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Forex Forecast EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 24 – 28 October 2016 First, a review of last week’s forecast: predicting the future of EUR/USD, most experts (60%), backed by 100% of indicators on H4 and D1, expected the pair to go down to the lows of February-March - 1.0800-1.0825. It was just a question of time this process would take. The level of 1.0900 was indicated as the short-term support. Indeed, that support was a short-term one, and the pair got over it on Friday easily, than having declined to the level of 1.0860. It was followed by a small rebound, and the pair ended the week at the level of 1.0885; as a reminder, giving the forecast for GBP/USD 70% of analysts, backed by the graphical analysis on H4, reckoned that in the near future the pair would not fall below the level of 1.2100 and it would move in a sideways channel of 1.2100-1.2330. That forecast was 100% fulfilled. The low of the week was recorded at the level of 1.2135 on Monday. Several attempts the pair made on Tuesday and Wednesday to break through the resistance failed, and it wrapped up the week almost in the middle of the specified side channel - at the level of 1.2230; USD/JPY. Here, the graphical analysis provided the most accurate forecast, it predicted that the pair would go down and transit to the sideways trend within 102.80–104.30. Indeed, the pair started declining since the very first moment of opening of the week session and during all five days it kept within the side channel within 103.16–104.35; USD/CHF pair continues moving insistently towards its main target – the high of 1.0100. With this, last week the part of analysts reckoned that the pair was in for a temporary rebound. But 40%of them were adamant that before going down it should reach the mark of 0.9950 for sure. The pair not only met the target, but also beat it a little bit, moving up to the level of 0.9962 within a week. Forecast for the Upcoming Week. Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested : talking about the future of EUR/USD 70% of experts reckon that the pair will continue its declining at least to the level of 1.0800. 100% of indicators on H4 and D1 agree with this scenario. The decline can be even greater if forecast on state of economy of the USA will be proved true. Some readings for September will be announced on Thursday, October 27, and annual data on GDP – on Friday, October 28. The analysts expect them to be rather positive for US dollar, which can drop the pair further. As a reminder, last year the pair fell below the level of 1.0500 repeatedly. Around 30% of experts and the graphical analysis on H4, which draws in first a sideways movement of the pair within 1.0855–1.0915 and then upswing to the level of 1.0960, hold an alternative view. The next resistance will be at 1.1100; GBP/USD. Here, around 80% of analysts, backed by 70% of indicators, reckon that in the near future the pair will start declining first to the level of 1.2100, and then – to 1.2000. As for the graphical analysis, according to its readings early week the pair will keep within 1.2135–1.2300 for some time, and then its volatility will increase up to 1.2000–1.2430. The governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, and president of the ECB, Mario Draghi, will speak on Tuesday, their speeches can influence forming of a new trend, as well as the aforesaid data on the US economy. It should be noted that in a longer term opinion of analysts is changing, and over 55% of them expect the pair to rise to the area of 1.2800–1.3000 by the New Year; USD/JPY. For the fourth week in a row the opinions of experts in respect of the future of this pair split almost equally: 40% vote for its rise, 40% - for its fall, 20% - for a sideways trend with the pivot point of 103.45. If we add readings of 70% of indicators and the graphical analysis to this variety of opinions, in the near future we can expect the pair to upswing first to the level of 105.00, and then fall to the support in the area of 103.20. The next support will be at 102.80. Coming back to the opinions of the experts, it may be noted that in the medium term already 65% of them reckon that the pair will surely reach the high of 105.00; as for the forecast for USD/CHF, here everything is unchanged: around 60% of analysts, 90% of indicators and the graphical analysis on H4 vote for another breakthrough of the pair to the north – this time to the high of 1.0000, and then bouncing off to the area of 0.9700-0.9800. The remaining 40% of experts believe that the pair will reverse southwards, failing to reach this benchmark level. The nearest support levels will be at 0.9855 and 0.9820, then – at 0.9765 and 0.9695. Roman Butko, NordFX Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

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Forex Forecast EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 17 – 21 October 2016 First, a review of last week’s forecast: referring the future EUR/USD, the overwhelming majority of experts (90%) predicted that the pair would decline to the area of 1.1000, which did happen. First with a single bound it travelled 220 points by Thursday, then it stalled at the level of 1.0985, following which we saw a 70 points rebound, in a result of which many traders, using averaging of positions, could recover from a deep drawdown and catch a break. Then the pair again reversed to the south and on Friday evening it made a second attempt to consolidate below the support of 1.1000, wrapping up the week at the level of 1.0970; as for the future of GBP/USD, the graphical analysis on H4 turned out to be right, it expressly pointed to continuation of the descending trend, which had begun on September 06. The levels of 1.2340 and 1.2120 were indicated as the support levels. This scenario panned out almost entirely. As early as Tuesday during the Asian session the pair easily got over the first support turning it into the resistance, and it sharply plunged further. Inertia of the decline was so strong that the pair couldn’t even fall 30 points below the support of 1.2120, but then, likewise, it sharply went up to the intended resistance area. The entire second part of the week the pair spent trying to get over the newly formed resistance of 1.2165, and eventually it ended the week at the level of 1.2185; USD/JPY. As a reminder, experts' opinions split almost equally in this case: just under half of them voted for the pair's rise, just over the half - for its fall. And here, as with GBP/USD, the graphical analysis proved to be right, it pointed to predominance of bullish sentiment and the pair's rise. But as for the ultimate target of the upswing, the forecast differed from reality. The graphical analysis on H4 predicted that the pair would go up to the resistance of 103.70-103.90, and the one on D1 - up to 106.40. In reality, the pair reached the level somewhere in between the specified highs – at the level of 104.65.The end of the week coincided with the high of October 6 - 104.155; The medium-term forecast for USD/CHF starts panning out slowly but steadily. The strength of bulls starts outweighing, and thus, the pair is getting closer and closer to the intended target - 1.0100. Last week it could consolidate above the level of 0.9800, but the resistance of 0.9900 appeared to be an insurmountable barrier on its way, and the pair failed to rise above the level of 0.9910. Forecast for the Upcoming Week. Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested : it's clear after a deep decline of EUR/USD, all 100% of indicators on H4 and D1 point to the south. As for the analysts, only half of them agree to this opinion. They indicate the support of 1.0900 as the short-term target. The alternative viewpoint provides for return of the pair to the level of 1.1100, the next resistance will be at the level of 1.1200. As for the readings of the graphical analysis on H4, according to it, the pair should first decline to the level of 1.0940, and then transit to the sideways movement within the range of 1.0940-1.1000. In a longer term the number of supporters of fall increases, and now more than 60% of experts reckon that the pair will go down to the lows of February-March- 1.0800-1.0825; GBP/USD. Here, about 70% of analysts, backed by the graphical analysis on H4 and only 5% of indicators, reckon that in the near future the pair will not fall below the level of 1.2100 and it will move in a sideways channel of 1.2100-1.2330, and then, maybe it will return to the level of 1.3000. The graphical analysis on D1 strongly disagrees with this scenario, according to its readings the pair can fall below the area of 1.1850. With this, we should take into consideration the fact that for a long time formation of a given trend will depend not so much on the readings of Great Britain as on announcements of politicians on terms and conditions of United Kingdom exit from the EU; USD/JPY. For a third week in a row the opinions of experts in respect of the future of this pair split almost equally: one half, backed by the graphical analysis on H4, predicts the upswing of the pair to the high of 105.00, the second half votes for its decline to the level of 102.80 and further down- to the area of 102.00. The graphical analysis on D1 also votes for fall and transition to the sideways trend within 102.80-104.30; as for the forecast for USD/CHF, around 60% of analysts and the graphical analysis on H4 believe that the bulls' strength have weakened and the pair is in for a temporary rebound to the benchmark area of 0.9700-0.9800. The remaining 40% of experts reckon that the ascending trend hasn't ended yet, and the pair will be able to go further 50 points- up to the high of 0.9950. The medium-term target remains the same- 1.0100, though the number of supporters of such a scenario decreased from 80% to 65% as compared to the last week. Roman Butko, NordFX Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

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Forex Forecast EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 10 – 14 October 2016 First, a review of last week’s forecast: as a reminder, predicting the future of EUR/USD most experts pointed to the south. NFP print (US Non-Farm Payrolls) was expected to increase from 151К to 170К–176К. On the back of this forecast during the whole second half of the week the bears had been steadily pushing the pair down, to the support of 1.1120, specified by the experts. However, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the USA threw a curve: first, it adjusted its data for August - 151К instead of 167К, and then it announced that the print for September made 156К. Eventually, instead of expected rise we saw a drop, and ultimately EUR/USD pair returned to the last months’ pivot point – to the level of 1.1200, very quickly; last week we predicted decline of GBP/USD pair to the level of 1.2850, or even a greater decline to the low of July 06 to the level of 1.2795. But no one expected the thing happened on Friday – during Asian session trading the British currency plunged to the low seen in March 1985. Having started with the level of 1.2615, in just 3(!) minutes it fell down to 1.1840 at average. (It stopped declining at the level of 1.1940 with one brokers, and at the level of 1.1490, i.e. 450 points lower – with the others). As of this writing the analysts failed to achieve a consensus in respect of the reasons of such a collapse. For example, Bloomberg provided as many as six versions, and The Wall Street Journal reduced them to two versions, indicatingrobo traders and the president of France, François Hollande, who stated that Great Britain would be seriously affected by Brexit, as the main “suspects”. Afterwards the pound broke through the technical levels of support, which sharply increased currency sell-off by robo traders. The result of what mess these soulless computer programs can cause is, as they say, obvious. However, later with the assistance of people the pound went up again, but it was not easy to regain the losses of almost 1000 points quickly, and GBP/USD wrapped up the week at the level of 1.2430; as for USD/JPY, here the graphical analysis on D1 gave the most accurate forecast. As a reminder, it expressly indicated predominance of bullish sentiment and rise of the pair to the level of 104.00. That exactly what happened – gradually moving up, on Thursday the pair reached the high of 104.15, following which the bears regained 125 points and the pair froze at the support area of 102.90; USD/CHF. As expected, the pair continued consolidating at the area of 0.9700–0.9800. Supporting bullish sentiment, last Friday it tried to break through the main resistance of 0.9810, however soon it returned to the area, predetermined by the experts, and came into a weekend at the level of 0.9775. Forecast for the Upcoming Week. Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested : as EUR/USD is keeping within the medium-term pivot area – the level of 1.1200, the indicators on both H4 and D1 have taken a neutral stance. As for the analysts, 90% of them expect the pair to fall to the support of 1.1100, and then down to the area of 1.1000. The main resistance will be at the level of 1.1280. With this, we should keep in mind that the Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting (Wednesday, October 12), the outcome of the EU Extraordinary Economic Summit (Thursday, October 13), as well as data on US economy and speech of the Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen, on Friday, October 14, can influence formation of a short-term trend; GBP/USD. It is clear that after last Friday events the experts only lift their hands in dismay. In such situation the readings of the graphical analysis are of interest, the one on D1 predicts returning of the pair first to the resistance of 1.2700, and then even higher – up to the area of 1.2850. The thing happened to USD/CHF after January 2015 crisis also votes in favor of this forecast fairness. As a reminder, that time the market had quickly overcome panic sentiment, and just in two months the pair had regained almost all losses. The graphical analysis on H4 provides an alternative version for GBP/USD. According to its readings the pair can continue its downtrend, which had started on September 06. In this case it will decline to the support of 1.2340, and then down to the level of 1.2120; USD/JPY. Here just like last week the opinions of the experts split almost equally: just under half of them vote for the pair’s rise, just over half – for its fall. As for the graphical analysis on H4, it predicts that early week the pair will go up to the resistance of 103.70–103.90, and then decline – first to the level of 102.70, and then – to 101.75. The bottom will be at the level of 100.75. As for the graphical analysis on D1, according to it, this week the pair can get to the high of 106.40, and only then reverse to the south and look for the support of 101.75; the forecast for USD/CHF can be made using copy paste for weeks. As before, drawing a triangular pennant, the pair continues gradual consolidation at the area of 0.9640–0.9660. With this, almost 80% of experts are sure that in the longer term the bulls will win the victory and the pair will breakout upwards, reaching the high of 1.0100. Roman Butko, NordFX Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. 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