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Forex Forecast for 19-23 October 2015 First, a review of the previous week: the forecast for EUR/USD can be considered as fulfilled by 99%. The predictions were as follows: the pair bounces off the upper boundary of the weekly ascending channel, goes to its bottom boundary and, bouncing back up, reaches September’s high. This actually happened, although the pair didn’t quite reach the very bottom of the channel and slightly overshot the high, so the forecast lost 1% of its accuracy; the GBP/USD pair was predicted to first hit the bottom around 1.5250 and then to spike up at least to resistance at 1.5450, which took place. Although in this case, some adjustments were made by inertia – in its fall, GBP/USD made it to 1.5200 but then quickly returned to the indicated support level of 1.5250. The maximum also turned out to be slightly higher at 1.5500 while 1.5450 became the point the pair returned to by the end of the week; last week, it seemed impossible to give any forecast regarding USD/JPY as 33% of the experts voted for a rise, 33% for a sideways trend and 33% for a downward movement. The latter proved correct, though the fall was short-term and soon the pair returned to the main support of the past two months; the bulls’ timid attempts to push USD/CHF upwards were unsuccessful, and on Thursday, the pair reached the low around 0.9500, as predicted by the experts, and stayed there until the end of the week. Forecast for the coming week. Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies and forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said : regarding EUR/USD, 73% of the analysts along with graphic analysis and indicators on H1 support a further drop – first, to support at 1.1300 and then further to support at 1.1120. The Pivot Point in this case will be at 1.1200. The remaining 27% of the analysts and 85% of the indicators on D1 think that the pair will fail to break through the 1.1300 support and will go up to last week’s high. This scenario is echoed by graphical analysis on H4; most experts, graphical analysis and indicators on H4 and D1 believe that GBP/USD will be moving in a 1.5420-1.5500 range for some time. Further forecasts diverge: 23% of the analysts, fully supported by the indicators, insist the pair will rise to around 1.5570-1.5600. Graphical analysis differs – the pair should go down to support at 1.5350; according to nearly all the tools of technical analysis and 64% of the experts, the breakthrough by USD/JPY of the bottom side of the symmetrical triangle, which the pair has been drawing since the end of August, was short-lived. They reckon that the previous course will resume – USD/JPY will reach 120.80 at least, and the Pivot Point will be at 120.00 as before. However, there is an opposing view – 36% of the analysts and 76% of the indicators on D1 are confident that from now on, 119.50 will become a powerful resistance level, bouncing off which the pair will move down to support at 118.00; there are two possible scenarios for USD/CHF as well. First – the pair will bounce off the upper boundary of the two-week descending channel, reach its bottom boundary 0.9400-0.9420 and rise sharply, breaking through the channel and reaching resistance at 0.9580-0.9600. The indicators, graphical analysis on H4 and D1 and 45% of the experts support this forecast. According to the second scenario, the pair will go upwards as of Monday, breaking through the upper boundary of the channel. This is voted for by 55% of the analysts along with the indicators and graphical analysis on H1. At the same time, one third of the experts believe that the pair will not stop at 0.9600 but will go 100 points higher. Roman Butko, NordFX

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Forex Forecast for 12-16 October 2015 First, a review of last week’s predictions : as expected, EUR/USD spent the week within the indicated boundaries. The bulls had a distinct advantage and, after two failed attempts on Thursday, they managed to break through the first resistance level of 1.1300 on Friday, repeating the scenario of the first ten days of September; the forecast for GBP/USD was fulfilled 100%. As predicted, bouncing off support around 1.5100, the pair went up, broke through the main resistance of 1.5300, spent some time around 1.5360 and Friday evening returned to 1.5300; the indicators insisted USD/JPY should continue its sideways trend, which happened. Apparently, the bulls and the bears got so weary of fighting that were able only to continue to draw the symmetrical triangle, which they’ve been busy with for the past 7 weeks; the USD/CHF pair was quite unpredictable. First, as suggested, it moved up, then turned the 0.9740 Pivot Point into resistance and entered a sideways trend, finishing the week by falling to support around 0.9590. Forecast for the coming week. Summing up the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and broker companies and forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be put forward : regarding EUR/USD, 67% of the analysts agree with the indicators that the pair will reach September’s high of 1.1460. Now the pair is at the upper boundary of the weekly ascending channel, and there are two possible scenarios – either the given boundary line becomes support and the pair immediately goes up, or the scenario of the first half of September is repeated and the pair rebounds to the lower boundary of the corridor (1.1300-1.1315) before continuing its upward movement. This turn of events is strongly supported by graphical analysis on H1; a similar pattern is expected for the GBP/USD pair. About 70% of the analysts and indicators on H4 and D1 insist the pair will rise at least to 1.5450 resistance. At the same time, graphical analysis on H1 and H4 specifies that at first, the pair may fall to support at 1.5300 (H1) and may even reach the bottom around 1.5250 at the second attempt; the seven-week pennant on the USD/JPY chart leaves both analysts and all the tools of technical analysis puzzled. Nonetheless, 33% of the analysts as well as indicators on H4 still have a faint hope that USD/JPY will rise to 121.20 at least. Alternatively, 33% of the analysts expect the pair to fall to around 1.1850, and the remaining third just shrug their shoulders, which doesn’t qualify as a forecast in any way; as for USD/CHF, 90% of the analysts believe that the pair will hold in a 0.9540-0.9750 sideways corridor. This forecast is elaborated by graphical analysis on D1 – USD/CHF should first go up to the upper boundary of the corridor, then rebound and drop to 0.9500-0.9570 for 2-3 days before abruptly rising to 0.9900. However, the latter may take place only end of October – early November. Roman Butko, NordFX

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Forex Forecast for 5-9 October 2015 First, a review of the previous week : this time round, the forecast for EUR/USD given by graphical analysis panned out – first, the pair was to go down to 1.1120 and then return to resistance at 1.1210, which happened. After that, the pair moved sideways, turning 1.1210 into a Pivot Point where it finished the week; those 80% of the analysts who said that GBP/USD had already reached its low were right. Despite all the efforts by the bulls, a rebound didn’t occur. Instead, the pair followed the predictions of graphical analysis and stayed in a sideways trend all of the last week; in line with the forecast of the 12% of the analysts and the indicators on D1, USD/JPY continued its sideways trend. Besides, the D1 chart clearly shows that, after descending from a double top to last spring’s levels and reducing its volatility, USD/JPY formed an almost perfect pennant (or a symmetrical triangle) over the last 6 weeks; one of the forecasts for USD/CHF claimed that the pair would continue its sideways movement, which did happen. At the same time, as predicted, support was at 0.9670 (the pair’s main support level for the past 4 weeks). The other mentioned level 0.9740 served as a Pivot Point. Forecast for the coming week. Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be proposed : both analysts and indicators predict that EUR/USD will stay in its sideways trend. The bottom boundaries are set at 1.1100 and 1.1000. Resistance is likely to be at 1.1300 and 1.4600; most experts believe that GBP/USD will also be moving horizontally. The main support level will be at 1.5100, with the main resistance around 1.5300. Graphical analysis on H4, in turn, shows that the pair may bounce higher to around 1.5360, as it happened 8 and 9 September. Alternatively, 17% of the analysts don’t rule out that 1.5100 is still not the bottom and the pair may drop even lower to 1.1470; considering that USD/JPY has formed an absolutely symmetrical triangle on D1, the indicators continue to point to a sideways trend. However, the W1 timeframe shows that the triangle isn’t that symmetrical but rather ascending. This pattern is usually indicative of an upward breakout, and 70% of the experts agree with it, believing that the pair should reach at least 122.00 in the long run. The main support remains at 118.50; regarding USD/CHF, the lows of 24 August, 18 September and 2 October allow drawing a bullish support line. This is corroborated by 67% of the analysts and indicators on W1 – in the medium term, the bulls will maintain advantage and the pair will be moving up to 0.9900. At the same time, indicators on D1 suggest that the pair will stay in a horizontal trend with a 0.9740 Pivot Point for another week. Roman Butko, NordFX

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