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Generalized Forex Forecast for 3-7 August 2015 First, a review of the past week : the forecast for EUR/USD based on graphical analysis turned out to be nearly perfect – a sideways trend in the range of 1.0900-1.1015 and a rise to 1.1115 if the pair broke through resistance. Last week’s chart displays all of that – the sideways trend, the break through resistance and the pair’s rise to 1.1115, with a support level of 1.0900; graphical analysis was also correct in regards to GBP/USD. It indicated that the pair would move in an ascending corridor visible on D1. This is precisely what happened – all week long the pair climbed up slowly, sticking to the bottom boundary of the corridor; the analysts and technical analysis were unanimous about USD/JPY – the pair was supposed to continue its effort to reach 125.00. It did try but failed to get over strong resistance at 124.50 once again; graphical analysis was close to perfection in its predictions for USD/CHF as well. The D1 scenario included a fall to support at 0.9520, followed by a rise to the target level of 0.9700 and a further crash to support at 0.9325. It all happened, though the crash was less dramatic – to 0.9550. Forecast for the coming week. Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from the world leading banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be put forward : it’s rather difficult to sum up the analysts’ views on EUR/USD but giving it a shot, it can be said that the pair’s Pivot Point will be at 1.0970. The pair will be oscillating around this line in a 1.0820-1.1115 range. The indicators also show neutral behavior for the pair while there’s no clarity with graphical analysis. Hopefully, the start of the week will shed more light on this; all of the analysts predict that GBP/USD will be in a sideways trend with prevailing bullish tendencies and support at 1.5520. A rise is foretold by 74% of the indicators, which is confirmed by graphical analysis. According to it, there may be a slight fall initially, after which the pair will be pushing off support at 1.5510, go up to 1.5830 and return to the support level. However, the return may happen 10-14 August instead of this week; as for USD/JPY, only 11% of the experts believe that the pair will finally reach 125.00, with the rest talking about a drop to around 123.00. Graphical analysis proposes the following scenario: first down to 123.40, then a rise to at least 124.40, followed by a sharp fall to a 122.00 support level. Only the technical indicators on H4 and D1 show that the pair will start moving upwards right away on Monday; the analysts are quite vague about USD/CHF, unlike the indicators that give a clear and almost unanimous (78%) forecast of a rise to a 0.9730-0.9750 range. Support will be at 0.9510. Roman Butko, NordFX

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Generalized Forex Forecast for 27-31 July 2015 First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week : the EUR/USD pair was predicted to be in a sideways trend with bulls prevailing and to move from support at 1.0750-1.0800 to resistance at 1.1110, which actually happened. Despite the pair being just short of the top boundary of the designated corridor, the forecast stood overall; the GBP/USD pair somewhat disappointed the analysts. The forecast was a sideways trend with support at 1.5555, which the pair tried to break during the first half of the week. On Thursday, it finally managed to do that and, as a result, fell to its 2-weeks old support around 1.5470; as predicted, USD/JPY tried to continue its rise at the beginning of the week but, with the bullish influence weakened, the pair entered a sideways trend, moving in a very narrow corridor and relying on support at 123.75; the lack of news last week affected the USD/CHF pair – it was unable to reach the desired height of 0.9700 and on Thursday fell to the expected level of support around of 0.9520, rebounded off it and returned to the rates of the start of the week. Forecast for the coming week. Summing up the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said : a look at the H4 chart for EUR/USD would make it clear that the technical indicators will vote for the pair’s further rise. However, on D1 the picture is different – only 52% of the indicators echo this, while 48% hold the opposite view. Furthermore, 85% of the experts also vote for the pair’s fall, with the target as a drop to at least of 1.0850 or even further to 1.0800. Graphical analysis predicts a sideways trend in the range of 1.0900-1.1015 in the first half of the week and a rise to 1.1115 in case the resistance level gets broken through; according to 80% of the analysts, GBP/USD is likely to fall further and transition to 1.5335-1.5450, with 75% of the indicators supporting human reasoning. However, graphical analysis shows that the pair will fall only to 1.5400, after which it will continue to move up in an ascending corridor visible on D1; the analysts believe that USD/JPY won’t abandon its attempts to go up to at least 125.00. Both technical and graphical analysis readings agree with this general trend. Support will be around 123.65, with the next level at 122.50; as for the USD/CHF pair, 65% of the analysts expect it to rise to 0.9700. The indicators also confirm that the pair will try to finish what it failed to do last week. Graphical analysis on D1 paints this picture – first, a fall to support at 0.9520, followed by a rise to the target height of 0.9700 and then… a crash to a 0.9325 support level. The H1 and H4 timeframes spell such a crash much sooner. Roman Butko, NordFX

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Generalized Forex Forecast for 13-17 July 2015 Let’s start with a review of last week’s forecast : regarding EUR/USD, 64% of the analysts expected the pair to fall by at least 100-200 points while 18% of the analysts claimed that the euro would rise to 1.1250. Following the news from Greece, both forecasts were fulfilled – the week started with a gap of 140 points, on Tuesday the drop made the mentioned 200 points, then the pair started to go up and reached 1.1215 by the end of the week; the predictions for GBP/USD were also correct. According to graphical analysis, the pair was supposed to go down to 1.5430-1.5500 mid-week and then return to the 1.5550-1.5616 marks. All of that happened indeed – GBP/USD descended to 1.5430 on Tuesday, reached its low of 1.5330 on Wednesday and then soared up to 1.5555; the experts, the technical indicators and the graphical analysis readings were only partly right about USD/JPY. Their forecast about the 122.00 support level held up for the first half of the week, after which the pair had a dive to 120.45. Then it made a U-turn, rushed upwards and ended up at the level of the beginning of the week, i.e. 122.75; the USD/CHF pair was expected to fall to 0.9330, and it did happen. After putting up resistance for a while, the pair crashed down at the end of the week. It was able to stay at the 0.9330 target just for one minute. Forecast for this week. Summing up the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested : just like last week, fluctuations on the currency market will largely depend on the events in Greece. At the same time, most experts (62%) and indicators (53%) predict that the EUR/USD pair will rise and move to around 1.1365. Graphical analysis, in turn, indicates a possible sideways trend with support at 1.1000 and resistance at 1.1215; as for GBP/USD, the opinions of the analysts (54% vs 46%) and indicator readings (H4 for a rise, D1 for a fall) diverge. Graphical analysis promises a repeat of last week’s scenario – the pair falling to around 1.5350 and then rising to resistance at 1.5555. In case of a breakthrough, the target will be 1.5930; the experts, the technical indicators and graphical analysis are unanimous about USD/JPY returning to around 123.50. However, at the start of the week, a short-term fall to the support level of 122.00 can’t be ruled out; the opinions about USD/CHF are split, though the majority of the analysts (64%) believe that last Friday’s finishing level of 0.9380 will become the main resistance, off which the pair will be bouncing down towards 0.9330 or even lower to 0.9250. Graphical analysis, however, puts forward an alternative scenario with 0.9380 as support. The start of week is likely to reveal which of the two scenarios will actually play out. Roman Butko, NordFX

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