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US: PMI Manufacturing falls to 57.3 in June FXStreet (Łódź) - US Markit Manufacturing PMI dropped to 57.3 in June, from 57.5 in May, according to data released today by Markit. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 01, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

United States Construction Spending (MoM) came in at 0.1%, below expectations (0.5%) in May Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 01, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

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ECB successful with its message to markets?– Rabobank FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analyst at Rabobank explained with its June rate decision, the ECB has brought its key repo rate to the lowest, practically feasible, level. Key Quotes: “To acknowledge this, its forward guidance language now reads “the key ECB interest rates will remain at present levels for an extended period of time in view of the current outlook for inflation.” Compared to the previous guidance, the possibility of a further cut has been removed”. “However, the ECB has been keen to stress that the conventional measures, which accompanied the rate cuts, imply that its message of forward guidance has been further strengthened”. “The extension of the full allotment procedure until at least end-2016 and the introduction of fixed rate TLTROs (which potentially may extend to end-2018 if banks meet certain criteria) are the ECB’s main exhibits to support this claim”. “So, has the ECB been successful in getting its message across? It would certainly appear so”. “First of all, market expectations of future interest rates have dropped markedly since May, when Draghi hinted at “action in June” and even further since the actual announcements in June”. “This is illustrated in figure 1. Secondly, the variance in future rate expectations by analysts has dropped almost to zero1, which is illustrated in figure 2 where we have used results from Reuters ECB polls since October last year. There is very little doubt among market participants that the ECB will keep its refi rate at 15bp until, at least, 2015Q4”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 28, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

USD/CAD closing out the week on the defensive - TD Securities FXStreet (Łódź) - TD Securities FX Research Team note that the USD/CAD is closing the week on the defensive, albeit in a very tight range below 1.07 and at a 5-month low, the prospect of an even deeper pullback looms a little larger over the market. Key quotes "We had noted support in the low 1.07 area as something that might give the USD a little more durable support but that prospect looks long gone now." "With little data on tap and public holidays in the US and Canada next week, the USD tone is likely to remain defensive." "We stress that fundamental variables—commodities, spreads—have not moved significantly in the CAD’s favour over the past few weeks. Rather, the USD’s push below 1.08 seems to have triggered a broader reassessment of positioning and hedging needs among investors who have been short CAD or under-hedged on their USD-denominated portfolios. That demand may run on for a little longer." "US stocks have been flashing topping signals, suggesting the risk of a correction, if only shallow, in the recent bull move. Energy prices have also shown signs of flagging this week, despite geo-political tensions remaining obvious." " On the charts, USDCAD remains well-over extended but there is no sign of a turn in the trend. Short-term signals suggest a modest bid tone through the late European morning might extend above 1.0695 to the low 1.07s but we still spot resistance in the 1.0725/30 range. Overall, risks remain geared to a drop back to 1.0600/50." "A short, sharp shift away from risk would undercut the CAD rally to some extent at least, we think, even if the CAD is not—currently—too highly correlated with stocks." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 27, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Weakening of Eurozone economic sentiment in June is no reason to panic - ING FXStreet (Łódź) - Martin van Vliet from ING suggests that today's below consensus European Commission business and consumer survey numbers add to concerns over a recovery slowdown in the area. Key quotes "The fall in the overall economic sentiment index (ESI), from 102.6 to 102.0 confounded the consensus forecast of a rise to 103.0 and fully reversed the 0.6 point increase in May. However, the index remains well above its long-term average (100) and is still at a level consistent with quarterly gains in GDP of 0.3%/0.4%." "The decline in overall sentiment in June was led by a drop in the export-sensitive industrial sector. Confidence in the services and retail trade sector actually improved, although the drop in consumer confidence raises questions over the durability of this further improvement." "The country breakdown, meanwhile, revealed that the decline in sentiment was fairly broad-based, with Spain, the Netherlands and especially Greece notable exceptions (the ESI in Greece rose above its long term average for the first time since August 2008)." "All in all, the weakening of Eurozone economic sentiment in June is no reason to panic. Business and consumer confidence remain at levels consistent with ongoing economic recovery." "But it further vindicates the ECB’s recent decision to implement further policy easing. The Eurozone economy simply needs stimulus to sustain this recovery and avert a Japan deflation scenario." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 27, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Ireland Retail Sales (MoM) climbed from previous -0.9% to 0.9% in May Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 27, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Austria Purchasing Manager Index declined to 50.4 in June from previous 50.9 Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 27, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

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USD/CAD feeling the pressure onto 1.07 handle - TD Securities FXStreet (Guatemala) - Shaun Osbourne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities explains USD/CAD remains under pressure, with the leak lower through stops in the low 1.07 area overnight putting more pressure on the psychological support zone around the figure. Key Quotes "There may still be some barrier-related interest to buy USD’s ahead of the 1.07 line but we have to concede that the market’s failure to hold medium-term retracement support in the low 1.07 area so far this week leaves the door open to more softness in the short-run as investors continue to unwind short CAD positions." "There has been no additional news to drive the CAD higher overnight and we view the rebound as largely position-related in the wake of last week’s stronger than expected Canadian CPI and retail sales data. We view the move as something of an over-reaction as there is little risk of the BoC becoming seriously worried about inflation any time soon." "Given the drop in US yields this week, we would highlight that US-Canada spreads have not moved materially against the USD; in fact, in the belly of the curve, spreads remain at quite USD-supportive levels. And our CAD FV regression model which utilizes Canadian terms of trade and US-Canada 5-year bond spreads as inputs still estimates a USDCAD equilibrium rate of around 1.10. Spot is nearly three standard deviations away from this point at the moment." "Regardless, it is pointless trying to fight the trend in the market at the moment and the sell-off in funds has a lot of technical momentum behind it at the moment so we are unwilling to fight the trend. Loss of support in the 1.07 area through the close of the week will open up the downside a little more at least for a push to the 1.0600/50 range. Short-term charts suggest that there might be something of a slightly better bid tone for funds developing as our session gets under way but USD gains will have to extend through 1.0725/30 for the USD to have a chance at pushing a bit more materially higher." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 26, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

EUR/USD rebounds and rises back above 1.3600 FXStreet (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD rose back above 1.3600 in the last hour and recovers after falling earlier to 1.3574, the lowest price since Monday. Despite the recent recovery the EUR/USD is still down for the day, as it trades at 1.3609, 0.13% below today’s opening price. Recent moves in the EUR/USD, surging from 1.3583 to 1.3618, were accompanied by a decline of the US dollar across the board. But on a wider perspective price action in the pair remains limited. EUR/USD supported by a weak USD According to the Global Markets Research Team, from the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ, the euro is likely to weaken but only modestly against the US dollar in the week ahead. “We do not expect EUR/USD to break below pivotal technical support at around the 1.3500-level. The US dollar is likely to derive support in the week ahead from further evidence that the US economic recovery is strengthening in Q2”. Analysts expect another solid Non-farm payrolls report in eight days but warned that the Fed’s dovish policy stance will likely “remain a dampener on potential upside for US yields and the US dollar in the near-term”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 26, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

United States Kansas Fed manufacturing activity declined to 2 in June from previous 14 Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 26, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

GBP/USD holding above the 1.7000 level - FXStreet FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik observes that the pound rose to test 1.7040 against the dollar on Thursday, with little behind the movement but buying interest. Key quotes "The pair however stalled around the strong static resistance level and retraces some with US opening, holding anyway above the 1.7000 figure." "The hourly chart shows indicators turning lower above their midlines while price holds above a bullish 20 SMA around the mentioned figure." "In the 4 hours chart indicators hover around their midlines while price stands above a bearish 20 SMA, a picture that lacks upward strength: an advance beyond 1.7061 this year high is what it takes to confirm further gains, eyeing then the 1.7100 price zone." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 26, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Fed's Bullard expects US inflation to move above 2% in 2015 FXStreet (Łódź) - St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Thursday that he believed US inflation was currently "turning around" and that next year it would most probably exceed the 2% target level, prompting a discussion on interest rates at the Federal Reserve. Bullard expressed satisfaction with the improvements on the US labor market, suggesting that they had accelerated since the introduction of QE3. He also said that the Q1 GDP reading on Wednesday which revealed a 2.9% drop, was an "aberration." The Fed head assured that he "doesn't see a bubble anywhere in the economy," but that the central bank would carefully monitor the developments on the US housing market. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 26, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

BoE's Carney: Immediate action will be taken is imminent risks emerge FXStreet (Łódź) - Mark Carney assures that the central bank's actions on housing are "graduate and proportionate" and that they don't affect the central outlook for the economy. • Housing market proposals today will have no impact on current housing activity, but will "bite" if there's a sustained rise in house prices. • There's no need to divert monetary policy to address a sector-specific risk in the UK housing market. • Households will be able to get mortgages if they can afford them. • New measures on mortgages will prevent responsible lending today from turning into reckless lending tomorrow. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 26, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

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US Q1 GDP reading downgraded by much more than expected - ING FXStreet (Łódź) - Following the third release of US GDP Q1 data, which revealed a revision of the annualized figure from -1% to -2.9%, James Knightley from ING points out that this leaves US annual growth at just 1.5% year-over-year. Key quotes "The consensus expectation was for a -1.8% reading. The damage was largely done through the private consumption component, which is now reported as rising just 1% versus 3.1% previously." "Gross private investment remained an 11.7% contraction while government consumption was left at -0.8%. However, exports were revised down and imports revised up meaning that the contribution from net trade is to subtract 1.5% from GDP growth rather than 0.95% as previously announced." "Nonetheless, reaction should be fairly muted given widespread expectations of a sharp bounceback in 2Q14 and the fact that the weather had such a damaging impact on 1Q activity." "Indeed, we suspect that we could see GDP rise by more than 5% annualised in 2Q. High frequency numbers for the quarter have looked good while inventories should also make a significantly positive contribution after having been run down sharply." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 25, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

ECB's Linde: Asset purchases considered as an option FXStreet (Łódź) - Bank of Spain head and ECB Governing Council member Luis María Linde said on Wednesday at an event in Valencia that the MPC had been mulling over the possibility of resorting to asset purchases, but that it was a complicated issue, as Eurozone financial markets remain fragmented. "The ECB has lots of options but none of them are good," Jamie Coleman comments on FXBeat. "It would like to buy asset-backed securities to help revive bank lending but there is no deep market for European ABS. It could buy EZ government bonds but would face legal challenges as well as liquidity problems in some of the smaller euro zone member markets." Furthermore, Linde said that the Spanish economy was on a steady path to recovery and that the Spanish central bank could upgrade its GDP forecast in July. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 25, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

India M3 Money Supply declined to 13.1% from previous 13.2% Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 25, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Session Recap: Uneventful session ahead of US data FXStreet (Córdoba) - Majors are back to square one heading into the American opening as investors gear up for a series of US indicators, including Q1 GDP revision, durable goods orders and a preliminary gauge of services PMI. The EUR/USD failed to sustain gains and pulled back to the 1.3605 area, while the GBP/USD managed to stabilize a tad lower around 1.6970 after dovish comments from Carney Tuesday. The USD/JPY and the AUD/USD are nearly unchanged on the day. No first-tier data was released during the European session, leaving stocks under pressure following Wall Street sell-off yesterday. The Europe Stoxx 600 was down 0.69% while US futures point to a flat opening. US durable goods for May (consensus 0.0%) and the third print of GDP (consensus -1.7%) are the highlights of the New York session. Main Headlines in Europe: Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey above forecasts (8.5) in July: Actual (8.9) US durable goods and GDP data the highlight of the day - TD Securities Italy Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) up to 0.4% in April from previous -0.2% What’s the sentiment about the EUR/USD today? – Commerzbank and Danske Bank Merkel stresses Eurozone crisis not over yet European stocks fall for a fourth session United Kingdom CBI Distributive Trades Survey - Realized (MoM) below expectations (24) in June: Actual (4) OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 25, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

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USD/JPY up to fresh highs after US data FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/JPY rose to fresh daily highs after data showed US consumer confidence surged to its highest in more than 4 years while new home sales rose more than expected. US consumer confidence was up 3 points to 85.2 in June, well above expectations of 83.5. Meanwhile, May housing starts grew 18.6% to 504K, above 440K forecast. On the other hand, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index dropped to 3 versus 6 expected in June, but did little to temper the USD. The USD/JPY jumped to a daily high of 102.13 from below 102.00 before the data. At time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at 102.05, recording a 0.15% gain on the day, having recovered from a low of 101.80 scored during the Asian session. USD/JPY technical levels In terms of technical levels, the pair could find immediate resistances at 102.20 (100-day SMA), 102.32 (Jun 18 high) and 102.56 (Jun 10 high). On the other hand, supports are seen at 101.73 (Jun 19 low), 101.60 (200-day SMA) and 101.42 (May 29 low). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 24, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

GBP/USD stabilizes after pullback FXStreet (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD is taking a breather just above daily lows, after BoE Governor dovish comments sent the pair to 6-day lows. Speaking before the Treasury Select Committee Governor Mark Carney repeatedly said the exact timing of the first rate move would be "data driven". Carney also said the timing of a rate move is less relevant than the pace of rate increase. "The path of interest rates is likely to be limited and gradual," he said. The GBP/USD broke below 1.7000 and slid toward a low of 1.6973 before stabilizing in a range. At time of writing, the Cable is trading at 1.6985, down 0.23% on the day, after the latest recovery attempt was capped by 1.7005. GBP/USD technical levels As for technical levels, the GBP/USD could find next supports at 1.6968 (10-day SMA), 1.6920 (Jun 18 low) and 1.6900 (psychological level). On the other hand, resistances are seen at 1.7030 (Jun 24 high), 1.7062 (2014 high Jun 19) and 1.7100 (psychological level) ahead of 1.7180 (Oct 10 2008 high). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 24, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates