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Generalized Forex Forecast for 09 - 13 May 2016 First, a review of last week’s predictions : As for the forecast for EUR/USD, this pair succeeded to meet expectations of all experts. All of their forecasts turned out to be correct - those, which predicted its rise (from Monday to Tuesday, the pair rose to the level of 1.1616), the ones which predicted its drop (the pair afterwards went down to support at 1.1385), and –the ones predicted its sideways trend - due to fluctuations the pair returned almost to the same level it had started the week from. Such a mixed behaviour of the pair, as noted above, was largely predetermined by the last week’s release of a series of economic data points of a different trend from Europe and the USA; as expected, these releases should influence the behaviour of virtually all USD pairs, and that did not allow analysts to reach a consensus particularly in regard to the future of GBP/USD. As a result, the pair largely made the same movement as EUR/USD, and, after rising earlier in the week, it showed a steady fall in the latter half of the week, returning to the benchmark for the whole year of 2016 - to support / resistance zone of around 1.4400 ÷ 1.4500; there was no consensus among experts about the future of USD/JPY either. As a result, the pair held onto the side channel, reflecting the behaviour of EUR/USD and wrapping up the week virtually at the same level of 107.00 whereat it had consolidated last week; as often happens, USD/CHF also tried to mirror the behaviour of EUR/USD, but nonetheless it fully met expectations of both analysts and graphical analysis predicting its attempt to get closer to the level of 0.9800. The pair, however, failed to reach this high, but due to its impressive surge upward it got closer to the target and reached the mark of 0.9728. Forecast for Upcoming Week Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested : similar to the last week, the experts' opinions about future of EUR/USD are split almost equally - one third of analysts are for the rise of the pair to the zone of 1.1730 ÷ 1.1800, one third are for its fall towards the support of 1.1200, and another third - for a sideways trend with pivot point of 1.1400. The opinions about indicators are also split - 60% on H4 vote for the pair's fall, and 75% on D1 are for its rise. If we focus on the graphical analysis, there is a prevalence of bearish trends here, according to which the pair must first go down to the first support zone of 1.1340, and then, after breaking through it, move 100 points lower. The local bottom of the current month is at 1.1000, which should be followed by a return to the pivot point of February - May at the level of 1.1280; but with regard to the behaviour of GBP/USD, the majority of analysts (70%), as well as indicators and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 unanimously vote for the continuation of its declining. Target is at 1.4250 ÷ 1.4300, which should be followed by a bounce upwards to the last week figures within 1.4430 ÷ 1.4500; USD/JPY. Here, according to experts, indicators and graphical analysis, we should expect the sideways movement of the pair within 105.50 ÷ 108.00. And, the pair is very likely to rise to the upper boundary of the range, bouncing off which it should make another attempt to break through the support of 105.50 and go down first to the zone of 104.00, and then to the lows of spring and summer of 2014 at the level of 102.00. However, such a movement can take from several weeks to a month; as for the last pair of our review - USD/CHF - everything is just as it was - both 80% of experts and 85% of indicators and graphical analysis on D1 continue to insist on the pair striving to consolidate above the level of 0.9800. As already mentioned, the main resistance in this case will be at the level of 0.9900. The main support is 200 points lower - 0.9700. Roman Butko, NordFX

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Generalized Forex Forecast for 2-6 May 2016 First, a review of last week’s predictions : graphical analysis and the indicators on D1 were 100% right in their forecast for EUR/USD. According to them, the pair was supposed to bounce off support at 1.1200 and move on to resistance at 1.1450. In fact, the pair started from 1.1217 on Monday and completed the week at 1.1451; defying the forecasts of most analysts who all of the past month insisted on GBP/USD’s move to last February’s lows, the pair continued its upswing, broke through resistance at 1.4450 and quickly reached last February’s high of 1.4670; the USD/JPY pair fully confirmed the predictions of graphical analysis and the experts who believed that the pair would bounce off resistance at 112.00, go down to support at 110.60 and even further to 107.70. Due to the decisions of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan on interest rates, USD/JPY not only met but actually exceeded the expectations and was just short of 100.90-105.30, i.e. the sideways channel of 2014; in the forecast for USD/CHF graphical analysis on D1 indicated that 0.9800 would become insurmountable resistance, the pair would bounce off it and go down to support at 0.9500. It did happen – USD/CHF consistently moved down all week long and reached the weekly low of 0.9567 on Friday. Forecast for Upcoming Week Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested : the experts’ opinions about EUR/USD are split almost equally – 45% are for a rise to 1.1550-1.1650, another 45% are for a fall to the levels of 1.1200-1.1300, and the remaining 10% are for a further sideways trend. Graphical analysis on W1 and MN shows clearly that EUR/USD is at the top boundary of the horizontal channel within which the pair has been moving since January 2015. Thus, 1.1450 may become strong resistance, bouncing off which the pair will move to the central line of the channel at 1.1000. It should be noted that the coming week is full of important economic events, including the release of US employment data, which may have a significant impact on virtually all USD pairs; the analysts differ about GBP/USD – 40% are for a fall, 40% are for a rise to 1.5000 whereas 20% and graphical analysis on H4 are for a sideways trend within 1.4500-1.4660. In the longer term, 75% of the experts believe the pair will go down while graphical analysis elaborates that the main support will be at 1.4200; there is no consensus among the experts regarding USD/JPY either. As for the indicators, all of them obviously point down after the pair’s sharp fall. With this, according to graphical analysis on D1, one can expect the pair to bounce to 109.00-110.00 and then try to reach the low of 105.00 again; about 60% of the experts and graphical analysis on D1 believe that USD/CHF should make another attempt at consolidating above 0.9800. The main resistance will be at 0.9900 in this case. However, graphical analysis on H4 indicates that this can happen only after the pair rebounds from support around 0.9520-0.9500. Roman Butko, NordFX

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Generalized Forex Forecast for 25-29 April 2016 First, a review of last week’s forecas: D1 and W1 charts show that EUR/USD continues to move within the ascending channel that started last December. As expected by 50% of the analysts and graphical analysis on H4 and D1, the pair aimed at the upper boundary of the channel right from the start of the week, quickly reached resistance at 1.1350 and then went down sharply to strong support at 1.1200, which is clearly visible in the monthly timeframe; despite the fact that most analysts predicted that GBP/USD would gravitate toward last February’s lows, the pair fulfilled the forecast of the remaining 15% of the analysts and went to the upper boundary of the side channel of 1.4050-1.4450, within which it has been moving for the sixth weeks in a row; the forecast for USD/JPY was fulfilled 100% . It was suggested that as a result of the upward rebound that began 11 April, the pair should reach at least 111.00 over the past week. Only last Friday, though, the pair soared, broke through the resistance of 111.00 with a mighty heave and stopped at 111.76; the forecast for USD/CHF panned out – a further upward trend with the target of 0.9800, which happened Friday night. The pair was just 4 points short of it, making it to 0.9796. Forecast for Coming Week Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be predicted : according to 85% of the experts and 90% of the indicators on H1, the EUR/USD pair should continue to move down to 1.1100-1.1150. On the other hand, graphical analysis and the indicators on D1 reckon that next week the pair will be moving in a 1.1200-1.1450 sideways channel with support at 1.1200. In the longer term, the pair should break through the lower boundary of the channel in early May and rather quickly reach a local bottom of 1.0900; even though GBP/USD disappointed most experts last week, the main forecast for the pair stands – moving down. This is backed by 75% of the experts who believe that the pair should bounce off the upper boundary of the side channel of 1.4050-1.4450 and go down to its bottom boundary in the near future. Graphical analysis on D1 points out that after breaking through it, GBP/USD will still reach February’s lows around 1.3850. However, it may happen no earlier than the first or second decade of May; it is obvious that all indicators point upward for USD/JPY. However, over 80% of the analysts and graphical analysis on D1 and H4 strongly disagree and believe that after bouncing off resistance at 112.00, the pair should go down to support at 110.60. These two levels will determine USD/JPY’s movement in the near future, after which the pair will once again attempt to reach the bottom of 107.70; about 70% of the experts and the indicators on H4 and D1 believe that USD/CHF will consolidate above 0.9800 for some time. The main resistance in this case will be 0.9900. Graphical analysis on D1 gives an alternative view – the level of 0.9800 will remain insurmountable resistance, bouncing off which the pair will go down to the 0.9500 support. Since the pair is around 0.9800 now, it’ll be clear shortly which scenario will play out. Roman Butko, NordFX

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