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Trade signals from BofA Merrill 3/1/2017 Analysts from BofA Merrill suggest you going short on EUR/AUD as there is a combination of three bearish signals on the weekly technical chart: a bearish crossover of the moving averages, a breakdown of the long-term uptrend, and a broad triangle top pattern. The bank’s target equates to spot reaching 1.3450 level. The nearest supports are located at 1.3490, 1.3450. There might be an oversold recovery. So, in the longer term, you should consider selling, especially if prices reach the 1.4000 – 1.4100 resistance area. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12690

USD/JPY: correction is coming 3/1/2017 There’s a bullish “Engulfing”, which has been confirmed. Considering that there isn’t any reversal pattern, the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance. If a pullback from this level happens, bears will probably try to test the 55 Moving Average. The nearest “Window” acted as a support, so the price is likely going to reach the upper side of the closest resistance area. If any bearish pattern arrives later on, there’s be an opportunity to have another test of the “Window”. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12689

EUR/USD: bears broke "Window" 3/1/2017 The 55 & 89 Moving Averages acted as a resistance, so we’ve got an “Engulfing”, a “High Wave” and an “Inverted Hammer”, which all have been confirmed. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance, which could be a departure point for a local bullish correction. The price broke the local “Window”. Also, there’s a possible “Three Methods” pattern, so we could have a new local low during the day. However, bulls are likely going to test the broken “Window” afterwards. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12688

Review on Nassim Taleb's book 3/1/2017 As the old saying goes: “A promise is a promise”. In our article about Nassim Nicolas Taleb, we promised to cover his writings in our “Book review” section. So, let it be the day of our reckoning. The Black Swan is about the crucial impact of highly improbable events (black swans) and human’s tendency to find simplistic explanations for the occurrence of these events. Taleb believes that people are limited in their thinking; they make their assumptions based on what they see or know. According to him, “nerdy people” (Taleb’s term for forecasters) can only work within the parameters of the Gaussian bell curve, sigma, ordinary randomness which are all inadequate for prediction of great deviations and thus ignore the occurrence of “black swans.” Having only these analytical tools at hand, they tend to see bell curves everywhere downplaying the importance of the exogenous shocks, noises (black swans). Another cohort of people strongly believes in the predictive powers of the nerdies and readily pay them lots of money for their fallacious predictions. It’s a bit unfair, will you agree? Shouldn’t we abuse these charlatans and swindlers left and right draining our pockets? According to Mr. Taleb, we should. Here is the recipe for the success of his book. People like reading someone criticizing scholars and academics, calling market analysts and mass media idiots and morons, deflating artsy-fartsy egos. All these things can be found in Mr. Taleb’s book. I won’t lie to you, I liked this book for the author’s style, his contemplations, for his beautiful metaphors and outstanding examples, references to proverbial wisdom and philosophical treatise of the brightest minds of humanity. If you like well-reasoned, constructive criticism, I am sure you will like this book too. But after you read “The Black Swan” from the title-page to colophon, a small unpleasant taste might remain. You would ask why. Because after criticism, the reader expects a new solution of the problem, a new way of dealing with a certain issue. That’s something, I didn’t get in Nassim Taleb’s writing or maybe missed somehow. If I am wrong, please, write us and open my eyes to Taleb’s veiled “holy grail” of dealing with randomness. I am curious to know. So far, Nassim Taleb managed to predict the occurrence of several black swans (the financial crash of 1987, the global financial crisis 2007 – 2008). DOWNLOAD THE BOOK More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12687

In the run-up to the BoC rate announcement 3/1/2017 To raise, or not to raise - that is the question The Bank of Canada is poised to deliver its interest rate decision at 17:00 MT time. Market participants don’t anticipate any significant changes from the BoC, neither they expect great swings/troughs from loonie, because: - Governor Stephen Poloz has recently pointed out that Canada’s economy is weaker relative to the US (a good signal for investors not to price in interest rate hikes in the nearest future). - Policy makers are still worried about trade with Canadian major partner – the US. There are still some fears that Donald Trump may impose a border adjustment tax. - Although Canadian economy has noticeably evolved in recent months (labor market in particular – recent report on the job creation was very strong; it posted a record half-year performance in just over 14 years), there are evidences that some consumers have become more cautious (a starting point for the deceleration of economic growth – drop in the consumer purchasing activities). A trade surplus Canada experienced in recent two months mainly due to surging commodity prices, not structural changes in the Canadian exports. - There are plentiful uncertainties not allowing the BoC to slash/raise interest rates. Most of them can be referred to Trump’s Presidency. - The major central banks normally set their interest rates in accordance with the Fed. So, in the countdown to the FOMC March meeting, the Bank of Canada will unlikely introduce any significant changes to its present monetary policy stance. Although the listed factors allow the BoC not to change its present easing monetary policy, we must admit that the recent macroeconomic releases are making it harder for the Bank of Canada to maintain its dovish approach. The next step from the bank’s part will probably be a rate increase, but not until 2019. The technical outlook for the USD/CAD is bullish. The pair has recently spiked to 1.3330 area (its January high) as the USD strengthened from the hawkish comments of Fed’s officials. It may extend its gains to 1.3360, 1.3390/13380 resistance lines if the BoC's statement is dovish. As the RSI line moved in the overbought area we may expect some short-term corrections towards the nearest supports at 1.3300, 1.3250/1.3215 (50-day MA). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12686

Key option levels for Wednesday, March 1st 3/1/2017 EUR/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Neutral Changes in the open interest -No Data- -No Data- Closest resistance levels 1.0562; 1.0598; 1.0616; 1.0636; 1.0667 Closest support levels 1.0531; 1.0492; 1.0447; 1.0399 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario (High risk of reversal) Long EUR/USD above 1.0562, with target points at 1.0598 and 1.0616 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.0531 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.0492 and 1.0447 USD/JPY Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Neutral Changes in the open interest -No Data- -No Data- Closest resistance levels 113.75; 114.34; 114.97; 115.62 Closest support levels 112.80; 112.51; 112.18 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 113.75, with target points at 114.34 and 114.97 Alternative scenario Moving below 112.80 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 112.51 and 112.18 USD/CAD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bullish Changes in the open interest -No Data- -No Data- Closest resistance levels 1.3317; 1.3364; 1.3434; 1.3515 Closest support levels 1.3289; 1.3259; 1.3217; 1.3151 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short USD/CAD below 1.3289, with the target points at 1.3259 and 1.3217 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3317 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.3364 and 1.3434 More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12685

GBP/USD: "Double Top" led to decline 3/1/2017 There’s a “Double Top”, which has been confirmed, so we’ve got a new low. In this case, the pair is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.2315 – 1.2277 in the short term. Meanwhile, bulls will probably try to test a resistance at 1.2386 – 1.2432 afterwards. We’ve got a confirmed “Double Top” under the 89 Moving Average. Therefore, the pair is likely going to continue falling down towards a support at 1.2315. If a pullback from this level be on the table, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bullish price movement in the direction of the closest resistance at 1.2390 – 1.2450. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12683

Morning brief for March 1 03/01/2017 President Trump’s speech was the main focus of the past session. There was a lot of food for political debates, while economists were left with empty stomachs as the US President didn’t provide them with the details of the border adjustment tax reform. In general, the main points for markets were: Trump voiced the need to provide a substantial tax relief to the middle-income swath. Also, he said that he will cut corporate tax rates. Trump plans to spend $1 trillion on the infrastructure. But there were no specifics, so the market participants were disappointed. The tailwind for the USD was the gist of the hawkish comments from the Fed’s senior officials that revived the talk over a March hike (with the probabilities of a rate increase banding at around 60-80%). The USD gained across the trading board in the course of the Asian session, so Trump’s speech lacking details on the tax reforms was a pinch for the USD, not a substantial loss. The euro slid below 1.0550 overnight. Today’s focus will be on the German preliminary CPI, manufacturing data from leading Eurozone economies, German unemployment change. GBP/USD declined to 1.2360 overnight mainly on the massive strengthening of the greenback. Keep an eye on the UK manufacturing PMI data and net lending to individuals both coming at 11:30 am MT time. The current weak undertone is still intact. The pound will likely slide further towards the support at 1.2350. Once it is broken out, GBP may extend its losses to 1.2260. Aussie was trading choppily in the Asian session. First, it moved below the support at 0.7640, then rebounded on the upbeat Australian GDP figures to 0.7700. At the current moment, the prices are moving above the 0.7660. AUD/USD may rise higher on the session towards the nearest resistance 0.7675 (the lower border of Ichimoku cloud on the H4 timeframe). A move above the 0.7700 will open the way for a further uplift towards 0.7710/0.7740. USD/CAD spiked to 1.3322 overnight. Today’s focus will on the Canadian rate statement that should be delivered at 5:00 pm MT time. Most market analysts expect the BoC to stay on hold. Oil prices jumped to $56.50 from yesterday’s low at $55.20 in the Asian session. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12682

EUR/USD: bears going to test the next support 3/1/2017 There’s a “Triple Top”, which has been confirmed, so the price came back into downward channel. So, the market is likely going to test the nearest support at 1.0520 – 1.0493 in the short term. If a pullback from this area happens afterwards, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish price movement in the direction of the next resistance at 1.0578 – 1.0588. All Moving Averages have been broken, so bears are likely going to reach a support at 1.0520 – 1.0493 in the short term. However, if we see a pullback from this area, bulls will probably try to test a resistance between the levels 1.0578 – 1.0588. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12681

GBP/USD: bears attacked again 3/1/2017 Technical levels: support – 1.2345; resistance – 1.2450, 1.2480. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.2345; SL — 1.2325; TP1 — 1.2450; TP2 — 1.2480. Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud, falling Senkou Span A; a new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are in negative area, but there is a strong support on 1.2340/45. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12680

EUR/USD: euro going to negative area 3/1/2017 Technical levels: support – 1.0560, 1.0500; resistance – 1.0590. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 1.0550/60; SL — 1.0580; TP1 — 1.0500; TP2 – 1.0460. Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but rising Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the narrow channel Tenkan-Kijun; the prices are going out from the Cloud. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12679

AUD/CAD reversed from pivotal support level 1.0070 02/28/2017 AUD/CAD reversed from pivotal support level 1.0070 Next buy target - 1.0200 AUD/CAD continues to rise after the earlier upward reversal from the pivotal support level 1.0070 (former major resistance level which stopped the previous waves B, 1 and (i), acting as support now – after it was broken by the previous sharp upward impulse (i)). The upward reversal from the support level 1.0070 continues the active impulse wave 3. AUD/CAD is expected to rise to the next buy target at the resistance level 1.0200 (target price calculated for the termination of the active minor impulse wave (iii)). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12674

USD/JPY: bearish "Tweezers" 02/28/2017 There’s a bearish “Harami”, which has been confirmed. Also, the upper “Window” acted as a resistance. Therefore, the market is likely going to continue falling down until any bullish pattern arrives. We’ve got a confirmed “Tweezers” on the “Window”, which has acted as a resistance. Considering that there isn’t any reversal pattern so far, bears are likely going to deliver a new local low during the day. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12671

Key option levels for Tuesday, February 28th 02/28/2017 EUR/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Neutral Changes in the open interest -No Data- -No Data- Closest resistance levels 1.0594; 1.0618; 1.0638; 1.0668 Closest support levels 1.0575; 1.0556; 1.0525; 1.0487 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0575, with target points at 1.0556 and 1.0525 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0594 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0618 and 1.0638 USD/JPY Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Neutral Neutral Changes in the open interest -No Data- -No Data- Closest resistance levels 112.78; 113.15; 113.46; 113.87 Closest support levels 112.32; 111.98; 111.53; 111.01 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short USD/JPY below 112.32, with the target points at 111.98 and 111.53 Alternative scenario Moving above 112.78 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 113.15 and 113.46 USD/CAD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Bullish Changes in the open interest -No Data- -No Data- Closest resistance levels 1.3205; 1.3263; 1.3339; 1.3425 Closest support levels 1.3149; 1.3104; 1.3051; 1.2982 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short USD/CAD below 1.3149, with the target points at 1.3104 and 1.3051 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3205 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.3263 and 1.3339 More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12669

EUR/USD: "Window" acted as a resistance 02/28/2017 The 34 & 55 Moving Averages are acting as a resistance. Also, we’ve got a bearish “Engulfing” and a “High Wave”, but a confirmation of both patterns is a quite weak. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the nearest support lever, which could be a departure point for another upward price movement. The upper “Window” acted as a resistance, so we’ve got an “Engulfing” pattern here. At the same time, there’s a support by the 55 Moving Average. In this case, bears are likely going to test the closest resistance. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to see another decline. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12670

GBP/USD: bulls look at the nearest resistance 02/28/2017 The price found a support at 1.2386, so we’ve got a “Double Bottom”, which has been confirmed. Therefore, the market is likely going to test an area between the 34 Moving Average and the nearest resistance at 1.2509. If a pullback from these levels happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards a support at 1.2386 – 1.2347. The price is consolidating near the Moving Averages. Also, there’s a “V-Top”, which pushed the market a little bit lower. Nevertheless, bulls are likely going to test the closest resistance at 1.2477 – 1.2506 during the day. If we see a pullback from this area, bears will have a chance to test a support at 1.2390 – 1.2382. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12667

EUR/USD: new local high is coming 02/28/2017 We’ve got a “V-Top”, which led to the last decline. However, there’s a local “V-Bottom”, so bulls are likely going to test the 89 Moving Average in the short term. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline towards a support at 1.0552 – 1.0520. Bulls faced a support on the Moving Averages, which led to form a “V-Bottom”, so the price reached a resistance at 1.0588. Therefore, the market is likely going to achieve the next resistance at 1.0629 – 1.0640 during the day. Considering a possible pullback from this area, bears will probably try to achieve a support at 1.0569 – 1.0552 later on. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12666

USD/JPY: Dollar has weakened 02/28/2017 Technical levels: support – 112.20, 111.60, 109.90; resistance – 113.00, 113.60. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 112.50; SL — 112.80; TP1 — 111.60; TP2 — 110.00. Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud; a new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are on the Senkou Span B and daily support. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12664

GBP/USD: pound supported by daily Cloud 02/28/2017 Technical levels: support – 1.2380; resistance – 1.2525. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.2440/50; SL — 1.2400; TP1 — 1.2560; TP2 — 1.2640. Reason: expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span A; an irregular dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with the rising Kijun-sen; the prices are on the support of the Cloud. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12663

USD/CHF: will the bears regain the initiative? 02/28.2017 On the daily USD/CHF chart the quotes are moving within the bullish trend channel. However, the inability of the bulls to conquer resistance at 1.0105 (50% of the wave CD of the 5-0 pattern) points at their weakness. If the pair falls below support at 1.0045, this will increase the risks of a fall to 0.9945 and 0.9860. On H1, the break of support at 1.0045 and 0.9975 will set off the "Shark" pattern. It's targets are at 88.6% (0.989) and 113% (0.9825). In order to keep moving to the north the bulls have to push USD/CHF above 1.0160. Recommendation: SELL 1,0045 SL 1,01 TP1 0,989 TP2 0,9825. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12662

EUR/USD: bulls want more 02/28/2017 On the daily EUR/USD chart, the bulls keep trying to conquer the upper border of the bullish trend channel. If they succeed, the risks of advance towards 1.0710 and 1.0820 will increase. On the other hand, decline below 1.0569 will increase the odds of the euro reaching 88.6% of the "Shark" pattern target (1.0380). On H1, the break of 1.0565 and 1.0550 will trigger the "Shark" pattern with targets at 1.0510 and 1.0475. For the pair to keep going up it should overcome resistance at 1.064. Recommendation: SELL 1.0565, SL 1.0620, TP1 1.0475, TP2 1.0380. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12660

GBP/JPY broke daily Triangle 02/27/2017 GBP/JPY broke daily Triangle Next sell targets - 138.40 and 136.50 GBP/JPY continues to fall after the earlier breakout of the support trendline of the daily Triangle chart pattern from the middle of December. The breakout of this Triangle should accelerate the active minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) of the primary downward impulse wave ? from December. GBP/JPY is expected to fall to the next sell target at the support level 138.40 (the low of the previous impulse wave 1) – the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward the next sell target at 136.50 (bottom of the earlier wave (1)). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12655

EUR/CHF reversed from powerful support level 1.0630 02/27/2017 EUR/CHF reversed from powerful support level 1.0630 Next buy targets – 1.0680 and 1.0710 EUR/CHF continues to rise strongly – following the earlier upward reversal from the powerful support level 1.0630, which has been repeatedly reversing the price from eth end of January – as can be seen from the daily EUR/CHF chart below. The upward reversal from this support level stopped the previous impulse waves (iii) and 3. EUR/CHF is expected to rise further to the next buy target at the next resistance level 1.0680 (which reversed the pair earlier this month) – the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward the next significant resistance level 1.0710 (top of the previous correction ii). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12654

EUR/USD: wedge in wave 02/27/2017 It seems like we’ve got a wedge in wave . So, if we see a pullback from 7/8 MM Level, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline. At the same time, a pullback from the wedge’s lower side happens, bulls are likely going to deliver an upward correction. As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a possible zigzag in wave (iv). So, wave c of (iv) is likely going to be continued. However, if a pullback from 4/8 MM Level happens afterwards, there’ll be a chance to have wave (v) of shortly. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12653

USD/JPY: bulls going to test "Window" 02/27/2017 We’ve got a “Harami” and an “Inverted Hammer”. So, the price is likely going to test the upper “Window” in the short term. If we see a pullback from this level, there’ll be a chance to have another decline until any bullish pattern arrives. There’s a bullish “Harami”, which has been confirmed enough. Therefore, the market is likely going to get a resistance on the 34 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, bears will probably try to deliver a new local low. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12651