2 — 1.2590. 2. Sell — 1.2440; SL — 1.2460; TP1 — 1.2350; TP2 — 1.2310. Reason: irregular bearish Ichimoku Cloud, falling Senkou Span A; a new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are under the Cloud. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12567

Morning brief for February 21 2/21/2017 With the US celebrating the President’s day, Europe was in focus in Monday’s session. This means that political news were the main market triggers. OpinionWay poll indicates that anti-establishment candidate Marin Le Pen wins in the first round of election by a wider margin than it used to be several weeks ago. The election concerns exert a downward pressure on the euro and European bonds. Greek bonds made headlines, however, after Eurozone finance ministers agreed to resume negotiations with Athens on the reforms needed to bailout Greece. The euro edged up to 1.0630 overnight but failed to consolidate in this area having fallen to 1.0580 in the Asian session. Today’s focus will be on the Manufacturing PMI of the main Eurozone economies that will be released at 10:00-11:00 am MT time. USD/JPY climbed to 113.70 not paying much heed to the upbeat Japan’s manufacturing PMI. Technically, the pair has all chances to rally further, towards the next physical hurdles located at 114.50 (23.6% Fibo retracement level from the November 9 low) and at 114.95 (near 50-day MA). Cable popped up to around 1.3140 having broken the resistance at 1.3145 (200-day MA). USD/CAD may continue its rally towards 1.3180 being supported by the weakening oil prices. The latter ones declined as the market took into account rising US drilling and US stockpile built. NZD/USD was a loser from 0.7185 to 0.7150. The pair may slide lower, if we get a miss on the New Zealand GDT Price Index, and if the Fed Harker, the most hawkish voter on the FOMC, mentions the probability of three hikes this year. Kiwi may gain some strength before Mr. Harker’s speech, if the Fed Kashkari, a well-known dove, set a course for holding rates steady in March. Aussie slipped some point having fallen to 0.7670 in the course of the Asian session. It may extend its losses towards the support at 0.7655 (the upper border of Ichimoku cloud on the H4 timeframe) as the greenback continues accumulating speed. In the Tokyo morning, we got the RBA monetary policy minutes showing that the board members seem positive on near-term prospects for global economy and resilience of the Chinese growth. The RBA’s senior officials also noted that an appreciating AUD supported by the surging commodity prices complicates the country’s economic transition. In general, the board members judged that the present interest rates are consistent with Australian economic growth and the bank’s inflation target. GBP/USD edged back towards 1.2450 on the session. It continues moving sideways in the narrow band of 1.2410 – 1.2480 levels and waiting for the formal Brexit to start. Today’s focus will be on the UK Inflation Report hearings. Relatively stable medium-term inflation expectations suggest that price expectations are still firmly anchored. This will allow the BoE to maintain its present monetary policy stance and not to raise rates in the near term. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12566

[]NZD/USD: kiwi waived the white flag[/b] 2/21/2017 On the NZD/USD daily chart, another attempt of "bull" to consolidate above the lower limit of the previous long-term upward trading channel is almost failed. A breakout of the support at 0.7135 can lead to the continuation of the downward movement towards 0.7 or lower. To recoup earlier losses the New Zealand dollar should return tp resistance at 0.7235, and test it successfully On the NZD/USD hourly chart, a support successful test of the support at 0.7135 will activate the AB = CD pattern with Target at 0.702. It is located near the lower boundary of the descending trading channel. Recommendation: SELL 0,7135 SL 0,719 TP 0,702. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12565

USD/JPY: bulls are drawing second shoulder 2/21/2017 On the USD/JPY daily chart, "Head and shoulders" inverted pattern is almost formed. If the "bulls" manage to push quotes above the neckline and break the resistance at 114.6, it may lead to the restoration of the uptrend and implementation of the target 88.6% in the "Shark" inverted pattern.It is located near the 118 level. On the USD/JPY hourly chart, after three consecutive attempts bears failed to return to the boundaries of the descending trading channel. It shows the weakness of sellers and creates the prerequisites for the restoration of "bullish" trend. Recommendations: BUY 113,2 SL 112,65 TP1 115,1 TP2 117,1, BUY 114,3 SL 113,75 TP1 115,9 TP2 117,1. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12564