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OctaFX.Com - Copper weakens as China demand worry persists SINGAPORE (Reuters) - London copper edged lower on Monday as persistent concerns about sluggish demand in China took the momentum out of a three-day rally, but optimism on the global economy after upbeat U.S. jobs data is likely to cushion the price slide. Copper rallied about 2 percent on Friday, after better-than-expected U.S. labor market data boosted confidence in the recovery of the world's largest economy, and Greece's success with a debt swap deal eased fears about euro zone debt crisis for the time being. But the dim prospects of copper consumption in China, as reflected in multi-year high stockpiles in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange, kept investors wary. "Theoretically we are in the peak consumption season but it doesn't feel like it this year," said a Shanghai-based physical copper trader, "Factories are not in any rush to stockpile the material, as the overall economic situation has weakened." Prices below 58,000 yuan a tonne have attracted buying, but the current level was not at all attractive, he added. China, the world's top consumer of raw materials including copper, has cut its 2012 growth target to an eight-year low of 7.5 percent, dampening hopes that its appetite for these materials would continue to expand rapidly. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange lost 0.3 percent to $8,461 a tonne by 0300 GMT, reversing course after three sessions of consecutive rise. The most-traded June copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange edged up 0.3 percent to 60,700 yuan ($9,600)a tonne. Mar 12, 2012 03:17 OctaFX.Com News Updates

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OctaFX.Com - British Pound At Risk Amid Weakening Labor Market, Slowing Trade Fundamental Forecast for British Pound: Neutral The British Pound pared the sharp selloff from Friday to maintain the range carried over from the previous month, and the sterling should continue to track sideways in the following week as market participants weigh the outlook for monetary policy. Indeed the Bank of England refrained from releasing a policy statement after the central bank kept the benchmark interest rate at 0.50% while maintain its asset purchase program at GBP 325B, and we may see the GBPUSD works its way back towards the top of the range as the exchange rate continues to hold above the February low (1.5644). As market participants look forward to the BoE Minutes due out on March 21, the range-bound price action could ultimately lead to another run at 1.6000, but we may see the sterling struggle to hold its ground next week as the economic docket is expected to highlight a slowing recovery for the U.K. Indeed, fears of a double-dip recession may resurface amid the ongoing weakness in the labor market paired with the slowdown in global trade, and we may see the British Pound quickly give back the advance from earlier this year as currency traders see scope for more quantitative easing in 2012. As the fundamental outlook for Britain remains clouded with high uncertainty, the policy statement could foreshadow a growing rift within the Monetary Policy Committee, but we may see Governor Mervyn King scale back his dovish tone for monetary policy as BoE officials talk down the risk of undershooting the 2% target for inflation. As BoE officials expect to see a stronger recovery later this year, the MPC may see scope to conclude its easing cycle in 2012, and the central bank may lay the foundation to start normalizing monetary policy in the following year as growth and inflation picks up. As the GBPUSD clears the 50-Day SMA (1.5677), a slew of dismal developments coming out of the U.K. could spark a bearish breakdown in the exchange rate, and we may see the pair work its way back towards the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 low to high around 1.5300 as it searches for support. However, as long as the February low (1.5644) holds up, we should see the pair track sideways ahead of the BoE Minutes, and we may see the sterling move against its major counterparts should the central bank talk down speculation for additional asset purchases. – DS Mar 10, 2012 00:34 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Euro holds gains on Greek relief; yen slips SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The euro dipped on Friday but held on to the bulk of the previous day's gains after Greece moved closer to securing fresh funds needed to avoid a messy debt default. The single currency eased 0.1 percent to $1.3267 after rallying about 1 percent on Thursday, its losses limited after Greece successfully closed its bond swap offer to private creditors. "The euro has reacted positively to the removal of near-term anxiety (over Greece)," said a trader for a major Japanese bank in Singapore, adding that the ECB's comments on inflation the previous day were also lending the single currency support. The ECB left interest rates unchanged at 1 percent on Thursday but gave a surprise warning on inflation, suggesting further policy easing was unlikely. The yen dipped to a 9-1/2 month low versus the dollar of 81.899 yen on trading platform EBS at one point, pressured by yen-selling by Japanese importers and stop-loss selling, traders said. The positive news on Greece was another factor that weighed on the yen, a safe haven currency that tends to come under pressure when investors' risk tolerance increases. The dollar last stood at 81.80 yen, up 0.3 percent from late U.S. trade on Thursday. Commodity currencies were steady to firmer with the Australian dollar holding flat at $1.0644 after having risen around 0.6 percent on Thursday, while the New Zealand dollar rose 0.2 percent to $0.8263. With Greece's debt swap headed for success, analysts said they expected investors' appetite for risky assets to hold firm in the near term. Such positive risk sentiment can weigh on funding currencies including the dollar and the yen, while supporting currencies leveraged to global growth like the Australian dollar. To be sure, the exact take-up of Greece's debt swap was unknown and it was not yet clear whether Greece could avoid activating collective action clauses (CAC), which would enforce the debt exchange on recalcitrant holdouts. If they are, that could trigger payouts on credit default swaps (CDS) that some investors hold on Greece's bonds. Rob Ryan, FX strategist for BNP Paribas in Singapore, said the take-up for Greece's debt swap may not be high enough for Greece to avoid activating the enforcement clauses, but added that market players were likely prepared for that possibility. "We think that they're not going to have the 90 plus percent that they want and that they will have to activate the CAC," Ryan said. "That's what we assume is going to happen, and in fact there's an argument now that says that if it's not triggered, there's going to be worries about who bought CDS as insurance and now finds that the insurance is useless," he said. "So at this stage, it may be less damaging to trigger the CACs and therefore the credit default (swaps)," Ryan said. Preliminary results of Greece's bond swap offer are expected to be announced officially at 0600 GMT, before a conference call with euro zone finance ministers in the afternoon. U.S. jobs data due late on Friday will also be closely watched, especially after the Wall Street Journal reported earlier in the week that Federal Reserve officials were considering sterilized quantitative easing to further help the economic recovery. An outcome that bolsters such expectations could be the dollar's undoing. "Our long-term view is still that the EUR/USD will be higher and the relative hawkishness of comments from ECB President Mario Draghi is a reminder that at its heart, the ECB 'wants' to normalize policy while Ben Bernanke 'wants' to buy more protection against disaster," said Kit Juckes, strategist at Societe Generale. Mar 09, 2012 05:17 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Japanese Yen Uninspired by Eco Watchers Survey Release Traders’ response to the Eco Watchers Survey was muted as a slight shortfall of expectations leads to no major portfolio changes THE TAKEAWAY: Eco Watchers Survey Slightly Below Expectations > Traders Unfazed by Small Deviation from Forecast > USDJPY Trades Sideways Data released by the Japanese Economic and Social Research Institute showed that business confidence rose in the month of February among workers in cyclical market sectors. The Eco Watchers Survey current index rose to 45.9 from 44.1, falling slightly short of analysts’ expectations of 46. The outlook index rose to 50.1 from 47.1. Traders had already priced in their expectations regarding the figures, so the data’s release led to no major portfolio rebalancing. The slight shortfall of the current index did not faze the markets. The USDJPY maintained its trendless trading. Mar 08, 2012 05:18 OctaFX.Com News Updates

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OctaFX.Com - Euro rises vs dollar ahead of Greek bond swap Euro rises vs dollar ahead of Greek bond swap Euro turns higher against the dollar as traders wait for results from Greek bond swap deal NEW YORK (AP) -- The euro turned higher against the dollar as more investors agreed to participate in Greece's debt restructuring deal. Greece needs to complete the bond swap to get its second package of bailout funds and avoid default. Investors who agree to participate will have to trade their Greek government bonds for new ones with lower value and lower returns. Private investors who own nearly half of Greece's debt have already committed to the swap. The rest have until Thursday to do so. Traders are still cautious that not enough bondholders will participate, which is keeping the euro from rising higher against the dollar. The euro rose to $1.3148 in midday trading Wednesday from $1.3110 Tuesday. In other trading, the British pound rose to $1.5741 from $1.5711. The dollar fell to 0.9168 Swiss franc from 0.9190 Swiss franc and to 99.96 Canadian cents from 1.0021 Canadian dollar. Mar 07, 2012 17:30

Euro rises but vulnerable to Greece uncertainty LONDON (Reuters) - The euro recovered from a three-week low against the dollar on Wednesday but was vulnerable to further losses on uncertainty about whether Greece would win sufficient support for a debt restructuring. A clutch of Greek pension funds and some foreign investors are holding back on a bond swap deal which would enable Greece to meet a debt repayment on March 20, sparking concerns about a chaotic default if participation is low. Given the uncertainty, gains in the single currency were expected to be limited. Analysts and traders said the market was pricing in an assumption that the debt deal would be agreed, leaving scope for disappointment. Greek private creditors have until late Thursday to say whether they will take part. Further hints of hesitance could see the euro retest Tuesday's three-week low at $1.3103. "There's a negative skew for the euro because most of the good news is priced in terms of getting an agreement on private sector involvement," said Carl Hammer, chief currency strategist at SEB in Stockholm. "If it is passed the bounce in the euro would be short-lived." SEB sees the euro at $1.30 by the end of March, though this assumes the debt restructuring goes through. The euro was up 0.2 percent at $1.3136, with traders citing Middle East and corporate buying as well as talk of reported Asian sovereign bids around $1.3100. Reported offers below $1.3175 may cap its rise, however. Greece aims to persuade 90 percent of creditors to take part in the bond swap. With two-thirds acceptance or more, however, it may be able to trigger collective action clauses to force bondholders to accept losses. "The Greek PSI (bond swap) deal might well go through ... But beyond that the outlook for the euro is still weak," said Melinda Burgess, currency strategist at RBS. She said the psychological $1.30 level was likely to provide strong support and could slow the euro's decline. Once below there, however, it could move lower "fairly rapidly." RBS forecasts the euro to fall to $1.26 by the end of this month. Others said the euro had short-term chart support around $1.31, including the cloud top on daily Ichimoku charts at $1.3097 and the 76.4 percent retracement of its rally in mid- to late February at $1.3095. GROWTH WORRIES Apart from Greece, Chinese inflation and U.S. jobs data on Friday and a European Central Bank policy meeting on Thursday would set the tone for markets, traders said. China this week cut its growth target to its lowest level in eight years and Brazil announced a disappointing economic performance for 2011, raising doubts that emerging market powerhouses can offset weak growth in the advanced economies. The higher-yielding and growth-linked Australian dollar was up 0.1 percent at $1.0565, having earlier hit a six-week low of $1.0508 after disappointing Australian economic growth data. It was also vulnerable as Greece concerns prompted investors to cut exposure to risky assets. The Aussie has shed some 3 U.S. cents since hitting a seven-month high of $1.0857 last week. More losses could see it fall towards $1.0350, analysts said. The U.S. dollar was down 0.1 percent at 80.75 yen as investors unwound recent bearish positions placed on the Japanese currency. It held above support at 80.50 yen, the 23.6 percent retracement of its February rally. The euro pulled further away from a recent high of 109.95 yen to trade up 0.1 percent at 106.12 yen. Mar 07, 2012 11:50 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Risk currencies on defensive on fresh Greece doubts TOKYO (Reuters) - Risk currencies were on the defensive while the Japanese yen held firm on Wednesday as doubts over whether Greece can pull together a bond swap deal with creditors prompted players to cut exposure to risky assets. Among the biggest casualties, the Australian dollar slid to a near six-week low against the U.S. dollar, while the country's growth in October-December also turned out to be lower than expected. A clutch of Greek pension funds and some foreign investors are holding back on the bond swap deal, raising fears that Greece may not secure a deal with private creditors to cut its mountainous debt by the Thursday deadline. A low participation in the bond swap plan, a key part of a bailout program to help Greece manage its wrecked finances and meet a debt repayment on March 20, could lead to the disorderly default policymakers have been toiling to avoid. "I think we are at a watershed now. If the Greek debt swap goes well and the U.S. job data points to continued recovery, then the market could return to the risk-on mood," said a trader at a Japanese bank. "But if Greece could not get the deal, then that would be a game changer," he added. The euro plumbed a three-week low at $1.3103 on EBS late on Tuesday, but has managed to stay above solid supports around $1.31, including the cloud top of daily Ichimoku charts at $1.3097 and the 76.4 percent retracement of its rally in mid to late February at $1.3095. It bounced back in Asia to around $1.3142, up 0.2 percent from late U.S. levels as the disappointing Australian data prompted unwinding of short positions against the Aussie, a popular trade this year. The euro rose 0.2 percent to A$1.2460. It hit a record low around $1.2124 last month as investors sold the euro for the Aussie on the view that a high-yielding Aussie will benefit from a massive fund injection from the European Central Bank. The Aussie fell to a six-week low against the U.S. dollar after disappointing Australian GDP data, shedding some 3 U.S. cents from a seven-month high set just last week. The Aussie touched a low of $1.0508, briefly breaking below a major support of $1.0525, before paring losses to fetch $1.0550. A clean break of $1.0525 could pave the way for a move to the $1.0370-00 major pivot, traders said. GROWTH WORRIES Apart from Greece, there are other risk events ahead, not least closely watched Chinese inflation and U.S. jobs data on Friday. China cut its growth target to the lowest level in eight years and Brazil announced a disappointing economic performance for 2011, raising doubts on the rosy scenario that emerging market powerhouses will offset weak growth in the advanced economies. Nervous investors unwound some of the recent bearish positions placed on the Japanese currency, helping the yen firm across the board. The dollar fell as low as 80.56 yen, well down from a nine-month peak of 81.87 set earlier this month, although it handily held above a key support from 23.6 percent of its February rally at 80.50. "Since the yen had been sold sharply recently, there is room for more adjustment. But I do think there's pretty strong dollar demand at around 80 yen," said Sumino Kamei, senior currency analyst at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ. Traders said a break above 81.60 is now needed to reset the upwards momentum for dollar/yen and put 82.20 back in focus. The euro also pulled further away from a recent high of 109.95 yen to stand at 106.25 yen. Renewed pressure on the single currency saw the dollar rise 0.7 percent against a basket of major currencies on Tuesday to its highest since Feb 16. The dollar index <.DXY> stood at 79.68 in Asia, not far from Tuesday's high of 79.867, and it now eyes a test of a very thin cloud on daily Ichimoku charts, a break above which could be considered as a major bull sign. On Wednesday, the bottom of the cloud comes at 79.854 and the top at 79.867, which means the index needs to rise above Tuesday's high to break above the cloud. Mar 07, 2012 03:23 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Euro, Aussie dollar hit by growth, Greece worries LONDON (Reuters) - The euro slipped to a two-week low versus the dollar and higher-yielders like the Australian dollar fell on Tuesday on worries over euro zone debt and the global economy, pushing investors towards the safety of the yen and the dollar. Concerns about whether Greece would be able to complete a major debt restructuring deal with private sector creditors before Thursday knocked the euro, which was vulnerable to more falls before that deadline. This weighed on riskier assets, causing the Australian and New Zealand dollars to extend losses begun on Monday when China announced its lowest annual growth target in eight years. "The risk reward is for people who are long equities, long Australian dollar and short yen to cut those positions," said Nick Beecroft, senior markets consultant at Saxo Bank, adding that equities were poised to fall after "an extraordinary run." "The euro has been remarkably resilient, but I think we've seen the top of the range for the next few weeks and there are mines out there that could push it back below $1.30." The euro was down 0.5 percent at $1.3147, having dropped to around $1.3130, its weakest since February 17, after triggering sell orders on the break of Monday's $1.3160 low. Technical support was expected from the 55-day moving average around $1.3071. Concerns about a faltering euro zone economy helped push the euro down 1 percent on the day against the yen. Revised GDP data confirmed the euro zone economy looked set for recession after contracting in the fourth quarter of 2011. This followed purchasing manager surveys on Monday which highlighted a weak outlook for the region. Greece and its creditors are in the final stages of talks aimed at a deal that would cancel more than 100 billion euros of its private sector debts - a key part of a 130 billion euros bailout, the second rescue Athens has required. "Indications the bond swap will succeed are modest EUR positive, while any clear evidence it will not will be dramatically negative," BNP Paribas said in a note. AUSSIE FALLS Investors used China's decision to cut its growth target to 7.5 percent as an excuse to take profits on long positions in equities, commodities like copper and currencies linked to global growth. "We're in risk-off mode at the moment and it's starting to gather momentum. Sentiment has turned towards China which has unnerved people generally," said Gavin Friend, FX strategist at National Australia Bank. The Aussie fell around 0.8 percent to $1.0573, its lowest in a month, extending falls after breaking below stop loss sell orders around $1.0600 and the February 23 low of $1.0597. It also shed more than 1 percent versus the yen. A Reserve Bank of Australia decision to keep rates on hold but leave the door open for a cut should the economy weaken materially also weighed on the Australian dollar, which analysts said may have further to fall. "A decisive break through $1.0600 points to a deeper pullback as this potentially completes a double top, warning of a return to the $1.0400/50 area before we look for a base," said Phil Roberts, technical analyst at Barclays Capital. The New Zealand dollar also lost more than 1 percent to hit a near 6-week low of $0.8122. The low-yielding yen outperformed against the dollar, which retreated after failing for a second time to break above a nine-month high of 81.86 yen. It was last at 81.06 yen, down 0.4 percent on the day. The dollar has gained nearly 7 percent versus the yen since late January, helped by a surprise Bank of Japan easing and a record Japanese trade deficit. The dollar index <.DXY> was up around 0.5 percent on the day at 79.664 after hitting a 2-1/2 week high of 79.739. Mar 06, 2012 13:10 OctaFX.Com News Updates

OctaFX.Com - Australian Dollar Sold as Dovish RBA Cuts Hopes for Future Rate Hike Australian Dollar Sold as Dovish RBA Cuts Hopes for Future Rate Hike The Aussie fell as traders were forced reexamine their positions after the RBA indicated it was not shy toward interest rate easing in the event market conditions warranted such a move. THE TAKEAWAY: Reserve Bank of Australia Maintains Cash Rate at 4.25% > Dovish Rhetoric Cuts Hope for Traders Anticipating Future Rate Hike > AUDUSD Drops as Low as $1.061 The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to hold its key interest rate unchanged at 4.25 percent. Though the RBA’s action was no surprise to traders, the accompanying statement was markedly dovish and placed the AUDUSD under significant selling pressure. The central bank’s Board of Governors cited a soft labor market, falling inflation rates, and carbon price effects as major prompts for its decision. Forecasting improving productivity growth over the next few months, the RBA judged that maintaining the cash rate at 4.25 percent was “appropriate for the moment.” However, the statement noted that if the country’s demand conditions were to decline, then the Board would move to foster economic growth by easing its monetary policy on the basis of cutting interest rates. Traders expected that the cash rate would remain at 4.25 percent, but the RBA’s dovish rhetoric led many to allocate their portfolios away from the Aussie dollar. Bearish traders pushed the AUDUSD exchange down as low as $1.061. Mar 06, 2012 04:09

OctaFX.Com News Updates - Gold slips as euro zone worries lift dollar Gold slips as euro zone worries lift dollar LONDON (Reuters) - Gold slipped on Monday as concerns over Greece's progress on completing a debt restructuring deal and poor euro zone data lifted the dollar versus the euro, and as appetite for assets seen as higher risk, like commodities, suffered after China set its lowest annual growth target in eight years. Spot gold hit a low of $1,694.24 an ounce and was down 0.5 percent at $1,702.86 an ounce at 1259 GMT, while U.S. gold futures for April delivery were down $5.30 an ounce at $1,704.50. Spot prices fell 3.9 percent last week, their worst weekly performance since mid-December, after Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke gave no further hints, in a key speech, of a third round of quantitative easing in the United States. "Markets had really hoped for QE3, and that did create a plunge for gold, because all of a sudden traders and investors abandoned risky assets, we've seen the U.S. dollar strengthening and stock markets (easing)," said Peter Fertig, a consultant at Quantitative Commodity Research. Although extreme risk aversion was a key factor lifting gold last year at a time when the dollar was strengthening, it has since reestablished its usual inverse relationship to the U.S. unit as investor appetite for the dollar as a safe haven outweighed that for gold, and as panic in the markets subsided. From a technical perspective, analysts said gold is vulnerable to further losses after last week's rout, particularly if prices break through $1,690 an ounce. Gains in the dollar, which make commodities priced in the U.S. currency more expensive for holders of other currencies, are pressuring the metal. The U.S. unit strengthened as the euro and growth-linked currencies fell on Monday, undermined by concerns over Greece's progress on completing a huge debt restructuring deal and poor euro zone economic data, although dealers said the dollar was ripe for some profit-taking. European shares fell, while German Bund futures hit record highs after euro zone services sector PMI data missed expectations and as nerves grew before a Thursday deadline for investors to voluntarily take part in Greece's debt swap deal. A signal from China that it would accept a slower growth rate increased risk aversion. Although immediate wider market pressures and near-term technical factors spell short-term weakness in gold, in the longer run it remains firmly underpinned by the United States' ultra loose monetary policy, portfolio diversification, and strong physical demand from Asia, analysts said. "Negative real interest rates and accommodative monetary policy were and remain the key drivers of investment demand," Morgan Stanley said in a note. "Bernanke's testimony did nothing to remove this benefit." "Under these circumstances, QE3 would have been icing on the cake for the monetary easing trade, but not the fundamental driver of bullish investor positioning," it added. Mar 05, 2012 13:09

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Dollar firms as euro, yen struggle SYDNEY (Reuters) - The dollar touched a fresh two-week high against a basket of major currencies in Asia on Monday, benefiting by default as both the euro and yen appeared to be used as funding currencies to buy higher yielding assets. Since the European Central Bank second injection of around half a trillion euros of cheap three-year funds last week and a surprise policy easing by the Bank of Japan a few weeks ago, both currencies have come under pressure. That has seen the dollar climb to its best level since mid-February, recovering from a slide to a three-month trough. The dollar index <.DXY> last stood at 79.459, having reached a peak of 79.500. BNP Paribas analysts said the theme at play was the notion that hedge funds and real money accounts were switching their allegiances with regards to favoured funding currencies, from the U.S. dollar to the euro and to a lesser extent the yen. Hard data showed currency speculators have turned short on the yen for the first time since at least September, according to latest figures from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. "We see further U.S. dollar strength versus the euro, yen and sterling," Barclays Capital analysts wrote in a report. "The main risks to our cautiously constructive outlook continue to be Europe, weaker-than-expected Chinese data and higher oil prices. We continue to like Canadian dollar and Mexican peso, but are less confident about a further rally in the Australian dollar in the near term." The euro bought $1.3195 on Monday, well down from last week's high of $1.3485. Support is seen around $1.3170, the 61.8 percent retracement of the Feb 16-24 rally from $1.2973 to $1.3486. Not helping the single currency, Spain on Friday set itself a softer budget target for 2012 than originally agreed under the euro zone's austerity drive, putting a question mark over the credibility of the European Union's new fiscal pact. Comments from the Austrian Chancellor that Greece's second bailout may prove insufficient and a topping up of the euro zone's permanent bailout fund cannot be ruled out, also reminded investors that Europe's debt crisis was far from over. The euro zone will decide whether to increase its debt crisis firewall before the end of March, probably at an informal gathering in Copenhagen set for March 30/31. Against the yen, the dollar fetched 81.76, not far off a nine-month peak of 81.86 set Friday. Traders said the weekly close above a major retracement level at 81.60-65 was positive. The next major hurdle is seen at the 100-week moving average around 82.20. While the G3 currencies appeared to be playing the funding-currency musical chairs, commodity currencies remained well supported, albeit vulnerable to bouts of profit taking. Suffering one such episode, the Australian dollar fell to $1.0737, but was still close to a seven-month peak of $1.0857 hit last week. The Canadian dollar was also just off a 5- month high. The focus in Asia is the HSBC China Services PMI, which provides a snapshot of conditions in businesses from restaurants to banks in the world's second biggest economy. The data is due out at 0230 GMT. In Europe, markets are awaiting the latest business survey on the euro zone's private sector economy. Mar 04, 2012 23:27

Australian Dollar at Risk as Global Growth Fears Return to Spotlight Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar: Bearish A week of heavy event risk has established a broadly negative environment for risk appetite, threatening to undermine the sentiment-sensitive Australian Dollar by extension. The first scene-setting development was marked by the second 3-year ECB LTRO operation, where the central bank allocated just over €529 billion to EU financial institutions. This brought the total cash war-chest available to lenders to offset the damage from a possible default of a Eurozone member state to about €1 trillion, enough to prevent a blow-up in Greece, Portugal and Spain from turning into a wider credit squeeze. Next, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke tellingly said that the improvement in US labor-market conditions has been “more rapid” than anticipated while conspicuously omitting any mention of further stimulus, which makers took to mean a QE3 program would probably not materialize. Neither of these developments can be called overtly negative for sentiment. On the contrary, a downgrade in the threat posed by the Eurozone debt crisis to the broader markets is decidedly good news. As for the Fed, while the markets were disappointed with the likely dismissal of further easing, investors’ spirits were quick to recover. This makes sense: opting out of additional stimulus is not necessarily bad news if the economy is able to continue to recover on its own, which recent data flow suggests is increasingly likely to be the case. Rather, what these outcomes produced was broad-based resolution to the major sources of uncertainty in the global economic outlook, cementing in place a generally defined outlook for global growth in 2012. With the Armageddon-level scenario in Europe dismissed at least for now and the US recovery left to its own devices, the markets can generally return to monitoring familiar fundamental news-flow to get their bearings. It is this that sets the stage for the return of downward pressure on risky assets as the spotlight turns to the consensus outlook for GDP growth, which continues to call for a slowdown at the global level this year. With the Australian Dollar still heavily correlated with the S&P 500 – the benchmark gauge for sentiment trends – the high-yielding currency can be expected to follow shares lower in such an environment. On the domestic fundamental calendar, the RBA interest rate decision is in focus but fireworks following the outcome appear unlikely. Central bank chief Glenn Stevens made it abundantly clear over recent weeks that monetary policy is in neutral for the time being, arguing that absent unforeseen developments growth and inflation are expected to fall close to long-term trend levels over the medium term. At the very least, similar rhetoric is likely to hold up for a several months from here as the RBA evaluates developing trends in leading economic data. The markets appear in agreement, with data compiled by Credit Suisse suggesting traders are pricing in a mere 15 percent chance of a rate cut this time around. Big-ticket data releases are also expected to print in relatively neutral territory. The annual GDP growth rate is expected to register at 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter, a hair slower than the 2.5 percent in the three months through September 2011 but not worryingly below the long-run average of 3 percent. Likewise, February’s job report is forecast to see the jobless rate tick narrowly higher to 5.3 percent, putting it squarely at the 10-year average and comfortably below the longer-term mean north of 7 percent. – IS Mar 03, 2012 04:22

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Yen slips broadly, nears 9-month low vs. dollar SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The yen slipped broadly on Friday and neared a recent nine-month low versus the dollar, retreating due to yen-selling by Japanese importers and as traders took aim at stop-loss levels. The dollar rose 0.4 percent against the yen to 81.44 yen, nearing a nine-month high of 81.661 yen hit earlier this week on trading platform EBS. The Japanese currency has taken a hit after the Bank of Japan's surprise monetary easing in February, while the dollar found some reprieve this week after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke stopped short of signaling more stimulus. The dollar is likely to stay firm versus the yen in the near term, said Satoshi Okagawa, senior global markets analyst for Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp in Singapore. "As you can see in yen crosses for example, there is now a strong trend of betting that market strains will calm down, and U.S. economic data has been recovering to some extent as well," Okagawa said. The low-yielding yen tends to come under pressure when market optimism about the outlook for global economic growth improves. That can trigger more risk-taking among investors and increase the popularity of carry trades, in which investors sell low-yielding currencies against higher-yielding currencies. Higher-yielding currencies such as the Australian dollar and Brazil's real may head higher against the yen, Okagawa said. While the dollar may not see a speedy rise versus the yen, it is hard to bet on the downside at this point, he added. Traders said the dollar's rise versus the yen on Friday gained additional momentum after stop-loss bids were triggered near 81.40 yen, with more stops said to be lurking at levels above the nine-month peak hit earlier this week. In addition, dollar-buying by Japanese importers helped support the greenback against the yen, said a trader for a major Japanese bank in Tokyo. The euro and the Australian dollar also pushed higher against the yen, with the euro rising 0.3 percent to 108.38 yen and the Australian dollar hitting its highest level since May 2011 of 87.97 yen at one point. News that Japanese brewer Asahi <2502.T> is emerging as a front-runner to buy eastern European brewer StarBev, helped lend support to the euro versus the yen, traders said. EURO Against the dollar, the euro held steady at $1.3306. The single currency inched up 0.1 percent versus the Australian dollar to A$1.2320, after having touched a 1-1/2 week low around A$1.2300 at one point on Friday. Analysts said the European Central Bank's massive cash injection this week (LTRO) has made it more attractive to use the euro as a funding currency to buy higher yielding assets. "Risk-on positioning could continue to be funded by short euro positions following the LTRO," said BNP Paribas. Market players believe the cash bonanza from the ECB will ease bank funding strains and support the euro zone's sovereign bond market. That, in turn, could help spur more risk-taking among investors. Still, while the ECB's LTRO is positive for high-yielding currencies and emerging market currencies against the euro, one factor that could limit their gains is market positioning, said Olivier Desbarres, head of Asia-Pacific FX strategy for Barclays Capital in Singapore. Recent price action shows that market players are not aggressively pushing the euro lower versus emerging market currencies, he said. For example, the euro is still within ranges seen since the start of the year against currencies such as Brazil's real and the Singapore dollar. This may be partly because emerging market currencies have already seen a decent rally year-to-date against the euro, and may also be a result of intervention by emerging market central banks to stem the pace of appreciation in their currencies, Desbarres said. In addition, if it becomes clear that the recent rise in oil prices is tempering global economic growth, that may eventually weigh on high-yielding currencies and emerging market currencies. "I'm curious to know, how will the market react to signs that high oil prices are starting to shave a little bit of that feel-good factor and shave a little bit of that global growth momentum that we've seen in the past few months," Desbarres said.

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Euro unemployment hits new high in January Euro unemployment hits 10.7 percent in January, new high since euro established in 1999 LONDON (AP) -- Mass unemployment in Greece and Spain combined to push the jobless rate across the 17-country eurozone up to its highest rate since the euro was established in 1999, official figures showed Thursday The rise in the eurozone unemployment rate to 10.7 percent, reported by Eurostat, the European Union's statistics office, was unexpected and is likely to trigger renewed concerns over the outlook for the wider economy. If unemployment — and the accompanying fear of unemployment — is rising, consumers may rein in their spending. This could further dent an already-contracting eurozone economy. Consumers' appetite to open their wallets will likely be further constrained by the accompanying news that inflation in the eurozone unexpectedly also rose in February to 2.7 percent from the previous month's 2.6 percent. The markets had been pricing in no change from January, and the increase takes inflation further above the European Central Bank's target of keeping price rises at just below 2 percent. Inflation has been above target for 15 months now. "This is particularly bad news for consumers as they are not only facing high and rising unemployment but also still squeezed purchasing power," said Howard Archer, chief European economist at IHS Global Insight. "It had been hoped that eurozone consumer price inflation would be heading down markedly by now but these hopes are being scuppered by high oil prices." In recent weeks, oil prices have edged up to nine-month highs on the back of brighter economic news out of the U.S., the world's largest economy, and ongoing tensions over Iran's nuclear plans. Without the recent increase, analysts reckon inflation would be much closer to target. Since the ECB's primary role is maintain its measure of price stability, persistently-high inflation has reined in market expectations of any further interest rate reductions any time soon. Early this year, there had been a growing consensus that the ECB would push its benchmark interest rate below 1 percent for the first time ever. The ECB holds its monthly policy meeting next week and all expectations are that it will keep its benchmark rate unchanged at the record low of 1 percent, especially after its massive injection of cash into the banking system on Wednesday. "The latest eurozone data revealed a combination of stubborn inflation and rising unemployment at the start of the year, suggesting that the recent rebound in consumer sentiment may falter before long," said Ben May, European economist at Capital Economics. The figures come as EU leaders gather in Brussels to discuss a strategy to boost economic growth. Eight of the 17 countries in the eurozone are, according to the European Commission, are expected to contract during the first three months of 2011. Those sort of projections aren't likely to do much to help turn round the unemployment rate in the eurozone, which is at alarming levels in some countries. The consensus in the markets was for the January rate to remain unchanged at December's previously reported rate of 10.4 percent. Instead, December's rate was instead revised upward to 10.6 percent. Europe's unemployment rate has been steadily ticking up all year as the wider economy wanes in the face of a protracted debt crisis that's meant widespread austerity measures being pursued across the single currency zone. The eurozone economy contracted by 0.3 percent in the final three months, though recent indicators have suggested that it may avoid a recession — defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Spain had the highest unemployment rate in the eurozone at 23.3 percent in January, while Greece's had edged up to 19.9 percent in December, the last available figures for the debt-ridden country. Mar 01, 2012 10:22 OctaFX is proud to offer top-notch service level to its customers. Please stay tuned for the news and updates from OctaFX!

Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar Jump on Rising Chinese PMI Both the currencies drove upward as better-than-expected Chinese Purchasing Managers Index appears to forecast a warming importer of Aussie and Kiwi goods. THE TAKEAWAY: Chinese Purchasing Managers Index Rises to 51.0 from 50.5 > Increase Beats Expectations, but Trader Response Is Muted > AUDUSD, NZDUSD Steam On Upwards Data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing shows an unexpected increase in the country’s Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) in the month of February. The PMI index rose to 51.0 from 50.5, topping analysts’ expectations of a bump up to 50.8. The increase indicates that the Chinese manufacturing sector is growing at a faster rate than it was in January. The unanticipated Chinese PMI boost added onto buying pressure for both the AUDUSD and NZDUSD. Both currency pairs had been trending upward before the release, and the better-than-expected data fed the positive trends. The rising index suggests that the Chinese market will be more receptive to importing raw materials and intermediate goods from Australia and New Zealand. In addition, there is also the encouragement to risk taking through speculative interests and carry trade. Mar 01, 2012 01:25 OctaFX is proud to offer top-notch service level to its customers. Please stay tuned for the news and updates from OctaFX!

ECB to launch 2nd round of 3-year bank loans FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) -- The European Central Bank is preparing to make a second round of large-scale three-year loans to the continent's banks — a key tool in its efforts to dampen the eurozone debt crisis. Banks snapped up euro489 billion ($657 billion) in cheap credit when the ECB made its first round of such loans in December. As was the case then, there's no limit on the amount of money the central bank is offering Wednesday. The loans have helped lower borrowing costs for Italy and Spain because some banks have used the money to buy those countries' bonds. The loans also are aimed at making sure banks have plenty of ready money so they don't reduce credit to businesses and consumers. That could weaken a eurozone economy that already shrank 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter. Feb 29, 2012 07:58 more OctaFX is proud to offer top-notch service level to its customers. Please stay tuned for the news and updates from OctaFX!

NZD/USD Classical Technical Report 02.29 NZD/USD: After trading well into overbought territory, daily studies are finally starting to roll over to warn of a near-term top and potential bearish reversal. Look for a break back below 0.8250 to confirm reversal prospects and open downside acceleration towards the 0.8000 area. A daily close back above 0.8550 however negates and gives reason for pause. Feb 29, 2012 07:51 more OctaFX is proud to offer top-notch service level to its customers. Please stay tuned for the news and updates from OctaFX!

EURUSD Classical Technical Report 02.29 EUR/USD: The latest break and daily close above 1.3325 ends a recent bout of multi-session consolidation and now opens the door for the next upside extension towards the 1.3600-1.3700 area over the coming days. While our broader outlook remains aggressively bearish with a downside target by 1.2000 in 2012, the 2012 correction within the broader downtrend off of the 2008 record highs is still in play, and shows potential for additional gains. Still, we prefer to remain sidelined as our bearish bias has us looking for opportunities to sell rather than attempting to buy into a corrective rally within a broader downtrend. We would also not rule out the possibility for a topside failure ahead of 1.3600-1.3700, but given the latest break, the risk for additional gains seems like a very real possibility that needs to be considered and anticipated. Back under 1.3350 will be required at a minimum to alleviate immediate topside pressures. Feb 29, 2012 07:58 more OctaFX is proud to offer top-notch service level to its customers. Please stay tuned for the news and updates from OctaFX!

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