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Forex: GBP/USD rejected from 1.5215 The recovery of the pound against the dollar stalled once again at the 1.5215 area, where the 100-hour SMA reinforces static resistance. GBP/USD then fell back below the 1.5200 mark and even hit a fresh daily low of 1.5127, weighed by BoE's Tucker saying "real fx rates need to be lower". However, GBP/USD found support and managed to recover some ground. The pair is currently trading around 1.5160, where it remains virtually unchanged since opening. "Cable tried moving up but is facing resistance near 1.5200-15 levels. The bigger trend remains bearish and a failure to rise past 1.5200-15 will be a signal that the short covering is losing steam and a fall towards 1.4850 can well be seen in the coming days", says the Kshitij Consultancy Services Team. "A rise above 1.52 can push it further towards 1.5250-300". OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 26, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Forex Flash: Fed's Bernanke speech about QE as main focus – TD Securities More important than US housing reports (house prices for December and new home sales for January) and Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for February (“where markets are looking for a bounce from the 14-month low of 58.6 up to 61.2”), TD Securities analysts point to Fed Bernanke’s semi-annual testimony to the Senate Banking Committee at 15:00 GMT as the main focus of the day. “This will be the first update since the Fed adopted open-ended QE, and there is little doubt that Congress will be interested in exactly how and when the Fed will end the program”, wrote analyst Annette Beacher. “Aside from Bernanke’s updated outlook on the economy (probably slightly more upbeat), the market will be looking for any further clarification on when QE will end and what specific triggers the Fed may use to gauge the end of the program”, she added. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 26, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

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Forex: USD/CAD testing Friday’s tops, around 1.0260 The Canadian dollar is depreciating against the buck on Monday, breaking above the congestion range between 1.0220 and 1.0240 to revisit Friday’s highs around 1.0260, as risk aversion is creeping back to the markets, “USD/CAD has run into better selling interest in the mid 1.02 area since Friday but the chart patterns suggest consolidation rather than a reversal in what remains, in our opinion, a very strongly-entrenched bull trend across a range of timeframes… We rather expect USD losses to remain limited currently and for USD dips will remain well supported and are a buy”, assessed the research team at TD Securities. USD/CAD is up 0.35% at 1.0260 with the next resistance at 1.0342 (high Jun.29) ahead of 1.0363 (high Jun.28) and then 1.0382 (high Jun.6). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.0113 (MA10d) would expose 1.0101 (high Jan.25) and then 1.0055 (low Feb.18). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 25, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Forex: GBP/USD trapped around 1.5110/20 The sterling continues its march north on Monday, advancing above the key level at 1.5100, as investors continue to digest the UK’s sovereign debt≠≠≠ downgrade by agency Moody’s. Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst at BTMU, commented, “With fiscal policy set to remain tight, the burden to stimulate growth remains upon the BoE through looser monetary policy, and a weak/weaker pound”. The analyst added that a fragile external demand could hamper any support from a weak GBP, and these efforts could echo in higher inflation, affecting real incomes and consumption. As of writing, GBP/USD is up 0.09% at 1.5108 facing the next resistance at 1.5330 (high Feb.22) ahead of 1.5393 (MA10d) and finally 1.5452 (high Feb.20). On the downside, a breach of 1.5073 (hourly low Feb.25) would bring 1.4949 (low Jul.12 2010) en route to 1.4873 (low Jul.1 2010). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 25, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Forex Flash: 10-year US treasuries await Fed testimony tomorrow – RBS Markets continue to see a near-term 1.70% to 2.11% range in 10-year US treasuries Monday – According to the RBS Research Team, “key resistance remains at 2.11% in 10yrs. We recommend watching for ascending bear channel lines (1.945% in 10-years and 3.135% in bonds) – a break of which could extend the rally while a close above 2.11% in 10-years opens up 2.30%.” Treasuries are little changed as markets await Ben Bernanke's testimony tomorrow and following the exit polls of the Italian election. Once past these, market focus is likely to shift to month end and a decent Treasury extension along with a likely trip over the Sequester cliff at the end of the week. China's HSBC Flash PMI slipped to a 4-month low but Japanese stocks rallied sharply on word that Kuroda of the ADB would likely become the next BOJ Governor. EU spreads see semi-core little changed and peripherals modestly tighter. Moody's warned that the recent European Commission forecast for economic contraction this year is a credit negative for all European sovereigns. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 25, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

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Forex Flash: Spain remains on the edge - BBH Brown Brothers Harriman analysts note that Spain´s situation remains notably precarious, with EC calculations showing Spain as having ran a budget deficit of 10.2% of GDP last year, the most in three years. They comment that it projects that a deficit this year of 6.7%, which seems a Herculean task to meet. They finish by writing, “There has been some suggestion that Spain could be given more time to reach its deficit targets, but given the lack of progress last year and some backtracking this year, it too may undermine credibility.” OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 22, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

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Bearish pressure increases on the Euro The European currency extended its decline against the dollar on Thursday amid renewed signs the euro zone economy is struggling after the region's PMI came in lower than expected. Besides, the US dollar remains underpinned expectations the Fed may stop providing monetary stimulus after yesterday's FOMC minutes. "As markets continue to digest the news, the evolving view is that the minutes might not be quite as hawkish as first perceived, but they are still hawkish enough to have global equity markets under significant pressure today and the greenback and yen benefiting from the unsettled market backdrop", says Nick Bennenbroek, Head of Currency Strategy at Wells Fargo Bank. "Next week's testimony from Fed Chairman Bernanke now takes on added importance as a barometer of whether the minutes simply reflect ongoing discussion, or a real changed in the Fed's policy view". Elsewhere, the pound fell to a 2 ½-year low versus the greenback although it managed to trim losses, while the yen strengthened dragging USD/JPY below the 93.00 mark. Stocks and oil are broadly lower on risk aversion, but gold advanced slightly. Euro falls below trendline support The EUR/USD broke below the 1.3200 psychological level, and more importantly below an ascendant trendline coming off July 2012 lows, turning the immediate term and longer term bearish for the cross. A close below this level would reinforce the bearish perspective with 1.3110 as next target (100-day SMA) ahead of the 1.3070 zone (38.2% retracement of the 1.2041/1.3710 rally). On the upside, the 1.3235 area offers immediate resistance to the EUR/USD, but the pair would need to regain the 1.3300 level to ease the immediate pressure. In this regard, the BBH analyst team notes that "serious technical damage" is being inflicted. "The euro is falling through the uptrend drawn off last July (Draghi-induced) lows", they commented. "It comes in just below $1.3200 today. The next technical target is near $1.3070-80". Meanwhile, Wells Fargo analysts note that for the balance of the week their view remains tilted to U.S. dollar strength and foreign currency weakness "as market potentially remain somewhat unsettled after the Fed comments, and depending on whether Germany’s IFO confidence survey shows similar weakness to today's Eurozone confidence data". OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 21, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Forex Flash: NZD/USD uptrend hinges on stability above 0.8300 – Westpac The RBNZ inflation expectations survey (Tuesday) will be the week’s highlight for markets. According to Global Strategist Sean Callow at Westpac, “We don’t expect a dramatic reversal of the 18-month decline in expectations just yet, indeed the last few CPI prints have been surprisingly low so this survey has downside risk.” The other important release is the Q4 terms of trade (Monday), which could surprise with a bounce based on lower import prices (currency effect). Migration (Wednesday), trade balance (Wed), building permits (Thursday) and business confidence (Thursday) complete a busy week. Ultimately, “the 9 month long uptrend is at risk if 0.8300 below gives way. Global sentiment has soured during the past two days, and RBNZ Governor Wheeler talked the NZD moderately lower in a speech earlier this week. Should the Italian elections this weekend scare the bulls, the extreme long positioning in the NZD would be at risk of being pared. If 0.8300 holds, however, we will retain positive multi-month bias towards 0.8570 next.” writes Callow. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 21, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Forex: USD/JPY wavers after US data USD/JPY wavered smoothly, rising to 93.20 and then pulling back to the 93.10 area, as investors continue to assess the latest string of US data, which showed jobless claims rose more than expected last week, while consumer prices were flat overall in January. USD/JPY is currently trading around 93.10, still down 0.5% on the day, having bounced from a low of 92.78 during the European session. As for technical levels, on the upside immediate resistances are seen at 93.52 (100-hour SMA), followed by 93.85 (intraday high). On the other hand, supports could be found at 92.78 (intraday low) and 92.65 (21-day SMA). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 21, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

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Forex: AUD/USD trading at support near 1.0310 The AUD/USD has spent the afternoon of European trading in a tailspin, as the yesterday’s gains now seem like a distant memory. After the publication of US data, the pair has found traction at the 1.0310 support, where the pair is presently testing in these moments, already suffering a decline of -0.41%. In the United States, Building Permits (MoM) were reported at 0.925M in January, beating estimates of only 0.915M. Meanwhile the vaunted Producer Price index ex Food and Energy (MoM and YoY) grew +0.2% in January (in line with expectations of +0.2%), and +1.8% (exceeding projections calling for only +1.6%) respectively. Finally, the Producer Price Index (MoM and YoY) climbed only +0.2% in January (slightly missing a consensus of +0.3%) and yielded +1.4% in January (consistent with projections) respectively. According to the Technical Analyst Team at ICN.com, “The AUD/USD dropped sharply towards 1.0310, however we still think that the possibility for positivity is valid in that the pair couldn’t break 1.0275 levels. Moreover, the linear regression indicators worry us with negativity, but at the same time we will count on stability above the mentioned support at 1.0275 to keep the suggested scenario valid.” ICN.com analysts posit the next supports at 1.0310, then 1.0275 and finally 1.0220. Should the pair initiate from a prolonged recovery, a break below the 1.0345 resistance will usher in the additional means of corrective structures at 1.0385 and 1.0400. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 20, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

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Forex: EUR/USD still finds opposition around 1.3370 The EUR/USD spiked to 1.3373 high on the release of very appealing German and Eurozone economic sentiment figures by the ZEW February survey, at 48.2 and 42.4, respectively. After trading below the opening price throughout the rest of the European session, the market strengthened back to its highs on US money flows and just ahead of US NAHB housing market index. The Housing Market Index by NAHB was expected to rise from 47 to 48 in February, but actual data points to a drop to 46, disappointing investors. The pair could only rise to as high as 1.3372 and is currently stuck at 1.3360/70. “The EUR/USD currency pair continues consolidating inside a narrow trading range near the level of 1.3330”, wrote Roboforex.com analyst Igor Sayadov, expecting the pair to extend the downside towards 1.3240. “After reaching this target, the pair may make a reverse to start a new ascending movement”; he added. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 19, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Forex: EUR/USD still finds opposition around 1.3370 The EUR/USD spiked to 1.3373 high on the release of very appealing German and Eurozone economic sentiment figures by the ZEW February survey, at 48.2 and 42.4, respectively. After trading below the opening price throughout the rest of the European session, the market strengthened back to its highs on US money flows and just ahead of US NAHB housing market index. The Housing Market Index by NAHB was expected to rise from 47 to 48 in February, but actual data points to a drop to 46, disappointing investors. The pair could only rise to as high as 1.3372 and is currently stuck at 1.3360/70. “The EUR/USD currency pair continues consolidating inside a narrow trading range near the level of 1.3330”, wrote Roboforex.com analyst Igor Sayadov, expecting the pair to extend the downside towards 1.3240. “After reaching this target, the pair may make a reverse to start a new ascending movement”; he added. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 19, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Forex Flash: Antipodean monetary policy expectations to diverge – ANZ Looking ahead, we expect monetary policy expectations to move in opposite directions again as the Australian market prices in a less aggressive easing profile and the NZ market prices out rate hikes. In New Zealand, the market has moved to price in 80% odds of a rate hike by October. The 2-year swap rate has surged as a consequence. Markets can and will lurch from one extreme to the other. However, we are cognizant that the NZ dollar trade-weighted index has hit a record high in the past week (partly due to weakness in this cross), thereby tightening NZ financial conditions. We are also mindful of NZ’s contractionary fiscal stance; and the potential for macro-prudential policy to take pressure off the RBNZ. These factors do not, in our view, lend themselves to a 2013 commencement in the rate hike cycle. And as such, we expect rates to moderate in NZ. By contrast, the RBA has scope to ease as today’s February minutes have again made clear. We expect cuts in June and November. However, there appears to be growing fears in the market that the RBA are done for now. This is a vulnerability and may place further upward pressure on AUD short end rates OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 19, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Session Recap: USD mixed. Range trading prevails Following a long-weekend in the US, FX markets resumed full volume trading but consolidative moves prevail. Sentiment received a boost in the wake of stellar ZEW survey, but wasn´t strong enough to take EUR/USD out of its recent range. While the pound remains vulnerable amid chatter of a possible UK downgrade, the yen strengthened versus the euro and the dollar. The Aussie rose after the RBA minutes, but Loonie´s weakness persisted, with USD/CAD reaching a 7-month high. Main Headlines in Europe (in chronological order): Commodities Brief – Precious metals hold onto Asian gains amidst modest rise Spanish T-Bill auction results – top end of target Spain meets top end of target at bond auction Germany: ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment rises to 48.2 points in February EMU: ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment climbs more than expected in February EMU: Construction Output declines 1.7% in December French President Hollande -”must give Greece every chance “ European markets cheer positive ZEW survey Rehn proposes loosening deficit targets for distressed Member States Bundesbank’s Weidmann – G20 communique important signal that economic weakness can not be fought with protectionism and currency manipulation. UK unlikely to be downgraded before budget OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 19, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

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Forex Flash: What was real Chinese GDP growth in 2012? Stephen Green of Standard Chartered Global research questions whether China´s official GDP announcements are reliable or actual GDP growth is closer to 5.5%. Green begins by commenting that if there was an index for suspicion about China´s official statistics, it would be off the chart. While the global financial crisis added plenty of statistical smog, the issue with Chinese data is not new but scepticism has to be reasonable deployed as some numbers are better than others and the problems vary across different data sets. He notes that headline statistics are particularly important. He writes, “The government has very clear annual GDP targets, and these numbers hit newspaper headlines. We believe the GDP numbers, especially the first prints, are possibly subject to smoothing at times of super-fast or unusually slow growth. We have previously explored various proxies to track the industrial and investment cycle (electricity, freight, diesel, and concrete production, for instance).” Green notes that consumption is trickier to monitor, though he does like “KFC same-store, car and Hong Kong retail sales, to name a few proxies.” Across the board, he notes that the proxies told the same story from Q3-2011 onwards: an economy slowing significantly through to Q3-2012, before those shoots did their green thing in Q4. The official y/y GDP numbers, however, attempt to tell a different story: pretty stable growth. The official q/q numbers suggest that Q3 was actually the strongest quarter in 2012. Questioning why this is the case, he notes that one e hypothesis is that there is a problem with the GDP deflator, i.e., the number that is used to measure overall inflation and that gets us from nominal to real growth. He cites two studies which conclude that service-sector inflation is underestimated within the GDP deflator. Considering Chinese inflation, he feels that it is not too bad, despite still having some obvious issues however. Overall, he notes that growth boomed in 1992 with Deng Xiaoping‟s revival of reform, but then slowed sharply with Zhu Rongji‟s retrenchment policies of the mid-1990s. The economy was further weakened by domestic restructuring and the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997-98. Then, with the state-enterprise reforms of the mid-1990s feeding through, China‟s entry into the WTO in 2001, and strong global growth, China‟s economy took off again in 2001, peaking out in 2007. From that point Green notes that growth has slowed considerably since the height of the stimulus. he writes, “Our guesstimates for the past two years look considerably weaker than the official estimates: our guesstimates for 2011 and 2012 are 7.2% and 5.5%, respectively, compared with the official prints of 9.3% and 7.3%.” He continues to explain that “When we say guesstimates, that is exactly what we mean. We have to use official data to question official data; we do not have access to an independent nationwide assessment of service-sector inflation, and it requires a leap of faith to choose the alternative services series we have.” OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 18, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Forex Flash: EUR/USD to target 1.3000 in three-month window – UBS Alongside the current account data, the ECB is also due to release December's portfolio flow data today. The creation of the ECB's OMT program has had a stabilizing effect on sovereign bond markets, which triggered a return of exiled capital in November. In fact portfolio inflows are now much larger than those associated with the current account surplus. We expect this pattern to continue in December as memories of the crisis fade a little further. However, “when netted-off against outflows by Eurozone residents, the portfolio effect on the currency is more muted than it first appears. There has been no repeat of the enormous repatriation seen in Q4 2008, and Eurozone investors were net buyers of overseas assets in November. Also, like the temporary current account surplus, the return of portfolio inflows can only go so far. Ultimately, we expect broad-based dollar strength to come through later this year, taking the EUR/USD back down to 1.3000 in 3m.” writes Research Analyst Gareth Berry at UBS. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 18, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Italian campaign works to swing remaining voters in final week before election Italian voters have braced for the impact of an upcoming onslaught of tax-cut promises and attacks on the European Union as the four leading candidates begin the final stretch of the campaign, taking to airwaves and a mad scramble to visit to all corners of the republic before the polls are opened. After a prolonged period of suspense and campaigning, Italy goes to the polls February. 24-25 in the first parliamentary election since Europe’s sovereign debt crisis roiled the political establishment into a proverbial maelstrom. However, despite the recent buildup, nearly 20% of Italian voters are still fair game to the candidates, which pollsters say constitutes a large enough proportion as to potentially decide the election in the final week. However, the immediate risk is an inconclusive result that denies victory to any and leads to gridlock, requiring a second vote. “The biggest issue is, is it going to be easy to form a government?” wrote Marc Ostwald, a rates strategist at Monument Securities Ltd. in London. Silvio Berlusconi kicks off the week with a rally today in Milan, capital of the battleground region of Lombardy near the Alpine foothills. The former premier will reiterate his pledge to hand out more than $5 billion in property-tax refunds as he seeks to build a blocking minority in the Senate. Berlusconi’s main rival, front-runner, Pier Luigi Bersani may appear on the other end of Italy in Cosenza, Calabria. The duel between Bersani and Berlusconi, whose respective forces have dominated Italian politics since 1994, is muddied by the campaigns of Prime Minister Mario Monti, a professor-turned- politician at age 69, and comedian Beppe Grillo. Monti has sought to position himself as a kingmaker by courting both Bersani and the forces backing Berlusconi. Grillo has excluded alliances and embraced the role of spoiler. Italians face trying times as they are being called to vote with the economy in a quagmire, culminating in its fourth recession since 2001, and having contracted for six quarters through the final three months of last year. However, despite Italy’s 10-year government bond yield, which reached a euro-era record of 7.261% on Nov. 25, 2011, the yields were holding fast at just 4.409% earlier today. The election outcome “remains highly uncertain,” Giada Giani, an economist at Citigroup Inc. wrote in a research report last week. “Small moves in the votes can lead to large swings in the Senate seat allocation.” The upper house of Italy’s parliament is where Bersani, a former communist and labor-union favorite, is most vulnerable as seats are doled out on a regional basis, rendering national popularity less meaningful. Bersani will probably need a post- vote alliance with Monti to secure a majority, a move that would please bond investors satisfied with the premier’s 15-month tenure, according to Citigroup and Eurasia Group. Bersani had 33.8% support in an SWG Institute survey published February 8, the day before Italy’s two-week polling blackout began. That compares with 27.8% for Berlusconi, 18.8% for Grillo and 13.4% for Monti. According to Italian election law, bonus seats are handed out in both the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies, allowing a party to secure a majority without winning 50% of the votes. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 18, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

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