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Forex Forecast for 7-11 September 2015 Let’s review last week’s predictions : the forecast for EUR/USD was fulfilled by at least 95%. As predicted, the pair spent the week revolving around the Pivot Point at 1.1200. In accordance with the indications of graphical analysis, the pair went up at the start of the week and then made a U-turn. However, the pair’s volatility was weaker than assumed; pursuant to the forecast, GBP/USD tested the minimum level around 1.5330-1.5350 several times at the beginning of the week. The testing was so successful that, after breaching support and defying the analysts’ expectations, the pair descended even more to the low of 1 June; in the forecasts about USD/JPY, 45% of the analysts and 71% of the indicators predicted the bulls to have the upper hand but that turned out to be incorrect. Already by 1 September, the pair reached the first support level, entered into a sideways trend and, having breached support at 119.50, continued downwards at the end of the week; as for USD/CHF, the indicators staunchly supporting the pair’s rise were right. So were 50% of the experts and graphical analysis on D1, although the pair’s growth wasn’t as rapid as the latter had predicted. Forecast for the coming week. Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on a large variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be proposed : most analysts’ expectation for EUR/USD is a sideways trend with the main support around 1.0925. At the same time, 18% of the experts say that this support may be broken through and the pair may fall to 1.0812. The indicators on H5 and D1 confirm the bears’ advantage while graphical analysis doesn’t rule out that the pair will be able to maintain its sideways trend with a 1.1140 Pivot Point for some time; the indicators on all main timeframes and graphical analysis on H1 and H4 show that GBP/USD will fall further to 1.5100. However, considering that the pair is currently at the bottom boundary of a descending corridor, there may be a rebound towards the corridor’s upper boundary of 1.5225-1.5255 first. If it’s broken, the pair could start moving upward and return to around 1.5325; it goes without saying that all the indicators foresee a continuing descent for USD/JPY. Graphical analysis, on the contrary, suggests that the pair has already reached a strong enough support level and a rebound to at least 119.80 (forecast on Н1) or even higher to 120.50 (forecast on Н4) could follow shortly. The opinions of 83% of the experts add that USD/JPY will be moving along the ascending corridor and rather quickly return to 123.00. The main support level will be around 118.40; as for USD/CHF, 74% of the indicators, 100% of the experts and graphical analysis insist on the pair’s rise in its efforts to achieve the 1.0000 landmark in the next few weeks. Such unanimity is definitely a cause for concern, especially taking into account what the pair has done for the past 14 days. The key support this week will be at 0.9680. If it’s broken, the bears will take over once again and the coveted peak will be out of reach for a while. Roman Butko, NordFX

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Forex Forecast for 31 August - 4 September 2015 The latest significant developments on global markets caused bursts of unexpectedly strong volatility. However, experience shows that everything falls back into place eventually, and forecasts, which initially seemed to be destined for the dustbin of history, actually end up being correct. Last week was just the case : almost all indicators predicted that EUR/USD would rise, and the experts forecast a 1.1460 peak. In reality, over the previous week, this peak changed hands between the bulls and the bears several times, thus alternately becoming resistance and support. Defying the analysts’ forecasts at the start of the week, the pair finished the week as they had predicted – around 1.1150, the bottom boundary of the weekly corridor; the prediction of GBP/USD’s continuing upward trend towards 1.5800 proved correct. Having tested this level on Monday and Tuesday, GBP/USD rebounded towards the bottom boundary of the said corridor and, after several attempts to break through it on Wednesday, plunged below the key support level. The pair spent just a few hours around 1.5550 and then reached this July’s low; the behavior of USD/JPY on Monday, 24 August, was reminiscent of a kamikaze pilot. As expected, the pair descended to 120.20 smoothly but then within just one hour (!) it dropped by almost 400 points, reaching January’s low. As the experts predicted, the fall was short-lived, and the pair regained 550 points upwards very soon; the USD/CHF pair once again demonstrated an inverse correlation with EUR/USD. As a result, USD/CHF was short of the predicted level of 0.9700 by a meager 30 points. Forecast for the upcoming week. Summarizing the opinions of 35 analysts from the world’s leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on technical and graphical analysis, the following can be put forward : most analysts and indicators agree that this week’s Pivot Point for EUR/USD will be at 1.1200. Meanwhile, graphical analysis on H4 suggests that the pair will rise to 1.2550 at the start of the week before falling to 1.1000. After that, its fluctuations should be confined to a 1.1000-1.1150 range. An alternative point of view, supported by graphical analysis on H1 and 25% of the experts, suggests that the initial rise will be much larger, perhaps even to 1.1480; at the start of the week, the GBP/USD pair may test the low within a 1.5330-1.5350 range a few times. After that, according to 65% of the experts and graphical analysis, the pair should rise and regain the bulk of its losses sustained last week. The resistance levels are 1.5550 and 1.5640; in their forecasts for USD/JPY, 45% of the analysts and 71% of the indicators suggest that the bulls will be very active and push the pair up to 123.30. As a result, the pair should reach at least 122.20-122.50 which will become the resistance level for an ensuing sideways trend. The main support will be at 119.50, with the next level at 118.00; all indicators on H1, H4 and D1 show a rise for USD/CHF. The forecasts of the experts and graphical analysis are split about 50/50. For instance, graphical analysis on Н4 suggests that the pair should fall to support around 0.9390 at the start of the week and only then rebound upwards to resistance at 0.9560. Analysis on D1, on the other hand, indicates that during the week, USD/CHF should rise steadily to 0.9900 and further to 1.0000 in September. Roman Butko, NordFX

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