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OctaFX wishing Happy weekend to all Octa Markets Incorporated is a worldwide recognized forex broker. OctaFX provides forex brokerage services to its clients in over 100 countries of the world. OctaFX uses the most up-to-date technology and knowledge to make your forex trading experience outstandingly convenient. Our top goal is the trust and satisfaction of each client's need and requirements. OctaFX sets the highest service level standards and maintains them as well as constantly develops new services and promotions.
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OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
OctaFX.Com - Forex: British Pound to Steady Amid Mixed CPI, BoE Minutes Fundamental Forecast for British Pound: Neutral - British Pound Sees Risk Reversal Near High - British Pound Outlook Supported by BoE Policy - USD Maintains Broader Trend Despite Fed Easing – GBP Eyes 1.6200 The British Pound had a decent week, finishing -0.98% lower against the top Euro, while climbing nearly as high against the US Dollar by +0.83%, as data was mixed overall, providing neither a cause for rally or relief by the world’s oldest currency. Data was thin overall, with the November labor market readings representing the only significant event risk to the Sterling this week. Fortunately for the Sterling, the data came in mostly better than expected, with Jobless Claims dropping by -3.0K versus +7.0K expected, although Weekly Earnings disappointed suggesting that consumption could drop in the future. But our main attention is drawn to a future Bank of England governor, which when combined with the near-term fundamental backdrop necessarily suggests a “neutral” rating for the British Pound for the coming five days. Primarily, the overarching theme that the British Pound will face in the weeks and months ahead will be a dismal growth picture marked by both high inflation and high unemployment, while inflation is expected to “overshoot” BoE targets over the coming years. Overall, this maintains our view that stagnation has set itself upon the UK economy; a symptom hard to rid one’s economy of, unless both fiscal policy and monetary policy makers move in lockstep. The stage has been set by Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne: the UK will remain on the austerity path for at least another year. Accordingly, the big news this week, or rather, big news for those reading between the lines of central bankers’ speeches, was that incoming BoE Governor and current Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney suggested that a nominal GDP targeted stimulus package would be appropriate for those central banks whose policies are operating at the zero bound of interest rates. Or, that if a central bank had already cut its key rates towards 0.00%, it could pursue a policy that would promise additional stimulus until a predetermined level of growth is reached; for example, the BoE could pledge an Asset Purchase Program expansion of £10B/month until annualized GDP hit +3.0%. Considering that the UK economy isn’t likely to see a growth figure above +2.0% annualized until late-2014 at the earliest, a nominal GDP target could be a heavy albatross around the British Pound’s neck if adopted when Governor Carney takes over in July 2013. For now, as this is priced in over the coming months, we expect it to slowly erode yields and thus undermine the Sterling. But for this week, considering that holiday trading conditions are around the corner, we doubt that it will pose much of a significant threat; rather, it will be a growing conversation piece. Data this week isn’t enchanting itself, with the November Consumer Price Index report on Tuesday and the BoE Minutes on Wednesday.Also due are the November Retail Sales on Thursday and the final 3Q’12 GDP reading on Friday. Of the expected data, the November CPI might be the least informative print of the year, with a huge disparity between the monthly and yearly readings. The BoE Minutes should underscore the notion that the BoE is willing to do more QE, but has chosen to remain on the sidelines for now. At the end of the week, the November Retail Sales offer a strong opportunity to see some upside in the Sterling, given the forecasts for a solid beat, while the final 3Q’12 GDP figure holding steady shouldn’t stoke much volatility. In sum, we are neither impressed nor disappointed with what the economic docket offers for the British Pound this week, leaving our bias at neutral, while expecting another middle of the road performance. Dec 15, 2012 OctaFX.Com News Updates -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
OctaFX.Com - Forex: EUR/USD Just Below 1.3200 Without Major Threats…Or Catalysts EUR/USD Just Below 1.3200 Without Major Threats…Or Catalysts Fundamental Forecast for the Euro: Bearish European Union approves Greece’s next round of aid after bond buyback program Portugal asks for ‘equal treatment’ for bailout terms EURUSD’s reversals is showing greater technical strength The euro’s strength was robust and broadly distributed this past week. A combination of general (though modest) improvement in economic data, the loose adoption of an EU bank supervisor and the long-awaited approval for Greece’s aid distribution generated enough optimism to lift the currency against all of its counterparts. It’s performance ranged between the barely changed EURCHF (laden by regional capital flows) and the impressive 3.0 percent surge from EURJPY (helped out by an exceptionally weak yen). Helped along by a positive bearing on global investor sentiment, the Euro has leverage fundamentals to remarkable effect. Yet after the aggressive rally to multi-month and multi-year highs, we find that the burden for follow through has risen substantially – just we’ve run out of big-ticket catalysts. It has taken a tremendous amount of lift to drive the euro to the heights that it scaled last week. Most prominent is the EURUSD which has risen to test the highs set in March along with the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of its 2011-to-2012 bear trend at 1.3150. While the benchmark pair has officially marked its highest intraday level and daily close in over seven months, it hasn’t fully cleared the next stage to extend its bull run into a systemic trend. This technical view is a fitting reflection of the fundamental and market conditions that the FX market faces moving forward. To assess our next move, we should first appreciate what it took to wrench the euro to the heights it currently finds itself at. There were a series of economic releases this past week that could at best be described as ‘better-than-expected’. The bulk of the currency’s move was founded on relief. The risk that Greece could either default or exit the Eurozone (or both) tapped into an elemental fear of over the inviolability of the economic collective and its currency. Slowly, however, that threat has abated. The shift began back in July after an EU Summit laid out programs to support struggling members. When the ECB announced a potentially unlimited safety net in its OMT program, the pressure on the euro further eased. This past week, the approval of Greece’s next round of aid was the next step. After an initial short-fall on the bond buyback program, the market saw that the country would meet the target necessary to trigger support as the week wore on. By Thursday, the EU announced an immediate dispersal of €34.3 billion and monthly payouts afterwards. Delivering aid to Greece removes the euro out of immediate peril, but it is interesting to note that the currency barely advanced after the news. The market had priced in this outcome well before hand as the alternative would have been politically unpalatable. Yet, now we have found the relief the market had priced in before hand and bought Greece a number of months of calm before another serious shock could show up. Risk has been removed. Shouldn’t the euro be wide open to rally now? Not necessarily. While Greece may no longer be an immediate threat, there really isn’t a convincing argument of strength to be made for bidding the euro. What we have seen from July was in essence a series of relief rallies spurred on by the anticipation of and reaction to stabilizing policy. And, we have run out of catalysts… In trader parlance, we have ‘reduced the tail risk’ – or as policy officials say, “there is no longer a crisis of confidence in the euro’. Yet, that isn’t a standalone reason to be bullish. Investors are not naïve enough to believe that this one approval will secure Greece or the Eurozone for good. What’s more, neglected concerns may start to come back to the forefront. Spain’s funding issues are national, regional and banking sector-wide; and there has been little genuine progress made beyond a fortunate easing of bond yields. An election in Italy highlights the country’s debt load. Ireland will release 3Q GDP next week to remind us of the underlying economic issues are. And, perhaps most concerning of all, Portugal has built up a call for ‘equal treatment’ – access to the ‘one-off’ same accommodation as Greece. Dec 15, 2012 OctaFX.Com News Updates -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
OctaFX.Com - Forex: Euro Struggles On Deepening Recession- ECB Rate Cut On Horizon Talking Points Euro: 3Q Employment Falters, Core Inflation Falls Short Of Expectations British Pound: U.K. Core Inflation To Tick Higher, All Eyes On BoE Minutes U.S. Dollar: Index Pares Losses As Risk Appetite Subsides, CPI Misses Forecast Euro: 3Q Employment Falters, Core Inflation Falls Short Of Expectations The EURUSD pared the overnight advance to 1.3118 as employment in the euro-area contracted 0.2% in the third-quarter, and the ongoing weakness in the labor market may produce a prolonged recession in Europe as the jobless rate is expected to hit fresh record-highs in 2013. Although the headline reading for euro-area inflation held steady at 2.2% in November, the core reading for consumer prices increased 1.4% during the same period to mark the slowest pace of growth since August 2011, and easing price pressures certainly raises the scope for another rate from the European Central Bank (ECB)as the economic downturn threatens price stability. As the ECB preserves a dovish tone for monetary policy, we should see the Governing Council carry its easing cycle into the following year, and the Governing Council looks poised to push the benchmark interest rate to a fresh record-low in an effort to stem the downside risks for growth and inflation. As the EURUSD continues to carve a lower top around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 high to the 2010 low (1.3120), we may see a short-term reversal take shape in the week ahead, and we will look for a move back towards the 23.6% retracement around 1.2640-50 as the fundamental outlook for the euro-area remains bleak. British Pound: U.K. Core Inflation To Tick Higher, All Eyes On BoE Minutes The British Pound fell back from 1.6142 to trade within the previous day’s range, and the sterling appears to be coiling up for a move higher as the economic docket for the following week is expected to dampen bets for more monetary support. Although the headline reading for U.K. inflation is expected to hold steady at 2.7%, we’re anticipating a small uptick in the core CPI, and sticky price growth may prop up the sterling ahead of the Bank of England (BoE) Minutes due out on December 19 as the central bank drops its dovish tone for monetary policy. Indeed, the policy statement may reveal a shift in policy outlook as the BoE looks to address the threat for inflation, and we should see the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) slowly move away from its easing cycle as price growth is expected to hold above the 2% target over the next two-years. In turn, we should see the MPC endorse a wait-and-see approach in 2013, and a growing number of BoE officials may start to draw up a tentative exit strategy in the year ahead in an effort to balance the risks surrounding the U.K. economy. As the relative strength index on the GBPUPSD preserves the upward trend from November, we continue to look for another test of the 23.6% Fib from the 2009 low to high around 1.6200, and we may see the British Pound outperform in 2013 as the BoE appears to be bringing its easing cycle to an end. U.S. Dollar: Index Pares Losses As Risk Appetite Subsides, CPI Misses Forecast The greenback appears to be regaining its footing going into the North American trade, with the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) bouncing back from a low 9,951, and the reserve currency may track higher throughout the remainder of the day as the rebound in risk sentiment appears to be tapering off. Nevertheless, we saw U.S. consumer prices slow for the first time since May, led by lower energy costs, and easing price pressures dampens the appeal of the greenback as it increases the Fed’s scope to expand its balance sheet further. As the central bank maintains a highly accommodative policy stance, speculation for more easing will continue to drag on the exchange rate, but we may6 see the 2013 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) scale back their dovish tone amid the more broad-based recovery in the world’s largest economy. Dec 14, 2012 OctaFX.Com News Updates -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
OctaFX.Com - ECB: 'Tangible easing' of crisis, risks remain European Central Bank: strains on eurozone banks, markets have eased but much remains to do FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) -- The European Central Bank says there has been a "tangible easing" of stress on banks and markets from the eurozone debt crisis. It says risks remain, however, particularly if governments slow down their efforts to cut debt and deficits and improve growth. The bank is crediting its plan to buy the bonds of heavily indebted countries, which would lower their borrowing costs. European Union efforts to establish stronger banking oversight helped too, the bank said Friday. The bond purchase plan has seen borrowing rates fall for troubled countries such as Spain and Italy, even though no bonds have been bought. The ECB warned that the banking system across the 17 countries that use the euro remains fragmented, with borrowing costs higher in troubled countries than in others. Dec 14, 2012 OctaFX.Com News Updates -
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OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
Check out OctaFx-Financial News: CLICK HERE Dec 13, 2012 OctaFX.Com News Updates -
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OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
OctaFx - Forex Analysis: Forex Analysis: Is Dollar Weakness After FOMC a Foregone Conclusion? Forex markets are positioned for a US Dollar selloff as the Federal Reserve expands stimulus efforts but such an outcome is not as assured as it may seem. Talking Points US Dollar to Rally vs. Majors if Fed Decides Against Unsterilized Bond-Buying British Pound to Look Past Jobless Claims Data on Static BOE Outlook, FOMC Japanese Yen Sinks as Asian Stocks Soar on Hopes for Fed Stimulus Expansion Most major currencies were locked in narrow ranges in overnight trade as financial markets look ahead to the Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement to yield direction cues. At the heart of the decision will be the fate of the so-called Operation Twist program designed to re-target stimulus at lowering longer-term borrowing costs. This is done by swapping out short-term securities on the Fed’s balance sheet for long-dated ones at a pace of about $45 billion per month. Twist is due to expire at year-end and the market consensus appears to be that it will be replaced with an equivalent-sized “unsterilized” bond-buying scheme. This means that unlike its predecessor, the new effort will not be balance-sheet neutral. Such an outcome is likely to be treated as a meaningful move to the dovish side of the policy spectrum, broadly weighing on the US Dollar against its major counterparts. Importantly, the recent run of supportive US economic data – most critically the service-sector ISM and NFP data points – as well as an upbeat Beige Book survey suggest the door is open for the FOMC to pursue a less aggressive course. A decision to introduce an unsterilized program smaller than $45 billion or opt for a Twist-like program that does not swell the balance sheet stands weigh heavily on risk appetite and send the greenback higher. Besides the fate of Operation Twist, traders will likewise look toward revisions in the rate-setting committee’s economic forecasts as well as the tone of Bernanke’s quarterly press conference for additional guidance. Bleak cues on either front may cap US Dollar gains in the event that policymakers take a less dovish path than investors are looking for, opening the door for added easing to be unveiled in 2013. Alternatively, signs of optimism may trim the buck’s losses if the fully unsterilized approach is indeed adopted and aggressively amplify its gains if the committee eschews balance-sheet expansion for now. On the economic data front, UK Jobless Claims headline the European docket. Expectations call for a 7,000 increase in November, marking a narrow improvement from the 10,100 rise in the prior month. The outcome is unlikely to yield a meaningful reaction from the British Pound, with BOE policy expectations firmly anchored and traders looking ahead to the Fed announcement before committing to a strong directional bias. The Japanese Yen stood apart from the near-standstill across the FX space in Asian trading hours, sliding as much as 0.6 percent against its leading counterparts as regional stock exchanges pushed higher and dented haven demand. The MSCI Asia Pacific added 0.5 percent amid hopes the Federal Reserve will step up easing efforts. Dec 12, 2012 OctaFX.Com News Updates -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
OctaFx - Forex Analysis: Forex Analysis: US Dollar Classic Technical Report 12.12.2012 Prices are resting at rising trend line support set from the mid-September bottom, with the outlines of a Flag chart formation hinting at bullish continuation. A Piercing Line candlestick pattern reinforces the case for an upside scenario. A break above Flag resistance at 9976 initially exposes the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 9995. Alternatively, a drop below the trend line (now at 9942) targets the Flag bottom at 9895. Dec 12, 2012 OctaFX.Com News Updates -
OctaFx - Forex Analysis: US Dollar, S&P 500 Charts Warn of Risk Aversion Ahead THE TAKEAWAY: US Dollar and S&P 500 technical positioning hints the greenback is aiming to reverse higher on the back of haven demand as the equity benchmark turns downward. US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices are resting at rising trend line support set from the mid-September bottom, with the outlines of a Flag chart formation hinting at bullish continuation. A Piercing Line candlestick pattern reinforces the case for an upside scenario. A break above Flag resistance at 9976 initially exposes the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 9995. Alternatively, a drop below the trend line (now at 9942) targets the Flag bottom at 9895. Read more Dec 12, 2012 OctaFX.Com News Updates
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OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
OctaFx - Forex Analysis: US Dollar, S&P 500 Charts Warn of Risk Aversion Ahead THE TAKEAWAY: US Dollar and S&P 500 technical positioning hints the greenback is aiming to reverse higher on the back of haven demand as the equity benchmark turns downward. US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices are resting at rising trend line support set from the mid-September bottom, with the outlines of a Flag chart formation hinting at bullish continuation. A Piercing Line candlestick pattern reinforces the case for an upside scenario. A break above Flag resistance at 9976 initially exposes the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 9995. Alternatively, a drop below the trend line (now at 9942) targets the Flag bottom at 9895. Read more Dec 12, 2012 OctaFX.Com News Updates -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
OctaFx.com - Forex Analysis: Euro May Look Past Disappointing German ZEW Data The Euro is likely to look past what could be a disappointing outcome on Germany’s ZEW investor confidence gauge before this week’s EU leaders’ summit. Talking Points German ZEW May Surprise Lower But Euro Follow-Through Unlikely US Dollar May Rise as S&P 500 Futures Point to Risk-Averse Mood December’s German ZEW Survey of investor confidence is in focus on the European economic calendar. Forecasts suggest the forward-looking Expectations index will continue to moderate, showing sentiment remains net negative but by a smaller margin. The gauge has closely tracked Italian bond yields, suggesting the evolution of the Eurozone debt crisis is the key trend-setter. Rates on the benchmark Italian 10-year debt have edged higher this month, pointing to a pickup in funding stress and warning the ZEW reading may fall short of expectations. While this may put near-term downward pressure on the Euro, follow-through is likely to prove limited. Indeed, yields themselves are a far timelier indicator of investors’ confidence in Eurozone crisis containment efforts than the ZEW reading. Furthermore, traders are unlikely to commit to a firm directional bias until the outcome of this week’s EU Leaders’ summit. On the sentiment front, S&P 500 futures are pointing lower, arguing for a risk-off mood heading into European trading hours and hinting the safety-linked US Dollar may have scope to advance against most of its top counterparts. Trading was muted in the overnight session, with the major currencies locked in narrow consolidation ranges. Dec 11, 2012 OctaFX.Com News Updates -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
OctaFx - Greece extends buyback offer to reach 30 billion-euro target ATHENS/BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Greece extended its offer to buy back debt until Tuesday, seeking more bids from bondholders after falling short of a target to retire bonds worth 30 billion euros at a cost of just 10 billion euros. The buyback is designed to provide for about half of a 40-billion euro debt relief package for Athens agreed last month by the European Union and International Monetary Fund. Its success is crucial to ensuring Greece's debt is put back on sustainable footing and - more immediately - to unlocking badly-needed aid for the country. Despite the initial lack of investor interest, the scheme is expected to ultimately hit its targets since Greek banks - whose own fate depends on a successful buyback - are expected to stump up the shortfall. A total of 26.5 billion euros was tendered at an average price of 33.4 percent of face value when the offer expired on Friday, a senior euro zone official told Reuters. That would mean Greece would still have 1.15 billion euros left over from the 10 billion euros it was allotted to spend to retire outstanding debt. Assuming the same average price, it could buy an extra 3.5 billion euros worth of bonds. Greece's debt agency extended the offer to 7 a.m. EDT on Tuesday following Friday's deadline. "The aim is to reach the 30 billion euro target on the face value of debt to be bought back," said a government official, who declined to be named, adding the aim was to use all of the 10 billion euros given by lenders for the buyback. Euro zone finance ministers will meet on Thursday in Brussels to review the buyback operation and formally release the next disbursement of loans to Greece under its second international rescue program. "We are confident that there is still scope for additional tenders by domestic and international investors to ensure a successful debt buyback," European Commission spokesman Simon O'Connor told a regular briefing in Brussels. "EASILY COVERED" A senior Greek banker who spoke on condition of anonymity said Athens aimed to use the additional day to get another 3 to 4 billion euros worth of bonds offered for exchange. "This will be easily covered by Greek banks, if foreign bondholders do not offer more," the banker told Reuters. Greek banks and insurers had tendered about 10 billion euros of bonds out of their total holdings of about 17 billion euros, the banker said. Nearly 63 billion euros of Greek debt held by private investors was eligible for the buyback. Shortly before the previous Friday deadline expired, Greek banks got board approvals to offer as much as 100 percent of their bondholdings to make the buyback work. Athens had offered better-than-expected terms for the buyback to entice investors, with price ranges at a premium over market prices. But Greek lenders had been reluctant to sell back to the government all of their bondholdings, trying to limit the future profits and interest income on their bonds they will forego. However, they are expected to step up now to ensure a successful buyback since they depend on the bailout funds that Athens stands to receive once it is completed. A big chunk of the 34.4 billion euros of aid due will be used to recapitalize them. Athens badly needs the aid to revive its ailing economy, which is on track for a sixth year of recession due to austerity measures including spending cuts and tax hikes. The EU and the IMF have been withholding rescue payments to Greece for six months because it had failed on pledges to shore up its finances, privatize and make its economy more competitive. Greece and its international lenders had shied away from setting a binding target for the buyback, apart from saying that Athens would spend a maximum of 10 billion euros on it. Under the scheme, Greece was expected to spend that amount to repurchase 30 billion euros of debt, shaving it by a net 20 billion euros. That would help slash Greece's debt to 124 percent of GDP by 2020, ensuring that the IMF stays on board in the country's rescue. Greece set December 18 as the settlement date for offers on the 20 series of outstanding bonds it is buying back. Athens' debt agency chief urged investors to tender their holdings, warning a similar deal may not come again. "Future measures may not involve an opportunity to exit investments ... at the levels offered for this buyback," PDMA Chief Stelios Papadopoulos said in a statement. Dec 10, 2012 OctaFX.Com News Updates -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
OctaFx - Greece received 26.5 billion euros in buyback bids by end-Friday BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Greece received a total of 26.5 billion euros ($34.3 billion) in offers for its debt buyback at the close of business on December 7, a senior euro zone official told Reuters on Monday. The official said the price was 33.4 percent. Greece has extended its offer to buy back debt until Tuesday, seeking more bids from bondholders after falling just short of a target to retire bonds worth 30 billion euros at a cost of just 10 billion euros. The buyback is designed to provide for about half of a 40-billion euro debt relief package for Athens agreed last month by the European Union and International Monetary Fund. The offer had been due to end on Friday. The Greek debt agency extended the offer to 7 a.m. EDT on Tuesday. "We are confident that there is still scope for additional tenders by domestic and international investors to ensure a successful debt buyback," European Commission spokesman Simon O'Connor told a regular briefing in Brussels. Euro zone finance ministers will meet on Thursday in Brussels to review the buyback operation and formally release the next disbursement of loans to Greece under its second international rescue program. Dec 10, 2012 OctaFX.Com News Updates -
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OctaFX.Com - Happy Weekend form team OctaFX OctaFX is a top-notch service level forex broker. OctaFX provides forex trading services to clients all around the globe. In today's world forex trading has become one of the most efficient ways of investment. You can start your online forex trading today with OctaFX. OctaFX is a world leading forex broker. Please feel free to browse our economic calendar. It contains important information on EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, USDCHF, EURCHF, AUDUSD, USDCAD, NZDUSD and other currency pairs and trading instruments. We offer most up-to-date market news and market research. OctaFX also offers no deposit forex bonus. You can trade microlots and 0.01 lots with OctaFX. Open your real account today and start your profitable requote-free trading in 5 minutes!
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OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
OctaFX.Com -Forex Analysis: Euro Jolted by ECB Rate Cut Rumors – Data Offers Little Clarity The Euro was one of the worst performing currencies this week, losing -0.46% to the US Dollar and -1.93% to the top New Zealand Dollar, as an interesting mix of data and commentary from central bankers and politicians allowed for an odd week of trading, with weakness in equity market and European peripheral bonds (rising yields), while strength in high beta currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand Dollars. The Euro was looking strong in the early part of the week, rising back above 1.3100 against the US Dollar as progress on the US fiscal cliff/slope soothed near-term investors’ anxiety. But by mid-week, the Euro’s fortunes were very much changed. With an inconclusive docket for the coming week, with a decision on Greece’s aid tranche on Thursday, with Spain beginning to flirt with a bailout request, and with the European Central Bank’s policy meeting results all likely to influence the 17-nation single currency, we must maintain a “neutral” bias on the Euro. To review: Spain has officially requested bailout funds for its banking sector. There were also rumors that Spain would seek a full sovereign bailout if the ECB would be willing to keep its longer-term yields within 2% of Germany’s. Obviously, this would not happen; ECB President Mario Draghi said on Thursday that the market has to find its own “natural” rates within reason; this in and of itself is a direct refutation of the Spanish request. This means that not only is the ECB on hold (no further rate cuts), but nothing else will be done until Spain takes the ECB’s conditions; the tail will not wag the dog. The region could use looser monetary conditions, with Germany starting to see weaker growth; yet any additional measures will likely result in higher inflation in the core countries as well as sovereign moral hazard. We don’t see a rate change at present time, even though Bloomberg News reported that most ECB policymakers favored a 25-bps rate cut on Thursday. Additionally, the European Union will deliver its final decision on the Greek aid tranche this Thursday, at which we expect a full dispersion to take place, or a planned release of funds in the future. Primarily, it is highly unlikely German Chancellor Angela Merkel allows Greece to leave the Euro-zone and allow a failure on her record (the beginning of the break-up of the Euro-zone) ahead of elections in just a few months. It would be very surprising if Greece does not receive the aid. The data picture the coming week is neutral to bullish for the Euro, which could help some of these other negative pressures present. On Monday, the December Euro-zone Sentix Investor Confidence reading is expected to have increased to -16.9 from -18.8. On Tuesday, the German ZEW Survey will show improvement in both the Current Situation and Economic Sentiment readings, which should ease 4Q’12 concerns about German growth. The Euro-zone Consumer Price Index this Friday draws our attention. Inflation is expected at -0.2% m/m in November, down from the +0.2% m/m reading in October. The yearly figure is expected at +2.2% from +2.5% y/y previously. These figures suggest aggregate demand in the Euro-zone is falling, a view shared by the ECB on Thursday. If deflation takes hold, a rate cut becomes a very real possibility in 1Q’ or 2Q’12. There are many different factors weighing on the Euro right now; while they’re mostly negative, positive outcomes remain possible. Accordingly, with data poised to offset concerns over Spain and the ECB over the coming week, we must give the Euro a “neutral” rating going forward; when risk-appetite is prevalent, the Euro could trail the winners; and when risk-aversion is prevalent, the Euro could lead the decliners Dec 8, 2012 OctaFX.Com News Updates -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
OctaFX.Com -Forex Analysis: British Pound Outlook Supported By BoE Policy- 1.6200 Remains Key The British Pound continued to retrace the decline from back in September as the Bank of England (BoE) maintained its current policy stance in December, and the short-term rebound in the GBPUSD may gather pace over the remainder of the year as the central bank appears to be slowly moving away from its easing cycle. Beyond the headline reading for U.K. Jobless Claims, which is expected to increase another 7.0K in November, we’re expecting to see average weekly earnings including bonuses increased for the third month in October, and another uptick in wage growth may become a growing concern for the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) as inflation is expected to hold above the 2% target over the next two-years. Indeed, the BoE kept the benchmark interest rate at 0.50% and maintains its asset purchase program at GBP 375B, and we may see the central bank adopt a more hawkish tone for monetary policy as the U.K. emerges from the double-dip recession. Former MPC dove Adam Posen argued that the central bank is ‘going to be on hold indefinitely’ as the central bank turns its attention to the stickiness in inflation, and the BoE may shift gears in the following year as it aims to preserve price stability. Although the deepening recession in the Euro Zone – the U.K.’s largest trading partner – casts a weakened outlook for growth, we’ve seem consumer price growth hold above target since November 2009, and the committee may look to address the threat for inflation in an effort to preserve its credibility. As a BoE survey shows inflation expectations for the next 12-months increasing an annualized 3.5% following the 3.2% expansion in August, heightening price pressures in the U.K. should continue to prop up the British Pound as it pushes the BoE to scale back its willingness to expand its balance sheet further. As the relative strength index on the GBPUSD struggles to maintain the upward trend carried over from the previous month, the pound-dollar may continue to consolidate ahead of the BoE Minutes due out on December 19, and the exchange rate may continue to bounce between 1.6000-1.6100 as market participants weigh the outlook for monetary policy. Nevertheless, as the shift in the policy outlook fosters a bullish forecast for the British Pound, the rebound from 1.5822 may continue to gather pace over the near-term, but we would need a more meaningful move above 1.6200 – the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 low to high – to see the pair breakout of the downward trend carried over from 2011. Dec 8, 2012 OctaFX.Com News Updates -
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OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
OctaFX.Com - FOREX Technical Analysis: NZD/USD Slams into Short Term Channel and Reverses Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT FOREXAnalysis: “Bigger picture, the NZDUSD appears quite bullish as the decline from 8355 is in 3 waves (corrective) and the rally from 8052 is in 5 waves. The question at this point is whether the decline from 8267 is complete or simply part of a larger correction that ends below 8170 and closer to the estimated 8125/35 support.” The NZDUSD has headed straight up since 8170. Given the reaction at channel resistance today, there is the possibility that the advance from 8052 composes wave B of a triangle or flat that began on 9/28. That scenario is not viewed as probable as long as price is above 8170 however. A Fibonacci confluence and August 2011 high intersects with a channel at the end of December. FOREXTrading Strategy: Weakness into 8240 would be worthy of bullish consideration against 8170. Dec 7, 2012 OctaFX.Com News Updates -
OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
OctaFx -ECB cuts growth outlook for eurozone, holds rates European Central Bank cuts growth outlook for eurozone, leaves interest rates unchanged FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) -- The European Central Bank underlined the gloomy prospects for the economy of the 17 European Union countries that use the euro, cutting its forecast for growth next year to minus 0.3 percent from plus 0.5 percent. Even so, the bank left rates unchanged at its meeting Thursday, and ECB head Mario Draghi gave little sign the bank was willing to add more stimulus. He said the bank had already done much to lower borrowing costs in heavily indebted countries that are struggling to grow. The bank's 22-member governing council kept the refinancing rate unchanged at 0.75 percent. The rate determines what private-sector banks are charged for borrowing from the ECB, and through that what rate the banks set for their businesses and consumer clients. Draghi said current rates were "very accomodative" — meaning they are low enough to encourage growth. He also said that the ECB had already effectively lowered some interest rates with its plan announced in September to buy the bonds of indebted countries. That plan — which would drive down borrowing costs for indebted governments that ask for help — had already led to drop of as much as 2 or 2 ½ percentage points in some countries borrowing costs, just on anticipation by bond investors. "That is much more than you can achieve by a cut in the policy rate," Draghi said. The eurozone's economy is in recession, having shrunk 0.1 percent in the third quarter after a 0.2 percent fall in the previous three months. A recession is often defined as two quarters of negative growth in a row. It is expected to contract again in the last three months of the year. Draghi said the slump would continue into next year, with a gradual recovery later in 2013. The bank's minus 0.3 percent outlook is the midpoint of the forecast rate of between minus 0.9 percent and plus 0.3 percent. Growth is being held back across the eurozone as governments slash spending and raise taxes to try to reduce levels of debt piled up from overspending in the case of Greece or real estate bubbles and banking crises in Spain and Ireland. Greece, Portugal, Ireland and tiny Cyprus have already needed bailouts, while Italy and Spain, the eurozone's third- and fourth-largest economies, teetered on the edge of needing help this summer. A rate reduction in theory could stimulate the eurozone's economy by making it easier to borrow, spend and invest. But rates are already low, and borrowing remains weak. There are only a few early signs that previous rate cuts and stimulus measures are finally trickling through to the wider economy. Draghi said that there had been a "wide discussion" on interest rates but that "in the end the consensus was to leave rates unchanged." Use of the term "consensus" suggests the council was not unanimous, but many analysts think the ECB could leave rates alone well into next year and might be done cutting. Some analysts think the bank may now consider it has done enough to help the economy after a year of drastic measures. The most important was an offer in September to buy unlimited amounts of bonds issued by of Europe's heavily indebted countries. It also made €1 trillion ($1.3 trillion) in cheap, long-term loans to stabilize shaky banks last December and February, and cut rates a quarter point in July. The bond purchase plan announced in September has helped stabilize the eurozone debt crisis. The purchases would aim to drive down bond interest rates, which would lower borrowing costs for indebted countries such as Spain and Italy and make it easier for them to manage their debt loads. Although no bonds have been bought, the mere possibility has influenced the bond market. The interest yield on Spanish 10-year bonds is down to around 5.4 percent now, from 7.6 percent in July. Italy's costs to borrow for 10 years are now down to 4.4 percent, down from over 7 percent at the start of the year and close to the country's average for the past decade, But while governments are breathing easier, that hasn't restarted growth. The ECB has tried to make sure that its crisis efforts are making it through to the eurozone's wider economy — but it is taking time to be felt and fear and reluctance remain. While some business confidence indicators are beginning to rise and the supply of money in the economy is increasing, consumer spending sagged 1.2 percent in October. Dec 6, 2012 OctaFX.Com News Updates -
OctaFX Champion Contest Round 7 Grand Award! Dear traders! Today we are proud to award OctaFX Champion Round 7 winners! The round results remained unpredictable literally till the last minute. And traditionally, we have interviewed those who won the competition and asked them to share their success stories for everyone to see and follow. Now, let’s allow our winners speak for themselves: 1st prize, 500 USD, and congratulations to Mr. Ludiso Januarta from Indonesia Q: So what is the best forex strategy that you used to win? A: I use the martingale strategy and a few indicators that I always use for manual trading Q: Your impressions about OctaFX contests and other services (if you use them, of course)? A: With the demo contest in OctaFX, where I can learn how to use a good strategy, and provide an opportunity for traders newbies like me to learn to improve the quality of trading. SALAM SUKSES! 2nd prize, 300 USD, and our huge respect to Mr. Heri Cahyo Riyanto Syarifuddin from Indonesia Q: What is your main secret in trading? How did you become so successful, share your ideas with traders around the world, please. A: The secret is patient to wait for the best momentum to open trade.Don't be greedy.Don't collect the pips but dollar! I am a newbie in forex. This is my first joining in OctaFX Demo Contest.I am very surprised when I could win the 2nd Prize. WOW...Thank you OctaFX! I hope in future OctaFX will increase the prize. 3rd prize, 100 USD, and give props to Mr. Sergii Tkachenko from Ukraine Q: So what is the best forex strategy that you used to win? A: I had't specific strategies, I just traded. It was the 6-th time I participated, fortunatelly I was lucky. The main secret of trading is discipline and adherence to the plan. And stop in time, do not be greedy. Finally the last, but not the least prize winner, Mr. Cuong Le from Vietnam On behalf of OctaFX we would like to thank each contestant for taking part in OctaFX demo contests! And we promise to continue the tradition of the amazing OctaFX Champion Demo Contest! Don't miss your chance to become a winner!. Take part in OctaFX contests and win cool prizes! Start your successful trading with OctaFX today
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OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis
OctaFX_Farid replied to OctaFX_Farid's topic in Technical Analysis
OctaFX.Com - Forex News: Euro Fails to Hold 1.31 As Spanish Bond Auction Misses Target Despite the failure to reach a final agreement on a joint banking supervisor in yesterday’s meeting of European finance ministers, the Euro still climbed higher in yesterday’s session and rose above 1.3100 in the first part of today’s trading. Risk sentiment seems to be higher as the move was mimicked by other risk-correlated currencies, and European equities opened higher in today’s trading. Part of the optimism may come from Asian markets, where the Shanghai Composite index climbed nearly 3% in today’s trading, following an announcement that economic policies will be kept stable in China. There were only a few economic releases in today’s European session. The 10th straight decline in Euro-zone composite output was not as bad as initially estimated, and the rise in UK services activity disappointed expectations. The bigger decline came when sales of Spanish 3, 7, and 10-year bonds disappointed a maximum target of 4.5 billion Euros by only raising 4.25 billion in the auction. Then, Euro-zone retail sales were reported to have declined 1.2% in October, the disappointing number kept EURUSD below 1.3100. The Euro is currently trading at about 1.3085 against the US Dollar in forex markets. Resistance could be provided by a 2-month high at 1.3139, and support could be provided at 1.3026, by the 76.4% retracement of the drop from October’s high to November’s low. Tomorrow could see a lot of movement in Euro trading. The ECB will announce the interest rate at 12:45 GMT, expectations are for the rate to be left at 0.75%. Also, an updated estimate of the Euro-zone GDP for Q3 will be released, the previous estimate saw a 0.1% decline. EURUSD Daily: December 5, 2012 Dec 5, 2012 OctaFX.Com News Updates