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Forex Forecast for 14-18 March 2016 First, about last week’s forecast: the forecast for EUR/USD was unfolding more or less according to plan till the middle of Thursday – the pair first went down, then rebounded, set two boundaries of the corridor and entered a sideways trend. Specifically on 10 March, following the announcement about the ECB’s decision on interest rates, the pair fell to 1.0821 but then ECB Head Mario Draghi turned the market opinion about and the pair soared by 500 points to 1.1217. Nonetheless, EUR/USD still stayed within the 1.0710-1.1340 channel set by the indicators and graphical analysis on D1; the forecast for GBP/USD provided by graphical analysis was the most precise – at the beginning of the week, the pair was supposed to be oscillating in the range from 1.4150 to 1.4250, then rise and reach 1.4375. All this happened for the most part – until Thursday, the pair moved in a 1.4132-1.4275 channel, then went up and finished the week around 1.4380; for USD/JPY, graphical analysis on H4 and the indicators on all timeframes pointed to a further sideways trend within a 113.00-114.50 range. In reality, the pair did continue to move in the horizontal channel, virtually repeating the scenario of the previous week. As a result, the amplitude of its fluctuations was slightly greater than the predicted 12.22-114.44. With that, USD/JPY once again finished the week exactly where it had started – at 113.80; for two weeks in a row, the experts insisted that USD/CHF should reach the 0.9800 support, which the pair finally did last Thursday. Forecast for Coming Week. Summing up the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as the forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said : in their forecasts for EUR/USD, 75% of the experts, graphical analysis and 100% of the indicators on H4 and D1 rely on the idea that the ‘magic’ of Mario Draghi’s words will last another week at least, and the pair will thus rise even more – to 1.1200-1.1240. Some of the more radical analysts suggest that it may even reach early February’s highs near 1.1350. As for the monthly forecast, almost the same 75% of the experts already speak about a drop to around 1.0800-1.1000. In the meantime, 1.1080 can be considered the strongest support level; the experts are unanimous about GBP/USD – 75% of them, supported by the indicators, believe that the pair should reach resistance at 1.4500. Graphical analysis elaborates that the pair will briefly stay at this level and, on breaking support at 1.4370, will first go down to 1.4250-1.4370 for some time and then drop more – to support at 1.4120. This scenario is backed by 65% of the analysts; there is no agreement among the experts nor the indicators regarding USD/JPY. About half of them are for a rise while the other half are for a fall. As a result, a sideways channel in a range from 111.00 to 114.50 with a 113.25 pivot point is probable. In the longer term, 60% of the analysts believe that the pair will move up to 117.00; 30% propose a drop to 110.00, and the rest 10% aren’t certain; the forecast for USD/CHF is 65% of the experts and 95% of the indicators suggest the pair’s fall to support at 0.9700-0.9750, after which it will resume breaking through 1.0000 and return to 1.0100-1.0200. Roman Butko, NordFX

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Forex Forecast for 7-11 March 2016 For starters, an overview of last week’s forecast: the forecast for EUR/USD can be counted as fulfilled. Executing the suggested monthly scenario, the pair first tried to break support at 1.0800, failed to do it and moved on to the weekly scenario. According to most experts’ predictions, the pair bounced upward and reached 1.1043 on Friday following the news from the USA; as for GBP/USD, those 50% of the experts who had voted for the pair’s rise were right. Although, graphical analysis on H1 supporting them had underestimated the bulls’ power – the pair quickly turned resistance at 1.3910 into support, rebounded off it and got to resistance at 1.4248 by the end of the week; the experts and the indicators were neutral in their forecasts for USD/JPY and were quite right. The pair finished the week exactly at the same level it had started from. With a little tolerance, graphical analysis was also correct setting the boundaries of the side channel as 112.55 and 114.50; the experts suggested that on reaching the key level of 1.0000, USD/CHF would drop to 0.9800. Graphical analysis agreed elaborating that support could be 100 points higher and proved right – after going down, the pair never managed to drop below a 0.9880-0.9910 resistance zone. Forecast for Coming Week. Generalizing the views of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on various types of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said : the experts are surprisingly unanimous about EUR/USD this time. Most of them (65%) vote for a downtrend both on the weekly and monthly intervals. Graphical analysis on H1 and H4 agrees with them, clarifying that the pair should first descend to around 1.0910, after which it can bounce back to the current level of 1.1010 and enter a sideways trend for some time. Graphical analysis and the indicators on D1 show larger fluctuations – a fall to 1.0710 and a rise to last February’s high of 1.1340; there’s unanimity among the analysts regarding GBP/USD. On the weekly and monthly intervals, 60% of them vote for a fall, 30% for a sideways trend and only 10% for a rise. It’s obviously a different story with the indicators – on H1, all of them point to a rise; on H4, their number is 83% and it’s just 50% on D1. Graphical analysis draws a 1.4070-1.4375 side channel whereas first, the pair may fluctuate in a narrower range from 1.4150 to 1.4250; according to the indicators on all timeframes and graphical analysis on H4, USD/JPY will continue its sideways trend within 113.00-114.50 at the beginning of the week. Only about 20% of the analysts support this. Their overwhelming majority believes that the pair should rise and try to reach ​​116.00-116.50 while just one analyst expects another fall to support at 111.00; most experts (55%) stick with the view that USD/CHF should make it to support at 0.9800 after all. Then it should reverse upwards, break the defence line of 1.0000 and return to 1.0100-1.0200 within a month. Graphical analysis agrees with this overall, adjusting support 50 points up at 0.9850. Roman Butko, NordFX

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Forex Forecast for 29 February - 4 March 2016 First, a review of last week’s forecast: the vast majority of the analysts and graphical analysis on D1 predicted a fall for EUR/USD, which happened, and the pair shed more than 200 points during the week; the prediction of 40% of the experts and graphical analysis that GBP/USD should bounce down from resistance at 1.4400 proved right. However, under the influence of the news about the UK’s EU membership referendum, instead of entering a sideways trend, the pair easily broke support at 1.4200 and crashed, finishing the week around the lows of 2001 and 2009; the forecast for USD/JPY panned out almost 100%. According to it, the pair was supposed to go down to support at 110.70, then shoot up to 112.55 and then even higher, ultimately targeting 115.00. In reality, the pair fell to 111.04, reversed upward, tested resistance at 112.55, broke through it on the second try, turning it into support, and soared up to 114.00; graphical analysis on H4 and the indicators on H4 and D1 were right about USD/CHF moving in a sideways channel for some time. At the same time, in line with the general trend to regain its position above 1.0000, the pair made several attempts to break through the top boundary of the channel, and it was able to consolidate just above 0.9960 by Friday evening. Forecast for Coming Week. Generalizing the opinions of several dozen analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said : the forecast for EUR/USD for March remains unchanged – first, the pair should break through support at 1.0800 and then at 1.0700, reach the bottom around 1.0500 and try to recover losses by returning to the current level of 1.0930. This scenario is supported by 54% of the experts, 90% of the indicators and graphical analysis on D1. As for the coming week, 70% of the analysts expect the pair to bounce up and temporarily return to 1.1066-1.1150. The remaining experts are split evenly – 15% for a fall and 15% for a sideways trend; all the indicators on H4 and D1 point downward for GBP/USD. The analysts’ opinions are divided, with the bulls having an edge – 50% vote for a rise and 40% for a drop. According to graphical analysis on H4 and D1, in the next few weeks, the pair will still try to reach the low of 2009 at 1.3500, after which it will return to resistance at 1.4080. With this said, graphical analysis on H1 elaborates that before going downward, the pair may rise a bit and reach 1.3910; in their attempt to predict USD/JPY’s movement, both experts and indicators are quite neutral, with somewhat bullish sentiment. Graphical analysis agrees with them overall – USD/JPY should first rise to 114.50 (or even to 115.00) and only then go down to support at 112.55; as for USD/CHF, 65% of the experts tend to believe that after reaching the key level of 1.0000, the pair will rebound to another strong level of 0.9800 and only then move up again to 1.0200-1.0300. This is echoed by the indicators and graphical analysis, the latter drawing support 100 points higher at 0.9900. Roman Butko, NordFX

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