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Generalized Forex Forecast for 08 – 12 August 2016 First, a review of last week’s forecast: as to EUR/USD, the pair met expectations of both those experts supporting its rise to the area of 1.1250 and those predicting that the pair would start going south. So earlier in the week the pair surged upwards, reaching the mark of 1.1235 on Tuesday, and afterwards it reversed and showed an equal plunge. Acting of the pair on Friday was somewhat surprising, when the USA data were announced. As a reminder, the forecast reckoned that NFP could drop from 287k to 175k. Actual value (255k) indeed came out lower than the previous one, but not enough to meet expectations of the market. Eventually instead of weakening, the greenback strengthened its positions, rebounding by over 100 points versus euro. However then the pair returned to the pivot point of the last six weeks – to the area of 1.1090; GBP/USD. Uncertain situation with Brexit seems to balance the powers of bulls and bears for long. That’s why 75% of experts, backed by the technical analysis, believed that the pair would continue its horizontal movement within the range of 1.3050–1.3335. This is exactly what happened – neither ECB meeting, held on Wednesday, nor news from the Bank of England, released on Thursday, nor NFP data, released on Friday, could drive it out of this channel. Eventually the pair ended the week virtually at the lower boundary of the predetermined range – at 1.3060; giving forecast for USD/JPY, experts failed to form any consensus - 30% of analysts reckoned that the pair would try to go down to the level of 100.00, 40% of experts believed that it won’t be able to break through the support of 101.50, and, finally, the rest 30% voted for its sideways movement. Infact, on the second try the pair could break through the level of 101.50, and having turned it into the resistance, it changed over to a sideways trend, where it had consolidated till the release of NFP, whereby it returned to the area it had started the week from - 102.00; USD/CHF – as it was expected, earlier in the week the pair was moving in a sideways channel within 0.9660–0.9720, and afterwards it went down. However, it failed to get to the support of 0.9500, when rebounded from the last week’s low it reversed and, being supported by the news from Europe and the USA, it moved upwards, wrapping up the week around the key level of the last two years - 0.9800. Forecast for the Upcoming Week. Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested : as to EUR/USD, most experts concur that the down trend, started on August 2, will continue, and the next target for the pair will be the support within 1.0950–1.1000. 85% of indicators on H4 and D1 as well as the graphical analysis on H1 and H4 agree to this scenario. With this, the graphical analysis specifies that early in the week the pair may tick up to the upper boundary of the down trend – up to 1.1130, having bounced off which it will go down to the support of 1.1035, and then even further down to 1.0950. If the resistance of 1.1130 is broken through, the pair can rise up to the next resistance of 1.1170, which is at the upper boundary of a three-month descending channel, which had begun on May 3. The third resistance will be at 1.1220; 70% of experts expect GBP/USD to rebound upwards from the lower boundary of the horizontal channel of 1.3050–1.3335, and according to them it will keep within this range for a few days. The remaining 30% of analysts, backed by the graphical analysis on D1, believe that the increased volatility of the pair will allow it to expand this range up to the levels of 1.2800 and 1.3500. In this case the upwards rebound should be expected already from this channel of 1.2800. Early next week we’ll see which of this scenarios will play out, however, it should be mentioned that all 100% of experts predict that during August the price will retest the bottom within 1.2700–1.2800 again for sure; as to the future of USD/JPY, the majority of experts share the same opinion that the down trend of the entire 2016 has not finished yet, and the pair should be expected to go down first to the support of 100.00, and then further down to 98.90. With this, according to the graphical analysis on Н4, it is possible that before plunging the pair will first try to reach the upper boundary of this long-term descending channel (clearly seen on D1), which is at the area of 103.50–104.00; as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, the half of experts believes that the pair will try to consolidate above the level of 0.9800. 95% of indicators on H4 and 80% on D1 agree with this. The rest 50% of analysts, backed by the graphical analysis on H4 reckon that the level of 0.9800 will become rather a pivot point, alongside which the pair will be moving within 0.9735–0.9900, than a support. Roman Butko, NordFX Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

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Generalized Forex Forecast for 01 – 05 August 2016 First, a review of last week’s forecast: as to EUR/USD one alternative forecast suggested that the pair would move in a sideways channel with the support of0.9550 andthe pivotpointof 1.1000. The United States Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision and the corresponding statements, due to be released on Wednesday, were supposed to change this trend. And that was the case: the miracle didn’t happen, to the utter disappointment of investors, the interest rate was kept on hold at 0.5%, and thus the greenback fell against euro by around 200 points; GBP/USD. The powers of bulls and bears turned out to be almost equal, and for the second consecutive week the pair had been moving within the range of 1.3070–1.3290 with the pivotpointof 1.3200. Bearish sentiment was expected to predominate at the market, but news from the USA weighed in on here, whereby the pair ticked up a little bit and transited from the lower boundary of the sideways channel to the upper one; the forecast for USD/JPY reckoned that the retracement was over, and, having broken the support of 105.50, the pair would go south to the next support in the area of 103.50. But a reservation, declaring that the Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision could make certain adjustments, was also made here. And as it turned out to be higher as it was expected (–0.1% versus expected –0.2%), yen reinforced its positions against the US dollar even more, reaching the level of 102.00 by the end of the week; USD/CHF – as it was expected, till the mid-week the pair kept bullish biasand went up to the mark of 0.9950. And then, as often happens during coming out of headline news, mirrored the acting of EUR/USD, and, having broken through the support levels of 0.9840 and 0.9800, it went down, wrapping up the week at 0.9700 - the area of the third support, indicated by experts. Forecast for the Upcoming Week. Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested : as to EUR/USD, opinions of experts were split equally. 50% of them, backed by the graphical analysis on H1 as well as by 90% of indicators on H4 and on D1, tend to believe that the pair will continue rising and try to consolidate in the area of 1.1250–1.1300. As for the second half of experts, in their opinion the pair is currently keeping within the upper boundary of the range of 1.0955–1.1190, having bounced off which it should start going south. With this it should be taken into account that on August 5, 2016 NFP data – the key indicator of economic health of the USA - will be released, and they usually result in plummeting of exchange rate of buck. According to some forecasts NFP for this month can drop from 287kto 175k; Brexit picture is still mixed, that’s why 75% of experts, backed by the graphical analysis and indicators on D1, believe that GBP/USD will continue its horizontal movement within the range of 1.3050–1.3335 with the pivotpointof 1.3200. And only 15% of analysts do not rule out the possibility that it will try to retest July lows in the area of 1.2800 again. NFP data as well as ECB meeting on Wednesday and a series of headline news from the Bank of England, due to be released on Thursday, August 04, can influence formation of a new trend; as to the future of USD/JPY, 30% of analysts in line with 100% of indicators reckon that the pair will try to go down to the level of 100.00. Almost 40% of experts and the graphical analysis on ?4 andD1 do not agree with this version. In their opinion the level of 101.50 will become a strong support to the pair, and backing on it, the pair will make attempts to reach the resistance of 103.60, and if it will be broken through – even get to 106.50. And, finally, the third scenario is offered by remaining 30% of analysts, voting for a sideways trend alongside the pivotpointof 102.50; as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, here experts along with the graphical analysis on H4 predict that the pair will move in a sideways channel of 0.9660–0.9720 for a while, and afterwards it will go down to the support of 0.9500. Such a scenario will be more likely if the forecast for change in NFP will turn out to be correct. Roman Butko, NordFX Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

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Generalized Forex Forecast for 25 – 29 July 2016 First, a review of last week’s forecast: as to EUR/USD, the majority of experts believed that the pair would continue moving in a sideways channel. This prediction may be deemed as panned out, if we consider the month range of 1.0970–1.1180, at which the pair appeared to stall after Brexit. With this, it should be mentioned that only 25% of analysts predicted that the pair would go down and strive to retest the low of June 24 at the level of 1.0900, and there are only around 50-60 points left before it reaches this level; GBP/USD. The powers of bulls and bears turned out to be almost equal, and during the entire week the pair had been fluctuating within 1.3070–1.3290 with the pivotpointof 1.3200, which complies with the low of June 24 and which is due to absence of any significant news in respect of Brexit; the forecast about acting of USD/JPY was 100% fulfilled. The analysts reckoned that the upward rebound,seen two weeks ago, was only a retracement. In their opinion the pair should change over to the sideways movement with the resistance at 106.50, which it virtually did. The area of 107.80 was indicated as the next resistance, which the pair tried to reach on Thursday, but as the experts expected, the powers of bulls weakened, and the pair returned to the level of 106.00; USD/CHF – as it was expected, the pair kept bullish bias, however, so far it failed to get to the level of 1.0000. Having bounced off the support of 0.9800, the pair soared to the high of 0.9800, but afterwards it rebounded downwards again and wrapped up the week at the level of 0.9860. Forecast for the Upcoming Week Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested : as to EUR/USD, 70% of experts, backed by 100% of indicators, tend to believe that during the upcoming week or two the pair will make attempts to reach the level of 1.0900. The remaining 30% of analysts and the graphical analysis on H1 represent an alternativeviewpoint, they reckon that for a while the pair will continue moving in a sideways channel with the support of0.9550 andthe pivotpointof 1.1000. The United States Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision and the corresponding statements on Wednesday may change this trend; Brexit picture is so mixed, that the graphical analysis for GBP/USD on allmain time frames doesn’t allow making any forecasts. As to the majority of experts (75%), in their view bearish sentiment continues at the market, and the pair, having finished the retracement, will strive to the support within 1.2850–1.2900, and 95% of indicators on Н4 andD1 agree with this scenario; opinions of the analysts and indicators as well as the graphical analysis about the future of USD/JPY can be narrowed down to the thing, that the pair will continue moving in a sideways channel, and afterwards, having bounced off the resistance in the area of 107.40–107.60, will go south and, having broken through the support of 105.50, will go down by further 200 points – to the support of 103.50. But here, Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision, released in the early Friday morning, can make certain adjustments; as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, everything remains unchanged: the bullish bias of the pair attempting to reach the level of 1.0000, the pivotpointat 0.9880, the first support will be at 0.9840, the second – at 0.9840, and if it will be broken through – fall to the level of 0.9700. Roman Butko, NordFX Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

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