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OctaFX.Com -Forex Analysis: US Dollar Resilient Despite Sharp S&P 500 Advance THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar managed to hold up near familiar technical levels despite a sharp rally in the S&P 500 that might have been expected to sink the haven currency. US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices are testing above resistance at 10044, the 32.8%Fibonacci expansion. This barrier is reinforced by rising trend line support-turned-resistance at 10064. A break above the latter level aims for the 50% level at 10082. Initial support is at 9995, the 23.6% expansion, with a reversal below that exposing a The US Dollar and Japanese Yen plunged overnight after the US Congress reached a last-minute deal averting the so-called “fiscal cliff”, scattering fears of a sharp austerity shock in the world’s largest economy and denting demand for the go-to safe haven currencies. The Senate voted in favor of the compromise measure by an overwhelming 89-8 margin in the early hours of Tuesday morning in Washington, DC. The House of Representatives followed suit by the evening, passing the measure with a 257-167 vote. Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0 S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices launched sharply higher in the aftermath of a deal to avert the fiscal cliff, taking out resistance at a falling trend line set from mid-September and exposing 1466.10. A break above that exposes the 1471.60-1474.90 area marked by the October 5 and September 14 swing highs. Initial support is at 1450.10, the December 19 top, with a break below that exposing the trend line at 1441.20 and former resistance at 1432.90. Jan 3, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Forex Strategy: Australian Dollar Sold Against Canadian Counterpart Strategy: Short AUDCAD at 1.0340, Targeting 1.0260 Prices retesting support-turned-resistance at the bottom of a previously broken rising channel having found initial support at 1.0260 marked by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. The overall fundamental backdrop appears to favor weakness, with priced-in expectations suggesting the RBA will continue to cut interest rates over the coming year while the BOC remains on hold. The recent bounce has improved risk/reward parameters and we will now enter short, initially aiming for a return to the 1.0260 level. A stop-loss will be triggered on a daily close above 1.0420. Mar 07, 2012 11:50

OctaFX.Com -Forex Analysis: Dollar, Yen Fall as Markets React to Fiscal Cliff Deal Talking Points US Dollar, Yen Plunge as Risk Appetite Swells on “Fiscal Cliff” Compromise Status-Quo Eurozone PMI, German CPI Data Unlikely to Derail Momentum Risk-On Mood May Find Added Fuel in December’s ISM Manufacturing Data The US Dollar and Japanese Yen plunged overnight after the US Congress reached a last-minute deal averting the so-called “fiscal cliff”, scattering fears of a sharp austerity shock in the world’s largest economy and denting demand for the go-to safe haven currencies. The Senate voted in favor of the compromise measure by an overwhelming 89-8 margin in the early hours of Tuesday morning in Washington, DC. The House of Representatives followed suit by the evening, passing the measure with a 257-167 vote. The so-called American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 delayed “sequestration” budget cuts created in 2011 by two months to give additional time for negotiation. Meanwhile, a broad-based increase in taxes was averted, instead allowing rates on incomes over $400,000 for individuals and $450,000 for families to increase from 35 to 39.6 percent. The bill also marked a phase-out of tax deductions and credits on incomes over $250,000 and the expiry of the payroll tax cut put in place in 2010. European stock index futures are trading sharply higher in late Asian trade, hinting the risk-on mood is likely to carry forward as traders return from the New Year holiday. Final revisions of December’s Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data set and a preliminary look at German CPI headline the economic calendar. No major changes are expected on either front, seemingly leaving little to stand in the way of existing momentum. The US ISM Manufacturing report may reinforce the chipper mood later in the day, with forecasts pointing to a return to expansionary territory with a print at 50.4 in December after a disappointing 49.5 result in the prior month. Jan 2, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

OctaFX.Com -Forex Analysis: EUR/USD Classic Technical Report 12.31.2012 Prices are probing below channel mid-line support at 1.3223 after putting in a bearish Gravestone Doji candlestick, with a break lower targeting the formation’s bottom at 1.3105. Near-term resistance is at 1.3283, the May 1 high, with a push above that exposing the March 27 top at 1.3384. Dec 31, 2012 OctaFX.Com News Updates

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OctaFX.Com -Forex Analysis: NZD/USD Classic Technical Report 12.27.2012 Prices moved lower as expected after putting in a Harami candlestick pattern below resistance at 0.8470, the February 29 high. Sellers pushed through support in the 0.8317-55 area and are now testing the bottom of a rising channel set from late July (0.8191). A break below that exposes 0.8052. The 0.8317-55 region is now acting as near-term resistance. Dec 27, 2012 OctaFX.Com News Updates

OctaFX.Com -European sentiment boosts S&P 500 U.S. stock futures are following Europe higher this morning as the Japanese yen weakens and investors bet that politicians in Washington will address the fiscal cliff. The S&P 500 is indicated to open higher by about one-quarter of a percent. France's CAC-40 is leading gains across the Atlantic with a gain of more than two-thirds of a percent, followed by London's FTSE-100. The bullish sentiment has increased in the last hour as the euro pushes higher. Japan's Nikkei was the top winner in Asia overnight, climbing almost 1 percent. There are still no clear signs that U.S. lawmakers will reach a deal with President Obama to avert tax increases and spending cuts at year-end. But the risk has been well known for months and investors appear increasingly comfortable that, even if the situation isn't fixed immediately, it will be addressed by early 2013 after the new Congress is seated. Worries about the fiscal cliff had caused the S&P 500 to pull back from multi-year highs between mid-October and mid-November. It's been rebounding since then and has been attempting to build support above its 50-day moving average in the last two weeks, which could be leading some chart watchers to expect further gains. In addition to the political news, the market has a full docket of economic data today. Weekly jobless claims will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by new home sales and consumer confidence at 10 a.m. ET. Foreign-exchange markets are painting a bullish picture this morning, while commodities are more negative. Currencies that tend to follow risk appetite--the euro, Australian dollar, and Canadian dollar--are all higher. The Japanese yen is also lower across the board, which tends to support equities because investors use it as a safe haven. Oil and copper, however, are modestly lower. Precious metals are down by almost half a percent, and most agricultural foodstuffs are posting small declines Dec 27, 2012 OctaFX.Com News Updates

OctaFX.Com -Gartman: Why I'm Selling Japanese Yen The Japanese government has given a "sell" signal for the yen, Dennis Gartman, editor of The Gartman Letter, said Wednesday on CNBC. On "Fast Money," Gartman said he was short of yen in US dollar, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar terms. Over the past six or seven months, Gartman added, the trade is working out. "I think it's abundantly clear that this new administration has made it very clear it intends to force the Bank of Japan to supply Japanese yen in unlimited terms," he said. ""I can't remember ever having heard that before. (More From CNBC: Forget Stocks? Why Shilling's Backing Bonds) "You have to remember, a government has a hard time strengthening its currency. But governments can very easily weaken their currencies simply by printing them. And when the Japanese said they're going to print them in an unlimited fashion, you have to believe them." Gartman said that Japan was "going to take rates to negative numbers before it's done." A decline in domestic consumption for Japan meant that its options were limited. " "They're going to have to continue to export goods and services out of Japan, and the only way they can do it is by devaluing the yen," Gartman said. "What do I care whether they can or cannot create inflation as long as they are going to create more yen? This is the first time we've seen an authority in Japan use the term 'unlimited,'" he said. An alternate trade was to buy Japanese equities, Gartman said. "I think the NIkkei is on its way to 15,000 over the course of the next several years," he added. "If you don't like trading currencies, trade the Nikkei because that's going to be a corollary to the Japanese yen itself." Dec 27, 2012 OctaFX.Com News Updates

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OctaFX.Com -Yen down as Japan gets a new government; U.S. shares gain NEW YORK/TOKYO (Reuters) - The yen fell to a 20-month low against the dollar on Wednesday after Japan swore in a new prime minister who has promised aggressive stimulus measures to rein in deflation, while U.S. stocks and oil rose in thin trading. The dollar rose to a 20-month high of 85.48 yen on trading platform EBS following the swearing-in of Shinzo Abe as premier. Traders eyed the dollar's 2011 high of 85.53 yen as the next target. Abe is calling for a mix of aggressive monetary policy easing and big fiscal spending to beat deflation and weaken the yen. He is pressuring the Bank of Japan to adopt a 2 percent inflation target that would auger for a weaker currency, threatening changes at the central bank if his wishes are not met. The euro rose as high as 112.92 yen on EBS, a 16-month high, and was last at 112.68 yen, up 0.8 percent. The euro was at $1.3244 against the dollar, up 0.5 percent. "The election of Abe has had a galvanizing effect on the dollar/yen exchange rate and he has been able to accomplish more in two months of jawboning than the BoJ has... over the past several years," said Boris Schlossberg, managing director of FX strategy at BK Asset Management in New York. U.S. shares were slightly higher in post-Christmas trading with Congress likely to resume negotiations to avoid the "fiscal cliff," a series of $600 billion in spending cuts and tax hikes that would slow the U.S. economy sharply unless lawmakers take action. A U.S. official said on Tuesday that President Barack Obama may return to Washington from his Hawaiian holiday as early as Wednesday evening to resume talks. The odds are increasing that Congress will not come to an agreement before the end of the year, however, leaving a series of big decisions to early 2013, when tax rates are scheduled to rise for most Americans. Economists warn that the world's largest economy could fall into recession. There is some concern that the impending tax hikes cut into holiday spending in the United States. Holiday-related sales were up 0.7 percent from October 28 through December 24, compared with a 2 percent increase in 2011, according to MasterCard Advisors SpendingPulse. Many markets remain closed following Christmas. European exchanges were largely shuttered, and Hong Kong and Australia were also closed. The Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI) was up 10.09 points, or 0.08 percent, at 13,149.17. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (.SPX) was down 0.95 points, or 0.07 percent, at 1,425.71. The Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC) was down 3.05 points, or 0.10 percent, at 3,009.55. U.S. single-family home prices rose in October for the ninth month in a row. The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas gained 0.7 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, stronger than the 0.5 percent rise forecast by economists polled by Reuters. Ten-year U.S. Treasury notes rose 4/32 of a point in price to yield roughly 1.7598 percent. The U.S. bond market was closed on Tuesday for Christmas. (US/) Brent crude climbed above $110 per barrel on Wednesday, hitting a two-month high, with investors hoping for a last-minute deal to avoid a U.S. fiscal crisis. U.S. crude futures gained $2.39, or 2.8 percent, to $91. (O/R) YEN WEAKENS The weaker yen has bolstered hopes for better earnings from Japanese companies and underpinned the Nikkei, which has gained some 18 percent since mid-November, when the election was scheduled. The yen has lost nearly 8 percent against the dollar in the same period. The Nikkei (.N225) closed at a nine-month high with a 1.5 percent gain on Wednesday. (.T) Minutes of the BOJ's policy-setting meeting in November, released on Wednesday, showed that some board members said the central bank must act decisively, without ruling out any policy options, if the outlook for the economy and prices worsens further. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.MIAPJ0000PUS> was little changed. Shanghai shares (.SSEC) were flat, but stayed in positive territory on the year after a 2.5 percent jump on Tuesday erased 2012 losses. It is set for a first annual gain in three years. Dec 26, 2012 OctaFX.Com News Updates

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OctaFX.Com -Watch out current Financial Analysis of OctaFX Click Here Dec 25, 2012 OctaFX.Com News Updates

OctaFX Merry christmas and Happy holidays Dear Clients and Partners! The Octa Markets Inc. is glad to congratulate you with Christmas and New Year! May the forthcoming holidays bring you a lot of joy and positive emotions from conversation with your families, friends, and colleagues. We wish you a favorable trend and a lot of profitable deals throughout 2013! Happy holidays! Sincerely yours, Octa Markets Start your successful trading with OctaFX today

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OctaFX.Com -Forex Analysis. Dollar, Yen Aim Higher as Fiscal Cliff Fears Escalate Talking Points Dollar, Yen Aim Higher on Haven Flows on Swelling “Fiscal Cliff” Fears Pre-Holiday Liquidity Drain, “Quadruple Witching” May Boost Volatility Supportive US Economic Data to be Overshadowed by Budget Deal Woes Risk sentiment appears to be crumbling as expected amid a lack of progress in US “fiscal cliff” negotiations. Divergent headlines pulled markets in opposing directions throughout the week but confidence began to crumble in earnest as plans to vote on the so-called “Plan B” – a unilateral Republican initiative aimed at raising taxes on millionaires – failed to secure enough support to warrant a vote. S&P 500 index futures are pointing sharply lower in late Asian trade, down nearly 1.6 percent having spiked down over 3 percent as the “Plan B” failure crossed the wires. This makes for an ominous sentiment signal as markets head into the final hours of the trading week, hinting a sharp pick-up in risk aversion is brewing. Volatility may also prove unusually intense as liquidity dries up ahead of the Christmas holiday. “Quadruple witching” – the simultaneous expiry of stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures – may complicate market conditions further. Continued risk aversion is likely to boost the US Dollar and Japanese Yen against their major counterparts. The final revision of third-quarter UK GDP figures headlines the economic calendar in European hours, with forecasts. Later in the day, the spotlight shifts to a busy US docket. November’s Personal Income and Spending figures as well as the Durable Goods Orders report are all due to cross the wires, with narrow improvements expected on all fronts. A revision of Decembers University of Michigan Consumer Confidence figure is also on tap. Here too, forecasters are pencilling in a slight upgrade. Cheerful economic news can hardly be expected to meaningfully underpin sentiment however absent a breakthrough on the “fiscal cliff” side of the equation. Dec 21, 2012 OctaFX.Com News Updates

OctaFX.Com -Forex Analysis. Dollar Traders Watch EUR/USD, AUD/USD After Overnight Risk Plunge Dollar Traders Watch EUR/USD, AUD/USD After Overnight Risk Plunge We were reminded this morning that these are not the kind of market and fundamental trading conditions that you can simply leave a risk-sensitive position unattended in. Through much of the active trading hours Thursday, speculative trends were tame and the safe haven dollar was left to drift in its ever-tightening range. With speculative participation already near 15-year lows (measured through S&P 500 futures open interest) and the FX Volatility Index dragging along at 5-year lows, there is the natural inclination to simply return to the sidelines while some even let their riskier positions collect yield. However, a lack of liquidity, markets dangling at extremes after an aggressive rally the past four weeks, and a serious unresolved risk in the US Fiscal Cliff does not make for a safe / passive trading environment. After the rather slow trading through Thursday’s session, volatility ripped through the markets during the morning hours of the Asian trading session – normally the quietest period for systemic activity. The catalyst was the market’s last, major threat through the end of the year: the countdown to the automatic US budget adjustments. Yesterday, after the White House and Republican Congressional leaders broke without any reported progress on the ongoing negotiations; Speaker Boehner said that a Plan B bill would be put through the House of Representatives. Both the Senate Majority Leader and President both said the proposed back up plan would never receive approval through their respective phases, so market-based Fiscal Cliff watchers should have already discounted the effort’s market influence. And yet, when news that there wasn’t enough support in the House to pass the bill hit the wires before 8 PM EST, the markets started to convulse. The most dramatic effect came through the S&P 500 futures which collapsed nearly 50 points in minutes. The failure of an effort that wouldn’t be taken seriously wasn’t likely what the markets were responding to, rather it was the suggestion that the House was in recess until after Christmas. If this critical branch of government is offline until next Wednesday, there is only four full days (fewer for reasonable negotiations) to push through a deal that averts automatic tax hikes and spending cuts that the Congressional Budget Office forecasts will pitch the US economy into recession in 2013. A deal can still be done, but the probabilities that it won’t are clearly starting to rise. The return of tail risk certainly exposes positions that are deemed ‘risky’. And yet, when we look at the risk sensitive majors (EURUSD, AUDUSD, GBPUSD) and incredibly overbought yen crosses (EURJPY, AUDJPY, NZDJPY), the reaction was tepid. A difference in market depth and speculative concentration no doubt has a lot to do with this. Now we watch to see whether a ‘flash’ reaction will have deeper implications for risk that leverage an 11th hour dollar rally. It is important to remember: next week will be largely drained of participation, but we also have the Quadruple Witching Friday expiration Friday. Euro Takes a Hit Through Risk Channels Overnight Over the past few weeks, there has been something of a collective sigh of relief amongst Euro traders as sovereign yield spreads, banking crises and sovereign aid payments have all found progress. This has certainly generated a serious push of support for the shared currency as it has risen against everyone of its counterparts over the past month. Yet, a relief rally is a passive move. An active catalyst can easily take the reins. The jump in the Spanish and Greek deficit along with the three-and-a-half year low in EZ consumer confidence stir a little concern, but outright risk aversion the tide that sinks all ships. In early Friday trade, the Euro is down against all but the New Zealand dollar. Australian and New Zealand Dollars Dive on US Fiscal Cliff Fears There are those that believe currency’s that bear a higher yield are in fact ‘safer’ than their counterparts because they produce return that offsets possible capital losses (a decline in the currency). However, when risk aversion kicks in, the need is to ‘free up’ capital to either cover losing trades or hold cash. We felt a little bit of that headwind this morning when the Fiscal Cliff headlines drove equity futures lower. The threat of a broader unwind of speculative positions before the general liquidity drain of next week can exacerbate already richly priced currencies. Japanese Yen Nudged Higher but Full Reversal Not Yet Confirmed After a consistent drive higher, the yen crosses have essentially leveled off the past two trading days. And, finally this morning, it seems like there may be the start of an effort to unwind late-in-the game speculative positions (not to mention a sudden demand for safety. The yen is up across the board this morning (from 0.6 to 1.0 percent) on the US fiscal fears, but we are not yet seeing a full blown freefall. British Pound: Short-Term GBPUSD Fear Reading at Record Low Generally, activity levels across the capital markets have receded over the past weeks, months and even years. That is why we find the FX Volatility Index at its five year low and the trend in S&P 500 volume dropping to multi-year lows itself. However, there are some that are even more inert than others. And, for the short-term risk measure of GBPUSD (one-week implied volatility); we find an incredible extreme – a record low below 4 percent. The pair is certainly more fundamentally stable than most, but such a lack of concern is worrisome. Canadian Dollar Faces Risk Winds Heading into Heavy Data Is the Canadian dollar the perfect blend of safe haven and investment appeal? With the IMF’s reserve status contemplation still lingering in the air, we found a surprise jump in domestic economic strength from Canada in the form of the biggest jump in retail sales since October 2011. A tame performance in the risk-off overnight will lead us into possible beta volatility and GDP, CPI data tomorrow. Gold Breaks Mid-Point of Year’s Range, Ignores Stalled Plan B News With the Fiscal Cliff activity through the overnight, gold’s tumble might make sense. Yet, the dollar hasn’t really taken off, a Fiscal Cliff would theoretically boost the metals value (through possibility of US downgrade) and the commodity actually made its drop before the drop. Yet, break the mid-point of the year’s range and 200-day moving average it did. The five-day slide is the biggest since July 10, 2011. Dec 21, 2012 OctaFX.Com News Updates

OctaFX.Com -Forex Analysis: NZD/USD Classic Technical Report 12.20.2012 Prices are moving lower as expected after putting in a Harami candlestick pattern below resistance at 0.8470, the February 29 high. Near-term support is in the 0.8317-55 area, with a drop below that exposing the rising channel support at 0.8175.Alternatively, a reversal above resistance targets the channel top at 0.8558. Dec 20, 2012 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Forex Strategy: Australian Dollar Sold Against Canadian Counterpart Strategy: Short AUDCAD at 1.0340, Targeting 1.0260 Prices retesting support-turned-resistance at the bottom of a previously broken rising channel having found initial support at 1.0260 marked by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. The overall fundamental backdrop appears to favor weakness, with priced-in expectations suggesting the RBA will continue to cut interest rates over the coming year while the BOC remains on hold. The recent bounce has improved risk/reward parameters and we will now enter short, initially aiming for a return to the 1.0260 level. A stop-loss will be triggered on a daily close above 1.0420. Mar 07, 2012 11:50

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OctaFX.Com - Forex News: Risk Appetite Sends Euro and Sterling to New Highs A risk-on attitude seems to have grasped the markets over the past 24-hours and the influence can be clearly seen in currency trading, as the risk-correlated Euro and sterling set new highs. Signs of risk appetite could be seen in equity trading, as the S&P climbed 1.15% in yesterday’s trading, and today European equities are showing decisive gains across the board. The Euro set new 7-month highs in today’s European session, most of the gains came shortly after the better than expected IFO German business sentiment survey. However, the reaction was delayed and may have been more of a reaction to general risk appetites. The rise in Euro happened at the same time a sudden rise in Greek bond prices led to what has so far been a 64 basis point drop in today’s trading. The rise in Greek bond prices follows the overnight S&P upgrade to Greek bond ratings. Greece’s sovereignty rating is now at B- with a stable outlook, up from a selective default rating. The British Pound set a new 3-month high against the US Dollar in today’s session following the release of the BoE minutes, which said that the vote to not raise asset purchases was 8-1. The yearly GBPUSD high currently sits at 1.63009. Also in today’s session, ECB’s Praet told the publication Le Firago that the threat of exits from the Euro has vanished. He also said that France needs to reform before the market attacks, as public spending is still too high. Outside of Europe, Japan PM Elect Abe said that monetary policy is not enough to beat deflation or correct a strong Yen. In New Zealand, Finance Minister English said that the country doesn’t have the tools to move its currency to a certain level. The New Zealand gross domestic product is set to be released later today. EURUSD is currently trading around 1.3270, and the pair could find resistance at a previous high of 1.3284. Support could be provided by a previous resistance around 1.3154. EURUSD Daily: December 19, 2012 Dec 19, 2012 OctaFX.Com News Updates

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OctaFX.Com -Forex Analysis: EUR/USD Classic Technical Report 12.18.2012 Prices broke above resistance at the top of a falling channel set from mid-September, a barrier reinforced by the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1.3090. The pair is now testing the September 14 high at 1.3168, with a break above that aiming for the 50% level at 1.3222. A Spinning Top candlestick coupled with negative RSI divergence of a pullback ahead however. The 1.3090 has been recast as support, with a push below that exposing the 23.6% Fib at 1.2924. Dec 18, 2012 OctaFX.Com News Updates

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