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OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
EUR/USD targets the mid-1.2700s – Commerzbank FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, sees potential for a descent towards 1.2700 in the near term. Key Quotes “EUR/USD’s 1.2834 low has not been confirmed by the daily RSI and this does throw up a red flag for the down move – we would continue to tighten stops on short positions”. “Directly overhead we find the accelerated downtrend at 1.2951 today and the market is offered while capped here”. “We target the 1.2755 July 2013 low and the 1.2661 November 2012 low shorter term”. “Longer term target remains the 200 month ma at 1.2208. Above 1.2951/1.3000, we have the 23.6% retracement at 1.3105 and the 1.3222 28th August high. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 19, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
EUR/USD, another ‘dead-cat bounce’? FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The weakness around the single currency is now accelerating, dragging the EUR/USD to test recent lows in sub-1.2850 levels although rebounding to the 1.2865/70 area later. EUR/USD depressed by USD strength, ECB The selling interest intensifies around the EUR on Friday, as the US dollar continues its march north, taking a toll on the pair. Coupled with the current USD rally, disappointing figures from yesterday’s first TLTRO by the ECB - with banks only taking €82.6 billion - continue to weigh on EUR, as it seems the central bank might need to implement another easing measures (QE?). Camilla Sutton, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, commented, “We expect EUR to drift lower; expecting building downside pressure in EURGBP as its trends towards its 2012 low of 0.7755”. Sutton also added that the technicals remain mixed, “but if today’s close is below the low of 1.2835 it would warn of further downside pressure building. Support lies first at 1.2835 followed by 1.2800; while resistance comes in at today’s open of 1.2923”. EUR/USD levels to watch The pair is now retreating 0.41% at 1.2868 and a breach of 1.2834 (low Sep.17) would target 1.2788 (61.8% of 1.2042-1.3995) en route to 1.2755 (low Jul.9 2013). On the upside, the initial hurdle aligns at 1.2931 (high Sep.18) ahead of 1.2982 (high Sep.17) and finally 1.2995 (high Sep.16). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 19, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
USD/CAD slumps as Canadian CPI accelerates FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/CAD slumped to its lowest level in near 2 weeks after data showed consumer inflation rose more than expected in August. August's core CPI rose 2.1% YoY in August beating the 1..8% expected and moved above the BoC's 2% inflation target for the first time in more than 2 years. USD/CAD fell sharply, breaking below 1.0900 and touching a low of 1.0885 so far as the upside surprise may change the Bank of Canada position that inflationary pressures were transitory and move it away from its policy stance. At time of writing, USD/CAD is trading at 1.0890, recording a 0.39% loss on the day. Immediate supports is now seen at 1.0854 (100-day SMA) while the 1.010 area (200-day SMA) could offer resistance on bounces. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 19, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
Canada Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) came in at 0.5%, above expectations (0.2%) in August Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 19, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
Fed's Lacker at odds with the central bank's exit strategy FXStreet (Łódź) - According to a statement released on Friday, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker didn't entirely support the FOMC's strategy towards normalizing monetary policy, announced on Wednesday, as he saw their decision to hold back selling mortgage-backed securities as misguided. Lacker said that in his view MBS should be sold at a steady price, because by doing otherwise the Fed prolongs its interference in the allocation of credit. "The Fed’s MBS holdings may put downward pressure on mortgage rates, compared to holding an equivalent amount of Treasury securities, but if so, then other borrowers would likely face higher interest rates," he stressed. "While this would favor home mortgage borrowers, it tilts the playing field against other borrowing by consumers." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 19, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
AUD/USD consolidation ahead? – UOB Group FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Quek Ser Leang, Market Strategist at UOB Group, believes that the current AUD/USD's price action would be part of a broader consolidation pattern. Key Quotes “The intraday target indicated at 0.8915/20 yesterday was not met with a low of 0.8927”. “While the undertone for this pair is still weak, the current rebound is likely the early part of a consolidation phase”. “Expect range trading for today, likely between 0.8960 and 0.9015”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 19, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
Oil price finishes the week flat FXStreet (Łódź) - Independent Analyst Malcolm Graham-Wood observes that following a few ups and downs this week the price of oil has ended flat. Key quotes "Ups and downs had primarily to do with the Brent expiry and the US inventory figures showing a big build in stocks." "In addition we had a slight drop in Libyan exports of a temporary nature as rockets went off near a big field but with Buzzard coming back the market remains well supplied." "Scotland has decided and voted conclusively to remain with the Union, with a high turnout of 86% they voted 55%-45% to be better together." "Not even the late intervention of Andy Murray, the Scottish tennis player who used to be in the world’s top ten, could alter the result." ”As the Oil & Gas industry was the most affected sector by the vote there will be sighs of relief from Aberdeen and throughout the rest of the business." "Finding the extra 10 billion barrels that the Yes camp claimed would be nice though…" OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 19, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
EUR/SEK poised to decline further – Danske Bank FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Stefan Mellin, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, believes the next movement in EUR/SEK will point south. Key Quotes “The SEK has underperformed versus all G10 currencies over the past year”. “Given that no other G10 central bank has cut rates as aggressively as the Riksbank, one might conclude that it has been a reasonable depreciation of the krona”. “The fact that the krona is now undervalued will make the Swedish export sector more competitive and help fuel inflation”. “We think that USD/SEK will continue to go higher based on relative cyclical arguments and for the same reason we see lower levels in EUR/SEK in the year ahead”. “The SEK may trade with a risk premium in the next couple of weeks following the election but, in our view, the next big leg in EUR/SEK is lower”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 19, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates -
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OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
GBP/USD trading at highest level in two weeks - FXStreet FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik points out that the GBP/USD has been climbing on Thursdayas the Scottish independence referendum proceeds, reaching so far a daily high of 1.6386. Key quotes "Market speculation inclines for a NO win in the ongoing poll about Scotland independence." "The pair has breached the 50% retracement of this month fall, with the 1 hour chart showing a strong upward momentum which supports a continued advance, albeit risk of course, is quite high of headlines messing with technicals." "In the 4 hours chart indicators are also biased higher in positive territory, with 20 SMA now converging with the 38.2% retracement of the same rally around 1.6250." "It won’t be until Asian opening that the market will be closer to known the result which expectations of gains on a NO far more limited than the possible slide on a YES triumph. " OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 18, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
EUR/USD climbs to fresh daily highs FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD saw a brief drop on the back of better-than-expected US jobless claims data but upbeat employment figures were offset but poor housing starts, allowing the pair to resume the upside. After hitting a session low of 1.2855, EUR/USD stretched to a marginal new high for the day at 1.2912 but is having a hard time finding follow-through as investors remain cautious. EUR/USD bounced from a fresh 14-month low of 1.2834 earlier on the day, but every recovery attempt has been capped by the 1.2910/15 area so far. At time of writing, EUR/USD is trading at the 1.2905 zone, 0.32% above its opening price. EUR/USD has had a choppy day on the back of TLTRO disappointing take up and with market attention turning from the Federal Reserve to the Scottish independence referendum. EUR/USD technical outlook “Technically, the EUR/USD 1 hour chart shows price advancing above a still bearish 20 SMA, with indicators heading strongly up above their midlines. Sellers however, seem to be aligned in the 1.2900/20 price zone, adding to the dominant trend”, said Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet. “In the 4 hours chart the technical stance is still quite bearish, with indicators having barely corrected oversold readings now turning lower well into negative territory, and 20 SMA reaffirming the mentioned resistance area around 1.2920”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 18, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
No move to negative rates by SNB a disappointment to markets - RBS FXStreet (Łódź) - According to the RBS team of analysts, the SNB's decision today to hold monetary policy steady disappointed markets, but an introduction of negative rates could be a shock for the Swiss financial system. Key quotes "Negative rates would be counter to their objectives of cooling the housing market, could negatively impact the financial system and are not clearly justified by the economic outlook." "Nor have the SNB had to defend the floor in two years." "We expect a continued grind lower in EUR/CHF towards 1.20." "The SNB will likely intervene in the FX market to prevent a print below 1.20." "Negative rates could then emerge if FX reserves began to build rapidly." "But we are not convinced this would be the case, with EUR/CHF declines driven more by broad-based EUR weakness rather than demand for CHF assets." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 18, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
Credit Suisse: Stay long USD/JPY- eFXnews FXStreet (Łódź) - The eFXnews team comment that Credit Suisse advises to maintain a long USD/JPY position. Key quotes "USD/JPY has surged higher, taking out the potential trendline resistance from May 2013 at 107.53, notes Credit Suisse." "Further strength here can see a move towards 109.07 initially, ahead of the medium-term potential trend resistance from June 2007 at 109.31." "Whilst we would look for an cap here at first, bigger picture, we stay bullish for an eventual break which should then see scope for what we deem as tougher resistance at 110.67/111.60 – the 50% retracement of the entire 1998/2011 bear market and August 2008 high." "In line with this view, CS maintains a long USD/JPY from 106.80 targeting 109.25." 'This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.' OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 18, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
The Scottish Referendum: views from RBS, BBH FXpro and MSCI FXStreet (London) - With Scotland currently going to the polls to decide the future of the Union, here is our roundup of market views on the outcome and the market implications. Brown Brothers Harriman Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy The Scotland vote today is the main event, and as important as a "yes" vote would be, it is not the only event today. There is not much more to add to the discussion. While the polls remain a statistical dead heat, the wisdom of crowds work implies giving more weight to the bookmakers and the markets, which clearly favor a "no" victory. There is some genuine concern that Scottish referendums will be a recurring theme (see Quebec) on a small victory for the unionists. Such fears, coupled with the fact that some have already positioned for such an outcome may, may curtail the positive sterling response to the a "no" vote. RBS Trading Desk Strategy The GBP was relatively stable against the USD and stronger against the EUR and JPY ahead of the Scottish independence vote with one-week GBP implied volatility trading just under 14.9%, compared to an historical three-month volatility of 4.8%. However, this has eased somewhat from yesterday when it was around 17.4%. This suggests that the market is a little more confident of a No outcome, consistent with the latest polls that slightly favour a No outcome, stabilising over the final week ahead of the vote after the No-vote lead narrowed sharply in recent weeks. The market is pricing in considerably higher downside volatility risk for GBP with the price of GBP puts exceeding the price of calls (25delta 1week risk reversals) by 4.4% A Yes vote would be a significant surprise and may rattle global risk appetite with negative consequences for Emerging currencies. It may also trigger profit-taking in long positions in USD against EUR and JPY, even though the implications may be more negative for the EUR. A No vote may be moderately supportive for GBP and broader risk appetite. MSCI ESG Research If Scotland votes for independence, it could have long run implications on the environmental, social, and governance risks facing both the UK and Scotland. At present, UK's ESG Government Rating is 'A' with a Stable outlook. In general, a vote for independence by Scotland does not promise to bear overall positive fruit for either the UK or Scotland from an ESG perspective. If Scotland votes for independence, it is bound to result in downward pressure on the ESG score for both the UK and Scotland. Over 90% of the UK's oil and gas reserves are located in Scotland, and a vote for independence would lead to the transfer of a large portion of reserves to the newly formed country.1 While the territorial proportion of oil revenues from the North Sea between Scotland and the UK has not yet been finalized, what is largely assumed is that Scotland walks away with a major share. While Scotland tends to win big on natural resources, its wins could be dwarfed by its weaker performance on important socio-economic parameters. Firms are wary of how an independent Scotland will manage its industries as it struggles to adjust to its new identity. If Scots vote for independence, a considerable number of companies have stated their intention to re-locate from Scotland to England. Further, Scotland has an ageing population, with close to 17.4% of its population over the age of 65 years. With independence, the buck would pass on to Scotland to bear the associated social expenditure. Expenditure on social services provided to Scotland by the UK is already higher than in the rest of the country (public spending at GBP 12,629 per person compared to GBP 11,381), and expected to rise if Scotland secedes.4 Additionally, if the vote for independence goes through, Scotland is likely to witness a large flight of its intellectual capital, which is expected to migrate to the UK on the prospects of securing professional opportunities. Labor supply in the UK ex Scotland is projected to increase by 12% by 2060, as opposed to in Scotland, where it will remain flat. FXpro Angus Campbell, Senior Analyst So, how will sterling react in the event of a Yes or No vote? Forecasting FX rates are notoriously difficult however we have put together some thoughts below: YES VOTE A yes vote will cause an immediate sell off in sterling as it has not been fully priced into the market. We saw GBPUSD fall 4 cents following the You Gov poll some ten days ago that showed the Yes Campaign in the lead for the first time ever, a 2.5% fall, but if the vote for independence succeeds then a much bigger sterling sell off can be expected possibly in the region of 5% taking GBPUSD well below the 1.6000 level where it would likely stay and fail to recoup over the medium, even longer term, as the dollar continues to recover. Against the euro sterling could suffer less of a dramatic fall due to the ECB’s continued loosening of monetary policy and should recoup losses into the year end as central bank policy reaffirms the divergence between the BOE and ECB, even if rate hike expectations from the BOE are pushed back as a result of the yes vote. NO VOTE This result would be a boon for the British pound which should see a strong relief rally in the short term as all the worries over how assets and liabilities will be split are swept firmly under the carpet. I say “swept” because the issue is highly likely to resurface at some point in the future, especially if the Scottish National Party maintains its grip on power in Holyrood. Sterling’s strength however may not last all that long as the existing trend re-establishes itself. The dollar recovery looks to be becoming entrenched and so any bounce in GBPUSD could be largely eradicated come year end. The one thing that we can expect for sure is that with such a close race volatility overnight on Thursday and throughout Friday is going to be high. My personal opinion is that the No Campaign will win on the day – it’s one thing saying you’ll vote for independence, it’s another when you are standing in the polling booth and actually casting your vote, when often a voter reflects on the significance of such a decision and is more likely to stick with the status quo. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 18, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
GBP/USD hits 2-week highs as 'no' vote is priced in FXStreet (Córdoba) - GBP/USD rose to its highest level in 2 weeks as markets are pricing in a 'no' in Scotland independence referendum. As Scottish referendum unravels, investors rush to buy the pound as pre-voting opinion polls gave a slight lead to those in favor of remaining in the United Kingdom. The Scottish vote ends at 21:00 GMT but the unofficial estimated time of the result is around 7:00 GMT on Friday. First results are expected around 01:00 GMT. GBP/USD rose more than half a cent within the last hour and reached a fresh 2-week high of 1.6386 in recent dealings. At time of writing, Cable is trading at 1.6373, exactly 100 pips or 0.59% above its opening price. GBP/USD technical levels In terms of technical levels, GBP/USD could find next resistances 1.6386 (intraday high), 1.6400 (psychological level) and 1.6465 (Sept 4 high). On the flip side, supports are seen at 1.6240 (10-day SMA), 1.6200 (psychological level) and 1.6161 (Sept 16 low). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 18, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
USD/JPY extends gains to 109.00 FXStreet (San Francisco) - The US Dollar is extending its gains versus the Japanese Yen following better than expected jobless claims in the United States. The pair is performing fresh highs around 109.00. Earlier in the day, the USD/JPY climbed to 108.85 where the pair found selling interest that launched it back to 108.50. Then the pair resumed its uptrend again and now it is pricing a news highs since September 2008 at 108.96. Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 108.82, up 0.41% on the day, having posted a daily high at 108.97 and low at 108.31. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing neutral conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bullish. USD/JPY levels If the pair manages to break above the 109.00, it will face next resistances at 10920 and 109.60. On the downside, supports are at 108.50, 108.30 and 108.70. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 18, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
Fed's Yellen: US economy improving but recession effects still evident FXStreet (Łódź) - Speaking at an economic conference in Washington on Thursday, Fed chair Janet Yellen avoided the topic of monetary policy when delivering her prepared remarks. • US economy seen improving, although recession effects persist. • "Fed will continue promoting asset building, the US needs a greater diversification of assets. • Lower-income households suffered most during the crisis, Yellen points out. • Improving housing market will remain crucial for family assets. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 18, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
US: Housing Starts down to 0.956M in August FXStreet (Łódź) - US Housing Starts were at 0.956M in August, down from 1.117M recorded in July, the US Census Bureau informed on Thursday. Consensus pointed to 1.040M. Building Permits slid to 0.998M from 1.052M, below forecasts of 1.045M. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 18, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
AUD/USD mired around 0.8970 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Aussie dollar remains unable to gather further traction on Thursday, with the AUD/USD hovering over 0.8970/80. AUD/USD in multi-month lows The current USD rally is confining the pair to trade in levels last seen in late February/early March, as markets continue to digest yesterday’s FOMC announcements. Nothing of note in Oz in the data front, only showing that RBA’s FX transactions hit A$381 million in August, down from July’s A$433 million. Quek Ser Leang, Market Strategist at UOB Group, signaled “AUD touched a low of 0.8939 early this morning and with no signs of stabilization yet, expect further down-move towards the next support at 0.8915/20. Strong resistance is at 0.9000”. AUD/USD relevant levels As of writing the pair is advancing 0.09% at 0.8969 with the immediate resistance at 0.9000 (psychological mark) ahead of 0.9106 (high Sep.17) and then 0.9113 (high Sep.16). On the downside, a break below 0.8951 (low Sep.17) would expose 0.8923 (low Mar.12) and finally 0.8909 (low Mar.4). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 18, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates -
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OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
OPEC Secretary General sees low price of oil as temporary FXStreet (Łódź) - Independent Analyst Malcolm Graham-Wood reports that OPEC Secretary General's suggestion during his meeting with the Russian Oil Minister on Tuesday that the current low price of oil is temporary, caused Brent to jump by over two dollars to $96.63. Key quotes "He also suggested that at the next Opec meeting quotas may have to come down from the current level of 30m b/d to around 29.5m b/d." "The trouble is that whilst all member of Opec want higher prices few are prepared to cut their own production and even if they do agree to pare back they usually cheat." "I mean, current quotas are being exceeded by at least 500/- b/d before Saudi Aramco cut back recently. At least it shows that Opec are at least looking at the supply and demand numbers for next year." "The API inventory stats had the analysts in a right pickle, having forecasted a draw of 1.5m barrels, stocks unexpectedly rose by 3.3m barrels." "I will hold judgement until the EIA numbers tonight to look at both crude and products as September can throw up some funnies across the board." "The statements from the Fed tonight will be interesting, markets are expecting further cuts in QE and to see if Janet Yellen will give a steer on interest rates, for oil watchers we need to see if the modest pick-up in the economy is coming through." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 17, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
US CPI for August significantly weaker than expected - ING FXStreet (Łódź) - Rob Carnell from ING points out that US August CPI disappointed, sliding to 1.7% from 2% on an annual basis, below forecasts of 1.9%. Key quotes "Whilst we had expected the core index to nose higher, it was flat, which also resulted in core inflation dipping down again to 1.7% from 1.9%." "The large fall in energy prices in August (-2.6%mom) was somewhat larger than expected, and was exacerbated by a flat service sector reading (0.0%), softer than trend housing (0.1%), negative apparel (-0.2%), flat medical care, negative recreation(-0.4%) negative education (-0.1%) and softer than usual 'other goods and services,' including tobacco, which was also flat on the month." "Such uniform declines across CPI subcomponents are rare, and in our experience, usually owe to a common factor, such as poor seasonal adjustment, in the absence of an obvious external cause." "This weakness does also look rather odd against the backdrop of recently strong retail sales, and anecdotes of rising pricing intentions." "That said, low and falling energy costs may be helping to offset other cost pressures, resulting in a broader decline than evident simply in the energy subcomponents, so we can’t entirely write it off." "It is also great timing for such a soft CPI reading, with the FOMC decision later today, and markets anticipating at least some small change in the Fed’s rhetoric." "We suspect that any such changes will be small, most likely, a tweak to the text referring to the time after QE ends before the first rate hike. Perhaps a replacement of the word 'considerable', in this context." "Whilst we believed that markets had been anticipating too much in the way of change at this meeting, this release is likely to temper enthusiasm for a bigger adjustment, and if we are right, then markets are likely to take a minimally changed FOMC text in their stride later on." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 17, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
USD/JPY at 110.00 in medium-term – Rabobank FXStreet (Edinburgh) - According to Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank, the pair could reach 110.00 in the medium-term. Key Quotes “One year Japanese government yields reportedly traded at a yield of -0.005% this morning, the first time 12 mth paper has sunk below the zero mark”. “The drop in yields to below zero is a function of the huge demand for government assets from the BoJ to meet to needs of its huge stimulus plan”. “There is no question that the easing measures that the BoJ has put in place are very aggressive. It is very likely that without them Japan’s economic woes would be deeper than they already are”. “In general recent data releases have been weak. This suggests that the economy is failing to bounce back as well as hoped in the current quarter after the Q2 economic contraction that followed the hike in the consumption tax in April”. “Even though it is clear that QE is no silver bullet, in view of limited alternatives available, there is speculation in the market that the BoJ will be forced to increase its easing measures even further in the coming months; though it may have to become increasingly inventive”. “Into the summer months BoJ optimism had repressed talk of a step up in policy action so this change in expectations has had some impact on yen positions”. “That said, we have argued for some time that the outlook for the USD is key for the direction of USD/JPY and that further upside will be facilitated by a recovery in the greenback”. “While we expect that the USD faces set backs from here, not least because we do not expect a rate hike from the Fed until the end of 2015, we do view the USD as having embarked on a long-term recovery”. “We maintain a medium-term target for USD/JPY at 110.00”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 17, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
EUR/USD jumps after US inflation data FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD pushed to fresh daily highs at the beginning of the American session after data showed US consumer prices grew less than expected in August. The greenback weakened across the board and EUR/USD surged to fresh highs as both the core and the headline US CPI came in at 1.7% year-over-year in August versus 1.9% expected. The CPI fell 0.2% MoM (0.0% exp) while the core was flat (vs +0.2% exp). EUR/USD jumped 25 pips on the news and hit a peak of 1.2980 but lacked follow-through as investors seem unwilling to take big positions ahead of the Federal Reserve monetary policy statement. Markets are expecting a hawkish shift in Fed stance, so any change in forward guidance might increase the appeal of the US dollar. EUR/USD technical levels At time of writing, EUR/USD is trading at 1.2970, 0.09% above its opening price, with immediate resistances lining up at the 1.2994/1.3000 zone (Sept 16 high/psychological level), 1.3059 (21-day SMA) and 1.3100 (psychological level). On the flip side, supports are seen at 1.2939 (10-day SMA), 1.2908 (Sept 15 & 12 low) and 1.2900 (psychological level). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 17, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
USD/JPY falls on weak US inflation FXStreet (San Francisco) - The US reported its first negative monthly CPI since October 2013 and a weaker than expected yearly inflation in August that put the USD under pressure as it hints more problems for the Fed in case they are thinking to hike rates. The US is back on negative inflation in August with -0.2% MoM. First negative reading since October 2013. In the same line, yearly inflation was reported weaker than expected with 1.7% YoY, down from previous month of 1.9%. It is not a good news for those rate hike believers. The USD/JPY fell to 107.10 after a 25-pip decline from 107.35 following US data. Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 107.19, up 0.06% on the day, having posted a daily high at 107.37 and low at 107.09. USD/JPY spot is in neutral territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bullish. USD/JPY levels Weak CPI data fueled a renewed dip within recent ranges for the greenback. According to Gerry Davies from FXBeat, there are options expiries at today's New York cut at 106.75 ($300 mln), 107.00 ($100 mln) and 107.25 ($200 mln). If the pair extends negative figures, it will face next support at 107.00 and 106.80. On the upside, next frontiers are at 107.35, 107.40 and 107.60. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 17, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates