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Generalized Forex Forecast for 18-22 May 2015 Let us start with a few words about the forecast for last week, which turned out to be quite accurate overall: the prediction for EUR/USD was that most probably the pair would stay in a sideways trend with fluctuations around the line of 1.1230, which did happen in fact. At first, EUR/USD went downwards, then returned to its Pivot Point, after which the bulls gained strength and began to persistently push the pair towards the upper boundary of the corridor. The level of 1.1440 was set as the final bastion of resistance, and the pair tried to break through it all Friday long. However, it failed and finished the five days in this very zone; one of the possibilities for GBP/USD was breaking through the resistance level of 1.5600, which was also supported by 87% of the indicators. The breakthrough happened already on Tuesday, and then the pair tried several times to rise above the upper boundary of the corridor – 1.5785. It didn’t succeed, though, and so settled down finishing at 1.5727; the Pivot Point for USD/JPY was set at 119.70, which was confirmed – the pair crossed it twice during the week, having stayed exactly in the average values of the specified corridor 118.75-120.30; USD/CHF turned out to be the only pair regarding which both analysts and indicators were only partly right. At first, everything seemed to go as planned – the pair began to grow and tried to consolidate above 0.9300. However, on Tuesday, in a powerful spurt, the pair broke through the support line and went down sharply to the low of a week ago. Now regarding the forecast for the coming week. Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can note the surprising unanimity of the analysts who predict growth for all four pairs. Such forecasts always raise strong suspicions because some of the pairs are generally characterized by multi-directional rather than direct correlation: for EUR/USD the opinions of the experts are as follows: ↑ – 40%, → – 3%, ↓ – 6%, ↔ (at a loss) – 51%. The indicators provide similar readings: ↑ – 83%, → – 17%, ↓ – 0%. However, graphical analysis shows that the pair has almost completed the Inverted Hat pattern and has to form just the second brim of the hat. Thus, it can be assumed that this week EUR/USD will hold in a sideways corridor of 1.1070-1.1530, and, after a small rise, the pair is expected to have a relatively strong rebound downwards; the D1 chart clearly shows that GBP/USD has reached the upper boundary of the corridor (1.5800) where it stayed for a month and a half at the end of last year. The pair is very likely to linger in the range of 1.5500-1.5815 for some time again. Therefore, despite the vast majority of the analysts and 91% of the indicators pointing to growth, one can expect prevailing bearish tendencies and the pair’s rebound downwards; the opinions of the experts and the readings of the indicators for USD/JPY diverge (the experts: ↑ – 42%, → – 3%, ↓ – 3%, ↔ – 52%; the indicators: ↑ – 26%, → – 4%, ↓ – 70%). Hence, the level of 119.40, at which the pair finished the previous five days, can be considered as a Pivot Point, and the readings of the indicators on the H1 timeframe and smaller can give further guidance. Support will at 119.20, 118.90, 118.75 and 118.50; resistance – 119.60, 119.90, 120.00 and 120.30; as for the near future of USD/CHF, the data for both analysts and indicators are similar to USD/JPY (the experts: ↑ – 40%, → – 6%, ↓ – 4%, ↔ – 50%; the indicators: ↑ – 17%, → – 9%, ↓ – 74%). At the same time, as USD/CHF is in an inverse correlation with EUR/USD, it may go up at least to around 0.9290-0.9380. In the case this forecast is not fulfilled, the support levels will be 0.9110, 0.9075 and 0.8980, resistance – 0.9500. Roman Butko, NordFX

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Generalized Forex Forecast for 11-15 May 2015 First, let’s review last week’s forecast: the forecast EUR/USD was fulfilled 100%. The pair was predicted to stay in a sideways trend, with a possible descent to 1.0800. As it happened, on Tuesday the pair fell to around 1.0700-1.0850, remained there for about an hour and then went up in order to finish the week at the point it had started from; the GBP/USD pair was sticking to the predictions about a sideways trend all the way till Thursday evening, maintaining an even narrower range than was expected initially. However, this was followed by the announcement of the UK election results, which surprised both politicians and financiers. As a consequence, the pair soared up by over 200 points; most analysts and indicators asserted that the USD/JPY pair would try to consolidate in the area above 120.00. On the other hand, a rather small group foretold a rapid downwards rebound. In fact, both groups proved to be right. At the start of the week, the bulls were propping the pair up, not letting it fall below 120.00. However, they then weakened, and the bears took over. Nonetheless, by the end of the week, the pair once again climbed upwards, back to 119.70, which it has been fluctuating around since the end of March; the forecast for USD/CHF was that the pair would continue to mirror EUR/USD. Judging by last week’s chart, the forecast proved to be 100% accurate. Now on to the forecast for the upcoming week. Summarizing the opinions of 35 analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on diverse technical and graphical methods of analysis, the following can be suggested: EUR/USD is likely to remain in its sideways trend, fluctuating along 1.1230. At the very least, the can be concluded as you look at the neat split among the experts’ opinions: ↑ - 22%, → - 3%, ↓- 19%, ↔ (at a loss) - 56%. The indicator readings are not much different: ↑ - 35%, → - 17%, ↓- 48%. The main support levels are 1.1060, 1.0850 and 1.0650, and the main resistance levels are 1.1290 and 1.1440; the vast majority of the indicators (87%) on H4 and D1 foretell growth for GBP/USD. The analysts differ: ↑ - 25%, → - 9%, ↓- 22%, ↔ - 44%. As the pair has almost reached a high level of 1.5600, it’s quite likely to try and break through the resistance and settle in the range of 1.5475-1.5785. At the same time, there’re good chances that the pair will fail to do so and will actually start moving down to the 1.5000 support level; the forecasts of the analysts and the indicators regarding USD/JPY also differ (experts: ↑ - 7%, → - 22%, ↓- 26%, ↔ - 45%; indicators: ↑ - 60%, → - 17%, ↓- 23% ). However, both groups agree on the Pivot Point being at 119.70. Support will be at 119.20, 188.75 and 119.20, with resistance at 120.05, 120.30 and 120.85; there’s concord among the analysts and indicators about USD/CHF – over 75% and 56% respectively suggest that the pair should rise and consolidate in the range of 0.9300-0.9400. The next support level is 0.9190, and the next resistance level is 0.9500. Roman Butko, NordFX

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Generalized Forex Forecast for 4-8 May 2015 First, a few words regarding last week痴 forecast: the forecast for EUR/USD was fulfilled by exactly 50%. As promised, at the start of the week the pair strived to the top boundary of the corridor, which was defined by the highs of March and April. However, after that, instead of rebounding and going downwards, the pair rushed further upwards and reached the level of February; GBP/USD was much more docile ・it was rising for the first few days of the week but towards the end, as predicted, it rapidly rolled downwards and finished the five days where it had taken off; USD/JPY was predicted to continue its sideways trend and rise to around 120.80-122.00, which happened with 100% accuracy. The pair痴 sideways movement with a 120.28 high is clearly seen on the H4 and D1 charts; on the contrary, the analysts・forecast for USD/CHF turned out to be 100% inaccurate. The pair was expected to mirror the movements of EUR/USD and it did. Precisely due to this, USD/CHF went downwards, reaching the level of February just like EUR/USD. Now about the forecast for the coming week. Generalizing in a table the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, it can be suggested that: the EUR/USD pair will be in a sideways trend with fluctuations in the range of 1.1100-1.1430, although the pair may fall to 1.0800, returning to the low of last week; the majority of the analysts think that GBP/USD will also be in a sideways trend in the boundaries from 1.5000 to 1.5300. This forecast is supported by the discordance in the indicator readings; like last week, most of the analysts and 82% of the indicators presume that USD/JPY will try to consolidate in the range of 120.00-122.00, the high for the coming five days being at 121.50. On the other hand, 8% of the analysts predict a sharp rebound downwards and a fall to the level of 117.00; finally, USD/CHF is most likely to take after EUR/USD, same as last week. If the latter moves downwards, USD/CHF, mirroring EUR/USD, will go upwards to 0.9500. With this, if you calculate the mean maximum and minimum based on all the forecasts, the pair should finish the next week exactly at the same level it had started, i.e. at 0.9335. Roman Butko, NordFX

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