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Everything posted by OctaFX_Farid
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OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
EUR back on the defensive – TDS FXStreet (Barcelona) - FX Strategists at TD Securities, note that EUR/USD remains on the defensive ahead of US NFP, and is poised to test 1.1120 in the short-term, breaking below which might slide towards 1.1050/00 levels. Key Quotes “This week will get off to a slow start, with the UK on holiday today. That will not be helpful for the EUR which really needs to see a bit more participation in the long side of the trade if it is to build on recent gains.” “The end of last week’s trading was inauspicious, with EURUSD stalling around 1.13, a major technical point on the longer-term charts (the first retracement resistance of the 1.40/1.04 decline) and the start to this week’s even less so, with EURUSD trading heavy and poised to test short-term trend support at 1.1120; below here and the EUR will slide back to retest the 1.1050/00 area. If the EUR can’t get above here, it has little chance of sustaining the recent bid.” “It remains to be seen whether investors want to extend positioning ahead of the US NFP data on Friday, where market consensus expectations currently points to a gain of 230k jobs and a 5.4% u/rate (TD 195k and 5.5%). Good data (even our below consensus call is respectable), in other words, which will go someway at least in dispelling concerns that sluggish US growth will prevent the Fed from raising rates later this year.” “Good data (and upward revisions to the March result) would be an unequivocal plus for the USD.” May 04,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! -
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OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
EUR/USD drops to 1.1180 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The shared currency is accelerating its downside at the end of the week, rapidly dragging EUR/USD to session lows in the proximity of 1.1180. EUR/USD weaker as USD wakes up A wave of USD-buying keeps hurting the pair following the releases in the US economy. Recall that both the ISM Manufacturing and the Reuters/Michigan index came in below expectations albeit matching the previous print. In addition, market participants seem to be cashing up part of the recent strong gains in the pair, collaborating with the downside. EUR/USD key levels At the moment the pair is retreating 0.16% at 1.1205 and a drop below 1.1184 (low May.1) would expose 1.1125 (daily cloud top) and finally 1.1072 (low Apr.30). On the upside, the immediate hurdle aligns at 1.1291 (high May 1) followed by 1.1380 (high Feb.26) and then 1.1389 (high Feb.25). May 01,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
Greenback puts euro under threat in currency wars - Rabobank FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank noted that by the end of last year is was becoming evident that the ECB had become a winner in the currency war, taking the baton from the BoJ. "By wiping the markets into a frenzy of anticipation ahead of the introduction of the asset purchase plan, ECB President Draghi pushed the EUR into a path of rapid depreciation." "The plunge in EUR/USD was facilitated by the broadbased rise in the USD which was supported by widespread expectations that the Fed could be hiking interest rates by the middle of this year. On the back of a spate of soft US data releases, those expectations now lie in tatters and the USD’s downtrend is showing signs of reversing." "The dollar index has broken below its 100 day sma. For the first time since the downside trend in EUR/USD started last July it posted a monthly gain in April. EUR/USD1.1265/80 is a key resistance level (the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the December high and daily lows throughout February). " "While a sustained break above would be another constructive short-term signal for the USD we maintain that the sell-off in the greenback is likely to run out of steam." "The stronger USD has been a major catalyst in the war against low growth and weak inflationary pressures being waged in various part of the world. If the USD sell off persists, there is risk that several central banks will reassert their dovish positions in order to ensure that relative interest rate differentials remain clearly in favour of the greenback." May 01,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
EUR rise unsustainable – BTMU FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Research Team at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, remain of the view that the current rise in eurozone yields and the EUR is unsustainable. Key Quotes “The euro has staged a rebound over the last week supported by a pick-up in euro-zone yields. The German bund yield has increased sharply over the last two trading days, although still remains close to record lows.” “The ECB’s aggressive easing is likely to continue to weigh on euro-zone yields and the euro as yield spreads remain unfavourable. At the current juncture we are more inclined to view the recent rise in euro-zone yields and the euro as unsustainable.” May 01,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
US data not supporting a June hike - ING FXStreet (Guatemala) - James Knightley, analyst at ING Bank explained that today’s US data isn’t particularly helpful for those looking for a June rate hike. Key Quotes: "The April manufacturing ISM index came in at 51.5, the same as in March, but below the 52.0 consensus figure." "That said, the activity numbers weren’t all that bad with actual production rising to 56.0 from 53.8 while new orders rose to a four month high, albeit well down on the 60+ levels seen in 4Q14. Interestingly, new export orders actually strengthened despite plenty of commentators suggesting that dollar strength is damaging the US economy and should mean that the Fed delays policy tightening." "There was more support for an “on hold” Fed from the weakness seen in the employment component of the ISM report. It dropped from the break-even 50.0 level in March to 48.3, indicating that the sector saw job losses in April." "This is the weakest jobs number since September 2009 and it supports our view that after 1Q15’s economic weakness, labour market hiring will take a little while to pick up – hence our sub consensus 185,000 call for next Friday’s payrolls figure." "We have also seen a big fall in construction spending in March (-0.6%MoM versus consensus forecast of a 0.5% rise) while the April final reading of University of Michigan sentiment was unchanged from the preliminary figure of 95.9." "Taking it all together, the numbers are a little disappointing and if the jobs data is indeed on the softer side of expectations next Friday it will make a June rate hike look unlikely." May 01,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
EUR/USD spikes 1.1290 on US data FXStreet (Edinburgh) - EUR/USD managed to quickly spike to the 1.1290 level following the US data releases on Friday, although it’s returned to 1.1240 afterwards. EUR/USD within the range Another set of US releases, and another disappointment, and another chance for the pair to climb further. EUR/USD clinched fresh highs near 1.1290 after the key ISM Manufacturing came in at 51.5 during April, matching March’s print albeit a tad lower than consensus (52.0), and the sentiment gauge tracked by the Reuters/Michigan index stayed unchanged at 95.9, also below estimates at 96.0. Further data showed construction Spending contracting at a monthly pace of 0.6%. Next on tap will be Total Vehicle Sales and the speech by FOMC Williams. EUR/USD key levels At the moment the pair is advancing 0.12% at 1.1237 with the next hurdle at 1.1291 (high May 1) followed by 1.1380 (high Feb.26) and then 1.1389 (high Feb.25). On the downside, a drop below 1.1203 (low May.1) would expose 1.1125 (daily cloud top) and finally 1.1072 (low Apr.30). May 01,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
Tactically bearish on EM FX but the rally is gaining momentum – SG FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Team at Societe Generale, maintains a tactical bearish approach on EM FX, and further share their FX exposure in the same. Key Quotes “Until uncertainty over US monetary policy is eliminated the backdrop for GEM FX should remain challenging (For now, doom and gloom). Lack of appetite by speculative investors to position for medium term appreciation should continue to mitigate any EM rally.” “We continue to have a tactically bearish view which we express through long USD risk or relative value trades.” “Our positioning is concentrated in bearish EMEA exposure - long USD-TRY, USD-ZAR, and USD-ILS. – but also includes long USD-BRL and a directionally bullish dollar trade (owning USD-IDR 3x12 NDF spread) and a defensive relative value position (long INR-IDR 12m NDF).” May 01,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
GBP/USD near-term risk titled to the downside – Scotiabank FXStreet (Barcelona) - Camilla Sutton CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, believes that the political uncertainty implies that risks for GBP/USD remain tilted to the downside in the near-term. Key Quotes “GBP was soft retracing recent strength and entering the NA session (and the UK long weekend) down 0.4%. Data was mixed, but the release of a disappointing manufacturing PMI (falling to 51.9) weighed heavily on GBP.” “We continue to cling to concerns over the upcoming election and see near‐term GBP risk heavily weighted to the downside.” May 01,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
ECB could revise lower its inflation forecasts – Danske Bank FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In light of the recent inflation figures in the euro area, analysts at Danske Bank believes the ECB’s forecasts remain too optimistic, and could be revised lower in the June meeting. Key Quotes “Euro area HICP inflation increased to 0.0% y/y in April from -0.1% y/y in March”. “Core inflation was unchanged at 0.6% y/y, as service price inflation declined to a new historical low of 0.9% y/y in April from 1.0% y/y in March. The very low service price inflation reflects that there are still no signs of higher wage pressure despite progress in the labour market”. “The low core inflation increases the likelihood that the ECB will lower its core inflation forecast in June, when it will publish new projections. In March the ECB expected core inflation to average 0.8% in 2015 but with an average of 0.6% in the first four months and a continued downtrend in service price inflation, we expect it to lower its forecast. In 2016 the ECB expects core inflation to increase to an average of 1.3%, which we also believe is too high”. “A lower core inflation projection from the ECB is important, as it will continue its QE purchases until it sees a sustained adjustments in inflation and not just an increase that is driven by a rebound in energy price inflation”. May 01,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! -
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OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
Credit Agricole: Fed rate hike in September or later – eFXnews FXStreet (Barcelona) - The team at Credit Agricole, argue that the recent and the projected US data indicate that the Fed might being its rate lift-off in September, but risks remain tilted for a later hike, as noted by eFXnews. Key Quotes “The key issue for the FOMC, as we see it, is the extent to which the Q1 slowdown in growth is transitory or reflects more persistent factors. We believe that the Fed will want to see convincing evidence that transitory factors were behind much of the slowdown and that the underlying fundamentals suggest that the expected Q2 growth rebound will be sustained with above-trend growth in the second half.” “Above-trend growth would continue to absorb labor market slack. That should contribute to an acceleration in wages that will further sustain consumer spending and likely put some upward pressure on prices.” “We see it as highly unlikely that the FOMC would have sufficient evidence to support that scenario until sometime in the third quarter. Based on our macroeconomic outlook, we believe that the most likely scenario for the Fed is to begin the process of rate normalization in September. The risks are currently tilted towards a later rather than an earlier lift-off but a spring growth rebound, solid labor markets and constructive comments from the Fed on the incoming data flow are expected to prepare the markets for a rate hike this fall.” “The disappointingly weak Q1 real GDP growth (+0.2%) was a mixed picture. Some of the factors behind the slowdown were likely transitory such as the harsh winter weather impact on consumer spending and logistical supply disruptions from the West Coast port slowdown that curbed production.” “We expect a rebound in current-quarter activity from these transitory depressants. However, the weakness in business investment spending and net exports will likely linger for a while.” “We project real GDP growth just above 2% in Q2 but accelerating further in the second half to around a 3% growth pace.” Apr 30,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
EUR/JPY extends gains above 134.00 FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/JPY rallied another 100 pips and reached 134.34, level last seen back in early March. Euro up, Yen down The pair is climbing more than 1% on Thursday, extending the weekly rally to more than 500 pips. While the euro is the best performer in the currency market, the yen is falling across the baord as USD/JPY approaches 120.00 after trading bleow 119.00 just a few hours ago. EUR/JPY is about to post the highest close in almost two months as it continues to recover from 127.49 (Apr 14 low). From a technical perspective, the euro strengthened considerably yesterday after breaking a key resistance located around 131.50 - 131.70. Apr 30,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
EUR/GBP likely to rise to 0.7350 – FXStreet FXStreet (Barcelona) - FXStreet Editor and Analyst, Omkar Godbole, sees further gains possible for EUR/GBP towards 0.7350, with both fundamentals and technicals likely to support the bullish view. Key Quotes “The pair is likely to close today above its 50-DMA located at 0.7228. Sharp gains on Wednesday and today could trigger a technical correction tomorrow. However, the losses are likely to be restricted around 50-DMA at 0.7728.” “A break above 0.7274 could see renewed buying interest, thereby opening doors for 0.7319-0.7329.” “Further gains to 0.7350 are likely in case the pair manages to close above 0.7329.” Apr 30,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
UK political uncertainty set to weigh on GBP – Rabobank FXStreet (Barcelona) - Strategists at Rabobank argue that this UK election has the capacity to create more uncertainty, and that this political risk is going to weigh on the Pound going forward. Key Quotes “The political uncertainties this year appear to be extremely high. There is risk that the UK may have to wait a relatively long period before a coalition government is formed. If/Once it is in place, there is fear that it may not be sufficiently coherent to last the full five years.” “That said, if the 2010 election is used as a precedent, it may be assumed that election jitters in sterling may be fairly muted in the coming weeks.” “We would argue, however, that this election has the capacity to create more uncertainty than the last. Firstly, opinion polls have not been universally showing that the ‘business friendly’ Tory party is in the lead. Secondly, that ‘business friendly’ tag is confusing since if the next coalition is led by the Tories, a referendum on EU membership is likely.” “The risk that the UK could leave the EU has the potential to worry international investors more than the general election itself. Given also the unknowns regarding the composition and coherence of the new government, on almost all outcomes the uncertainties for investors could rise post election. This could weigh on sterling going forward.” Apr 30,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
Gold drops sharply to USD 1185.8/Oz FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices fell to a low of USD 1185.8/OZ from USD 1204/Oz levels after the sharp drop in the weekly jobless claims in the US triggered a wave of buying in the US dollar. Gold: Trades below 50-DMA The metal currently trades below its 50-DMA located at USD 1189.37/Oz levels. Gold, which is inversely related to the rate hike expectations, took a beating after the labor department data showed the initial jobless claims in the last week fell by 34K to 262K in the week ended April 25, the lowest since April 15, 2000. Following the upbeat data, the USD index was pushed higher to 95.44 from the pre-data level of 94.71. Consequently, the metal fell to trade 2.05% lower for the day. Meanwhile, the personal spending and income report was largely ignored since it was a part of the first quarter GDP released on Wednesday. Gold Technical Levels The immediate support is located at 1183.7 (Apr. 14 low), under which losses could be extended to 1175.00 (Apr. 24 low). On the flip side, a break above 1189.37 (50-DMA) could see the metal re-test its 10-DMA at 1194.27. Apr 30,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
Treasury yields rise on a sharp drop in the jobless claims FXStreet (Mumbai) - The yields on the short duration and long duration treasuries in the US rose after the labor department data showed the initial jobless claims in the last week fell to 15-year lows. The 10-year yield rose to an intraday high of 2.099%, while the 30-year yield rose to 2.793. Meanwhile, the 2-year yield, which mimics short-term interest rate expectations, rose to a high of 0.606%. The initial jobless claims dropped by 34K to 262K in the week ended April 25, the lowest since April 15, 2000. The actual figure was smaller than the consensus estimate of 290K. The sharp drop in the jobless claims supports the Fed’s view that the job gains are likely to continue despite the slowdown in the first quarter. Meanwhile, the disappointing personal income and a weaker-than-expected personal spending data for March was ignored by the treasuries mainly because both the numbers were included in the first quarter GDP report released on Wednesday, showed the economy growing at only a 0.2% annual pace after a 2.2% rate in the fourth quarter. Apr 30,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
EUR/USD supported by narrowing UST and bund yield spread – Growth Aces FXStreet (Barcelona) - With Eurozone bond yields rising on rising inflation, The Growth Aces Research Team, views that the narrowing yield spread between USD and EUR will support the single currency, hence remain bullish on EUR/USD, targeting 1.1307 levels. Key Quotes “The EUR/USD had rallied on Wednesday as the surprisingly soft US GDP data weighed on the USD. The Federal Reserve's post-meeting statement said the economic slowdown was probably transitory.” “The EUR/USD rally is continued today after Eurozone bonds yields rose on easing deflation fears. The Eurozone ended four months of deflation in April with consumer prices unchanged from year-ago levels. Core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and unprocessed food costs, was unchanged at 0.6% yoy.” “We expect inflation to rise gradually in the coming months. We will see stronger acceleration in CPI in the fourth quarter this year due to base effects.” “10-year bond yields for Italy and Spain are now 25-30 bps higher than when ECB’s quantitative easing programme started. Bond yields in France, Belgium, Netherlands, Austria and Finland are already at the same levels when the QE started (or even slightly higher). 10-year German Bund yields are getting closer to levels seen before the ECB started buying bonds.” “The spread between US Treasuries yields and German Bund yields has narrowed. This situation supports EUR/USD rises.” “A rise in bond yields may result from the lack of liquidity in government bonds now that the central bank has snapped up large portions of the stock of debt with its quantitative easing programme. However, bonds sell-off has a global character. U.S. Treasury yields also rose, with below-forecast economic growth data and no sign of an early rate hike from the Federal Reserve.” “We are looking to buy EUR/USD at 1.1040. If the order is filled the target will be above 100-dma, currently at 1.1307, but below strong resistance level of 1.1380 (high on February 26).” “Resistance: 1.1248 (high Feb 27), 1.1280 (76.4% of 1.1534-1.0457), 1.1307 (100-dma)” “Support: 1.1072 (session low Apr 30), 1.0960 (low Apr 29), 1.0924 (55-dma)” Apr 30,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! -
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OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
US growth disappoints, dollar pays price – BBH FXStreet (Barcelona) - Mark Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, reviews the US GDP release, noting that the Dollar faced the brunt of much weaker than anticipated Q1 growth data, with investment falling 2.5%, seeing the biggest decline since 2009. Key Quotes “The US economy essentially stagnated in Q1, with the economy expanding 0.2% at an annualized rate. The Bloomberg consensus was a for 1% expansion, but we warned of downside risks.“ “The dollar, already under pressure, fell further. The euro has took out the $1.1050 level and sterling has moved above $1.54. The dollar failed to sustain gains above JPY119.00. However, with debt market shrugged it off and the dollar stabilized at lower levels.“ “It was a poor quarter across the board. Consumption, which jumped 4.4% in Q4 14, slowed to 1.9%, which was slightly above expectations.” “Investment fell 2.5%. It is the biggest decline since the end of 2009. It appears that no other sector has managed to pick up the slack created by the investment cuts in the energy sector. Investment in oil and mining collapsed at a nearly 49% annualized pace.“ “Government spending did not help. State and local governments cut spending by 1.5% at an annualized pace. Spending by the Federal government rose at a 0.3% pace. Net exports were a drag, subtracting 1.25% off GDP, the largest in a year. The trade deficit widened to $522 bln from $470 bln in Q4 14. Price pressures remained modest. The core PCE deflator rose 0.9%, the smallest rise in five years.” Apr 29,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
USD/MXN recovers from lows FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Mexican peso is now shedding some of the earlier gains vs. its northern neighbor on Wednesday, taking USD/MXN to the 15.25 area. USD/MXN bounces off 15.20 The pair dropped to fresh lows in the proximity of the 15.20 level after the US economy expanded less than previously estimates, 0.2% on an yearly basis during the first quarter vs. expectations for a 1.0% gain. The pair will remain under pressure however, in light of the upcoming results from US Pending Home Sales followed by the more relevant FOMC meeting. USD/MXN levels to watch The pair is now losing 0.12% at 15.2384 and a breakdown of 15.1883 (low Apr.28) would open the door to 15.1149 (low Apr.16) and finally 15.0717 (low Apr.10). On the flip side, the initial hurdle lines up at 15.3924 (high Apr.28) ahead of 15.4326 (high Apr.27) and then 15.4918 (high Apr.21). Apr 29,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
Treasury yields inch higher despite weak GDP report FXStreet (Mumbai) - The yields on the short duration and long duration treasury yields in the US extended gains even though the first estimate of the first quarter US GDP report showed a sharp slowdown in the economic activity. The 10-year yield in the US rose to a high of 2.081%, before falling back to 2.053% after the US Commerce Department data showed the economic growth in the first quarter slowed down to an annualized rate of 0.2%, missing the estimate of 1% by a big margin. The 30-year yield rose to 2.792%, before moving back to 2.756%. At the moment, the long-end yields have gained at least 8 basis points. Short-end yields under perform The gains short-end yields – 1-year and 2-year – are relatively restricted as compared to the long-end. The 2-year yield is up 1.2 basis points, while the 1-year yield is more or less flat. The short-end of the curve mimics the short-term interest rate expectations in the economy. Apr 28,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
AUD/USD could head towards 0.8250/0.8300 – Westpac FXStreet (Edinburgh) - A continuation of the upbeat momentum in the pair could see it advancing to the 0.8250/0.8300 levels, noted strategists at Westpac. Key Quotes “AUD/USD has finally gained some traction from the steep bounce in iron ore prices, despite the less impressive rally in longer dated contracts”. “This has reinforced the optimism over China's monetary policy settings, with a range of stories doing the rounds. Certainly something seems to be afoot”. “Uncertainty over the May RBA decision has also helped AUD outperform on crosses. But there is an obvious limit to the further gains AUD can expect from the notion of a surprise steady hand next week”. “There is nothing to suggest the RBA is suddenly unconcerned about AUD, so pricing for a cut on Tue is likely to linger >50% if AUD/USD hovers around 0.80 into the meeting”. “Westpac's view remains that the RBA will cut on Tue and not specifically indicate that 2.0% is the cycle low. This should help keep a lid on an otherwise buoyant AUD/USD, with fuel from short-covering of spec positions that were still very large as of the latest CFTC data. Any post-RBA dip to 0.7850 would be a buying opportunity”. “A positive medium term momentum bias underpins the recent impulsive rise. This week’s break of range highs at 0.7910/40 targets a minimum extension to 0.8250/0.8300”. Apr 28,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
USD/CAD pierced 1.2000 on US data FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback is rapidly losing the grip vs. its Canadian counterpart on Wednesday, dragging USD/CAD to fresh lows in sub-1.2000 levels. USD/CAD now focuses on FOMC The pair saw its downside accelerated after the US GDP figures disappointed market expectations, expanding at an annual pace of 0.2% during the first quarter vs. 1.0% previously forecasted. Spot quickly visited levels last traded in mid-January around 1.1990, although it has quickly returned above the 1.2000 handle. Next of relevance will be Pending Home Sales ahead of the key FOMC meeting. USD/CAD significant levels At the moment the pair is down 0.08% at 1.2022 with the next support at 1.1989 (low Apr.29) followed by 1.1985 (high Jan.19) and then 1.1940 (low Jan.20). On the other hand, a break above 1.2116 (high Apr.28) would open the door to 1.2205 (high Apr.27) and finally 1.2269 (high Apr.23). Apr 28,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker! -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
UK election betting odds show few positive signs for Labour – TDS FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Research Team at TD Securities shares an update regarding the key developments in the betting markets related to UK elections. Key Quotes “Betting odds for the UK election have started to show a discernable gap between the odds of Ed Miliband becoming the next PM remaining around 60% while the odds for a Labour-led government have fallen to 50/50.” “We similarly saw these government odds lead the PM polling two weeks ago when Miliband started to build a lead, which may suggest further shifts in favour of Conservatives as Labour has campaigned rather vocally recently over making no deal with SNP, and the odds of a minority Labour government have fallen.” “As the constituency markets have started to deepen, we are also seeing more two-way shifts in the trends there between Labour and Conservative seats, but more of the marginal seats still seem to be leaning in favour of the Tories.” “The marginal LibDem seats show little sign of momentum in favour of the coalition partner at this stage, while we have actually seen some shifts in favour of UKIP in betting markets which is at odds with much of the current polling where UKIP continues to see support drained off as they are seen as uncompetitive in races.” Apr 28,2015 OctaFX.Com News Updates Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker!