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Forex Forecast EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 07 - 11 November 2016 First, a review of last week’s forecast: Giving our forecast for EUR/USD, we warned that it will be thepolitical ratherthan economic situationthat would determine all dollar pair trends inthe run up to thepresidential elections in the United States. That iswhat has been happening. Any shift of the American electorate in favour of Donald Trump played against the dollar. As a result, surprisingly, the most accurate forecast was given not by experts, but... by graphical analysis, which predicted the growth of the pair to the resistance level of 1.1100, which was reached on Wednesday, November 2. Then, turning this resistance into a Pivot level, the pair moved to a sideways trend and finished the week at 1.1140; GBP/USD. The situation with this pair proved to be similar to what happened to EUR/USD. In this case an additional bullish hand was played by the UK High Court ruling, whichsaid that Prime Minister Theresa May cannot start the process of the UK leaving the EU without a vote in Parliament. As a result, the pair broke all expected resistance levelsand rose to the level of 1.2517; With regard to the forecast for USD/JPY, technical analysis also proved to be as accurate ascan realistically be expected. As a reminder, indicatorand graphical analysis suggested that the pair would again try to move closer to the resistance level of 105.50,after which it wouldliterally collapse- first to the support level of 104.00 and then even lower - to the102.40-102.80 zone. If we look at the chart, we see that this prediction came true by almost 100% - the pair started Monday by moving northwards, but after reaching 105.22 it turned around. On Tuesday it flew down, slowed down for a few hours in the104.00 areaandreached itslow point at the level of 102.54 on Thursday. Then, after a small correction, the pair settled down and moved to a sideways trend, moving in the 102.82-103.35 channel; Graphical analysis turned out to be 100% correctin itsforecast for USD/CHF as well. It clearly pointed out that the pair would reach the bottom at the level of 0.9680: at the end of the week-long session it obediently stopped with thisprecise value being displayed on the monitor. Forecast for the Upcoming Week. Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested : In anticipation of the upcoming Presidential election in the United States on Tuesday November 8, it is a fruitless task to make any forecasts on dollar pairs. That is why more than 60% of the experts just shrug when speaking about the near future of EUR/USD. As for the indicators, they almost unanimously insist on the growth of the pair in agreement with those analysts who predict a fall of the dollar by more than 1000 points in theevent Donald Trump wins the election. But, judging by the fact that 85% of experts suggest growth of the dollar in the medium-term, they are inclined to believe that Hillary Clinton will be elected new US President. In this case, according to them, the pair can go down about 500 points and reach the mark of 1.0600; The opinion of analysts on the future of GBP/USD is also quite vague. About 50% of them, together with indicators, look to the north, 35% lookto the south andthe remaining 15%, supported by graphical analysis on D1, lookto the east. It is worth mentioning that there is no consensus in the medium term either – a certain clarity will only emergefollowing the results of the American election. However, there may be serious corrections of trends depending on the situation with the UK exit from the European Union; USD/JPY. The experts are split in their forecast exactly halfway, with one half of them expectinggrowthand the othera fall.The reasons for this are clear and have been described above. As for a longer term forecast, almost 70% of analysts believe the dollar will strengthen and the pair will grow at least to the 106.00-107.00 zone; And finally the last pair of our review - USD/CHF. Here the opinion of the experts is almost unanimous: more than 90% of them believe that the pair willcertainlygo back to 1.0000-1.0100 marks. Graphical analysis agrees with this opinion as well, naming 0.9820 as the first target. In conclusion, let me mention the opinion of NordFX senior analyst John Gordon. "Analysis ofprevious presidential elections in the United States shows,” stresses the NordFX expert, “that a bounce always takes place, regardless of who wins,be it the Republicans or the Democrats. Most likely, the post-election trend, as before, will last for 2-3 months, ie for as long as investorstake to figure out which out which of their electoral promisesthe new President will fulfil and which will merely remain words on paper. This is a very good period for traders, giving one the opportunity to earn good money.In this situation, traders should manage their financial assets very wisely and should remainalert, so as not to miss the chance to utilise 100% of these new trade opportunities." Roman Butko, NordFX Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

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X DAY - Tuesday, November 8, 2016 JP Morgan analysts believe that the dollar will weaken regardless of the US electoral outcome. In the event of Trump's victory, NordFX analysts forecast that its fall may reach 10-15%. If, on the other hand, Hillary Clinton wins, the fluctuation of all indicators may reach ± 5%. The upcoming presidential election on November 8 could significantly change the situation in the US economy and consequently lead to major fluctuations of the dollar against other world currencies. The electoral platforms of the two major candidates for the US presidency, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, promise major changes in trade policies, according to Bloomberg. To add to this, according to analysts from JP Morgan Chase (one of the largest brokers) a victory of any of these candidates may result at the very least in increased tension between Washington and its partners, if not in outright trade wars. This carries the risk of a reorientation of investors from the dollar to other currencies. A similar view is shared by Deutsche Bank, as well as HSBC and Credit Suisse. According to one of the leading strategists of the Credit Suisse New York branch, S. Jalinoos, the dollar should start cheapening right after the election. A statement on USDJPY has been made by Bank of America Merrill Lynch experts as well, who expect that the election of Donald Trump will cause the dollar to fall in price relative to the appreciation of the Japanese currency. The situation for GBPUSD is more complicated: on the one hand, there are disturbances associated with the UK exit from the EU, and on the other there is an equally large dose of uncertainty associated with the presidential election in the United States. Morgan Stanley Research believe that the dollar may well give way to the pound and that the pair will go up. "We are certain to have trade conflicts under the next president,” says John Normand of JP Morgan. “These will be major in the case of Trump's victory and moderate in the case of Clinton’s." The same opinion is shared by analysts of the international brokerage company NordFX. In their view, if Donald Trump becomes US president the dollar could fall against the euro by an excess of 1000 points. "If Hillary Clinton wins,” says NordFX chief analyst John Gordon, “volatility is likely to be smaller and will not exceed ± 5%. But these five percent for the EURUSD will make about 500 points.” “Let's take a look at what usually happens after elections,” continues John Gordon. “In 2000, the Republican George W. Bush won, resulting in the dollar going into a sharp nosedive and losing about 5,300 points against the euro over the course of the year. The next election took place in 2004, and Bush won again. It would seem that nothing should have changed but, on the contrary, the pair made a U-turn inspired by his new electoral campaign promises, and it only took two months for the US currency to rise by 2000 points. In the 2008 election, Democrat Barack Obama became President, which resulted in the trend changing again: the dollar dropped more than 2350 points in six weeks. The Obama re-election in 2012 brought one more turn and a bounce upwards of 1050 points in less than three months.” “And note,” stresses the NordFX expert, “a bounce always takes place, regardless of who wins - the Republicans or the Democrats. I am confident that this election will not be an exception. Most likely, the post-election trend, as before, will last for 2-3 months - as long as investors do not completely figure out which of the electoral promises of the new President will be met, and which will merely remain words on paper. This is a very good period for traders, allowing one to earn good money. At this moment, we can expect a powerful movement of not only currencies rates, but also of stock market indices and of US company shares, and these movements will begin almost immediately as soon as the first preliminary results of the vote count are made public. In this situation, traders should allocate their financial assets very wisely and should be alert, so as not to miss the utilise 100% of these new trade opportunities." Trading withNordFX Refer a Friend and Get the Bonus!

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Forex Forecast EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for October 31 – November 4, 2016 First, a review of last week’s forecast: giving forecast for EUR/USD, those 30% of experts, having suggested a possible rise of the pair, turned out to be right. As a reminder, such scenario was also backed by the graphical analysis, according to it a sideways movement of the pair within 1.0855–1.0915 should change to the upswing to the level of 1.0960. The level of 1.1100 was indicated as the next resistance level. Practically, that was exactly what happened: early in the week the pair was moving eastwards within the predetermined range, and then it went up, and toward the very end of the week it surged upward striving to reach the high of 1.1000. However, it failed to reach it, and it wrapped up the week 25 points above the first resistance level – at the level of 0.0985; GBP/USD. Here 80% of analysts reckoned that in the near future the pair would start declining first to the level of 1.2100, and then – to 1.2000. This happened on Tuesday, October 25, ahead of the speeches of the governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, and the president of the ECB, Mario Draghi. Just within 3 hours the pair lost almost 160 points and reached the bottom at the level of 1.2082, and then – in a similar rapid manner – it regained almost all losses, wrapping up the week around the one of the strongest October levels of support/resistance – at 1.2185; the forecast for USD/JPY could be reduced to two trends – first the pair’s rise to the level of 105.00, and then its declining to the support in the area of 103.20. Indeed, starting from Monday the pair went up and as early as Thursday it reached that high. On Friday it went up further 50 points, following which the bulls took well-deserved rest, and the bears, meeting almost no resistance, immediately pushed the pair 100 points down; as for the forecast for USD/CHF, the majority of analysts, indicators and the graphical analysis by common consent voted for another breakthrough of the pair to the north – up to the high of 1.0000, and then – rebound to the area of 0.9700-0.9800. The level of 0.9855 was indicated as the next support level. The forecast was if not 100%, then at least 99.98% accurately fulfilled, because the pair reached that very high of 0.9998 on Tuesday, October 25. The promised rebound also occurred – and exactly to the specified support as well. The pair ended the week at the level of 0.9875. Forecast for the Upcoming Week. Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested : notwithstanding last week’s rise of the pair, 70% of experts continue to insist that the pair should anyway go down at least to the level of 1.0800. As for the indicators on H4 and D1, they have taken a neutral stance. However, the graphical analysis on H4 reckons that the pair, having moved down to the level of 1.0900, will reverse again to the north and will move towards the resistance of 1.1100. Around 30% of analysts agree to this scenario. At the same time, we should keep in mind that the upcoming week is busy in terms of significant economic events, including release of the United States Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision on Wednesday, November 2, and release of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday, November 4. The upcoming USA presidential elections, scheduled for November 8, should also be taken into account. All these events can lead to great exchange rate fluctuations, which is fraught with not only large profit but also huge risks for traders; next week not only the US Fed, but also the Bank of England will announce its Interest Rate Decision (Thursday, November 3), however, the analysts don’t expect any surprises from it. As for their opinion on GBP/USD, around 70% of them point to the south, predicting the fall of the pair to the level of 1.2000, and maybe even 100 points lower. The indicators and the graphical analysis on D1 fully concur with this opinion. However, the latter deems it possible that before going down the pair can rise to the resistance of 1.2250. The next resistance will be at 1.2330. USD/JPY. For a fifth week in a row the experts have no consensus on the future of this pair: 45% vote for the pair’s rise to the area of 105.50–106.00, 25% - for its fall to the support of 102.80 and 30% - for a sideways trend. As for the indicators and the graphical analysis, they reckon that the pair will try to re-approach the resistance of 105.50, and then will literally nosedive – first to the support of 104.00, and then even lower – to the area of 102.40–102.80. But, as with both foregoing cases, here you should keep in mind the significant news from the USA, and also release of the Interest Rate Decisions of the Bank of Japan on Tuesday, November 1; as for the forecast for USD/CHF, around 70% of analysts believe that the pair should definitely return to the level of 1. 0000.The remaining 30% reckon that it hasn’t finished its temporary decline to the area of 0.9700–0.9800. The graphical analysis on H4, which believes that the decline can be even greater, also agrees with this scenario, and the pair will reach the bottom at the level of 0.9680. There is also a third opinion, according to which, due to the events mentioned above, in the near future the pair will just mirror EUR/USD acting, a negative correlation with which is most noticeable during the periods of heightened volatility. Roman Butko, NordFX Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

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