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OctaFX.Com -Merkel says euro zone must stick to reform pledges BERLIN (Reuters) - German Chancellor Angela Merkel reaffirmed on Wednesday that the euro zone must stick to previously agreed reforms on budget discipline. Merkel is facing increased calls in the crisis-stricken euro zone to ease up on tough fiscal measures that have deepened a recession in peripheral countries such as Greece and to make reviving economic growth a bigger political priority. "We both concur that in the euro zone we must stick to the program and the rules that have been agreed," Merkel told a joint news conference with Slovenia's Prime Minister Janez Jansa. Echoing Merkel's tough line, Jansa said: "There is no 'either-or' when it comes to stability or economic growth. ... Such growth should not lead to higher public debts, which would not be good for future generations." Slovenia is a member of the euro zone. May 09, 2012 12:01 OctaFX.Com News Updates

OctaFx - Euro clouded by Greece and Spain worry LONDON (Reuters) - The euro fell close to a recent three-month low versus the dollar on Wednesday and the safe haven yen rose broadly amid worries over the impact on the euro zone stemming from political turmoil in Greece and the fragility of Spain's banking sector. The euro remained under widespread pressure after the leader of Greece's Left Coalition party said on Tuesday that the country's commitment to a European Union/International Monetary Fund rescue deal had become null and void. Greece's two main pro-bailout parties failed to win a majority in weekend elections, leaving questions over the country's ability to avert bankruptcy and stay in the euro. Added to instability in Greece, French President-elect Francois Hollande has advocated an approach to tackling the debt crisis centered more on growth, which may create tensions with Germany's insistence on fiscal austerity. Wednesday's moves suggest the political uncertainty is causing a broader retreat from risky assets. The New Zealand and Australian dollars, both sensitive to shifts in investor risk appetite, hit four-month lows versus the U.S. dollar. "We still think the euro will head lower with $1.2950 the level to break in the near-term," said Lauren Rosborough, Senior FX strategist at Societe Generale, who have a medium-term target of $1.2500. The euro fell 0.2 percent to $1.2980, closing in on a three-month low near $1.2955 touched on Monday. Technical analysts said the euro had found support on Monday around the 61.8 percent retracement of the it's 2012 rally at $1.2953. The euro could fall towards $1.28-$1.29 over the next few weeks, although its drop is expected to be gradual given many investors are already short of the common currency, market players said. Options traders said the euro may receive some support because of potential demand for euros related to option barriers at $1.2950 and below. The existence of such barriers means options traders might step in to buy the euro if the currency dips close to those levels. Overall however the path for the euro was likely to be down. Added to the threat of a Greek exit from the euro, the bleak outlook for Spain's troubled banking sector continued to spook bond investors, pushing yields on Spanish 10-year bonds back above six percent on Wednesday. (GVD/EUR) "In the next four weeks we should know who is controlling Greece, whether or not it runs out of money or chooses to adhere to its bailout terms and how the Spanish government plans to sort out its banking sector," said Kathleen Brooks, Research Director at FOREX.com. "There are high levels of market risk associated with all of these events, which we believe is euro negative." YEN IN DEMAND A souring in investor appetite for risk gave broad support to the low-yielding yen which tends to rise when investors look to park their money in safer assets. The euro was down 0.5 percent at 103.35 yen, while the Japanese currency climbed to a two-and-a-half month high versus the dollar of 79.61 yen on trading platform EBS. The dollar itself remained supported against a basket of currencies by its own status as a safe haven, with the dollar index (.DXY) up 0.2 percent at 79.943. The Australian dollar was down 0.5 percent to $1.0066, having touched a low of $1.0052 at one point, the lowest level in more than four months. The New Zealand dollar also touched a four-month low at $0.7842. The Australian dollar fell below 80.20 yen at one point, the lowest level since January. Implied option volatilities on Aussie/yen soared to a one-month high above 13 percent as market players scrambled to protect themselves against further declines in the Australian dollar. May 09, 2012 11:02 OctaFX.Com News Updates

OctaFX.Com - Greece pressures euro, investors seek safety LONDON (Reuters) - The euro neared a three-month low and safe-haven German bonds and the Japanese yen rose on Wednesday as political disarray in Greece and the rising costs of fixing Spain's banks fueled fears the euro zone debt crisis would take a sharp turn for the worse. The concerns over Europe added to worries about the impact of softer growth in the U.S. on the global economy to push down European shares. Wall Street was also poised to open lower (.N), oil prices were down for a sixth straight session and the commodity-linked Australian dollar hit new lows. Spanish 10-year bond yields climbed back above 6 percent - a point away from levels deemed unsustainable - and investors kept a wary eye on Athens, where efforts to form a government were expected to fail, putting its bailout deal in doubt and raising the possibility of Greece being forced out of the euro. "The sensitivity to political developments in Greece is largely a reflection that the probability of Greece exiting the euro, posing a significant threat to global financial stability, has increased," Lee Hardman, currency economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ said. The euro fell 0.2 percent to $1.2970, closing in on a three-month low near $1.2955 touched on Monday below the $1.30 to $1.35 range it has traded within for most of the year. "We still think the euro will head lower with $1.2950 the level to break in the near-term," said Lauren Rosborough, senior FX strategist at Societe Generale, who have a medium-term target of $1.2500. The Japanese currency was a big beneficiary of the weaker euro, climbing to a two-and-a-half month high versus the dollar of 79.61 yen as investors sought safety. The dollar itself remained supported against a basket of currencies by its own status as a safe haven, with the dollar index (.DXY) up 0.2 percent at 79.943. Some analysts argued fears of a Greek exit from the euro were overblown. Credit Suisse said while the probability of Greece leaving the euro had risen, the massive implications the move would have for the major nations within the 17-member currency bloc still made it unlikely. "We now put a 15 percent probability of Greece leaving the euro, up from a previous estimate of 5 percent," the bank's equity strategists said in a note. The key reason this probability remained low was that 70 percent of the country's debt was owned by the official sector, which includes the IMF, the European Central Bank and the EU. "If Greece left the Euro-area, then the default on sovereign debt would be worse than that if it stayed in the euro-area." SPANISH BANK DRAIN Added to the fears over Greece were worries about the cost of cleaning up the Spanish banking system after financial sources told Reuters the government would demand its banks raise around a further 35 billion euros ($45.48 billion) in provisions against loans in their property portfolios. The government and the banks in Spain are belatedly recognizing a multi-billion funding gap in the financial system linked to a 2008 property crash that has heightened fears the country may need an international bailout. The impact of the cash demand on Spanish banks sent the main euro zone bank index (.SX7E) down 3.3 percent, dragging down the FTSE Eurofirst (.FTEU3) index of top European shares by 1 percent to 1,007.80 points. While the escalation in concerns about the euro zone and its potential to be a further drag of global growth pushed the MSCI world equity index (.MIWD00000PUS) down 0.6 percent to 315.79 and near lows last seen in February. GERMAN DEBT GAINS In the debt markets the fragility of Spain's banking system saw Spanish 10-year government bond yields climb 16 basis points to 6.03 percent, and above the 6 percent mark that could see the rise in yields accelerate if the break is sustained. The cost of insuring Spain's debt against default also rose 19 basis points to 512 basis points. And with investors fleeing the peripheral euro zone debt markets the German debt market, already offering ultra-low yields, posted new records. The key 10-year German government bond set a record low yield of 1.524 percent and the German Bund futures contract hit an all-time high of 142.75. The government was able to capitalize on the safe haven demand by selling old four billion euros ($5.2 billion) of new five-year bonds with a record low coupon of 0.5 percent. News that exports and imports rose to record monthly levels in March was another signal that Europe's largest economy is fending off the euro zone debt crisis far better than others. In commodity markets Brent crude slipped towards $112 a barrel, on track for its longest losing streak in almost two years and U.S. crude was at $96.35, down 66 cents. The commodity-linked Australian dollar also fell 0.5 percent to $1.0066, having touched a low of $1.0052 at one point, the lowest level in more than four months. The New Zealand dollar also touched a 4-month low at $0.7842. The price of gold fell for a third day, touching a four-month low and all but wiping out its gains for the year. "With deflation becoming more of a risk in some parts of the world, like Europe, and the Fed less inclined to do another round of QE3, the inflation hedge argument isn't as strong as it was a couple of months ago," said James Shugg, senior economist at Westpac. ($1 = 0.7695 euros) May 09, 2012 10:10 OctaFX.Com News Updates

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OctaFx - Dollar gains vs euro, yen as U.S. data allays fears OctaFX.Com -Dollar gains vs euro, yen as U.S. data allays fears NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar rebounded from a one-month low against the euro and a 2-1/2-month trough versus the yen on Tuesday after a key barometer of the U.S. manufacturing sector showed unexpected strength last month, assuaging concerns the economy was slowing. The Institute for Supply Management's factory data bucked the trend of other recent data that suggested the economy was losing steam, prompting traders to rebuild long dollar bets that had grown stale as the economy's outlook weakened. "The view on the economy has swung from optimism to pessimism of late and this could bring us back to the middle," said Nick Bennenbroek, head of FX strategy for North America at Wells Fargo in New York. "ISM suggests there's no real reason to get too concerned about the path of the U.S. economy at this point." The ISM data, which showed the strongest rate of growth in 10 months, also downplayed recent speculation that the Federal Reserve will embark on a third round of bond buying to bolster the economy, lifting the appeal of the dollar. In afternoon New York trading, the euro fell 0.2 percent against the dollar to $1.3218, retreating from a four-week high at $1.3283 hit earlier in the day. "Once the euro rally lost momentum that led to massive interest in June euro $1.32 and $1.30 puts," said Matthew Schilling, a commodities brokers at RJO futures in Chicago. "Those puts are showing the highest volume that I have seen in a while." Investors who buy these puts expect the euro to fall below $1.30 or $1.32 before they expire on June 8. Trade was thin, however, with many of Europe's trading centers closed for the May Day holiday. Light volume was expected before Thursday's European Central Bank meeting, Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls report and weekend elections in Greece and France. Against the yen, the dollar recovered from a more than two-month low, rising to a session high at 80.29 yen. It was last at 80.24 yen, up 0.6 percent. Front-end volatility in dollar/yen remained under pressure despite the dollar hitting multi-month lows. On Tuesday, one- month volatility was at 8.35 percent, falling as low as 7.76. Volatility curves in dollar/yen, however, are positively sloping, with back-month options still higher than short-dated ones - usually reflecting expectations of some stress. Ultimately, however, analysts said long-end volatility should decline as well because it has become expensive for investors to be on such a constant state of alert, given time decay. The Australian dollar, meanwhile, was the day's biggest mover, falling sharply after the Reserve Bank of Australia slashed rates by a deeper-than-expected 50 basis points. The Aussie fell 0.9 percent to US$1.0334 and slid to a three-month low near 82 yen. "The RBA move means we no longer see a cut in June, but data in the coming months will be of particular focus in the wake of this rather unprecedented cut," TD Securities said in a research note. May 01, 2012 15:09 OctaFX.Com News Updates

OctaFx - Stronger U.S. data lift shares, dollar OctaFx - Stronger U.S. data lift shares, dollar NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks and the dollar rallied on Tuesday after data showed U.S. manufacturing grew in April at the strongest pace in 10 months, soothing recent worries about the economy. Safe-haven Treasuries prices fell, while gold retreated from two-week highs as the data dampened speculation the Federal Reserve would adopt fresh monetary easing measures to boost growth. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes soared 1 percent after the Institute for Supply Management said its index of national factory activity rose to 54.8 from 53.4 in March, exceeding expectations of 53.0. "The American economy is not as weak as some may perceive, and although it has stagnated a bit here, the American economy is doing very well," said Stephen Massocca, managing director at Wedbush Morgan in San Francisco. "The fly in the soup is Europe. You have to keep an eye on these bond markets, and as long as Spain and Italy stay below six percent in terms of bond yields, that is a green light to buy stocks." The Dow Jones industrial average (DJI:^DJI) was up 116.02 points, or 0.88 percent, at 13,329.65. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (MXP:^SPX) was up 16.37 points, or 1.17 percent, at 1,414.28. The Nasdaq Composite Index (NAS:^COMP) was up 36.61 points, or 1.20 percent, at 3,082.97. The MSCI world equity index (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 0.5 percent to 330.35. Trading was limited with many markets in Asia and Europe closed for the May Day holiday. World stocks posted a loss of about 1.5 percent last month as worries about global growth resurfaced after data showed the U.S. economy cooled in the first quarter and the euro zone recession was deepening. The weakness has also spread to other countries as the British manufacturing sector barely grew in April, hit by the economic slowdown in the euro zone, while Canada said its economy unexpectedly shrank in February. Adding to bullish sentiment were signs of recovery in Chinese manufacturing. China's Purchasing Managers' Index rose to a 13-month high in April, suggesting the world's second-largest economy has found a footing and may be recovering from a first-quarter trough. AUSSIE TUMBLES The Australian dollar fell nearly 1 percent against its U.S. counterpart after the Reserve Bank of Australia slashed rates by a deeper-than-expected 50 basis points. Domestic government bond yields hit 60-year lows. The dollar rose 0.5 percent to 80.18 yen, rebounding from a low of 79.62, its weakest point since February. The stronger yen hit Japan's export-related equities, sending the Nikkei index (NIK:^9452) down 1.8 percent to a 2-1/2-month closing low. The euro slipped 0.1 percent to $1.3225, off an earlier one-month high of $1.3283. Light volumes were expected before Thursday's European Central Bank meeting, Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls report and weekend elections in Greece and France. Brent crude rose 32 cents to $119.79 a barrel while U.S. crude rallied $1.10 to $105.97. Gold inched up to a two-week high and last traded around $1,664 an ounce. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was down 9/32, with the yield at 1.9488 percent. Benchmark yields, however, are still hovering at their lowest levels in nearly three months. May 01, 2012 13:57 OctaFX.Com News Updates

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OctaFX -Champion Demo Contest started! Dear traders! We are happy to announce that Round 1 of OctaFX Champion Demo Contest has officially started today! From now on, over 500 strongest traders of the world will be competing for the amazing prizes of this contest, namely: 1st prize gets 500 USD 2st prize gets 300 USD 3st prize gets 100 USD The last place gets another 100 USD The results and winners will be announced after May 26, 2012 00:00 (GMT+2). OctaFX would like to sincerely wish good luck to everyone and let the strongest win his/her prize with OctaFX!

OctaFx - Happy Weekend from OctAFX

Only 3 days left till OctaFX Champion Demo Contest start! Dear traders! In just 3 days OctaFX Champion Demo Contest will be officially started! You still have a unique opportunity to take part in this outstanding demo contest! Be the first to win and get amazing prizes from OctaFX! 1st prize gets 500 USD 2nd prize gets 300 USD 3rd prize gets 100 USD The last place gets another 100 USD Next round registration: Mar 27, 2012 00:00 - Apr 30, 2012 00:00 (GMT+2) Next round duration: Apr 30, 2012 00:00 - May 26, 2012 00:00 (GMT+2) Register in the contest, trade your demo account like a champion, win and get amazing prizes! Any possible trading techniques are welcome, whether EAs, scalping, hedging, or whatever you want to use! Be a winner and the total prize fund of 1000 USD monthly can become yours! Good luck everyone and let the strongest win the contest! Register now and become OctaFX Champion!

About OctaFX ECN Trading What is ECN/STP trading? It is a broker's business model (which, generally, creates the difference between brokers and "market makers"), in which clients' orders are sent directly to one or several liquidity providers to be executed on their end. There may be an unlimited number of liquidity providers (that is, banks, aggregators, other financial institutions). The more liquidity providers a broker has, the better is the execution for its clients (more liquidity available, less slippage). What makes a true STP broker — is that it doesn't internalize the orders, but sends them to liquidity providers, acting as an intermediary between the client and the real market. Do you have requotes? No, we don't. Any broker who re-quotes your orders is definitely a dealing desk broker. A requote occurs whenever dealer on the other side of the trade sets an execution delay during which the price changes. Therefore he can't open your order and sends you a message that the price had changed. That is, a requote. You usually get a new price which can be significantly different from the one you requested (especially when the market is volatile). In most cases it's not profitable for the trader but quite profitable for the broker. OctaFX doesn't have any requotes simply because we don't have a dealing desk whether human or automatic . Can I scalp? Do you allow news trading? Yes, you can. Unlike the majority of brokers out there who either directly prohibit scalping or indirectly prevent scalpers from trading, we welcome scalpers. By this point, you are certainly wondering why. Dealing desk brokers hold the other side of your trades. That is, they expect the market to go in the opposite direction and you lose. Scalpers use very short orders, which means they stay in the market for a very short period of time, during which the market doesn't change its course. The other problem for a dealing desk is that scalpers generate a huge number or requests at the same time (let's say during important news releases) which makes it hard for a dealing desk to handle them. OctaFX passes all the trades to its liquidity provider and just receives its commission. Therefore we are interested in high volumes (the higher the volume — the higher is our commission we get), which are usually generated by scalpers. How do I find out if my broker is a dealing desk? There are a number of rules and regulations usually applied by dealing desks, such as: A direct or indirect prohibition of scalping, news trading, other strategies Fixed spread So-called "guaranteed" stop orders A possibility of requotes If you meet any of these, your broker most certainly is a dealing desk. Dealing desks (or, so truly referred to as "market makers") in fact create their own markets for you with their own rules (described above). Needless to say these rules do not serve you; they are designed BY their creators and FOR their creators. NDD brokers such as OctaFX act as intermediaries between the trader and the real market, and receive strictly defined and transparent commission for it. How do dealing desks earn? In general, they do not offset your orders anywhere, rather they keep them inside. What you see in the charts is market maker's prices which may resemble the real ones, but in fact they are made up by the broker. So in this case, if you buy, let's say, EURUSD at a certain price, the broker opens your order, but doesn't offset it, because he assumes EURUSD will go down. If it does, you lose your deposit, and broker takes it. Alternatively, if you win, the broker has to pay you with his own money. Of course any market maker will do everything to prevent you from winning. Whether legal or illegal, anything goes when it's about the money. That's where you will face requotes, spikes and so on. How does OctaFX make money? Octafx needs profitable traders? WHY? OctaFX receives a certain commission from its liquidity providers for each transaction. We add it as a markup to spreads you see in the charts . We receive our liquidity from a wide range of liquidity providers around the world. Our system is designed to offer the best prices available at each moment to the clients. When you open a new order, you get the best available bid (or ask) price directly from the liquidity providers with our commission already included into it. Therefore we are interested that you trade more. And the best way to do so is to profit, not lose. This means we are interested that your trading goes as profitable as possible. You have no requotes. WHY? Putting it simply, we don't requote you because we have nothing to do with the quotes (i.e. the prices you see in your trading software). The order is filled when a price from one of our liquidity providers is available. It is important to understand, however, that we do not guarantee that your order will be filled exactly at the requested price; our system is setup to fill it by the next best price from another liquidity provider. But, again, your order will not be requoted, since we are more than interested in your profitable trading. Can liquidity providers see my orders? No, they can't. From their point of view they see only one customer, that is, OctaFX. You remain anonymous to them in all cases. The chart went through my limit, but my order wasn't opened. What's going on? It is a possible situation and it usually happens due to lack of liquidity at a certain period of time. Let's say a number of clients put sell limit orders prior to important news release with total volume of 1000 lots. When the news is released, it makes the market go up 50+ pips. So the chart hits the price of all these orders and it is requested to open a number of orders worth 1000 lots in total. It may happen that only 200 lots are available at the time from the liquidity providers at this price at this given time. In this case the first 200 lots out of 1000 will be filled, while the rest 800 will not be filled (no available liquidity) and will remain waiting until the price hits their level again. Do you allow EAs? Absolutely. Any EAs are welcomed. Which spread is better, fixed or variable? Variable is better because it is real. In the interbank market there is no such thing as fixed spread. Whenever a bank or any other financial institution wants to buy or sell currency, it sets required bid or ask. That is, the price they want at the moment. In real world the difference between Bid and Ask simply can't be fixed. So every dealing desk broker offering fixed spreads has to manipulate prices to make spread fixed. In most cases these manipulations are against the trader. Let's take your broker has 2 pips fixed spread on EURUSD. During daytime the spread is usually about 1 or 1.2 pips. That means you lose 0.8 pips in each single trade, and your dealing desk broker is happy. On the other hand, the very same EURUSD spread can widen to 5-6 pips during important news releases (like NFP). If your broker wants to keep 2 pips fixed spreads, it will either pay 4 pips difference for you or requote you, because it doesn't want to pay. Most probably a requote will happen since dealing desk doesn't want to lose 4 pips. What is slippage and why does it happen? Slippage is a slight order opening price movement which is a result of the lack of liquidity (when it's already taken by other traders' orders). It may also happen during market gaps. It is important to understand that we do not guarantee that your order will be filled exactly at the requested price; our system is setup to fill it by the next best price from another liquidity provider. So during these news times it's possible that there will be no liquidity available at the price you requested. Let's say you want to open 5 lots Buy order, EUR/USD, price is 1.30000. Now, in this case we can see the following liquidity available: Provider 1: price is 1.30010, 20 lots available Provider 2: price is 1.30005, 5 lots available Provider 3: price is 1.30000, 1 lot available In this case your order will be offset with Provider 2, since he has the best price and enough liquidity to fill your order. And the open price will be 1.30050, which is 0.5. pips away from the price you requested. But, again, your order will not be requoted, since we are more than interested in your profitable trading. Why don't you guarantee stop orders? Again, in real market there is no such thing as "guaranteed stop", it is offered by dealing desks only. As stated above, market makers do not offset your orders anywhere, rather they keep them inside. So when your "guaranteed" stop loss is triggered, it means that your whole loss amount is already in the dealer's pocket. In real market any stop order is considered as pending until its price is hit. After that the order is offset to a liquidity provider (which, again, may or may not involve slippage depending on the available liquidity). Therefore it's simply impossible to either "guarantee" or "hunt" your stop orders. ONLY 5 DAYS LEFT REGISTER NOW

OctaFx - Australian Dollar Sold as CPI Data Confirms Expectations of RBA Rate Cut Australian dollars flooded the market as traders unloaded positions in the currency in the face of disappointing CPI data which lent credence to beliefs that the RBA would cut its key interest rate next meeting. THE TAKEAWAY: 1Q Australian CPI Rose 0.1% QoQ and 1.6% YoY > Price Increase Fell Short of Analyst Estimates, Sending Traders Scurrying Away from the Aussie Dollar > AUDUSD Dropped Data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed that the nation’s prices rose 0.1 percent in the first quarter of 2012 and rose 1.6 percent since the same time last year. Today’s numbers surprised traders who were anticipating larger figures. Markets expected the quarterly consumer price index (CPI) to rise 0.6 percent and the annual CPI, 2.2 percent. Before the release, markets priced in a 94 percent probability that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.00 percent. During its April meeting, the RBA noted that monetary policy easing would be possible in the face of moderating inflation, but that it would be “prudent to evaluate [price] data before considering a further policy adjustment.” In light of today’s CPI release and yesterday’s producer price index (PPI) falling short of expectations, an interest rate cut at the next RBA meeting appears very likely. In the minutes following the release, AUDUSD dropped from 1.0317 to as low as 1.0255. Apr 20, 2012 14:09 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Real-time Live Quotes from OctaFX the current live quotes from OctaFX. All the quotes are updated in real-time. Please feel free to use them in educational and informational purposes. to see live quotes from OctaFX please visit http://www.octafx.com/markets/quotes/ or click here * 1 point (pip) is calculated as: For 5-digit pricing currency pairs - by 4th digit (0.0001); For 3-digit pricing currency pairs - by 2nd digit (0.01).

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OctaFx - Germany sees upswing amid eurozone turmoil Ifo index of business optimism indicates Germany economy is picking up speed after slow period FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) -- A key index of business optimism on Friday reinforced what an increasing number of economists are saying: Germany is beginning to see an upswing — even as the rest of the 17-country eurozone struggles with economic and financial turmoil over too much debt. The Ifo institute survey of business executives published Friday edged up to 109.9 points from 109.8 the month before, beating market expectations of a slight decline. That follows an unexpected fifth straight monthly rise Wednesday in the ZEW index, which measures the outlook among investment professionals. Both are leading indicators, suggesting where the economy might be headed in the next six months. Economists say these and other data mean Germany may now have avoided a recession and this year will easily outpacing the eurozone as a whole, which is expected to shrink 0.3 percent this year. Leading economic institutes this week raised their forecast for 2012 to 0.9 percent from a 0.8 percent prediction last fall, and predicted 2 percent growth next year. Some economists now think the economy grew in the first quarter as well, avoiding a second straight quarter of contraction after a slight 0.2 dip in the fourth quarter of last year. Two quarters of falling output is a technical definition of recession. Both parts of the Ifo index — estimates of current conditions and expectations for the next six months — were up. Sentiment rose among both industrial firms, which are often oriented toward exports in Germany, and retailers, which depend on domestic demand. Economists say Germany's low unemployment rate of 5.7 percent is giving workers the confidence they need to spend money in stores. "The German economy is showing itself to be resilient," said Ifo institute head Hans-Werner Sinn. Germany is motoring ahead even as fears worsen about the eurozone debt crisis. Spain and Italy are seeing higher costs to borrow money on bond markets and roll over their debt loads, while their economic growth is sagging. Their troubles — which could mean big losses for shaky banks if governments can't pay — hold out a threat to the European and global economies. High borrowing costs and fears of default have already pushed Greece, Ireland and Portugal to seek bailout loans from other eurozone countries. Greece additionally had to ask creditors to write down €107 billion in debt that it could not pay. Germany is reaping the benefits of efforts begun in the early 2000s to cut labor costs for businesses — a reform effort that has now been taken up by Spain and Italy but which may need years to bring them higher growth. It is benefiting from its traditional strengths as an exporter of cars and machinery, and growth has been boosted by the recovery in the United States and strong growth in emerging markets such as China. Ironically, in some ways the debt crisis has given Germany some help. Because of the country's reputation for stability, investors are willing to buy its bonds as safe places to put their money. That means rock-bottom borrowing costs for the government, in contrast to the heavy risk premiums paid by Italy and Spain to borrow — costs that threaten to undermine their budgets and create a self-fulfilling default spiral. A two-year bond sold Wednesday cost the German treasury only 0.14 percent interest yield, and a 10-year bond issue from April 11 yielded only 1.77 percent. With inflation at 2.3 percent, Germany's creditors are accepting no return on their lending or even paying for the privilege of lending it money. Rates are also low because the European Central Bank has reduced its benchmark to a lowest-ever 1 percent. German economists say those rock-bottom rates are helping lower borrowing costs for companies as well, spurring business investment that is helping fuel the recovery. Additionally, the crisis has kept the euro's exchange rate weaker than it otherwise would be, boosting exports. The eight economic institutes who produce a twice-yearly forecast for the government says that means German goods are cheaper in foreign markets than they have been for 30 years. The institutes warned however against complacency. They say their economy remains threatened by any wider disaster in the eurozone because 43 percent of its exports go to other eurozone countries — and 20 percent to the five crisis-hit countries, Spain, Italy, Greece, Ireland and Portugal. That means a substantial 12.3 percent of Germany's economy is based on trade with the eurozone — suggesting that a financial disaster among neighbors could easily spoil Germany's improving mood. Apr 20, 2012 14:09 OctaFX.Com News Updates

OctaFX.Com -EUR/USD Classical Technical Report 04.20 EUR/USD: The latest round of setbacks have stalled ahead of some key multi-week support by 1.3000 and from here we still can not rule out risks for additional consolidation above 1.3000, before considering bearish resumption. Ultimately, any rallies towards 1.3300 should be well capped, while a break and daily close back under 1.3000 would accelerate declines to the early 2012 lows at 1.2660. Apr 20, 2012 06:51 OctaFX.Com News Updates

OctaFx -AUD/USD Classical Technical Report 04.20 AUD/USD: Our bearish outlook in this market is being reaffirmed with the latest pullback from the mid-1.0400’s and we continue to project deeper setbacks over the coming days and weeks back below parity. A fresh lower top now looks to be carving by 1.0465 but only back above 1.0640 would delay and give reason for concern. From here, look for a break and close back below 1.0300 to open the next downside extension towards 1.0000 over the coming sessions. Apr 20, 2012 06:44 OctaFX.Com News Updates

OctaFX.Com -EUR/USD Classical Technical Report 04.19 EUR/USD: The latest round of setbacks have stalled ahead of some key multi-week support by 1.3000 and from here we still can not rule out risks for additional consolidation above 1.3000, before considering bearish resumption. Ultimately, any rallies towards 1.3300 should be well capped, while a break and daily close back under 1.3000 would accelerate declines to the early 2012 lows at 1.2660. Apr 19, 2012 06:26 OctaFX.Com News Updates

OctaFx -Euro falls for 3rd day on nagging funding worries NEW YORK (Reuters) - The euro fell for a third straight session against the U.S. dollar on Thursday despite a decent Spanish bond sale as investors remained skeptical about funding issues in the euro zone. The euro also tracked the rise in credit default swaps and the widening of yield spreads between the safe-haven German bunds and peripheral fixed income debt, suggesting growing nervousness about liquidity in the financial system and sustainability of the region's debt. "This is all emblematic of the fact that the market remains very nervous about the state of credit in the euro zone," said Boris Schlossberg, director of FX research at GFT Forex in Jersey City. "Despite the fact that we had a decent Spanish bond auction, there is just basic skepticism not only about the sovereign debt market but also the health of the overall banking system, particularly in Spain." Spain's Treasury issued 2.5 billion euros in two- and 10-year bonds, at the top end of the targeted amount. Yields on the key 10-year bond were higher, however, reflecting fears that Spain may miss budget deficit targets and about its banking sector. The euro dropped 0.2 percent to $1.3087 after hitting a session low of $1.3068, reversing gains that took the single currency to $1.3164 following the Spanish auction. Traders said they were inclined to sell into any euro rallies, with the rise in Spanish and Italian yields undermining any optimism from the auction. Market talk of a French downgrade also undermined sentiment towards the common currency. The euro also modestly sold off after a report showed that U.S. initial jobless claims were weaker than expected, which slightly dampened risk appetite. The euro held above strong chart support at $1.30. But an escalation of concerns about Spain's high level of debt, at a time when the economy is faltering, would put the euro back under pressure, potentially taking it towards the 2012 low of $1.2624. "The market has come to realize that positive bond auctions are not Spain's salvation," said Neil Mellor, currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon, adding it was only a matter of time before the euro broke below $1.30. "There are too many negative elements in the euro zone. If $1.30 breaks, we have only got minor levels of support until the January lows. We cannot preclude a sudden move lower." Many in the market said the euro would head lower in the medium term given the risks that budget and debt problems in Spain will worsen and uncertainty over the outcome of the French presidential election, which polls suggest will result in a leadership change. Traders cited talk of hedge funds betting the euro will fall to $1.25 soon after the French poll concludes early next month. The safe-haven Japanese yen, meanwhile, fell, as equities gained and after Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa stressed the central bank's commitment to powerful monetary easing. The dollar rose 0.3 percent to 81.510 yen, triggering reported stop loss buy orders around 81.60 yen, with traders earlier citing flows related to the launch of a large investment trust by a Japanese investment bank. The euro was up 0.1 percent at 106.79 yen, although resistance came in around its 50-day moving average at 107.44 yen. The higher-yielding Australian dollar was steady against the U.S. dollar at US$1.0356. Apr 19, 2012 10:53 OctaFX.Com News Updates